# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2008, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/161 "2008-06-21T22:14:08Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] Elvis has been quiet recently. You okay, man?. [/QUOTE] No, busy. Good to see that some of you have learned about outlying data points, though. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2008, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/162 "2008-06-21T22:21:36Z")
[QUOTE=Measure for Measure] But Ray Fair’s model doesn’t use any polling data. Instead, it measures the historical relationship between various measures of the economy and share of the popular vote. [/quote] That’s using actual votes, which is the best “polling data” of all. Except when it’s historical, and the premise of the argument \*denigrating \* the use of polling data is that this year is somehow different. > [@](#): > > Apparently, the fit of the model is surprisingly good. You haven’t checked yourself? :dubious: What p values does it have for which scenarios? > [@](#): > > But what I was getting at is that May-June polling data has to be treated with care if one is to predict behavior in November. Sure. But one has to be far, far more careful about proclaiming that the reality is going to be the opposite of what that polling data says. Far more careful than certain posters here have been, to be sure. > [@](#): > > So I prefer to have it filtered by a specialist operation such as CQ, Charlie Cook, Sabato or whomever. I prefer not to have anybody with an agenda, even one they themselves might not be aware of, do any filtering of my information at all. You never get to find out what their underlying assumptions are, much less question them, if you refuse to ask. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2008, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/163 "2008-06-21T22:26:19Z")
[QUOTE=Pleonast] McCain is forked. Evidence: George Will on ABC’s _This Week_ [/QUOTE] The same George Will who’s responsible for the crap about China drilling for oil off the Cuban coast? Time for the Old Fools Home for him. He can have Pierre Salinger’s room. Listen politely to his incoherent ramblings on Visiting Day if you must, but don’t take him seriously. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/164 "2008-06-22T00:23:49Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Good to see that some of you have learned about outlying data points, though. [/QUOTE] Elvis, honey, sweetie, we knew. You just weren’t listening. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/165 "2008-06-22T00:43:22Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] Elvis, honey, sweetie, we knew. You just weren’t listening. [/QUOTE] We have a winnah! 😃 Oh - welcome back, **Elvis**! I’d say we missed you, except… 😛 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/166 "2008-06-22T01:10:01Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] Elvis, honey, sweetie, we knew. You just weren’t listening. [/QUOTE] “Listening” to what, all those gleeful Hillary’s-forked-now! posts every time a new outlying poll came out with Obama way ahead? Or are you saying you knew you were full of shit even then? Maybe we can see if **RTF** understands the difference between data and process yet. How’s that coming, sport? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/167 "2008-06-22T01:16:41Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Maybe we can see if **RTF** understands the difference between data and process yet. How’s that coming, sport? [/QUOTE] Oh, are you bringing up that post of mine where you completely misunderstood what I was referring to, then never responded after I cleared up your confusion? That’s how it’s coming, sport. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/168 "2008-06-22T01:21:02Z")
You showed you had no fucking idea about the very basic concepts, and that there was no point in trying to explain it further. There still isn’t, obviously and disappointingly. You do NOT want to hold that up for examination by anyone, trust me. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/169 "2008-06-22T01:27:13Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] You showed you had no fucking idea about the very basic concepts, and that there was no point in trying to explain it further. There still isn’t, obviously and disappointingly. You do NOT want to hold that up for examination by anyone, trust me. [/QUOTE] You know, it’s much easier to say, “I could beat your silly argument every which way if I wanted to,” than to actually do so. But congratulations on being able to string the sentence together where you say you could do that. I’m proud of you, boy. :D:D:D:D:D ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/170 "2008-06-22T01:31:25Z")
As I just said … :rolleyes: There are many fine introductory statistics texts available in your local library. When you’ve bothered to open one, and become minimally qualified to discuss the meaning of polls or even data, do let us all know. If you’d rather just post more ignorance-based taunts instead, this is not the right forum. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/171 "2008-06-22T02:19:23Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] As I just said … :rolleyes: [/QUOTE] More “you’re wrong, but the proof won’t fit into this space” nonsense. Keep it coming. 🙂 Oh yeah: feel free to Pit me, if you think this dialogue belongs there. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/172 "2008-06-22T03:08:14Z")
It’s not that “the proof won’t fit in this space”, in fact it already exists in the thread you’re astoundingly holding up as a positive example of your “contributions” here. Rather, it’s that you lack the basic vocabulary to receive the explanations that I, and others, already provided you, even simplified and elementary as they were. There’s really no excuse, you know - the basics of statistics, and even many advanced concepts, can be picked up in a few hours by someone with the motivation and aptitude. If you wish to remain \*proud \* of that flourish of ignorance nonetheless, you certainly have that right. It’s still not advisable, though. (Time for another “Yeah, well, you just _suck_!” reply in **RTF** ’s typical style …) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2008, 9:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/173 "2008-06-22T09:50:04Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] It’s not that “the proof won’t fit in this space”, in fact it already exists in the thread you’re astoundingly holding up as a positive example of your “contributions” here. [/quote] “We rebutted that point before your post, but I’m not even going to point to where.” That’s another familiar dodge. Like I said, keep 'em coming. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2008, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/174 "2008-06-25T00:13:44Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Fifteen points? Outlier. _Way_ outlier. My too-good-to-be-true-ometer is buzzing like mad, and whenever I hit the reset button, it just starts buzzing again. [/QUOTE] When it’s [two in a row](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/) does your buzzer ring louder or start to ring true? > [@](#): > > According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama’s lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent. > > The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead. ---
**Author:** ![TequilaSunrise](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5daacb/32.png) [@TequilaSunrise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TequilaSunrise)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2008, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/175 "2008-06-25T00:49:34Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] When it’s two in a row does your buzzer ring louder or start to ring true? [/QUOTE] From the linked article > [@](#): > > “Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said. > > “Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June,” Holland noted. I’m not sure these numbers predict anything much yet. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2008, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/176 "2008-06-25T02:12:25Z")
[QUOTE=TequilaSunrise] I’m not sure these numbers predict anything much yet. [/QUOTE] Maybe not, but **DSeid** was rebutting my ‘outlier’ remarks. And you’ve got to admit, he’s got a point. (OK, **I** have to admit that. :)) I don’t know _what_ to make of the polls, quite honestly. Through the period of the Newsweek and L.A. Times polls, the Rasmussen tracker has had Obama up by 3-7%, and Obama’s been up in the Gallup tracker by 2-3%. Fox and USA Today/Gallup, overlapping with Newsweek, had Obama up by 4 and 6 points, respectively. It’s as if we have two alternate universes overlaid on one another, with two polls in one universe, and the others in the other universe. I’m sure it’ll all shake out eventually, but it’s weird right now. ---
**Author:** ![TequilaSunrise](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5daacb/32.png) [@TequilaSunrise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TequilaSunrise)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2008, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/177 "2008-06-25T02:36:02Z")
Two outliers maybe be better than one, but that doesn’t mean they’re a trend yet 🙂 I think the only thing the two polls mean is that liberal political junkies have some more things to talk about. If you want to know anything of value about how a campaign or candidate is doing you have to look at a lot more statistics than poll numbers, and read into how the local population is being county by county by state by state. (I’ve been quoted by [bold]RTFirefly[/bold]! I feel honored) ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2008, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/178 "2008-06-25T03:16:06Z")
[QUOTE=CNN] “Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said. [/QUOTE] In other words June polls are utterly worthless, i don’t think McCain has much of a chance but lets not get overconfident over useless polls. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2008, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/179 "2008-06-25T03:19:50Z")
Yes, **TS** , I am very aware, and have explicitly stated many times, that the polls will surge and tighten back and forth, and are a poor indicator of results this far away … but Nate of [fivethirtyeight](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/why-obama-isnt-like-dukakis.html) has a very good point. Part of those swings you’ve referenced was the result of the fact that the GOP was able to change the public’s perception of the Dem nominee from a moderate to a liberal and thus drive support away - but Obama already _is_ perceived as a liberal, and is this far ahead anyway. There is unlikely to be a swing away because of that factor anyway. Also McCain’s convention bounce will be muted some by Ron Paul and Barr getting some press. Meanwhile Obama’s convention will have nothing to distract from a coordinated media blitz. Obama is competitive in many states that he may not win, that he doesn’t need to win, but that McCain will now need to defend and stretch thin doing. Forks are still on their napkins but those of us who hunger for an Obama win are liking the finger food being served for appetizers. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2008, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/180 "2008-06-25T04:27:01Z")
Clearly McCain needs the nuclear option. The Colbert Bump. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=10)