# Is military action against Iran an inevitability? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 3, 2011, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726 "2011-11-03T09:40:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/21 "2011-11-04T01:46:55Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > **Back in the 20s we had a war plan to invade Canada** -military plans and actual war are two different things. Really??? That seems… kind of funny, actually. Anyway, I’m going to pass the article in the OP off as fearmongering. I’ll believe it as true when I see some kind of military build-up along the Iranian border, or a complete breakdown in relations with Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/22 "2011-11-04T01:52:21Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > But this time, it’s for serious. [It](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/11/hillary-clinton-iran-sanctions) [isn’t](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/iran.israelandthepalestinians1) [like](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/jul/16/usa.iran) [the Guardian](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/sep/16/iran.israel) [to be](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/10/iran.usa) [alarmist](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/mar/14/iran.israel) [on](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/jan/18/usa.iran) [Iran.](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/mar/06/iran.unitednations) So this time, it must be true. ---
**Author:** ![Illuminatiprimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/illuminatiprimus/32/11520_2.png) [@Illuminatiprimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Illuminatiprimus)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 8:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/23 "2011-11-04T08:34:16Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Oh, are we About To Attack Iran Tomorrow, again? > These sort of folks have predicted, what, twelve of the last zero invasions? > > But this time, it’s for serious. > [@Ravenman](#): > > [It](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/11/hillary-clinton-iran-sanctions) [isn’t](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/iran.israelandthepalestinians1) [like](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/jul/16/usa.iran) [the Guardian](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/sep/16/iran.israel) [to be](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/10/iran.usa) [alarmist](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/mar/14/iran.israel) [on](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/jan/18/usa.iran) [Iran.](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/mar/06/iran.unitednations) > > So this time, it must be true. This is very true, in fact I had thought myself after reading the article “haven’t we heard this before?”. It seems to be part of the diplomatic game that that is played with Iran, just keep suggesting that _maybe_ you’ll invade and it’ll keep them on their toes. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/24 "2011-11-04T23:28:05Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Really??? That seems… kind of funny, actually. Yep: [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War\_Plan\_Red](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red) ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/25 "2011-11-04T23:37:00Z")
> [@Illuminatiprimus](#): > > It seems to be part of the diplomatic game that that is played with Iran, just keep suggesting that _maybe_ you’ll invade and it’ll keep them on their toes. Which sounds like a great way to _encourage_ them to build nukes. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/26 "2011-11-04T23:37:51Z")
If there were an Arab+ Spring revolutionary outbreak in Iran, it would of course be very tempting for the U.S. to support it, as in Libya, and if air support alone proved insufficient, tempting to go further. But I don’t think this Admin is going to initiate any action against Iran otherwise. From all I’ve read about Iran, if it were to come down to a real street-fighting revolution, the victory of the anti-government side would be no foregone conclusion. A large minority, at least, still believe very zealously in the Islamic Republic and everything it stands for, and probably would be eager to fight for it as militia backing up the regular army (and the Revolutionary Guard Corps), if necessary. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2011, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/27 "2011-11-05T01:57:52Z")
[QUOTE=Der Trihs] Which sounds like a great way to encourage them to build nukes. [/QUOTE] It’s the same vicious cycle that you generally see in dictatorial governments. Start off by being a threat. When others respond to your threat then ratchet up the rhetoric. When they respond some more, ratchet it up more. When they start to become really concerned then threaten to build nuclear weapons. As they become more alarmed then take things to the brink. Rinse and repeat. Keeps the peasants toeing the line and properly in fear of external attack. See, Iran doesn’t actually have to be threatening OR build nuclear weapons. They could easily just join the international community of nations. They choose not to…or at least their leaders choose not too. So, since they choose to be the way they are, their own twisted logic dictates that, indeed, they ‘need’ nuclear weapons, to fend off The West and The Evil US from viciously attacking them due to their own actions. It’s the exact same logic that has made North Korea the vibrant and joyful nation it is today…and exactly the same logic that pushed them to build nuclear weapons and periodically fuck with South Korea, playfully sink their warships and shell their civilians. All in the name of fun. Catch-22 thinking is what these folks do best…and, of course, you are there to cheer them on. Sadly, we haven’t attacked them yet. I know you’ve been ready to pat yourself on the back at your powers of prediction for years now, as you wait in joyful hope for the coming of the vicious, unprovoked and unjustified show of naked aggression from The West and most of all from The Great Satan, the USA. Could happen, given their actions. And you know what they say about broken clocks, right? -XT ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2011, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/28 "2011-11-05T02:30:24Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > It’s the same vicious cycle that you generally see in dictatorial governments. Start off by being a threat. When others respond to your threat then ratchet up the rhetoric. When they respond some more, ratchet it up more. When they start to become really concerned then threaten to build nuclear weapons. As they become more alarmed then take things to the brink. Rinse and repeat. Keeps the peasants toeing the line and properly in fear of external attack. > > See, Iran doesn’t actually have to be threatening OR build nuclear weapons. They could easily just join the international community of nations. Don’t be silly; we were their enemy long before the present government existed. They’ve tried on occasion to warm up relations and we’ve rebuffed them. We don’t want then to “join the community of nations”; we want them as a puppet or bogeyman. And of the two, they prefer the latter. > [@](#): > > Sadly, we haven’t attacked them yet. I know you’ve been ready to pat yourself on the back at your powers of prediction for years now, as you wait in joyful hope for the coming of the vicious, unprovoked and unjustified show of naked aggression from The West and most of all from The Great Satan, the USA. We support terrorism against them, and used Iraq as a weapon against them. And of course there’s the Shah. We’ve been their enemy for long than I’ve been alive. ---
**Author:** ![ProbablyProcrastinating](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/57b2e6/32.png) [@ProbablyProcrastinating](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ProbablyProcrastinating)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2011, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/29 "2011-11-05T03:34:14Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > So why is Netanyahu frantically beating the war drums? > Israel cannot attack Iran (and be assured of destroying Iranian nuclear capabilities). Only if the USA can be prsuaded to attack, can there be any chance of success. > I think the idea of the US launching ANOTHER ME war is beyond crazy-we would have to be insane to attempt it. Netanyahu has done stranger things. I think that under Obama, you won’t see war with Iran. First of all, not only liberal advisors, but most advisors, suggest it’s a loss. We know much, much more about Iran than we knew about Iraq because of the massive diaspora. And the more you know, the worse the idea seems. If the Republicans come in, you know there’s nothing they love more than to spend money on guns, so who knows? ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/30 "2011-11-07T16:06:23Z")
> [@ProbablyProcrastinating](#): > > Netanyahu has done stranger things. > > I think that under Obama, you won’t see war with Iran. . . If the Republicans come in, you know there’s nothing they love more than to spend money on guns, so who knows? Except we do know. There are at least two zombie threads going back to the Bush administration arguing that war with Iran was imminent. (I thought this was one of those at first.) And surprisingly enough . . . there was no interest to fight then, the arguments of Der and the like notwithstanding. But you can’t prove a negative, so we’ll continue to have threads like this. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/31 "2011-11-07T16:12:46Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > [It](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/11/hillary-clinton-iran-sanctions) [isn’t](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/iran.israelandthepalestinians1) [like](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/jul/16/usa.iran) [the Guardian](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/sep/16/iran.israel) [to be](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/10/iran.usa) [alarmist](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/mar/14/iran.israel) [on](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/jan/18/usa.iran) [Iran.](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/mar/06/iran.unitednations) > > So this time, it must be true. Bravo! Well done! ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/32 "2011-11-07T16:39:13Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Back in the 20s we had a war plan to invade Canada-military plans and actual war are two different things. Since nukes hadn’t been invented yet, I wonder what type of weapon they were planning to use. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/33 "2011-11-07T16:43:44Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Since nukes hadn’t been invented yet, I wonder what type of weapon they were planning to use. Exploding hockey pucks. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/34 "2011-11-07T17:36:54Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Just like we wouldn’t be crazy enough to invade Iraq over nonexistent WMDs, right? I’m sure the Iranians would find your insistence that they are perfectly safe _quite_ reassuring. Really bad analogy. The U.S. was led by a group of Neo-Cons who had already put together a plan, backed by rather silly assumptions, to conquer Iraq in the years prior to the election that put them in power. Obama has never indicated a desire to go conquering anyone and none of the current Republican candidates have expressed toward Iran anything resembling the ideas expressed in the Wolfowitz term paper or the PNAC letter to President Clinton calling for invasion based on Wolfi’s term paper. Without that sort of ideology floating around Washington, Iraq would have been safe enough from us and, lacking that sort of current ideology in both political parties, Iran has no reason to fear actions unless they initiate something. The U.S. is not some sort of evil machine that acts on its own; it is a country with factions and real people have to control those actions in a real political environment. It may be fun to simply splash “_U.S.=Evil_” in any thread, but it has no bearing on reality if it ignores the actual motivations and actions of the people and politicians who guide those actions. ---
**Author:** ![thelabdude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/dc4da7/32.png) [@thelabdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelabdude)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/35 "2011-11-07T17:38:46Z")
I don’t have the time, but is is going to be 21 December 2012. ---
**Author:** ![Zyanthia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Zyanthia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zyanthia)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/36 "2011-11-07T17:54:17Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Exploding hockey pucks. Not beer bottle molotov cocktails? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/37 "2011-11-07T18:14:26Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Really bad analogy. > > The U.S. was led by a group of Neo-Cons who had already put together a plan, backed by rather silly assumptions, to conquer Iraq in the years prior to the election that put them in power. Obama has never indicated a desire to go conquering anyone and none of the current Republican candidates have expressed toward Iran anything resembling the ideas expressed in the Wolfowitz term paper or the PNAC letter to President Clinton calling for invasion based on Wolfi’s term paper. > > Without that sort of ideology floating around Washington, Iraq would have been safe enough from us and, lacking that sort of current ideology in both political parties, Iran has no reason to fear actions unless they initiate something. The U.S. is not some sort of evil machine that acts on its own; it is a country with factions and real people have to control those actions in a real political environment. It may be fun to simply splash “_U.S.=Evil_” in any thread, but it has no bearing on reality if it ignores the actual motivations and actions of the people and politicians who guide those actions. While I’ll agree that Der Trihs knowledge and understanding of Iran is quite lacking, I’ll agree with his larger point that you can’t underestimate how terrified Iran is of the West in General and the US and the UK in particular. Furthermore, one of the most dangerous things we can do is assume that “they” somehow have a better understanding of “us” than “we” do of “them”. Many have commented on just how little many of America’s leaders and opinion-makers understand about the Middle East. What doesn’t get commented on as much is how greatly so many of the Middle East’s leaders and opinion-makers misunderstand the US. Take this clip from the main Iranian TV station detailing how “Senior White House official John McCain” and “Jewish tycoon” George Soros are conspiring to destroy Iran. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL9MaZQORfI](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL9MaZQORfI) Iranians definitely believe in what their Uncle Napoleon tells them. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/38 "2011-11-07T20:20:02Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > What doesn’t get commented on as much is how greatly so many of the Middle East’s leaders and opinion-makers misunderstand the US. **Why** do they misunderstand it? I mean, not all of them are being lied to by somebody else, are they? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/39 "2011-11-07T21:35:32Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > The U.S. was led by a group of Neo-Cons who had already put together a plan, backed by rather silly assumptions, to conquer Iraq in the years prior to the election that put them in power. Obama has never indicated a desire to go conquering anyone and none of the current Republican candidates have expressed toward Iran anything resembling the ideas expressed in the Wolfowitz term paper or the PNAC letter to President Clinton calling for invasion based on Wolfi’s term paper. > > Without that sort of ideology floating around Washington, Iraq would have been safe enough from us and, lacking that sort of current ideology in both political parties, Iran has no reason to fear actions unless they initiate something. Nonsense; we’ve been acting against Iran since\* long\* before Bush and the neocons. Obama probably won’t order a ground invasion; but he isn’t remotely shy about the indiscriminate use of air power, and he constantly sucks up to the Republicans. I doubt he’d hesitate at killing thousands of Iranians to try to placate the Republicans, or to “look tough on Iran”. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726/40 "2011-11-07T21:57:23Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I doubt he’d hesitate at killing thousands of Iranians to try to placate the Republicans, or to “look tough on Iran”. Not frightened to embrace hyperbole at least. Der, forgive me. It’s been a long day at the office and I’m a bit lazy right now. How many years have you been predicting that the invasion of Iran is imminent? I know it’s been going on at least five or six years, because you ‘knew’ that Bush was going to invade. Do you have a more exact count? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-military-action-against-iran-an-inevitability/601726.md?page=3)