[[I am not sure about the A + B part though. The newspapers said naught about it too. Are they supressing information…? Hmm.]]
The spread of this virus is being pretty thoroughly tracked, I’d say. There aren’t cases just springing up randomly. People ARE traveling out of the areas that are seeing most of the cases, though, so we’re bound to see it spread. You can also just go to www.cdc.gov if you want to learn more about it.
As an epidemiologist, I am reading about this with interest, and hoping a vaccine is developed soon. But I am still baffled by how frightened some people get about something that is really a farfetched risk for them right now compared to a lot of other things.
We’re in the thick of an epidemic around Toronto, which is having a big time effect on my local hospital and my emergency room. Daily epidemiology updates from the Ontario Commissioner of Health, thousands in quarantine, the whole province on Code Orange. Have to wear gloves, goggles, mask and gown during my whole ER shift, and likely will for the next three weeks. Elective surgeries and operations all cancelled. It’s a big deal here.
SARS is pretty virulent and infectious, a 4% death rate is still a concern. Most of the 111 cases in Ontario have been linked to the index case. Four people are dead, seven are intubated (and doing poorly), eight are health care workers. Supportive treatment with steroids seems to help, but ribavarine probably does not.
We have about 20 cases currently admitted which I suspect is the most in the country.
One of the big problems is that docs are now only permitted to work at one (or maybe two, there is some ambiguity) hospitals to avoid spreading the disease. This means that the pool of MD’s we can call on for things such as night call is vanishing. Exhaustion is a real threat. Further, three local hospitals are closed, or essentially closed, because of gross contamination (ie. previously unrecognized cases have contaminated them and their personnel). This means the remaining hospitals are getting busier just doing the routine emergency stuff, let alone the SARS.
The number of confirmed cases has risen dramatically in the last 48 hrs. I expect it to get much worse since the most recent contamination (by a doctor who came to work sick!) occurred at one of our biggest teaching hospitals (populated by medical trainees who, up until today, were freely travelling among a number of other hospitals).
I disagree with Podkayne, Urban Ranger. Perhaps TTT should have done a better job explaining the questionability of his/her information but the only way to learn things is to put them forward. Then someone will speak to the matter who knows the answer. Otherwise nothing will be said and the person continues living in ignorance.
as a layman i am guessing that this is because people are usually icky about ‘catching’ diseases from others. now there is this new sort of pneumonia disease which people understand is bad (pneumonia that is) where you can catch it if you happen to be in the same room as someone caught with it, or worst, just being in a room where a ‘super infector’ had visited; with no outward clue of danger at all.
this is opposed to the other icky diseases where to catch it you’ll have to have sex first / get a blood transfusion / get some stranger’s blood on your wounds / eat some infected animals / contact with strange animals / avoid powdery substances or whatever. add to the confusion some nation’s tight lip policy about this and uncertainty about how exactly it is transmitted.
that said i don’t actually see panic - the schools maybe closed but all the children are out to play and there are crowds everywhere i’m going out now.
Well, some of the TV reports on the disease have been pretty sensationalistic. ABC News last night ran a segment showing crowds in Hong Kong all wearing facemasks and hospitals in Canada which they said had been sealed off due to the disease. They gave several cases of people passing through the area who (they claimed) spread the disease to dozens of others and ended on an ominous note about how no one knows how many “carriers” are out there. If I was depending only on what I saw on TV, I would think this is just shy of being the next Black Plague. :eek:
On the other hand, both the Centers for Disease Control and World Health Organization web sites on the disease are pretty clear that the risk to most people is insignificant and the main threat seems to be to health care workers who are treating the patients and that threat seems to be dropping since they are starting to get some idea as to what they are dealing with.
So, the threat seems to be low but (as usual) the media seems to be blowing it out of proportion. That is probably what has so many people worked up about it.
Sorry, NoGoodNames. Toronto has had 111 cases, 4 fatalities as of yesterday. We’re talking with the Provincial Health Officers, Community Health Officers and provincial epidemiologists and infectious disease on a daily basis.
The risk in infected areas is NOT insignificant; even if your personal risk is low. There is no treatment for this ?coronavirus, and it is highly virulent and contagious.
I’m not sure which people you’re referring to here. I’m a resonably educated person, not typically prone to panic, but I’m watching this with a lot of interest. I’ve talked with my wife about when do we pull our kids out of school. We aren’t thinking of doing it yet, but if it gets “nearby” we will. On the other hand, we live in a diverse community, with many people with out-of-country contacts. It would only take one contact to bring it here. In Kindergarten and 2nd grade, where my kids are, colds and such spread very well, so It’s a serious concern. By the time it isn’t a “farfetched risk”, it may already be too late. Contrasting the (admittedly low) chance of a death in my family with the relatively minor effect of pulling my kids out of school, it’s not so clear cut that keeping them in school is the right choice, even now.
Watching this develop on the news, it seems to this layperson that this is fairly contageous (several people infected due to staying on the same floor of a hotel with an infected person stands out in my mind). I haven’t heard anything that suggests the spread is being contained. If I assume 10 percent of the US gets infected (to pull a number out of the air–is there any estimate on how many people might be expected to become infected?) and use the 4 percent fatality rate, that’s about 1 million dead in the US alone.
As I half-jokingly told my wife last night, maybe panic is the appropriate response here. But I’m not there yet.
I am not a medical doctor, or in the medical profession at all. No one here should listen to me. I’m just giving my reasoning for being concerned about this.
It’s the “residents of one particular housing development” that worries people. The family members of victims and medical staff were in close contact with the patient - that’s understandable. But to able to infect an entire housing block in a day or two show how dangerous that could be.
It’s not the situation that causing the panic. It’s the potential of the mayhem the virus could cause.
Don’t forget that the flu epidemic of 1918 killed 20 million people. No one thinks the average healthy Joe is at much risk, but it is indeed prudent for hospitals to be clamping down hard on this in areas with known cases. No one wants a pandemic, and virulent diseases without good treatment need to be contained.
ZenBeam, I still say at this point that your fears about SARS are exaggerated. Certainly there are good reasons for us to keep our eye on this. But there have been NO cases of SARS anywhere near where you live. If you want to protect your kids, don’t let them ride in cars.
i’m going out now.