# Is Myanmar (Burma) on the brink of a "Saffron Revolution"? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 25, 2007, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485 "2007-09-25T22:19:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2007, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/1 "2007-09-25T22:19:31Z")
The ruling military junta has cracked down hard on [previous protests](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8888_Uprising). But the [current round](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Burmese_anti-government_protests) is led by Buddhist monks, who have enormous social and moral prestige in that country. Will the government dare crack down on **them?** [Riot police have been sent in,](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/25/wburma225.xml) and a curfew declared, but the protestors say they won’t back down. There are now at least 100,000 marchers in the streets of Rangoon. [Bush just announced economic sanctions on the Myanmar government and its backers.](http://www.guardian.co.uk/burma/story/0,,2176876,00.html) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2007, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/2 "2007-09-25T23:21:16Z")
Wow, BG, thanks for the heads-up, I somehow missed it. The _Economist_ thinks that a crackdown is still the most likely outcome. As the protest widens to include many non-monks, it will just make it that much easier to come down hard on people who don’t have to kind of protection-by-moral-stature you mentioned the monks as having, and so it might not end up accomplishing much. Still, let’s hope it does. I’ll be in Malaysia (and, briefly, Singapore) in late December. If this thing is still happening then, I’ll try to find out what I can and report to you all then. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/3 "2007-09-26T00:08:09Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Will the government dare crack down on **them?** [/QUOTE] Probably. They did it in 1988, right? I believe it was the NY Times that reported - and it’s hard to say what’s actually happened over there - that the government has ordered robes and may be preparing to have agents pretend to be monks and act up in order to justify a crackdown. I hope the US sanctions and world attention help, but the country with the most influence on Myanmar is said to be China, and China doesn’t appear to care. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/4 "2007-09-26T01:02:11Z")
The Burmese junta – nasty thugs! – Are dissing Aung Suu Kyii We’ll help her out, altough it gets us Into World War III BURMA SAVE! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Dunawake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dunawake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunawake)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/5 "2007-09-26T02:23:50Z")
I wouldn’t put it past the Burmese government to do practically anything. Their control of media in the country is near total, and they showed little compunction in '88 regarding wholesale slaughter of protesters. ---
**Author:** ![Ready\_for\_my\_closeup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c37758/32.png) [@Ready\_for\_my\_closeup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ready_for_my_closeup)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 9:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/6 "2007-09-26T09:13:35Z")
According to the most recent reports the crackdown seems to have started. The riot police have started using tear gas, there has been shooting at the demonstrators and at least one monk has been killed. In addition, many opposition leaders have been arrested in the last 24 hours. I’m afraid this can get really ugly, I agree with\*\* Dunawake\*\* regarding the junta. It would probably be necessary for the major trading partners, especially China, to get involved in order to reign in the junta. So maybe some pressure on China might be in order. I think it’s essential that the international community keeps a close eye on the situation. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/7 "2007-09-26T10:38:06Z")
[QUOTE=Ready\_for\_my\_closeup] According to the most recent reports the crackdown seems to have started [/quote] [BBC link confirming this](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7013638.stm). This is going to get very nasty. ---
**Author:** ![blinkingblinking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ea5d25/32.png) [@blinkingblinking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blinkingblinking)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/8 "2007-09-26T11:09:06Z")
The Khmer Rouge killed many monks and put the rest to work in the fields. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/9 "2007-09-26T11:20:15Z")
I suspect that there’s going to be another Tiananmen/1988-style massacre. The other velvety revolutions have happened because the armed forces sided with the people against the government. This time, the SLORC (or whatever the bastards are calling themselves now) _are_ the government. As **Ready\_for\_my\_closeup** says, China is the key. We need to pressure our governments into pressuring China and ASEAN. Not that it’ll do much good. ---
**Author:** ![Ready\_for\_my\_closeup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c37758/32.png) [@Ready\_for\_my\_closeup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ready_for_my_closeup)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/10 "2007-09-26T11:37:44Z")
I’m thinking Tianamen square too, although I really hope I’m wrong. The people of Burma really do deserve a “velvet” revolution, but it looks highly unlikely at this point. China is still insisting that they won’t get involved in domestic affairs, but it might be possible to pressure them. My best guess would be to use the Olympics in some way, seems to be awfully important to the Chinese government that that one goes without a hitch. However, I’m very pessimistic about Burma, the junta seems to be the kind of despots who cling to power at the cost of everyone and everything else and they don’t seem to be easily swayed by outside pressures. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/11 "2007-09-26T12:27:47Z")
Interesting take from a friend of mine who has travelled throughout Burma several times (and whose dad was born there during British rule): > [@](#): > > Things have remained calm there for so long because the military have chucked huge wads [of cash] at the higher echelons of the Church, which then keep the masses in check. > > The fact that the monks are out and about is indicative of a major power struggle between the two powers. Think it will get worse before it gets better. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/12 "2007-09-26T13:11:15Z")
People inside Burma have been emailing the BBC and speaking to the BBC Burmese service. Some of these accounts are available [here](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7011884.stm). ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/13 "2007-09-26T13:28:34Z")
[Here](http://ko-htike.blogspot.com/) is a blog I found via BBC that is maintained by a London-based Burmese man called Ko Htike. He’s getting a lot of on-the-spot reportage, some of which is in English. There are lots of camera-phone pictures and videos. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/14 "2007-09-26T14:00:03Z")
[QUOTE=Ready\_for\_my\_closeup] So maybe some pressure on China might be in order. [/QUOTE] I think we have already learned many times over that nobody is in any position to put much pressure on China. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/15 "2007-09-26T15:53:46Z")
According to the [_Washington Post_](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/26/AR2007092600185.html?hpid=topnews) (midway through the article), Suu Kyii has been taken to prison, apparently to keep her out of this. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/16 "2007-09-26T16:01:41Z")
Very interesting how impartial the _[China Daily](http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/6272007.html)_ (source: Xinhua) is being over this. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/17 "2007-09-26T16:15:46Z")
[QUOTE=jjimm] Very interesting how impartial the _[China Daily](http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/6272007.html)_ (source: Xinhua) is being over this. [/QUOTE] Well, they don’t want their readers getting any **ideas,** now, do they? :dubious: From the above-linked _Washington Post_ article: > [@](#): > > Bush called on other nations “to use their diplomatic and economic leverage to help the Burmese people reclaim their freedom.” Although he did not mention any country by name, it was a message aimed particularly at China, the key trading partner and ally of the Burmese government. > > China has not joined the chorus of condemnation. Instead, it reiterated its refusal to pressure for change in public. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said the Chinese government hopes Burma’s rulers can “maintain stability and resolve the issue in its own way,” according to news agency reports from Beijing. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/18 "2007-09-26T16:28:07Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Well, they don’t want their readers getting any **ideas,** now, do they? :dubious: [/QUOTE] They’re actually publicising it, though. ---
**Author:** ![kelly5078](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/6f9a4e/32.png) [@kelly5078](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kelly5078)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/19 "2007-09-26T16:46:25Z")
I’m optimistic, which is kind of rare for me in these circumstances, for the following reasons: - Buddhism is huge in Myanmar, and having the monks actively going against the government is going to have a ripple effect throughout the population. And I tend to think that rebellions with a religious component tend to have more legs than purely secular ones. - People I know who have been there say the government is universally hated, and that everyone thinks Aung Sung Suu Kyi is the greatest. - The junta are not the type of bastards that close down the country, a la Cambodia or North Korea. They’re the kind of bastards who want to attract investment. There’s going to be a lot of trouble within the government itself if they end up repelling investment. I’m hopeful that meaningful pressure will be put on businesses that are currently profiting from the regime. - When people are completely fed up, oftentimes it’s just not possible to keep them down. I’m thinking of the collapse of the eastern bloc, mainly. - Myanmar doesn’t have the military machinery of North Korea or China, that can just crush everybody. I don’t think. I think, BTW, that China not doing anything is a good thing. When China does something, bad things happen. I think this is going to be a fairly long, extremely ugly struggle. And I think that, in the end, the government will be out, and Aung Sung will be in. Feel free to correct my ignorance. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2007, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/20 "2007-09-26T16:54:53Z")
[QUOTE=kelly5078] And I tend to think that rebellions with a religious component tend to have more legs than purely secular ones. [/QUOTE] Yes, they often do . . . What’s Sanskrit for “Ayatollah”? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485.md?page=2)