# Is Myanmar (Burma) on the brink of a "Saffron Revolution"? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 25, 2007, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485 "2007-09-25T22:19:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/41 "2007-09-27T16:24:51Z")
I just heard on _Democracy Now_ that both China **and India** are opposing any action by the UN Security Council. Why India?! Wouldn’t they rather have a democracy on their eastern border? And the refugee problem resolved? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/42 "2007-09-27T16:44:35Z")
[QUOTE=jjimm] They’ve still got the army on side, though. I think the best we can hope for is that the disquiet **amrussell** mentions grows, and that the army rebels against its leadership. [/QUOTE] The Russian Revolution of 1917 (both of them, actually) succeeded, and the 1990 Soviet military coup failed, in part because it occurred to the soldiers that they had their officers outnumbered and outgunned. ---
**Author:** ![matt\_mcl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ab992/32.png) [@matt\_mcl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/matt_mcl)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/43 "2007-09-27T17:06:01Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] I just heard on _Democracy Now_ that both China **and India** are opposing any action by the UN Security Council. Why India?! Wouldn’t they rather have a democracy on their eastern border? And the refugee problem resolved? [/QUOTE] Like China, India has major investments in Burma, especially relating to the energy sector. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/44 "2007-09-27T17:16:39Z")
[QUOTE=matt\_mcl] Like China, India has major investments in Burma, especially relating to the energy sector. [/QUOTE] Why would a democratic government threaten those investments? ---
**Author:** ![lalenin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/3da27b/32.png) [@lalenin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lalenin)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/45 "2007-09-27T17:23:57Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] The Communist governments of North Korea and Cuba have managed to hang on to power despite widespread international hostility because, among other things, they have an ideology – one that has actually had a lot of popular appeal in the past two centuries. … [/QUOTE] I can assure that the government of Cuba has not survived because the populace embraces communist ideology. Their survival has more to do with limiting the available options to ‘visible support for the government’ or ‘prison’. Most people chose to go along. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/46 "2007-09-27T17:31:55Z")
[QUOTE=lalenin] I can assure that the government of Cuba has not survived because the populace embraces communist ideology. Their survival has more to do with limiting the available options to ‘visible support for the government’ or ‘prison’. Most people chose to go along. [/QUOTE] My understanding is that a different ideology – nationalism – also plays a role. Many Cubans who don’t care a rat’s ass about socialism still admire Castro because he was the first Cuban leader since 1898 to stand up to the U.S. and make it stick. Or so I’ve heard. But I believe many of the people really **do** believe in socialism to some extent, whether or not they’re satisfied with its current manifestion in their country. No way to tell for sure, of course, until circumstances change enough to allow honest public-opinion polling. ---
**Author:** ![gazpacho](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6f9a4e/32.png) [@gazpacho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gazpacho)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/47 "2007-09-27T17:32:08Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Why would a democratic government threaten those investments? [/QUOTE] Well it is not so much that a democratic government would threaten those things it is that major unrest transitioning from what is there now to the democratic government would threaten them. Also a democratic government might feel that the agreements were made with a corrupt regime and therefore not feel bound by them. ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/48 "2007-09-27T18:22:59Z")
[three months ago I spent a few weeks in Myanmar] I didn’t see anything that would lead me to believe they were on the verge of any kind of revolution. Than Shwe is in power because of Chinese support. The Chinese support him and will continue too because he’s cutting them a great deal on offshore oil and being ProChinese makes Myanmar a useful pawn in Chinese Central Asian geopolitics. The National League for Democracy (The party that won the election in 1990, and the one most anti-junta still feel has the right to power) is getting no help from what is most likely their biggest ally…India. India and China consider eachother rivals, Myanmar’s ultimate successs depends on playoing one off against the other. Strange India hasn’t weighed in at all. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/49 "2007-09-27T18:24:06Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Why would a democratic government threaten those investments? [/QUOTE] Without having any specific information about this case, I’d hazard a guess that the SLORC negotiatiors were more interested in the size of their bribes than in getting the best deal for the people of Burma. It might be considered possible that a new regime, on discovering that its resources had been leased out for pennies in the pound, would want to renegotiate that deal. It’s not unheard of, even, for newly empowered people’s revolutions to nationalise such foreign investments. Nor would I say that was always a bad idea - but I’m not India, which will have weighed up its balance sheet against the importance of preserving and exporting human rights, and come to a conclusion. Doubtless after a prolonged wrestling bout with its conscience. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/50 "2007-09-27T18:27:48Z")
Apart from the government, is there any popular support on the ground in India for the protestors? Does anybody know? ---
**Author:** ![athelas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/5e9695/32.png) [@athelas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/athelas)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/51 "2007-09-27T18:31:06Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] The Communist governments of North Korea and Cuba have managed to hang on to power despite widespread international hostility because, among other things, they have an ideology – one that has actually had a lot of popular appeal in the past two centuries. An ideology many have been willing to die for – even when fighting in and for countries not their own. But what has the Burmese junta got for an ideology? When the dissidents demand “Democracy!” and the Buddhist monks chant their prayers, what (rhetorical) answer have they got? It’s very hard to maintain a government if it offers the people nothing to believe in. Such a government becomes perceived as merely the “gang in possession,” and who would die for that? [/QUOTE] According to Wikipedia, the junta embraces the so-called [Burmese Way to Socialism](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burmese_Way_to_Socialism). I’d guess that that’s about as close to official ideology as they get. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/52 "2007-09-27T18:56:14Z")
[QUOTE=athelas] According to Wikipedia, the junta embraces the so-called [Burmese Way to Socialism](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burmese_Way_to_Socialism). I’d guess that that’s about as close to official ideology as they get. [/QUOTE] 😕 Base-9 currency? And I thought Latin American politics were weird . . . ---
**Author:** ![gazpacho](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6f9a4e/32.png) [@gazpacho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gazpacho)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/53 "2007-09-27T19:01:15Z")
[QUOTE=athelas] According to Wikipedia, the junta embraces the so-called [Burmese Way to Socialism](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burmese_Way_to_Socialism). I’d guess that that’s about as close to official ideology as they get. [/QUOTE] I think you read that wrong. The article says that the Burmese Way to Socialism was before 1988 which is when the junta came to power. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/54 "2007-09-27T20:46:44Z")
[QUOTE=gazpacho] I think you read that wrong. The article says that the Burmese Way to Socialism was before 1988 which is when the junta came to power. [/QUOTE] Burma has been under a junta since Ne Win led the coup in 1962. Just a different one. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2007, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/55 "2007-09-27T21:32:56Z")
[Open letter from Abbot U Thangara Linkara to Senior General Than Shwe.](http://www.thenation.com/doc/20071015/linkhara) > [@](#): > > Dr. Maung Maung said, “Power can corrupt and absolute power can corrupt absolutely.” 🙂 OK, dude’s never heard of Lord Acton, but his heart’s in the right place! ---
**Author:** ![Ready\_for\_my\_closeup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c37758/32.png) [@Ready\_for\_my\_closeup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ready_for_my_closeup)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2007, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/56 "2007-09-28T05:18:11Z")
There’s a rumor going around that General Than Shwe has fled the country.[Link](http://www.mizzima.com/MizzimaNews/News/2007/Sep/98-Sep-2007.html) So maybe he took that letter to heart, \*\*BrainGlutton \*\*. 🙂 If it is true, it’s certainly interesting as it implies an internal power struggle within the junta. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2007, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/57 "2007-09-28T15:15:23Z")
[QUOTE=Ready\_for\_my\_closeup] There’s a rumor going around that General Than Shwe has fled the country.[Link](http://www.mizzima.com/MizzimaNews/News/2007/Sep/98-Sep-2007.html) So maybe he took that letter to heart, \*\*BrainGlutton \*\*. 🙂 If it is true, it’s certainly interesting as it implies an internal power struggle within the junta. [/QUOTE] There are also reports circulating of some troops changing sides and firing on other soldiers and police. [link](http://www.newsdeskspecial.co.uk/2007/09/army-mutiny-rep.html) > [@](#): > > Reports from Rangoon suggest soldiers are mutinying. It is unclear the numbers involved. Reports cite heavy shooting in the former Burmese capital. > > The organisation Helfen ohne Grenzen (Help without Frontiers) is reporting that “Soldiers from LID (Light Infantry Divison) #66 have turned their weapons against other government troops and possibly police in North Okkalappa township in Rangoon and are defending the protesters. At present unsure how many soldiers involved.” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2007, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/58 "2007-09-28T16:45:48Z")
[The troops are cracking down, apparently showing no hesitation to arrest or beat monks.](http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6956349,00.html) The key temples and monasteries have been occupied. ---
**Author:** ![Honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f04885/32.png) [@Honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honesty)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2007, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/59 "2007-09-28T17:50:55Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] The ruling military junta has cracked down hard on [previous protests](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8888_Uprising). But the [current round](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Burmese_anti-government_protests) is led by Buddhist monks, who have enormous social and moral prestige in that country. Will the government dare crack down on **them?** [Riot police have been sent in,](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/25/wburma225.xml) and a curfew declared, but the protestors say they won’t back down. There are now at least 100,000 marchers in the streets of Rangoon. [Bush just announced economic sanctions on the Myanmar government and its backers.](http://www.guardian.co.uk/burma/story/0,,2176876,00.html) [/QUOTE] I’m hesitant to post this in fear of sounding insensitive, but can anyone explain the sudden, worldwide attention to Myanmar/Burma? What makes this “bad” government worse than all of the others? ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2007, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485/60 "2007-09-28T17:57:56Z")
[QUOTE=Honesty] I’m hesitant to post this in fear of sounding insensitive, but can anyone explain the sudden, worldwide attention to Myanmar/Burma? What makes this “bad” government worse than all of the others? [/QUOTE] I’d guess it’s the sudden and unexpected mass demonstrations. Certainly no one was paying attention to Burma a few months ago. The Junta generally gets listed as one of the world’s worst human rights violaters. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-myanmar-burma-on-the-brink-of-a-saffron-revolution/420485.md?page=4)