# Is North Korea starting a war? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 26, 2010, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905 "2010-03-26T17:28:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![theR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/977dab/32.png) [@theR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/theR)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/41 "2010-03-27T15:04:17Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Well, don’t let any facts get between you and a war. > > You should really read The Guns of August, which describes how careless mistakes started a war that left 17 million people dead. Perhaps if you had even a little perspective on how wars start, you wouldn’t advocate a senseless, belligerent, and reckless military response. I just read this book for the first time a couple months ago and it was excellent. I liked it even more since it was a second-hand copy that was printed decades ago, so it was very dog-eared and weathered. The condition of the book helped set the mood. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/42 "2010-03-27T15:22:01Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > Wait, I think I saw this movie. Wasn’t there a Rupert Murdoch-like character with a stealth boat? I`m hoping we get a better sound track ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/43 "2010-03-27T15:31:19Z")
Did I ever advocate any sort of war? No. I advocated at worst some air strikes. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/44 "2010-03-27T15:56:11Z")
Oh well good then. Your, as always, deeply considered course of action could hardly be expected to go badly. Lob away. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/45 "2010-03-27T16:09:24Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > Did I ever advocate any sort of war? No. I advocated at worst some air strikes. Dropping bombs on a country is sort of like a war. At least we said it was in 1941. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/46 "2010-03-27T17:04:40Z")
> [@Camus](#): > > In addition, North Korea has a pretty crappy navy that is a green water navy at its very best. They do not have the logistics and capability to supply and re-supply an overseas force. Any large scale deployment of forces with the intention of landing in Japan or anywhere farther would be a one-way trip. Since Japan is unlikely to intervene militarily against North Korea except in a direct attack on the home islands, sending any forces outside of the Korean peninsula in the event of a conflict wouldn’t make any strategic sense, particularly since it would be a massive suicide mission. My understanding is the goal is not to fight a long standing battle like the US tried to do in western europe, it is to engage in suicide missions, assassinations, terrorism and behavior like that. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/47 "2010-03-27T17:08:56Z")
[QUOTE=Wesley Clark] My understanding is the goal is not to fight a long standing battle like the US tried to do in western europe, it is to engage in suicide missions, assassinations, terrorism and behavior like that. [/QUOTE] I don’t think that’s the point being made. I’m sure they might very well try to do stuff like the above…with 10 men. Or even 100…yeah, that’s do-able. Maybe even 500, though at that point we are getting into deep waters, support and infiltration wise. But 100,000?? No way in hell. Flatly impossible. I don’t think the US has 100,000 trained special ops people that we could send somewhere in the event of war. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Hallucinex](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ba9def/32.png) [@Hallucinex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hallucinex)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/48 "2010-03-27T17:26:00Z")
For what it’s worth, apparently the odds of DPRK involvement in the sinking are being [downplayed](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-03/27/c_13227139.htm) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/49 "2010-03-27T18:32:50Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > Did I ever advocate any sort of war? No. I advocated at worst some air strikes. To advocated airstrikes is to advocate war. First, an airstrike **is** an act of war. Second, “limited” military attacks have a tendency to spin out of control. In 2004, [military experts wargamed the likely outcome of an airstrike on Iran.](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/12/will-iran-be-next/3599/) They could see no way at all to keep such an action from escalating into a general regional war. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/50 "2010-03-27T19:00:49Z")
Quoth the OP and **Wesley Clark** , respectively: > [@](#): > > 1. North Korea threatens USA, South Korea with Nuclear strikes. Just normal NK craziness? > [@](#): > > They also have missiles that can reach Japan. Their nuclear weapons are crap but they still have nuclear weapons. There’s no evidence whatsoever that North Korea has nuclear weapons, and I’m pretty sure that if they did have nuclear weapons, they’d have demonstrated that fact by now. Yes, they were able to set off a (very pathetic) nuclear bomb, but that was a device built on site and never moved. To weaponize it, it needs to be small enough to fit on some sort of delivery system, and especially with their bottom-of-the-barrel missile technology, I think that’s extremely unlikely. The fact that they’re threatening to use the nuclear weapons they don’t have, rather than the conventional weapons they do, tells me this latest threat is all bark and no bite. Kim Jong Mentally-Ill doesn’t want war, he just wants attention, and he’ll get more attention from talking about nukes than he will by talking about artillery. DNFTT. ---
**Author:** ![Mogle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mogle/32/12021_2.png) [@Mogle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mogle)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/51 "2010-03-27T19:15:31Z")
This wouldn’t be the first naval skirmish between North and South Korea, there was one in [November](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/6535100/North-and-South-Korean-warships-in-naval-skirmish.html) last year and one in 1999 and 2002. Apparently NK doesn’t agree with everyone else on where the sea border should be. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/52 "2010-03-27T19:16:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth the OP and **Wesley Clark** , respectively:There’s no evidence whatsoever that North Korea has nuclear weapons, and I’m pretty sure that if they did have nuclear weapons, they’d have demonstrated that fact by now. Yes, they were able to set off a (very pathetic) nuclear bomb, but that was a device built on site and never moved. To weaponize it, it needs to be small enough to fit on some sort of delivery system, and especially with their bottom-of-the-barrel missile technology, I think that’s extremely unlikely. You may be referring to the 2006 test, but aren’t you aware there was one last year, too? [A four kiltoton bomb](http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/the-north-korean-nuclear-test-what-the-seismic-data-says) is still nothing to sneeze at. We’re talking almost everyone killed within a 4.5 kilometer area. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/53 "2010-03-27T19:22:01Z")
If they put it on the [Mangyongbong-92](http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/27/world/japan-frees-north-korean-ferry-after-holding-it-for-day-in-port.html?pagewanted=1), before it’s normal twice-a-year trip to Japan, it could cause a bit of damage. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/54 "2010-03-27T22:59:12Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Look, SK and NK have been on bad terms ever since the war, but this is not a China-Taiwan situation where each claims sovereignty over the other. Unless I’m mistaken, it always been North Korea’s position that the Seoul government is a U.S. puppet regime, and therefore not even sovereign let alone legititmate. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/55 "2010-03-27T23:38:41Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > I don’t think that’s the point being made. I’m sure they might very well try to do stuff like the above…with 10 men. Or even 100…yeah, that’s do-able. Maybe even 500, though at that point we are getting into deep waters, support and infiltration wise. But 100,000?? No way in hell. Flatly impossible. I don’t think the US has 100,000 trained special ops people that we could send somewhere in the event of war. > > -XT I don’t know. They could also be a stay behind force like operation Gladio was supposed to be in NATO. ---
**Author:** ![Camus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ba8739/32.png) [@Camus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Camus)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2010, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/56 "2010-03-28T02:18:20Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I don’t know. They could also be a stay behind force like operation Gladio was supposed to be in NATO. Except a stay behind force by definition is not an invasion force. Stay behind forces are only possible because, like guerrillas, they can blend in with the native population at will. Due to Japan’s homogeneity, it is difficult for any Koreans to effectively blend in, particularly ones who would be ideologically fanatics and probably wouldn’t know much if any Japanese. Bottom line, if North Korea were to re-ignite the Korean war, Japan would only become involved militarily if 1) the Japanese government amended their constitution to remove the anti-war Article 9, or 2) North Korea attacked Japan directly. Since North Korea would be overwhelmed by the South Korean and US forces already following any initial offensive, it doesn’t make any sense that North Korea would further ensure their own destruction by attacking Japan. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2010, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/57 "2010-03-28T02:48:49Z")
We launched air strikes against Libya, Serbia, Iraq (in the late '90s), and so on but none of these became full-on war. By air strikes I don’t mean systematic carpet-bombing or surgical strikes but a few strikes to get even and as a warning. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2010, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/58 "2010-03-28T03:18:21Z")
None of those places had an insane leader, a paranoid government, an insanely built up military, or, most importantly, nuclear weapons. I think direct air strikes would inevitably lead to war. I think it’s a war that North Korea would surely lose, but the cost to the South Koreans would be huge. Leaving aside the nuclear weapons, the NK’s have literally 10’s of thousands of artillery tubes aimed at Seoul and mountains of shells…and a lot of those tubes are zeroed in AND in reinforced bunkers, so it would take time to get at them. It would be ugly, and this leaves aside their huge (if creaky) army and air force, and, of course, those nuclear weapons. Best not to go up and whack the dying bear on the muzzle, just because you have a shot gun. You will probably kill the bear but it might tear your face off at the same time. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2010, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/59 "2010-03-28T03:44:29Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > We launched air strikes against Libya, Serbia, Iraq (in the late '90s), and so on but none of these became full-on war. By air strikes I don’t mean systematic carpet-bombing or surgical strikes but a few strikes to get even and as a warning. This is such a rediculous point to be debating, but are there any major cities with ten million plus people who are our allies within 10 miles of the border of Libya, Serbia, or Iraq? Go look up Bill Perry and the war plans he drew up in 1994 when Clinton considered bombing the Nork’s nuclear plant. Perry has said numerous times that even a “surgical” strike would likely lead to war. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2010, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905/60 "2010-03-28T04:26:27Z")
> [@](#): > > We launched air strikes against Libya, Serbia, Iraq (in the late '90s), and so on but none of these became full-on war. By air strikes I don’t mean systematic carpet-bombing or surgical strikes but a few strikes to get even and as a warning. Which shows the advantage of bombing countries that can’t fight back. Try an air strike on China or Russia sometime and see if you get a full-on war. And don’t think North Korea doesn’t understand this. This is the reason they got nuclear weapons - so that the United States can’t attack them with impunity. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-north-korea-starting-a-war/533905.md?page=4)