# Is Obama's Approval Rating Going to Plunge into the Toilet at Record Speed? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 13, 2009, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652 "2009-02-13T04:12:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/1 "2009-02-13T04:12:37Z")
As a disclaimer, I am a sort of moderate Republican/libertarian who didn’t want McCain to win because he is too old and I am getting tired of the existing GOP, especially Bush II. However, Obama and his administration seems to be going out of their way to fuck things up even beyond the wildest wet dreams of their most harsh critics. 1. Economic stimulus package #2 (#1 didn’t work) could not only haunt but kill Obama only a few weeks into his presidency. Most of the public is against it and not a single person in the world understands it yet it is being forced through at the expense of America’s future. He could literally destroy the USA with these types of bills. 2. Cabinet appointments - they are dropping like flies. There are people in the administration that are supposed to do this homework beforehand and yet they can’t seem to do it. Some are already dropping out due to lack of confidence in the administration. 3. Reckless and opaque decisions - moving the U.S. census to the White House is but one big example. There is no reason to do that without other motives. It is a simple count that the U.S. Constitution says has to happen every 10 years and it gets done. Obama wants to hide that in secrecy for some reason rather than dealing with any existing problems which is alarming. I dare to say that few people know what the man is thinking at this point, even his supporters. I am fully prepared to support him at any time I think he is doing a good job and this isn’t it. Do you think his approval ratings will plunge to less than 50% in the next few months. I almost certainly do and it may happen very soon. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/2 "2009-02-13T04:27:07Z")
I do think his approval ratings due for a plunge - just as soon as the stimulus package fails to stimulate the economy in a meaningful way. Fingers will soon be pointed, right at the rush job the expensive bill was. My most cynical prediction is that if his aproval rating does drop significantly, we’ll soon get an announcment that there’s a first-baby on the way. Who doesn’t love celebrity babies? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/3 "2009-02-13T04:33:29Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > …Most of the public is against it … Ah, no. [http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/161625.asp](http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/161625.asp) > [@](#): > > ..Sixty-seven percent approved of Obama’s efforts, just 25 percent disapproved, with eight percent offering no opinion… (Feb. 9) > [@](#): > > …2) Cabinet appointments - they are dropping like flies…Some are already dropping out due to lack of confidence in the administration… Time for a good old fashioned citerooni! Yessiree, Bob, whip that cite out! (And _some_ has to be more than one, because its plural.) > [@](#): > > 3)… Reckless and opaque decisions - moving the U.S. census to the White House is but one big example. There is no reason to do that without other motives…Obama wants to hide that in secrecy for some reason rather than dealing with any existing problems which is alarming… _That’s_ alarming? No, that’s dull. That’s boring. Soporific. > [@](#): > > …I dare to say that _few people know_ what the man is thinking at this point, even his supporters. I am fully prepared to support him at any time I think he is doing a good job and this isn’t it… (emp. added) I daresay, few indeed. Have I any reason to believe that you are one of them? > [@](#): > > …Do you think his approval ratings will plunge to less than 50% in the next few months. I almost certainly do and it may happen very soon. There is nothing, but nothing, impossible in politics. If everything goes totally to shit and somehow the people are convinced to blame him, sure, you bet. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/4 "2009-02-13T04:33:58Z")
This stimulus package is decidedly different than the first one. The first was a bank bailout only. It was not intended to create jobs. it was meant to save the banking system from itself and its excesses. He has been cranking out appointments because he wanted to get moving on the programs that he hopes will settle the economy down. He has barely been in office and you are predicting disaster. His programs are not even in place yet ,so don’t pretend you are impartially analyzing him. The census has always been an important political tool. This time the dems are in when it happens. Not a big deal. But the repubs want equal input in everything. Sorry,but they were voted out. the people wanted change. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/5 "2009-02-13T04:35:06Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > Most of the public is against it… [Stimulus Support Edges Higher, Now 59%](http://www.gallup.com/poll/114577/Stimulus-Support-Edges-Higher.aspx) (_USA Today_/Gallup poll, February 11) ---
**Author:** ![IdahoMauleMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/71c47a/32.png) [@IdahoMauleMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IdahoMauleMan)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/6 "2009-02-13T04:40:08Z")
> [@MEBuckner](#): > > [Stimulus Support Edges Higher, Now 59%](http://www.gallup.com/poll/114577/Stimulus-Support-Edges-Higher.aspx) (_USA Today_/Gallup poll, February 11) Somehow, that makes me feel even worse. ---
**Author:** ![clayton\_e](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c57346/32.png) [@clayton\_e](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clayton_e)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/7 "2009-02-13T04:40:42Z")
Yeah… Seconding that cite request for high ranking Obama officials jumping ship a month in. I’ve googled every arrangement of words that might make something come up in the news and I can’t find jack. (unless, of course, his name isn’t Jack) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/8 "2009-02-13T04:42:10Z")
Well, there you have it, the approval rating is going up. What clearer sign of impending doom might you expect? An unexpected jump in consumer spending? OK, that would be certain death, no doubt about it but… AAAIIIEEEEE! [http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-economy,0,6851408.story](http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-economy,0,6851408.story) > [@](#): > > …The unexpected increase from December, reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday, reversed a six-month decline and marked the biggest increase in 14 months… Hmmm. My cousin’s still got that fallout shelter outside of Denton. If I drove straight through… ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/9 "2009-02-13T04:53:59Z")
Approval ratings are so high that they have to fall. According to the results of a [Galllup Poll](http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx) from February 9: > [@](#): > > President Obama receives a 67% approval rating for his handling of the government’s efforts to pass an economic stimulus bill, compared to 31% for the Republicans in Congress. Also, the poll notes that a majority of Americans (51%) say that passing an economic stimulus bill is critical to improving the economy. > [@](#): > > **Shagnasty** : Economic stimulus package #2 (#1 didn’t work) could not only haunt but kill Obama only a few weeks into his presidency. Are you talking about the deal that was worked out in the Senate? > [@](#): > > Some are already dropping out due to lack of confidence in the administration. If you stretch the number _one_ until it’s really really big, it’s still not two or more. 1. The Executive Branch was already responsible for the Census. It wasn’t moved from another branch of government. You don’t really think that the entire US Census is going to be operating out of the White House, do you? > [@](#): > > Obama wants to hide that in secrecy for some reason rather than dealing with any existing problems which is alarming. You don’t think that Obama is dealing with existing problems? You were just complaining about his solutions to existing problems. ETA: I see this is old news! ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/10 "2009-02-13T05:16:35Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > 1. Economic stimulus package #2 (#1 didn’t work) could not only haunt but kill Obama only a few weeks into his presidency. Most of the public is against it and not a single person in the world understands it yet it is being forced through at the expense of America’s future. He could literally destroy the USA with these types of bills. It might fail, but so what? Anything they do \*might \*fail. We have no good indication that this bill is a failure just yet. A policy of the administration might fail and lower the administration’s approval ratings. Real insight there. > [@](#): > > 1. Cabinet appointments - they are dropping like flies. There are people in the administration that are supposed to do this homework beforehand and yet they can’t seem to do it. Some are already dropping out due to lack of confidence in the administration. Who dropped out due to a lack of confidence in the administration? > [@](#): > > 1. Reckless and opaque decisions - moving the U.S. census to the White House is but one big example. There is no reason to do that without other motives. It is a simple count that the U.S. Constitution says has to happen every 10 years and it gets done. Obama wants to hide that in secrecy for some reason rather than dealing with any existing problems which is alarming. This one sounds like a political power grab, but it won’t really harm his approval ratings. I’m sure no one cares about this with the economy the way it is. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/11 "2009-02-13T05:16:54Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > 1. Cabinet appointments - they are dropping like flies. There are people in the administration that are supposed to do this homework beforehand and yet they can’t seem to do it. Some are already dropping out due to lack of confidence in the administration. Confidence in Obama actually [went up](http://www.gallup.com/poll/114187/Confidence-Obama-Remains-High-Cabinet-Troubles.aspx) following the Daschle affair. There’s little reason to think that Gregg taking his ball and going home is what’s going to torpedo it. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/12 "2009-02-13T05:18:10Z")
Obama won about 52% of the popular vote. Dropping to 49% approval hardly seems like much of a plunge in that context. That would pretty much just be the honeymoon wearing off. Nevertheless, I think you’re wrong about even that weak prediction. So let’s place a friendly bet on this near certainty you’ve got in mind. If Obama drops below 50% approval in the three-day rolling average of the Gallup daily poll within the next three months, and stays there for more than three days, you win. If I win, you can’t refer to yourself a moderate, or centrist, or otherwise non-right-wing-partisan on this board for a full year. You can choose the comparable condition to impose on me upon your victory. Fair? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/13 "2009-02-13T05:45:32Z")
Not Gallup. They suck big time. Find someone neutral. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/14 "2009-02-13T05:49:01Z")
There was a period in early February which appeared fairly rocky for Obama with the withdrawl of the Daschle nomination and a certain amount of pushback against the stimulus in the Senate. Clearly that phase has passed away. Obama’s public intervention for the stimulus was highly successful and he is going to get most of what he wanted. His poll numbers are great and the Republican numbers are poor. Daschle is yesterday’s news and the public won’t care at all about Gregg. If anything it will strengthen the perception that Republicans aren’t reciprocating Obama’s bipartisan reaching out. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/15 "2009-02-13T05:50:33Z")
I’m not going to guess at his popularity, but I am shocked by how badly this administration has started out of the gate. I actually had high hopes for Obama during the transition. But holy smokes he’s gone wrong in a big way. First, he’s violated a pile of campaign promises. And not just little ones. The latest was his administration’s invocation of the state secret law, which the left used to hammer Bush for. Then he loses a bunch of cabinet appointees due to terrible vetting. Then he turns control of the stimulus bill over to Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, and they turn out the most partisan, poorly constructed spending bill I’ve ever seen. It adds a whole bunch of permanent new government spending which is going to act as a brake on the U.S. economy for decades. They slide in all kinds of things that are totally unrelated to a stimulus, such as billions of dollars to set up a commission to start micro-managing private medical treatments. Anyone who’s paying any attention knows that they used the crisis to steamroll in a whole bunch of major changes in the relationship between the government and its citizens without any kind of debate or transparency. If they sign it tomorrow, they’ll violate Obama’s promise to make all bills available online several days before a vote. And stuff like this really pisses people off: [Congressional Offices Don’t Have the Stimulus Bill, Lobbyists Do](http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/2/12/congressional-offices-dont-have-the-stimulus-bill-lobbyists-do.html) > [@](#): > > We’re receiving E-mails from Capitol Hill staffers expressing frustration that they can’t get a copy of the stimulus bill agreed to last night at a price of $789 billion. What’s more, staffers are complaining about who does have a copy: K Street lobbyists. E-mails one key Democratic staffer: “K Street has the bill, or chunks of it, already, and the congressional offices don’t. So, the Hill is getting calls from the press (because it’s leaking out) asking us to confirm or talk about what we know—but we can’t do that because we haven’t seen the bill. Anyway, peeps up here are sort of a combo of confused and like, ‘Is this really happening?’” Reporters pressing for details, meanwhile, are getting different numbers from different offices, especially when seeking the details of specific programs. That’s how this bill is developing. It’s a gigantic mess. It’s being drafted by the professional rent-seeking class. This thing is going to be owned by the special interests right out of the gate - the unions, the large corporations. Big money is apparently going into the districts of one Harry Reid and one Nancy Pelosi. The bill is being passed without public debate, voted on by people who will not even have read it. Clearly, the Democrats are worried that these plans would not survive a real debate were they put through the normal appropriations process. That means they are intentionally skirting the spirit of the law to ram through policies without giving the opposition or the public time to weigh in. It’s truly despicable behavior. And Obama’s cheerleading for it. Obama just pissed away one of the biggest golden opportunities ever handed a new President - sky-high approval ratings, and a public attitude that was and is open to change. The people clearly want bipartisan efforts, and are tired of partisanship. Had Obama continued his early outreach to Republicans by forcing Nancy and Harry to go back to the drawing board and craft a package that Republicans could at least live with, he would have gained so much political capital that he could have pushed through a lot of these other policies anyway. But now, the gloves seem to be off. This move of the census to the White House political office (Karl Rove’s old joint) is either a move to help Democrats gerrmander or otherwise rig a few more electoral districts, or gather opposition research, in which case it’s an abuse of the Presidency. Or it means nothing, in which case it was a politically tone-deaf boneheaded move. You don’t just hand ammo like that to your opponents on a whim. This is what caused Gregg to quit - the census was yanked out of his department, which undermined him right out of the gate. I don’t think he had a choice. Finally, this week Geithner’s new recovery plan dropped like an anvil on the markets. It’s getting panned throughout the financial press as an unfathomable mess. Obama’s still got lots of support from the public, because they want him to succeed. They want anyone to succeed, so they’re cutting Obama some slack. But his administration is reeling it in fast, and it’s not going to be there forever. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/16 "2009-02-13T06:03:30Z")
[Edited out because I misjudged who Gonzomax was responding to] ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/17 "2009-02-13T06:12:20Z")
**Sam Stone** , aren’t you expecting a little too much from Obama? Was there anyway he could have passed a bill of this size without Congressmen allocating funds to their districts? And from what I understand the demands of the Republicans could not be met without fundamentally changing the bill. Tax cuts were already in the bill but it seems like they wanted even less spending. Why would Obama give into their demands when the public clearly voted against them in the election? ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/18 "2009-02-13T06:22:32Z")
I think it’s only natural that his opponents, especially because of his enormous pre-election popularity, are delighted to harangue him mercilessly over every little perceived error in judgement. Whether they are the “right” decisions or not nothing he has done nor _can_ do in his presidency will come anywhere near the level of the atrocities perpetrated by the Bush regime. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/19 "2009-02-13T06:34:51Z")
Obama has made a serious effort to reach out to Republicans but it hasn’t been reciprocated. The basic problem is that the Republican party isn’t a serious party of governance any more; more a collection of assorted nutcases and hacks: theocons, neocons, supply-siders etc. This was illustrated by the alternative plan voted for by the Senate Republicans which received 36 votes which was all tax cuts and no spending. A lot of these tax cuts would have little immediate impact on the economy and they would … surprise … disproportionately benefit the wealthy. It was a profoundly unserious act at a time of serious economic crisis. Contrast that to the Obama plan which ,in addition to spending, contained serious tax cuts right from the begining and not just as a concession to the Senate moderates. He has received serious heat from liberals like Krugman who argued that he was negotiating with himself but IMO his strategy has basically worked. He has gotten most of what he wanted and though he probably won’t get a bi-partisan vote he is widely perceived by the public as having made a serious effort to reach out to the Republicans. For example there is a CNN poll which shows that 74% think he has done enough to work with Republicans but only 39% think the Republicans have done enough to work with Obama. BTW it’s quite amusing to watch commentators on the right working themselves into a frenzy at every supposed setback to Obama and every slightly negative poll while ignoring every sign that Obama is actually doing quite well. I suspect it’s going to be a long 8 years of teeth-gnashing for them. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652/20 "2009-02-13T06:58:01Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > I actually had high hopes for Obama during the transition. But holy smokes he’s gone wrong in a big way. […] > > Obama just pissed away one of the biggest golden opportunities ever handed a new President - sky-high approval ratings, and a public attitude that was and is open to change. The people clearly want bipartisan efforts, and are tired of partisanship. Had Obama continued his early outreach to Republicans by forcing Nancy and Harry to go back to the drawing board and craft a package that Republicans could at least live with, he would have gained so much political capital that he could have pushed through a lot of these other policies anyway. Gee, that was pretty fast work at abandoning hope, **Sam**. Obama’s been in office for what, three weeks and a day? And you’re right about the public wanting bipartisanship, at least in theory, but apparently wrong about [who they seem to be blaming for the lack of it](http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/09/poll.obama.stimulus/?iref=mpstoryview): > [@](#): > > Three out of four poll respondents said that Obama is doing enough to cooperate with Republicans in Congress, but only 39 percent feel that congressional Republicans are cooperating enough with the president. > > Six out of 10 approved of the way Democratic leaders in Congress are handling their jobs. But only 44 percent of those questioned approved of the way Republican leaders in Congress are performing. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-obamas-approval-rating-going-to-plunge-into-the-toilet-at-record-speed/485652.md?page=2)