# Is Ohio back in play for Romney or not? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2012, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117 "2012-10-08T19:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/41 "2012-10-09T19:17:17Z")
Ladies and Gentlemen, Baghdad Bob! ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/42 "2012-10-09T19:33:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I guess it was a really bad time for Obama to have Gallup start applying a likely voter screen: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general\_election\_romney\_vs\_obama-1171.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) Oof. I wonder if that’s going to drop Obama’s numbers below 70 in the 538 predictions. Anybody who thinks this election is almost a done deal is delusional. ETA: Nate’s last two tweets: > [@](#): > > Gallup poll not that newsy. But consensus of polling data pretty bad for Obama. Polls released today show 3.7% bounce for Romney on avg. > > […] > > It’s possible that Romney’s bounce is fading slightly. Also possible that it was larger than we thought originally. Not mutually exclusive. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/43 "2012-10-09T19:45:36Z")
I just got my absentee ballot in the mail. So until I send it in, Ohio is in play. Campaign staffs, e-mail me about where to send the check. As for the election, it’s still Obama’s, unless the Iranians explode a nuclear bomb and Obama says “You didn’t build that”. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/44 "2012-10-09T19:47:30Z")
Latest tweet from Nate: > [@](#): > > Awaiting a couple more polls, but possible our model will show its largest one-day swing of the year. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/45 "2012-10-09T19:50:30Z")
I guess there’s no real mystery which direction things are headed either. What was the previous largest one-day swing? ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/46 "2012-10-09T19:52:01Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I guess there’s no real mystery which direction things are headed either. What was the previous largest one-day swing? Don’t know, it dropped about 3-4 points yesterday, so I’m betting my hunch about it possibly dropping below 70 is right. I’m going to guess 65-67%. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/47 "2012-10-09T20:38:57Z")
Ok, it wasn’t quite that bad. Down to 71.4% overall. Ohio to 72%. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/48 "2012-10-09T20:46:26Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Don’t know, it dropped about 3-4 points yesterday, so I’m betting my hunch about it possibly dropping below 70 is right. I’m going to guess 65-67%. So down from curbstomp to asskicking numbers? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/49 "2012-10-09T21:02:30Z")
Latest [CNN poll for Ohio](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/09/cnn-poll-race-tightening-up-in-battleground-ohio/) has Obama up 51% to 47%, which is close but also shows Obama over 50%. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/50 "2012-10-09T21:24:41Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Latest [CNN poll for Ohio](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/09/cnn-poll-race-tightening-up-in-battleground-ohio/) has Obama up 51% to 47%, which is close but also shows Obama over 50%. Certainly a good poll for Obama, but taken in context with other recent polls, I think the answer to the OP is still “yes, Ohio is ‘in play’ for Romney, but Obama is still favored to win the state.” ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/51 "2012-10-09T21:48:08Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > So down from curbstomp to asskicking numbers? _shrug_ For me, a 1-in-3 chance of losing the election is not something I’m comfortable with, and wouldn’t characterize as “ass-kicking.” Just “comfortable, but surmountable lead.” The CNN Ohio poll gives me more optimism. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/52 "2012-10-09T22:16:28Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > You can stop right there. > > The answer to the OP is no, Ohio is not and will not be in play. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Based on … what? Because it’s high in the middle and round on both ends! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/53 "2012-10-09T22:19:51Z")
Because the _trees_ are high in the middle. Just the right height, you know? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/54 "2012-10-09T22:29:45Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The answer to the OP is no, Ohio is not and will not be in play. Just curious, BobLibDem, is there some number at which you’d be willing to concede that Ohio is again in play? If Nate Silver projects Obama’s chance of winning Ohio to be less than \_\_\_% will you be wrong? Same question for the rest of you: At what 538 % do you consider a state to be “in play” or a tossup? less than 66-33? 60-40? 55-45? ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/55 "2012-10-09T22:32:44Z")
55/45 sounds about right. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/56 "2012-10-09T22:40:54Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Latest [CNN poll for Ohio](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/09/cnn-poll-race-tightening-up-in-battleground-ohio/) has Obama up 51% to 47%, which is close but also shows Obama over 50%. I can say with absolute certainty there’s no way those internals are right. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/57 "2012-10-09T22:53:44Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I can say with absolute certainty there’s no way those internals are right. What’s not right? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/58 "2012-10-09T22:58:42Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > 55/45 sounds about right. After I asked this question, I saw that Silver rates each state himself. Virginia is currently 58-42 and he calls it a “Tossup” while Iowa is 66-34 and he calls it “Lean Obama” so I’m guessing his cut-off is 60-40, or maybe something a bit more scientific. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/59 "2012-10-09T23:02:42Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > What’s not right? Romney won’t win men by 14 points and Obama won’t win women by 22 points. Romney will almost certainly win men (a different outcome from 2008 when Obama won men in the state) and Obama will win women as he did in 2008, but the gap between the two will be more in Romney’s favor as when compared to 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117/60 "2012-10-09T23:04:11Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > After I asked this question, I saw that Silver rates each state himself. Virginia is currently 58-42 and he calls it a “Tossup” while Iowa is 66-34 and he calls it “Lean Obama” so I’m guessing his cut-off is 60-40, or maybe something a bit more scientific. I think he does it on vote share. IF both candidates are under 50% vote share, then it is a toss-up. If a candidate gets 50%-50.9% then it is lean, and above that it is likely. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-ohio-back-in-play-for-romney-or-not/637117.md?page=4)