# Is Olympia Snowe Next? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 29, 2009, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773 "2009-04-29T21:08:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/1 "2009-04-29T21:08:57Z")
Since Arlen Specter’s defection to the Democratic party yesterday, news correspondents and political pundits have been feverishly speculating whether or not Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins are merely a few ticks of the clock from following suit. At first blush I’d say no for both of them, but I was wrong about Specter so who knows? What makes this more difficult to determine is Olympia Snowe is almost everywhere I turn today, such as [this Op Ed piece in today’s New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/opinion/29snowe.html?_r=2&ref=todayspaper), and [this MSNBC video](http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/olympia-snowe-says-right-wing-extremis-0). If she wasn’t marked before this I suspect she is now. I don’t see today’s GOP letting her get away with having an intelligent, independent thought and actually expressing it. I predict Limbaugh’s head will go all asplodey tomorrow. What say you? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/2 "2009-04-29T21:12:25Z")
I think Olympia Snowe is smart enough to let the GOP worry that she might. The GOP really cannot afford numerous defections at this point. The GOP may value ideological purity but these are politicians and they all understand realpolitik. Snowe may gain advantage/concessions/juicy committee seats/keep primary competitors at bay/whatever if the GOP works to keep her happy. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/3 "2009-04-29T22:03:39Z")
I hope not, though Snowe’s comments certainly showed a great deal of distaste for the current state of the GOP. It’s not healthy for democracy for all the centrists in the GOP to be forced out. I’m a pretty liberal guy, and I want to be able to like elements of the Republican party. Snowe is at least one Senator who, while I disagree with her on some issues, I don’t feel my skin crawl when I hear her speak. A viable opposition is important as a check on government, and there are enough idiots in the Democrat ranks that I fear what they will do to both the country and the party if given too much free rein. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/4 "2009-04-29T22:06:46Z")
> [@villa](#): > > It’s not healthy for democracy for all the centrists in the GOP to be forced out. Fact is, if that happens, the GOP itself is not healthy for democracy. Let’s keep the blame where it belongs here. ---
**Author:** ![haymarketmartyr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/35a633/32.png) [@haymarketmartyr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/haymarketmartyr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/5 "2009-04-29T22:07:17Z")
Snowe could jump but the odds are against it right now. She does not have the obvious internal political problems in her state that Specter had and that was his main motivation. But the national Republican Party has a lot of explaining to do about their future and until that is answered clearly anything is possible for the few remaining moderates like Snowe and Collins. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/6 "2009-04-29T22:14:38Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Fact is, if that happens, the GOP itself is not healthy for democracy. Let’s keep the blame where it belongs here. I agree. The GOP has forced its own moderates out. I did not mean to imply anything different. But it’s not a good thing. Not only is a hard-core conservative only GOP bad for democracy, it will sometime win an election, and the damage it will wreck then will make the Contract on America look positively enlightened. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/7 "2009-04-29T23:00:59Z")
Snowe and Collins have just lost a lot of power, now that their votes will no longer be needed for cloture. Neither party needs them much anymore. And don’t forget that their support in Maine is still more personal than party-based. Going Independent won’t help either on, either. Plus, they’re both well-regarded enough in Maine to win again. No switch. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/8 "2009-04-29T23:17:33Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Snowe and Collins have just lost a lot of power, now that their votes will no longer be needed for cloture. That’s really not true at all. There are now 59 Democrats in the Senate, and once Al Franken is seated there will be 60, but that doesn’t mean that filibusters can’t succeed. If Republicans can peel off Lincoln, Pryor, Specter, or any other Blue Dogs, they can still prevent cloture. All Specter’s flip has done is make cloture a little easier. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/9 "2009-04-29T23:19:46Z")
Yea, both can basically be senator for as long as they want, from any party they want, as they’re quite popular in Maine, and I don’t think many voters there care what party they’re from. But I suspect they’ll both stay put, even with Spector’s defection, they’re still probably more powerful as moderate GOP members that can be courted to vote against their party then they would be as Dems even with possible commitee chairs. But who knows, at this point I wouldn’t put it past the GOP leadership to basically hound them out. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/10 "2009-04-29T23:34:32Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > That’s really not true at all. There are now 59 Democrats in the Senate, and once Al Franken is seated there will be 60, but that doesn’t mean that filibusters can’t succeed. McConnell can’t even threaten them as a routine matter now. Yes, it’s still theoretically possible, but only if it’s important enough to whip the vote, and that was always hard and has become a lot harder. The GOP can’t do it on the average-one-per-day basis to which we’ve all become exasperatingly accustomed. I’m more interested in how Reid will perform now with his favorite excuse gone. McConnell essentially doesn’t matter anymore. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2009, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/11 "2009-04-29T23:37:43Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > they’re still probably more powerful as moderate GOP members that can be courted to vote against their party And as tokens who can be trotted out on Fox to demonstrate the Big Tent that is today’s GOP. If one would do it in blackface, so much the better. > [@](#): > > I wouldn’t put it past the GOP leadership to basically hound them out. Limbaugh is targeting McCain next. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/12 "2009-04-30T00:05:58Z")
The idea that Specter was centrist, or that he was forced out for ideological purity, is utter nonsense. He was centrist only by virtue of being so quixotic as to be unpredictable, and rather useless. He was not forced out at all, but jumped ship because he faced a tough - perhaps insurmountable - primary challenge from a fiscal conservative. And he was being challenged more or less entirely on economic grounds. He jumped ship to the Republicans when it was convenient, and he jumped back on the same basis. Snowe is being exceedingly disingenous, because she’s trying (and has for a while) to ward off criticism of what we believe to be horrendously bad choices (read: supporting the current budget nightmare). She’s not ebing put upon for anything like social policy. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Socks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a8b319/32.png) [@Captain\_Socks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Socks)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/13 "2009-04-30T00:08:07Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > That’s really not true at all. There are now 59 Democrats in the Senate, and once Al Franken is seated there will be 60, but that doesn’t mean that filibusters can’t succeed. If Republicans can peel off Lincoln, Pryor, Specter, or any other Blue Dogs, they can still prevent cloture. All Specter’s flip has done is make cloture a little easier. When you say that Specter is the 59th Democrat and Franken will be 60, does that include Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont who caucuses with the Democrats? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/14 "2009-04-30T00:09:26Z")
> [@](#): > > It’s not healthy for democracy for all the centrists in the GOP to be forced out. I’m a pretty liberal guy, and I want to be able to like elements of the Republican party. Snowe is at least one Senator who, while I disagree with her on some issues, I don’t feel my skin crawl when I hear her speak. A viable opposition is important as a check on government, and there are enough idiots in the Democrat ranks that I fear what they will do to both the country and the party if given too much free rein. While I would also like to see a return to a system of two sane parties, I think at this point the easiest path back to that is for the Republican party to finish consuming itself, and for the resulting nigh-monolithic Democratic party to split (perhaps along very different lines than what we now regard as “right” and “left”), rather than to try to inject sanity back into the Republican party. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/15 "2009-04-30T00:12:36Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > I think Olympia Snowe is smart enough to let the GOP worry that she might. The GOP really cannot afford numerous defections at this point. The GOP may value ideological purity but these are politicians and they all understand realpolitik. Snowe may gain advantage/concessions/juicy committee seats/keep primary competitors at bay/whatever if the GOP works to keep her happy. But it’s become clear that the people who actually run the GOP are **NOT** the politicians. Those who actually do run it probably benefit when the GOP is in the shitter, to be honest. The farther it’s submerged, the better of they personally are. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/16 "2009-04-30T00:17:27Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > I think Olympia Snowe is smart enough to let the GOP worry that she might. The GOP really cannot afford numerous defections at this point. The GOP may value ideological purity but these are politicians and they all understand realpolitik. Snowe may gain advantage/concessions/juicy committee seats/keep primary competitors at bay/whatever if the GOP works to keep her happy. I don’t know. The GOP of late doesn’t seem to be thinking very logically or rationally. I say they try to punish her in some way, further expanding the gulf between the party and sanity. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/17 "2009-04-30T00:24:46Z")
> [@smiling\_bandit](#): > > Snowe is being exceedingly disingenous, because she’s trying (and has for a while) to ward off criticism of what we believe to be horrendously bad choices (read: supporting the current budget nightmare). She’s not ebing put upon for anything like social policy. I think you meant to type ‘supporting the attempts to fix the current budget nightmare.’ Yes? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/18 "2009-04-30T00:29:50Z")
> [@smiling\_bandit](#): > > The idea that Specter was centrist, or that he was forced out for ideological purity, is utter nonsense. He was centrist only by virtue of being so quixotic as to be unpredictable, and rather useless. He was not forced out at all, but jumped ship because he faced a tough - perhaps insurmountable - primary challenge from a fiscal conservative. And he was being challenged more or less entirely on economic grounds. He jumped ship to the Republicans when it was convenient, and he jumped back on the same basis. Snowe is being exceedingly disingenous, because she’s trying (and has for a while) to ward off criticism of what we believe to be horrendously bad choices (read: supporting the current budget nightmare). She’s not ebing put upon for anything like social policy. Much of Spector’s primary problem came from moderate Republicans leaving the party, making primary voters more right wing on average. He might have been okay anyhow with strong support from the national party, but I doubt that was promised. I suspect Snowe and Collins will stay, but if there is a lot of this “repent you sinners” stuff coming from the national party, they might go too. So, please write your leaders encouraging them to not cut slack for these pinkos from Maine. Many thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/19 "2009-04-30T00:31:45Z")
> [@smiling\_bandit](#): > > The idea that Specter was centrist, or that he was forced out for ideological purity, is utter nonsense. He was centrist only by virtue of being so quixotic as to be unpredictable, and rather useless. He was not forced out at all, but jumped ship because he faced a tough - perhaps insurmountable - primary challenge from a fiscal conservative. And he was being challenged more or less entirely on economic grounds. He jumped ship to the Republicans when it was convenient, and he jumped back on the same basis. Snowe is being exceedingly disingenous, because she’s trying (and has for a while) to ward off criticism of what we believe to be horrendously bad choices (read: supporting the current budget nightmare). She’s not ebing put upon for anything like social policy. So, he wasn’t a real Republican? Is Snowe? Is Collins? Who’s this _we_, by the way? Are you one of Snowe’s constituents, or are you one of those who believe that no True Republican could disagree with you? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773/20 "2009-04-30T00:32:48Z")
> [@Captain\_Socks](#): > > When you say that Specter is the 59th Democrat and Franken will be 60, does that include Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont who caucuses with the Democrats? Yes, and it also includes the independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-olympia-snowe-next/494773.md?page=2)