# Is Operation Chaos really effective? (Rush Limbaugh thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 18, 2008, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727 "2008-05-18T05:56:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![SSG\_Schwartz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@SSG\_Schwartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SSG_Schwartz)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/1 "2008-05-18T05:56:59Z")
Rather than hijack this [thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=468455) about Rush and Ted Kennedy, I wanted to start a new one. Have you heard about Operation Chaos? Of course you have. Every news team has covered it, but does it really do more than get voters out to vote? Does it do more than promote the EIB network? I really can’t see anyone who wasn’t planning to vote going out to cross party lines to vote for a Democrat. Yes there may be a few who do, but I sincerely believe that they would have voted for the stronger Republican candidate regardless of who that would have been. In short, Rush will claim victory whatever happens if his ratings increase, and they will if the race is close. Finally, on a hijack of my own OP, what is wrong with a liberal Republican or a conservative Democrat? Didn’t the US survive that before? SSG Schwartz ---
**Author:** ![Carson\_O\_Genic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cdc98d/32.png) [@Carson\_O\_Genic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carson_O_Genic)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/2 "2008-05-18T11:52:40Z")
In this part of Pa. there has been a mass defection from the GOP. This an area where there might be 1 Dem for every 1,000 Pubs. Conversation with the locals indicates large dissatisfaction with Iraq policy and economic outlook but no Donkey cut and run en masse.They won’t vote for Obama. So Mr. Limbaugh will claim success, though the party leadership had the idea before he did AFAICT. As for your hijack, I prefer moderates but anyone willing to compromise with the other party cannot be the true spokesperson for their own. Just ask J.McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Student\_Driver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3da27b/32.png) [@Student\_Driver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Student_Driver)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/3 "2008-05-18T11:54:43Z")
I know several Republicans here in Indiana who crossed party lines to vote for Clinton. (Quick total off the top of my head-- at least four of them.) Since the GOP already had settled on McCain by the time of our primary day, they felt no need to vote for their party, and they voted for Clinton because they felt her to be the weaker candidate and to help prolong the Democrat’s process, which they believe is weakening Democrat support across the board. They didn’t do it because of Rush, at least directly, but as a strategy espoused locally in their Southern Baptist church. Now, whether this is effective, I’m not sure. Even at that late date, I’d heard similar ideas from other Republicans who believe Obama is the candidate more likely to lose against McCain. It’d be kind of funny if the “Chaos” votes were cancelling themselves out-- did Rush request participants vote specifically for one candidate or the other? ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/4 "2008-05-18T16:22:14Z")
Once McCain clinched the Republican nomination, Republicans had no further reason to vote in their own primaries. Before that, there’s no way Operation Chaos would have made a bit of difference, because people would have more incentive to get the candidate they want elected than sabotage the opposition. I think since McCain clinched the nomination, Operation Chaos has been quite successful. Rush told his supporters to vote for Hillary, and there’s strong evidence that a whole lot of them did in places where it might have mattered most - Texas and Pennsylvania. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/5 "2008-05-18T17:57:28Z")
If Rush wants [riots in Denver,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=466087) I don’t think he’s gonna get 'em. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/6 "2008-05-18T18:25:42Z")
Isn’t another measure of success keeping HRC in the race and keeping the Democrats fighting rather than rallying around a single candidate? That is, is the protracted primary debacle detrimental to the Democratic candidates/party? (Isn’t that an entire thread?) Did enough OCers participate in the primaries to make a statistically significant difference? If so, was that statistical difference enough to keep her in the race? ---
**Author:** ![MsRobyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/90ced4/32.png) [@MsRobyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsRobyn)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/7 "2008-05-18T18:56:27Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] Once McCain clinched the Republican nomination, Republicans had no further reason to vote in their own primaries. Before that, there’s no way Operation Chaos would have made a bit of difference, because people would have more incentive to get the candidate they want elected than sabotage the opposition. I think since McCain clinched the nomination, Operation Chaos has been quite successful. Rush told his supporters to vote for Hillary, and there’s strong evidence that a whole lot of them did in places where it might have mattered most - Texas and Pennsylvania. [/QUOTE] That may be true in Texas, where anyone can vote in any primary, but it’s not so easy in Pennsylvania. Texas does not require voters to declare a party affiliation; PA does. Voters must declare a party when registering to vote, and when a voter wants to vote in another primary, he must re-register. There is no online option to do so, so the voter must fill out a paper form then mail or bring it back to the county elections office by the set deadline, which in the case of this year’s primary was March 24th. It’s not a major hassle, but it is a hassle, and most people don’t go through that to maintain the status quo. In any event, Clinton was supposed to blow Obama out of the water in PA and he managed to keep it to 10 points, including winning Ed Rendell’s Philadelphia. Robin ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/8 "2008-05-18T19:03:30Z")
[QUOTE=Rhythmdvl] Isn’t another measure of success keeping HRC in the race and keeping the Democrats fighting rather than rallying around a single candidate? That is, is the protracted primary debacle detrimental to the Democratic candidates/party? (Isn’t that an entire thread?) Did enough OCers participate in the primaries to make a statistically significant difference? If so, was that statistical difference enough to keep her in the race? [/QUOTE] I started a tangental thread about this in GD. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/9 "2008-05-18T19:24:09Z")
[QUOTE=MsRobyn] That may be true in Texas, where anyone can vote in any primary, but it’s not so easy in Pennsylvania. Texas does not require voters to declare a party affiliation; PA does. Voters must declare a party when registering to vote, and when a voter wants to vote in another primary, he must re-register. There is no online option to do so, so the voter must fill out a paper form then mail or bring it back to the county elections office by the set deadline, which in the case of this year’s primary was March 24th. It’s not a major hassle, but it is a hassle, and most people don’t go through that to maintain the status quo. In any event, Clinton was supposed to blow Obama out of the water in PA and he managed to keep it to 10 points, including winning Ed Rendell’s Philadelphia. Robin [/QUOTE] Lots and lots of people changed party affiliations to vote in the dem primary in Pennsylvania, and a whole lot more of those voted for Hillary than polls suggested or anyone predicted. I think it’s safe to say a significant number of those party-changers registered Democrat to try to sabotage the election there. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/10 "2008-05-18T20:29:43Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I started a tangental thread about this in GD. [/QUOTE] Link for the interested: [Why is there a Democratic split in the U.S. and how do we heal it before November?](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=468512) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/11 "2008-05-18T20:45:52Z")
[QUOTE=Rhythmdvl] Isn’t another measure of success keeping HRC in the race and keeping the Democrats fighting rather than rallying around a single candidate? [/QUOTE] Yes, but that’s a two-edged sword. So long as it goes on, McCain gets relatively little attention. The Obama-Clinton fight comes to look like the **real** fight, with the November election a mere formality or sideshow, Dem victory a foregone conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/12 "2008-05-18T21:01:15Z")
Did it happen? Sure. Did enough Limbaugh Republicans vote to make even a 1% shift? Erm… maybe, although I kind of doubt it. However, the only state where it _might_ have made a difference was in Texas, but with the final results of 51-47, I really doubt there was a 4%+ Operation Chaos shift. As for the other states, Ohio wasn’t close. Pennsylvania wasn’t close. Republican “sabotage” voting or not, the results would have been the same in terms of Clinton staying in the race. Indiana was a squeaker and I could accept that, without Operation Chaos, Indiana might have been a tiny Obama win but it didn’t make any difference. A tiny Obama win in Indiana wouldn’t have made changed the game any more than the tiny Obama loss did. Clinton would have still stayed in for W. Virginia & Kentucky. Her campaign would have been declared dead by the media either way. So I’m sure some Limbaugh listeners did it but it didn’t affect the actual Democratic primary race at all. Made for good ratings and ego-stroking exercise for Rush though, I’m sure. ---
**Author:** ![MsRobyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/90ced4/32.png) [@MsRobyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsRobyn)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/13 "2008-05-18T22:01:47Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] Lots and lots of people changed party affiliations to vote in the dem primary in Pennsylvania, and a whole lot more of those voted for Hillary than polls suggested or anyone predicted. I think it’s safe to say a significant number of those party-changers registered Democrat to try to sabotage the election there. [/QUOTE] What? [The Real Clear Politics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls) site for the PA primary shows a Clinton win by as much as 13 points immediately before the primary, and polls before that had her winning by larger margins than what she eventually got; everyone in PA was surprised that Obama had done as well as he had. Having survived the Democratic primary with its saturation advertising, constant discussion and stumping by national-level officials, I think it’s safe to say that Rush’s influence, if he had one, was minimal. Chalk it up to the usual frantic campaigning that happens in large, delegate-rich states. Robin ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2008, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/14 "2008-05-19T02:48:01Z")
Once again, methinks that the fat gasbag has an inflated view od his own self-importance. And this story does nothing to diminish the idea that his listeners are nothing more than unthinking sheep. I sincerely hope that he doesn’t encourage them to committ suicide if Obama wins in November, because quite a few will no doubt do as he says. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2008, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/15 "2008-05-19T13:04:31Z")
[QUOTE=Frostillicus] And this story does nothing to diminish the idea that his listeners are nothing more than unthinking sheep. I sincerely hope that he doesn’t encourage them to committ suicide if Obama wins in November, because quite a few will no doubt do as he says. [/QUOTE] Hmmm . . . Oh, aherm, yes, I sincerely hope so too. That he does not, that is. That he does not. (_sigh_) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2008, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-operation-chaos-really-effective-rush-limbaugh-thread/449727/16 "2008-05-19T13:34:40Z")
[This article](http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080602/nichols) reports that Obama actually got a lot of sincere Pub crossover votes in Indiana (implying he will get even more in the general). > [@](#): > > Far more significant than Limbaugh’s gambit is the fact that Obama attracted tens of thousands of sincere Republican cross-overs in Indiana, continuing a trend that has been evident from the start of the Democratic race. Since January–when Republicans who caucused in Iowa as Democrats told pollsters they favored Obama four to one over Clinton–the Illinois senator has been the steadiest beneficiary of GOP crossover votes. That was particularly true in the primaries of states where the presidency is likely to be won or lost this fall. In Missouri, where Obama narrowly beat Clinton on February 5, his strength among Republicans who took Democratic ballots–they favored him 75 to 21–can reasonably be said to have given him the win. In Virginia a week later, Republicans favored Obama 72 to 23. And in Wisconsin his crossover advantage was 72 to 28. Even in Ohio, where Limbaugh pressed his “chaos” campaign aggressively, exit pollsters found that as many Republicans backed Obama as Clinton. > > Are these “Obamicans” conservatives who see the Illinois senator as a fellow traveler? There’s little evidence of that. Prominent Republicans who have endorsed Obama sound themes I’ve heard from crossover voters in numerous states. Former Senator Lincoln Chafee says Obama is “the best candidate…to restore our confidence to be moral and just, and to bring people together to solve the complex issues such as the economy, the environment and global stability.” Recalling her grandfather’s concerns about a military-industrial complex, Susan Eisenhower says Obama is best prepared to address the fact that “we are disliked overseas and feel insecure at home…[that] our federal budget hemorrhages red ink and our civil liberties are eroded.” > > Obama has consistently been portrayed in most media as more liberal than Clinton, but he has won crossover votes not by triangulating or presenting himself as some kind of DLC “New Democrat.” Rather, he has preached diplomacy, social tolerance and racial reconciliation–themes familiar to old-school moderates and the Rockefeller Republicans so derided by current GOP leaders. That’s something the Obama camp should take to heart as it plots fall campaign strategy. Republican crossover voting has been a constant in the Democratic race. While Limbaugh’s intervention may have boosted Clinton’s GOP numbers at the end, hundreds of thousands of Republicans have been casting enthusiastic ballots for Obama. They have done so in particularly high numbers in some of what will be the fall’s most competitive swing states: Missouri, Wisconsin and Virginia. If they do so again in November, crossover Republicans could be essential members of a winning Democratic coalition.