# Is Osama already captured? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 18, 2004, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911 "2004-09-18T22:39:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![clayton\_e](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c57346/32.png) [@clayton\_e](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clayton_e)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2004, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/1 "2004-09-18T22:39:42Z")
I don’t know if this has been covered here, a search didn’t come up with much. Is it at all likely that Osama is already captured? I know my first thought on the subject is that if they got him they would immedietly let it be known, but with the election so close a little bit of delay and the message “Was captured by Afghani people.” could make it seem like it happened a few days from the election. Is it at all likely Bush has him in a cage on some base just waiting for a few weeks? He already tried (at least some say) to try and get high profile terrorists captured at the time of the DNC. ---
**Author:** ![ruadh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@ruadh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ruadh)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2004, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/2 "2004-09-18T22:53:07Z")
Well if he is, the Republicans better hope that by the time they make the announcement things haven’t gone so haywire all over the world that nobody even cares anymore about OBL. One ironic side effect to the “War on Terror” - OBLs are a dime a dozen these days. ---
**Author:** ![kellner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/c2a13f/32.png) [@kellner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kellner)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2004, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/3 "2004-09-18T22:53:34Z")
What I always wonder about this theory is, how is it supposed to work unless he is silently killed? If he gets any kind of trial he would probably let us know whether he was kept hidden for months. Even if his credibility isn’t perfect, that could turn out very embarrassing. ---
**Author:** ![clayton\_e](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c57346/32.png) [@clayton\_e](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clayton_e)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/4 "2004-09-19T00:11:15Z")
Yeah, they could just hold onto him over there then shoot him. How much higher did his rating go after Saddam was captured? Just a few days before the election could put President Bush ahead in the swing states. The left would cry foul but if they’re careful about it they could make it look like it was done at that time without any evidence. But if this whole thing were to happen there would have to cover up _any_ evidence to the contrary. Now _that_ makes the whole thing unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Mehitabel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mehitabel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mehitabel)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/5 "2004-09-19T00:17:29Z")
Bearing in mind that, whatever your politics, the capture of this goddamned butcher is A Good Thing for the World (I spent 9/11/04 on a tour of Tribeca that included Ground Zero)…I don’t see how it could be kept a secret. Somebody always talks. Somebody always notices. Somebody sees something. Especially in that part of the world. ---
**Author:** ![Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kel_Varnsen_Latex_Division)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/6 "2004-09-19T00:20:43Z")
> [@](#): > > Bearing in mind that, whatever your politics, the capture of this goddamned butcher is A Good Thing for the World I wonder if your politics are those of bin Laden, would this capture be a good thing for the world? I think not. ---
**Author:** ![Mehitabel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mehitabel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mehitabel)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/7 "2004-09-19T00:22:57Z")
Well, yeah, I’m talking about the Dems and Reps on this board. My apologies to the fringe-ists out there. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/8 "2004-09-19T00:26:03Z")
Among other problems with the October surprise theory, there’s one big one. If Bush was actually planning on doing this, he would mention bin Laden a lot more often. He would use every speech and every commercial as an opportunity to remind us that bin Laden is the real big bad guy. But these days you could follow the GOP closely and barely even guess that any such person as bin Laden exists, so I doubt we’ve got him sitting around anywhere. I could be wrong, of course. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/9 "2004-09-19T00:30:07Z")
> [@clayton\_e](#): > > Is Osama already captured? [Osama is already dead](http://www.dawn.com/2004/09/11/top5.htm) according to the Pakistani Information minister > [@](#): > > information minister said he believed that Osama bin Laden was dead while there were evidences that Ayman Al Zawahiri and Mulla Omar were alive. “I am saying this not on the basis of any information or news. It is my analysis as a political activist,” he said. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/10 "2004-09-19T03:14:15Z")
The “Osama is already dead” theories are all based on the fact that we haven’t gotten any new tapes of him for over six months, not on finding a body, witness testimony, or anything else concrete. That article doesn’t present any new evidence, as far as I can tell. It could be that he’s just refrained from providing new tapes because he wants us to think he’s dead so that the pressure on the Afghanistan/Pakistan border region will be relaxed. ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/11 "2004-09-19T14:53:03Z")
Well, _a lot_ of the theory that OBL is now a DNA sample is based off of the fact that we hit a couple of key sites successfully (I got to see the gun camera, woo!). The doubt comes into play when we don’t have an accurate BDA to confirm the damage. > [@kellner](#): > > If he gets any kind of trial he would probably let us know whether he was kept hidden for months. Even if his credibility isn’t perfect, that could turn out very embarrassing. Assuming he wasn’t held for months, what’s to keep him from blabbing to the press that he was? I could catch him tomorrow, and treat him to a seven course meal, but he would end up screaming “police brutality” and that he was held for months against his will. His _dis_information wouldn’t mean a thing except to his followers, and that’s what scares me. Tripler Unfortunately, I believe it’s only a matter of time before his followers start suicide bombing the U.S. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/12 "2004-09-19T16:16:39Z")
> [@clayton\_e](#): > > Yeah, they could just hold onto him over there then shoot him. How much higher did his rating go after Saddam was captured? Just a few days before the election could put President Bush ahead in the swing states. President Bush is already ahead in the swing states. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/13 "2004-09-20T16:01:07Z")
If Osama is captured or killed before the election, the left will scream about conspiracies and “October Suprises” to the high heavens. The truth won’t matter. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/14 "2004-09-20T16:05:21Z")
> [@Mehitabel](#): > > I don’t see how it could be kept a secret. Somebody always talks. Somebody always notices. Somebody sees something. Especially in that part of the world. An Iranian news agency was saying that the Pakistani army had captured him earlier this year… but of course the stories were dismissed because it was an Iranian news agency. ---
**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/15 "2004-09-20T17:40:38Z")
> [@Mehitabel](#): > > Well, yeah, I’m talking about the Dems and Reps on this board. My apologies to the fringe-ists out there. I like that we’re polite on this board, even to members of Al Qaeda. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/16 "2004-09-20T17:50:00Z")
If captured, it would be very hard to keep it secret and very embarrassing if they tried. He may be dead- who cares? Terrorism made Osama, not the other way around. If he is dead there are a thousand more where he came from. ---
**Author:** ![Contrapuntal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e274bd/32.png) [@Contrapuntal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Contrapuntal)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/17 "2004-09-20T18:09:26Z")
> [@Kel Varnsen - Latex Division](#): > > I wonder if your politics are those of bin Laden, would this capture be a good thing for the world? I think not. And what, praytell, are the politics of bin Laden? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/18 "2004-09-20T18:20:18Z")
I’m no lover of Bush (to put it mildly), but the theory that Bin Laden was captured ages ago and is being kept on ice for an “October surprise” strains credulity to the breaking point. If Bin laden were captured Bush would no doubt through his elbow out while patting himself on the back for the collar. He would trumpet “his” success from sea to shining sea as soon as the capture was confirmed. He would not need to wait and time the announcement. Furthermore, to hide OBL away for months (years, or whatever) would risk the possibility of a huge scandal erupting right before the election. Makes no sense. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/19 "2004-09-20T18:38:08Z")
Just a “me too” for Lance. I find the belief that the Republicans are keeping him on ice for an October Surprise is preposterous for the reason he gave, and you guys know how much I love a good conspiracy theory! ---
**Author:** ![clayton\_e](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c57346/32.png) [@clayton\_e](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clayton_e)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911/20 "2004-09-20T20:04:13Z")
Ok, so the consensus is that he hasn’t been captured. I hope that he is, and I hold onto the bit of hope that he won’t be used as a political tool. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-osama-already-captured/264911.md?page=2)