# Is presidential aging an urban myth? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [January 20, 2009, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178 "2009-01-20T18:56:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/41 "2009-01-24T06:28:43Z")
> [@Northern Piper](#): > > Ford at the other extreme lived for 29 years after leaving office. He was also President for a very short time. > [@astorian](#): > > I mean, look at Al Gore. He’s DEFINITELY gone to seed in the past eight years, even though he wasn’t in the White House. He’s noticeably older and fatter. Is that because he’s so stressed out from global warming? Or is it just that, like most men his age, he’s starting to show his years? Gore has aged, no doubt about it, but Bush looks one hell of a lot older, and the age difference between them is quite small. ---
**Author:** ![lissener](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lissener/32/6139_2.png) [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 7:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/42 "2009-01-24T07:59:33Z")
Can I nitpick here, and point out that the word “urban” is completely unnecessary in the OP? It’s misused in fact. Thanks. End of grammar hijack. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/43 "2009-01-24T13:24:31Z")
glad you found it interesting. [QUOTE=Puddleglum] Are the figures for for life expectancy at birth or life expectancy at retirement age? [/QUOTE] > [@Chronos](#): > > Remember, life expectancy includes the possibility of dying of SIDS three days after birth, and of dying of measles at age 5, and of falling out of a tree and breaking your neck at age 8, and crashing a car off a bridge at age 17, and so on, and anyone who’s running for President has already gotten past a lot of those situations. What you need isn’t the average life expectancy, but the average life expectancy _of someone who’s already lived to adulthood_. [QUOTE=regginbrow] In addition, I’m sure there is a huge selective effect impacting presidential candidates. Very few diabetic, obese, malignant cancer having, etc. people tend to run for president, so there is a strong bias for presidential candidates to be healthier than the average population. In addition, economic status needs to be taken into account, as life expectancy is highly correlated with personal wealth, and presidential candidates also tend to be in the highest tax brackets. [/QUOTE] These are all fair points. As far as I can tell from the article (not being an actuary and all), it’s life expectancy at birth. And I certainly agree that candidates for presidency are already culled for reasonably healthy people who can withstand the rigours of campaigning. Both of those points suggest that my plus/minus ratings are a bit too generous. However, I do think that my analysis is a bit more rigourous than the pundits looking at before and after pictures and saying, “wow - he’s aged a lot in eight years” - well yeah, and so have I, and so have you… 🙂 [QUOTE=regginbrow] Edit: Another MAJOR factor, already mentioned by Northern Piper, is access to the highest quality health care at a moment’s notice. I don’t think the impact this has on increasing life expectancy can be overstated, which is why I’m mentioning it again [/QUOTE] In fact, this point may go the other way - given the quality of the health care, perhaps being President is good for your health? ---
**Author:** ![regginbrow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ba9def/32.png) [@regginbrow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/regginbrow)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/44 "2009-01-24T15:05:17Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > However, I do think that my analysis is a bit more rigourous than the pundits looking at before and after pictures and saying, “wow - he’s aged a lot in eight years” - well yeah, and so have I, and so have you… 🙂 No argument here. > [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > In fact, this point may go the other way - given the quality of the health care, perhaps being President is good for your health? To go even further, if the stresses associated with the job do not, in fact, have a significant impact on health, then this would certainly be the case. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/45 "2009-01-24T15:11:26Z")
> [@lissener](#): > > Can I nitpick here, and point out that the word “urban” is completely unnecessary in the OP? It’s misused in fact. Thanks. End of grammar hijack. Well, the White House is in Washington, D.C., isn’t it? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/46 "2009-01-24T17:55:56Z")
Let’s use the First Ladies as a comparison…have they aged on par with their husbands? I would submit no…Laura Bush looks pretty much the same, and Hillary, I think has gotten older (the bags under her eyes are getting more and more pronounced) but I think that’s more her Senate seat and run for President. ---
**Author:** ![WhyNot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c77e96/32.png) [@WhyNot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WhyNot)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/47 "2009-01-24T17:57:47Z")
> [@ivylass](#): > > Let’s use the First Ladies as a comparison…have they aged on par with their husbands? I would submit no…Laura Bush looks pretty much the same, and Hillary, I think has gotten older (the bags under her eyes are getting more and more pronounced) but I think that’s more her Senate seat and run for President. Well…but women and men age so differently, especially with access to facials and makeup people. (Okay, so the men also have access to those things, but the poor things also have all that testosterone mucking things up, and they’re less likely to avail themselves of youthening techniques, I’d think.) ---
**Author:** ![Duhkecco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/8491ac/32.png) [@Duhkecco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duhkecco)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/48 "2009-01-24T18:07:05Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Remember, life expectancy includes the possibility of dying of SIDS three days after birth, and of dying of measles at age 5, and of falling out of a tree and breaking your neck at age 8, and crashing a car off a bridge at age 17, and so on, and anyone who’s running for President has already gotten past a lot of those situations. To be more precise, life expectancy _at birth_ includes the possibility of all those types of death. Also, in terms of life expectancy, anyone who’s running for President has already gotten past \*all \*(not “a lot of”) those situations that could have resulted in his death. 😉 > [@](#): > > What you need isn’t the average life expectancy, but the average life expectancy _of someone who’s already lived to adulthood_. What you need isn’t life expectancy at birth but life expectancy at the age that the President took office. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/49 "2009-01-24T21:08:08Z")
> [@](#): > > Also, in terms of life expectancy, anyone who’s running for President has already gotten past all (not “a lot of”) those situations that could have resulted in his death. He’s gotten past those specific situations I listed, but those were just examples. He hasn’t gotten past all of the situations that can cause death, because someone who’s managed that is immortal. > [@](#): > > What you need isn’t life expectancy at birth but life expectancy at the age that the President took office. Yes, but that makes it harder to compare, since each president is a different age on assuming the office. So I’m working off of the assumption that life expectancy doesn’t change much in adulthood, until you start getting into old age. ---
**Author:** ![Rilchiam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/2bfe46/32.png) [@Rilchiam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rilchiam)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/50 "2009-01-24T21:33:33Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > And I certainly agree that candidates for presidency are already culled for reasonably healthy people who can withstand the rigours of campaigning. JFK was in poor health during his campaign and presidency. Now I’m wondering how long he would have lived if he hadn’t been assassinated. ---
**Author:** ![Duhkecco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/8491ac/32.png) [@Duhkecco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duhkecco)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/51 "2009-01-24T23:45:07Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Yes, but that makes it harder to compare, since each president is a different age on assuming the office. So I’m working off of the assumption that life expectancy doesn’t change much in adulthood, until you start getting into old age. Bad assumption. Here are some numbers from the U.S. Social Security [Period Life Table, 2004](http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html), showing Male Life Expectancy at various ages: Age 20: 55.88 Age 30: 46.58 Age 40: 37.28 Age 50: 28.46 Age 60: 20.36 Age 65: 16.67 Age 70: 13.27 ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/52 "2009-01-25T04:29:04Z")
> [@Rilchiam](#): > > JFK was in poor health during his campaign and presidency. Now I’m wondering how long he would have lived if he hadn’t been assassinated. The historian Richard Reeves, in his excellent _President Kennedy_, thoroughly reviewed JFK’s health and medical records. He concluded that Kennedy’s life was not in any particular danger from his various maladies and that he might still have lived a long time, but that without additional surgery, his bad back might have confined him to a wheelchair within a few years’ time. Kennedy was adamant that he could not campaign for reelection in 1964 from a wheelchair, but with daily physical therapy and frequent injections of a drug cocktail (the exact contents of which still aren’t fully known) directly into his spine, he still suffered from severe and chronic back pain at the time of his death. ---
**Author:** ![Duhkecco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/8491ac/32.png) [@Duhkecco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duhkecco)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/53 "2009-01-25T04:41:26Z")
:smack: I left out a column, namely, age at death: Age 20: 55.88 75.88 Age 30: 46.58 76.58 Age 40: 37.28 77.28 Age 50: 28.46 78.46 Age 60: 20.36 80.36 Age 65: 16.67 81.67 Age 70: 13.27 83.27 Not a huge difference in the age range at which Presidents first took office. I’ll give this to **Chronos**. (Still, it took be taken into account in determining whether Presidents age more quickly while in office.) And, although the numbers are as of 2004, it seems reasonable to assume that, even with increases in longevity, the overall pattern would have been similar in the past century. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/54 "2009-01-25T13:40:57Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Fascinating analysis, **Northern Piper** - thanks! You should submit that to the SDMB powers that be - there’s the core of a great Staff Report there. ego sum non dignus. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178/55 "2009-01-25T13:53:40Z")
> [@scifisam2009](#): > > That’s a really intersting post, but I thought the OP (with comments about photos and so on) was asking about visible sgns of aging, not whether Presidents and former Presidents live longer or not. I took the OP to be asking if being President ages the incumbent more than would be expected, and that the talking heads were just showing before and after pictures to make this point. [QUOTE=CookingWithGas] In the last few days I have heard several talking heads bring out the old saw about how the office ages the presidents before their time. Just now on ABC they showed a couple of before/after pictures of Bush. [/QUOTE] My reaction to the talking heads is that there must be a more objective way to analyze the issue. Most presidents are in their later forties or fifties when they get elected - that happens to be a stage in one’s life when there are signs of aging, more than at other times (e.g. - grey hair starts to show, which can have a dramatic effect on one’s appearence.) Just basing the theory on appearence, without a comparison to others of the same group, doesn’t seem very effective. If the presidency does age the incumbent, I would expect it to show up in how long they live after the presidency, compared to their cohort. A key problem, as other posters have pointed out, is defining the appropriate comparator group. Unfortunately, I have neither the professional ability, nor the access to the necessary types of data, to do anything more than a back of the envelope review. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-presidential-aging-an-urban-myth/482178.md?page=2)