# Is Putin crazy enough to move into the Baltic countries? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 23, 2022, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022 "2022-02-23T21:34:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/21 "2022-02-24T04:37:17Z")
I feel Putin may be amoral but I’ve never felt he was crazy or stupid. And attacking NATO would be crazy and stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/22 "2022-02-24T04:41:43Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I know the US would, but I’m not as sure about all of our European friends, especially the citizens of some of the NATO members. Germany springs to mind. Would they be willing to take the losses, both economic and military to take back the Baltic states? Or would they rather see NATO and any alliance with the US go down the tubes? If Russia starts invading other countries in Europe, I think we would see a massive upswing in support for NATO in Germany and all of the other countries in central and eastern Europe. There’s nothing like the threat of invasion to remind people of the value of having allies. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/23 "2022-02-24T05:37:25Z")
Europe might not be crazy about the idea of fighting Russia in the Balkans, but not fighting is even worse - it renders NATO toothless and essentially gives Putin the green light to roll his tanks all the way to Gibraltar. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/24 "2022-02-24T10:03:13Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Europe might not be crazy about the idea of fighting Russia in the Balkans NATO would love a fight in the Balkans. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/25 "2022-02-24T10:14:34Z")
It would be immense stupidity to fight in the Baltics for NATO, militarily speaking. Its pretty much undefendable. Best case scenario is [another Courland pocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Courland_Pocket) . Frankly, in a war, after token resistance, NATO’s most likely action would be to withdraw to a line behind the Vistula and the Carpathian mountains, giving up everything east of it. And await the US buildup. It woiuld be madness to try and defend anything across that, it asking to be Courlanded and Bagration’ed. And seeing the Russians on the Rhine two weeks later ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/26 "2022-02-24T10:20:14Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > And await the US buildup. You assume the US buildup would happen after the invasion. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/27 "2022-02-24T10:38:24Z")
Yes. The **checks notes** 4 combat brigades the US has in Europe aren’t going to do jack. To sent the Russkies back you need to to three corps of heavy armour and mechanised forces, like Desert Storm. Add to that the REFORGER stocks are long gone, you ae looking at a build up of several months. Add to that Russian attempts to interdict the build up. The good news for NATO is this that unlike at the Fulda gap, they can trade space for time here. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/28 "2022-02-24T10:54:30Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I feel Putin may be amoral but I’ve never felt he was crazy or stupid. And attacking NATO would be crazy and stupid. From watching the news these past few days… especially Putin’s address last night… I’m getting the feeling that Putin is a very Trumplike figure who has a Trumplike relationship with his state media. They tell one another what they need to hear, they’re high on their own supply, increasingly divorced from reality. Putin came up through Russia’s security establishment, not real-estate scams, so he has that advantage relative to Trump. Otherwise, the delusions and behavior patterns are very comparable. By all accounts, Putin is not a terribly smart man. Like most despots he seems to be good at accumulating power. Domestically, this works for a while. But when they inevitably brush against international conflicts, they are at a loss to make smart decisions because international consensus reality looks nothing like what they had in their heads. This happened with Trump, and I suspect it’s happening with Putin now. Putin didn’t expect the degree of military and economic pushback he got. He’s painted himself into an ugly corner, and none of us should feel good about that reality. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/29 "2022-02-24T11:06:33Z")
^ Once again I am seeing westerners being unable to comprehend a world view, which is different than their own. Would have thought Iraq/Afghanistan had forced some introspection, but I guess not Putin is very rational. He is a calculating bastard. He is betting that any sanctions won’t last long post the disappearance of this from the headlines. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/30 "2022-02-24T11:10:27Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > He is betting that any sanctions won’t last long post the disappearance of this from the headlines. This is the largest military engagement in Europe since 1945 and the single largest news story in the world right now. What do you think’s going to come along to knock it out of the headlines? The Second Coming? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/31 "2022-02-24T11:13:55Z")
Covid’s next surge? The US election? (Are the Kardashians still around?) 🙄 The normal news cycle. Once the situation changes from a rapidly developing one to a more steady state (either because the Russians have taken over or stopped) it will inevitably recede. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/32 "2022-02-24T11:17:24Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Once again I am seeing westerners being unable to comprehend a world view, which is different than their own. ??? The consensus I see among Westerners is the same as you’re espousing - that Putin is hyper-rational and a good schemer. I’m suggesting that this isn’t universally true, and begins to break down the further he gets into contentious international relations. It would be comfortable to think that Putin is a very rational actor. He controls a civilization-ending amount of military armament. The alternative is too horrible to contemplate, but it may very well be true. > [@](#): > > Would have thought Iraq/Afghanistan had forced some introspection, but I guess not What lessons from Iraq/Afghanistan do you think apply here? Please be specific. And I don’t mean your knee-jerk habit of assuming that because one group of people believed one political faction’s lies in 2003, therefore everyone opposing the west is always correct. It’s both lazy and obtuse, and it’s an accusation you keep making without bothering to engage with any logic or substance. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/33 "2022-02-24T11:17:35Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > The normal news cycle. Remind me as to when (and if) 9/11 fell out of the headlines and everybody forgot about it and quietly dropped all the sanctions. 'Cause where I live we still gotta take off our shoes at the airport and fit all our liquids into a Ziploc bag. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/34 "2022-02-24T11:22:30Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > The normal news cycle. Once the situation changes from a rapidly developing one to a more steady state (either because the Russians have taken over or stopped) it will inevitably recede. In the “normal news cycle”, the American government just retaliated against Afghanistan with at $7 billion sanction, confiscating funds rightfully belonging to its central bank, giving them to families who were affected by 9/11 (which was 21 years ago). The West (or at least the US) has a bottomless well of grievance and resentment. You hold yourself up as some sort of sharp-eyed skeptic of Western rhetoric and you’re not aware of this? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/35 "2022-02-24T11:25:04Z")
You answered your own question. Moment Afghanistan evacuation ended, it fell from the headlines and Biden was able to basically throw the country to the dogs. Ditto. Once Ukraine crises is over, the sanctions applied will probably be quietly lifted. No Euro leader can live with super expensive gas and commodity prices, oil is over a 100, European wheat prices are at the highest since the 1970;s. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/36 "2022-02-24T11:28:07Z")
You’re evading because you have no substantial insights to offer beyond “Iraq bad.” ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/37 "2022-02-24T11:29:12Z")
I pressed reply too early. Answered completely now. (And add Libya, Syria, Yemen to “Iraq bad”). ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/38 "2022-02-24T11:30:27Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > (And add Libya, Syria, Yemen to “Iraq bad”). The “Iraq bad” argument is worth zero. Four times zero is still zero. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/39 "2022-02-24T11:31:01Z")
tell me. Was Afghanistan a continent spanning nuclear armed super power, and producer of a significant amount of fossil fuels and commodities, at a time when the prices of both are skyrocketing? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022/40 "2022-02-24T11:31:35Z")
Still an apologist I see. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-putin-crazy-enough-to-move-into-the-baltic-countries/960022.md?page=3)