# Is ROTK a shoo-in for Oscar? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [February 19, 2003, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086 "2003-02-19T06:44:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/21 "2003-02-19T17:32:02Z")
> [@](#): > > _astorian says:_ 1) It doesn’t have major Hollywood power brokers touting it. ANY piece of crud that Harvey Weinstein distributes next year has a better shot at winning the Oscar than ROTK. Even when a Weinstein flick is NEITHER a big hit NOR critically acclaimed (“Chocolat” and “Cider House Rules” were neither), it’s an Oscar contender because Harvey SAYS it’s an Oscar contender. FYI, Weinstein has an Executive Producer credit on the LOTR trilogy. > [@](#): > > 1. Peter Jackson is an outsider, a foreigner, and he isn’t part of the Hollywood scene. Hollywood is extremely insular, and loath to reward someone who isn’t “one of their own.” The mere fact that he wasn’t nominated for Best Director (despite the fact that “The Two Towers” is more director-driven than any of the other contenders and EVERYTHING in the film flows from Jackson’s vision) speaks volumes: he doesn’t command respect in Hollywood. Actually, you cite Merchant/Ivory later in your post, who are not Hollywood product either. The fact remains that Hollywood has not been very receptive to foreign-_language_ filmmakers, but tend to fall all over themselves for prestige pictures from other English-language countries, primarily the UK but sometimes even New Zealand (witness **The Piano** ). And an equally valid interpretation for Jackson’s Director snub is that they knew he had another installment coming and they didn’t want to “throw away” a nomination on the same guy 3 years in a row. Plus, he obviously commands _some_ respect in Hollywood because he did pull a Picture nomination, which requires the support of the entire Academy (as opposed to the Director nod which requires the support of the much smaller Director’s branch). > [@](#): > > 1. The LOTR series just isn’t the KIND of movie the Hollywood establishment likes to embrace. The Hollywood establishment wants to vote for the kind of movie David Lean and Merchant/Ivory specialize in: lush, historical epics, period pieces, preferably with a politically correct, feel-good message. Fantasy films, no matter how good or how successful, just aren’t going to appeal to older Hollywood veterans. See, but LOTR _is_ a lush, historical epic period piece. Sure, it’s a fantasy, but it still fits much closer to what the Academy recognizes than, say, a **Blade Runner** or **Star Wars**. I also find the whole “they’ve never recognized a fantasy film before” argument pretty tepid since they said the same thing about westerns (“It’s been 50 years…”) until **Dances With Wolves** won, or Horror movies before **Silence of the Lambs** took it. The composition of the Academy is changing, and are more open to things than they were 20 years ago. > [@](#): > > And that’s what Thalberg awards are for. No, the Thalberg is for a lifetime achievement in producing. It has not recognized an individual film achievement in 50 years (or are you suggesting Jackson will get one 30 years from now?) > [@](#): > > Best Pictures usually get their actors nominated. Usually, but not \ **Braveheart** \ always. Remember, ROTK is not a “sequel” in the traditional sense, since all three movies were filmed simultaneously. What are the odds that the days they happened to be filming ROTK were “off” days and the other two films were “on”? Pretty low. Outside of something catastrophic, it is perfectly reasonable to expect the last film to be as good as the other two without claiming any special clairvoyant powers. ---
**Author:** ![plnnr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@plnnr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/plnnr)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/22 "2003-02-19T17:56:36Z")
“And that’s what Thalberg awards are for.” Not really. The Irving Thalberg Award goes to individuals who have made a long lasting contribution, over the span of their careers, to the motion picture industry. Peter Jackson has made a couple of films, and I don’t know that they have all been ‘adored by the critics,’ that have received a tremendous amount of hype and press. I don’t think he’s in the same league as some past Thalberg award winners (e.g., Darryl Zanuck, Alfred Hitchcock, or Bergman). ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/23 "2003-02-19T17:56:58Z")
As I mentioned in a previous similar thread, barring some huge breakout film, “Shindler’s List: The Musical”, I really do think next year is the year. MSNBC agreed recently (can’t find the link) by predicting now that ROTK will win next year. Let’s be honest, whether or not you are a big LOTR fan, you have to admit a three picture, 9+ hour epic that has made tons of money, been a critical hit and is an instant classic certainly will carry weight with the Oscar voters…they do not want to hear, “The idiots never gave the LOTR trilogy a single Best Picture Oscar???” for the next several generations. Furthermore, having worked in the studios and knowing several people who vote, they are very aware of their image. They don’t mind thumbing their noses at poplular choices (ET losing to Ghandi) but they also know what is fair. They really don’t want to piss off a huge contingency of viewers - and I think LOTR fits into that category. I personally think a lot of Academy voters who are LOTR fans didn’t vote for the first film, and won’t vote for this year’s film simply because they are saving their votes for next year. There is a lot of peer pressure within the ranks, and they intend to use all their leverage to make sure it wins next time. Again, unless there is really something spectacular released between now and Christmas, I find it hard to believe ROTK could lose. Even if the film isn’t as good…how often has the Academy given an Oscar to an actor for a mediocre film as a subtle apology for not giving it to them for the good film they did a few years prior. And yes, the fact that Harvey Weinstein has an Executive Producer credit on the LOTR trilogy doesn’t hurt those chances in slightest. ---
**Author:** ![InTransit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e47774/32.png) [@InTransit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/InTransit)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/24 "2003-02-19T18:18:38Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Dangerosa \* > \*\*I hope they give PJ a special acheivement Oscar for the darn thing. \*\* I hope not. I love the movies and I admire what PJ has done to bring it to the screen, but if he’s not going to win Best Director out right, then I hope the Academy doesn’t give him a special achievement award for it. It feels too much like a consolation prize. Of course, PJ may feel differently (or not care at all). The fact that PJ wasn’t nominated for Director this year is slightly problematic. The Oscars are increasingly about honoring someone’s body of work. I hope they recognize PJ next year for the whole thing. Harvey Weinstein is listed as a producer b/c Mirimax had the rights to the movie before NewLine picked it up from PJ and Mark Ordesky (I think) suggested 3 movies instead of 2. I think Harvey wanted one big long one. The deal to sell the rights to NewLine included Harvey being listed as producer (even though he has, as far as I’ve read, nothing to do at all with the movies) and Mirimax getting a couple of percentage of the proceeds. Not shabby. Even if Mirimax puts out nothing but stinkers this year, I don’t expect Harvey to get behind the movie. The OP is right - it’s all about politics. I’d say even the nominations are politically-based. FWIW, barring a horrible industrial accident, RotK has a good shot of being nominated, especially with TTT nominated. But a win? I want to see it, but am not betting on it for many of the reasons that have been articulated above: (1) it’s sci-fi/fantasy, (2) it’s not a feel-good movie, (3) PJ is not an established Hollywood or NY director or a Sundance ingenue, and of course, (4) who knows what movie’s going to come out this Christmas? I’ll still be waving my little PJ/LotR flag though. Unless you know, industrial accident. ---
**Author:** ![BrentLumkin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9d8465/32.png) [@BrentLumkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrentLumkin)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/25 "2003-02-19T18:34:48Z")
Not to sound so short, but if TTT wins Best Picture this year, I will be very enraged. There was more than one film more deserving of that award, instead of TTT. I loved it, don’t get me wrong, but it just didn’t hit me as Best Picture. Perhaps the next one will, as it will have closure to the series, and who knows, they might get off on that, heh. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/26 "2003-02-19T18:36:26Z")
I expect ROTK would have to really screw the pooch to avoid a Best Picture _nomination_, but IMHO, it’s possible. If it’s as much of a step down from TTT as TTT was from FOTR, then it might only get minor-award nominations. And despite the fact that we’ll get the emotional lift of a conclusion at the end of ROTK, I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that it will be better than, or even as good as, TTT. PJ made an action/adventure movie out of FOTR, which was more of a character-and-suspense book. TTT was the perfect book of the trilogy to make an action/adventure movie from, hence IMHO the easiest one for PJ to do right, yet (IMHO, at least) he made a bit of a hash of it. My expectation is that, whatever you thought of TTT, ROTK will be of about the same quality. That would likely get it a BP nomination, but surely not the Oscar. ---
**Author:** ![BrentLumkin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9d8465/32.png) [@BrentLumkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrentLumkin)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/27 "2003-02-19T18:46:59Z")
Are there any VERY early predictions about what films will be its competition? ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/28 "2003-02-19T18:55:53Z")
DMark, The simple fact that MSNBC is predicting it may screw it with the Academy. They really don’t seem to enjoy being told what to do by outsiders. They can be a very contrary organization. And I really don’t think they care about “the public’s” opinion - particularly the segment of the public that gives a damn about a LotR Best Picture Oscar. They seem to take some sort of perverse pride in having given the second best film of the year the best picture award. If what you say carries any weight, Scorsese will win Best Director this year for Gang’s of New York, because the Academy should be sick of hearing that they haven’t given the best director of his generation an Oscar - and they gave the one he deserved to Kevin Costner. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/29 "2003-02-19T19:40:42Z")
“My expectation is that, whatever you thought of TTT, ROTK will be of about the same quality. That would likely get it a BP nomination, but surely not the Oscar.” Quality has only a rough co-relation with the BP winner. Consider for example Braveheart, Titanic and Dances with Wolves. It’s highly unlikely that ROTK is going to fall below these. And not to criticize your taste or anything but many mainstream critics liked TTT and put it on their top 10 lists. It’s doing very well on IMDB. I think that’s a good indication that there the film has a lot of mainstream appeal which is what Oscars are about. My main reason for believing that ROTK will win is the three-in-a-row factor. It’s going to look awfully odd if LOTR is nominated three years in a row and loses every single time. BTW about films with foreign directors, the academy isn’t as insular as some make it. Think of Gandhi, Chariots of Fire, Last Emperor and English Patient. LOTR is more mainstream than any of those films. ---
**Author:** ![InTransit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e47774/32.png) [@InTransit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/InTransit)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/30 "2003-02-19T19:46:31Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Dangerosa \* > \*\* . . . . If what you say carries any weight, Scorsese will win Best Director this year for Gang’s of New York, because the Academy should be sick of hearing that they haven’t given the best director of his generation an Oscar - and they gave the one he deserved to Kevin Costner. \*\* I don’t know about the Kevin Costner factor, but a lot of people seem to think that the Oscar will go to Martin Scorsese. Opinions on _Gangs of New York_ are all over the place, and I’ve heard that it being nominated for Best Picture at all is an indication that its paving the road for Scorsese. I have no idea, I haven’t seen the movie. I guess the only surefire way we can tell is if he’s seated in the first row, center aisle. ---
**Author:** ![jeevmon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/87869e/32.png) [@jeevmon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jeevmon)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/31 "2003-02-19T20:00:54Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by ArchiveGuy \* > \*\*No, the Thalberg is for a lifetime achievement in producing. It has not recognized an individual film achievement in 50 years (or are you suggesting Jackson will get one 30 years from now?) > \*\* That’s pretty much what I am suggesting. The LOTR trilogy has set the bar for telling epic fantasy stories on the big screen. It’s redefined the art and craft of fantasy movie-making in the same way that “Star Wars” redefined the art and craft of science-fiction or space opera. That will eventually be recognized. ---
**Author:** ![plnnr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@plnnr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/plnnr)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/32 "2003-02-19T20:26:45Z")
“The LOTR trilogy has set the bar for telling epic fantasy stories on the big screen. It’s redefined the art and craft of fantasy movie-making in the same way that “Star Wars” redefined the art and craft of science-fiction or space opera.” Three movies doesn’t make a career. ---
**Author:** ![Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dread_pirate_jimbo/32/3897_2.png) [@Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dread_Pirate_Jimbo)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/33 "2003-02-19T22:19:01Z")
**ArchiveGuy, Zen Postman, Wumpus** : Thank all of you for that short Hitchcock debate. I’m prepared to concede a half Oscar to him for _Rebecca_. I stand by my opinion that the Academy doesn’t like to vote for sequels, however. If FOTR had won, I could have seen a three-year sweep in the making, or two of three, but without the first one, I don’t see them handing out a BP Oscar to either of the sequels. PJ is just going to have to settle for technical awards and the truckloads of money that are being wheeled up to his front door every day. ---
**Author:** ![emarkp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3be4f8/32.png) [@emarkp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emarkp)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/34 "2003-02-19T23:31:17Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Narrad \* > > > [@](#): > > > > _Originally posted by Miller_ > > LotR = Lord of the Rings, which consists of three books/movies: > > \ 🙂 Okay, six books in three volumes. In other words, three books. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jurhael](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/cab0a1/32.png) [@Jurhael](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jurhael)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2003, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/35 "2003-02-20T05:41:52Z")
Who knows? The movie has yet to come out and I don’t know what ROTK is up against. I have no doubt that there will be nominations, but wins? It just depends on the competition. The way I see it as that everything happens for the FIRST time. If ROTK were to win, wouldn’t it make history as the first fantasy/sci-fi film to do so? ---
**Author:** ![jeevmon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/87869e/32.png) [@jeevmon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jeevmon)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2003, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/36 "2003-02-20T15:09:24Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by plnnr \* > \*\*“The LOTR trilogy has set the bar for telling epic fantasy stories on the big screen. It’s redefined the art and craft of fantasy movie-making in the same way that “Star Wars” redefined the art and craft of science-fiction or space opera.” > > Three movies doesn’t make a career. \*\* I would argue that Lucas got his Thalberg on the strength of three movies. I mean, nothing else in his career was really of note (except perhaps Indiana Jones, and I would submit that Indiana Jones was more Spielberg than Lucas). ---
**Author:** ![Fingolfin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/eada6e/32.png) [@Fingolfin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fingolfin)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2003, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/37 "2003-02-20T15:19:55Z")
Speaking of RotK, I found some cool production stills. [http://www.comingsoon.net/cgi-bin/imageFolio.cgi?direct=Fantasy/The\_Lord\_of\_the\_Rings/LOTR\_The\_Return\_of\_the\_King&img=](http://www.comingsoon.net/cgi-bin/imageFolio.cgi?direct=Fantasy/The_Lord_of_the_Rings/LOTR_The_Return_of_the_King&img=) The picture of Gandalf with the sword at the siege of Minas Tirith is just unbelievable! And check out that Smeagol picture! Whoa! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2003, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/38 "2003-02-20T15:48:15Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Dread Pirate Jimbo \* > without the first one, I don’t see them handing out a BP Oscar to either of the sequels. PJ is just going to have to settle for technical awards and the truckloads of money that are being wheeled up to his front door every day. I personally would like to learn to live with that. 🙂 **CyberPundit** - feel free to interpret “quality” in a very loose sense. Let’s just say that, IMHO, ROTK isn’t likely to impress the Academy much more than TTT. Regardless of who likes or doesn’t like TTT, I’m clearly not the only one who thought TTT was a step down from FOTR. Last year, FOTR was [nominated for 13 Oscars](http://us.imdb.com/Tawards?0120737), including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published. This year it was [nominated for six](http://us.imdb.com/Tawards?0167261), with only BP of those mentioned above. (And Best Writing/Previously Published, as a category, is a natural fit for each of these movies. I was genuinely surprised that it wasn’t nominated for that.) Hell, of the four second-rank Oscars that FOTR _won_ last year, TTT didn’t get _nominated_ for three of them. It would seem unlikely that TTT gets the BP award, and by whatever loose standards the Academy judges these things, it sure looks like Jackson would have to raise his game between TTT and ROTK to have a chance to win BP for the concluding episode. If the Academy thinks ROTK is as good as TTT but really not much better, it says here they’re not going to give him BP for ROTK out of some sentiment that he should get _one_ BP out of the trilogy. FWIW, I have to agree with **jeevmon** that three movies indeed makes a career, if they’re the original _Star Wars_ trilogy. ---
**Author:** ![Arden\_Ranger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b487fb/32.png) [@Arden\_Ranger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arden_Ranger)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2003, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/39 "2003-02-20T17:23:01Z")
_sadly marks RT off The List_ ---
**Author:** ![Yookeroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yookeroo/32/323_2.png) [@Yookeroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yookeroo)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2003, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086/40 "2003-02-20T17:56:56Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by RTFirefly \* > \*\*Regardless of who likes or doesn’t like TTT, I’m clearly not the only one who thought TTT was a step down from FOTR. Last year, FOTR was [nominated for 13 Oscars](http://us.imdb.com/Tawards?0120737), including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published. This year it was [nominated for six](http://us.imdb.com/Tawards?0167261), with only BP of those mentioned above. (And Best Writing/Previously Published, as a category, is a natural fit for each of these movies. I was genuinely surprised that it wasn’t nominated for that.) Hell, of the four second-rank Oscars that FOTR _won_ last year, TTT didn’t get _nominated_ for three of them. \*\* 2002 was a much stronger year for movies than 2001. TTT could be better than FOTR in the academy’s eyes and still receive fewer nominations. Counting the nominations isn’t really a valid way to determine what the academy is thinking (compared to the first movie). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-rotk-a-shoo-in-for-oscar/156086.md?page=3)