Where have you been? That’s The Thing People Do these days. They post pictures of their lunch plate to Instagram for Og’s sake, a political encounter of course they will record and post.
Then they can go on their favorite platform and post it with the headline “(individual or group) CAPITALIZED VERBS (political figure) about (issue)”, with the capitalized verb being along the lines of “schools”, “demolishes”, “shuts up”, “busts” etc.
You;re quite possibly right. But possibly -
[list=a][li]People are used to Trump saying stupid things, and not as used to Biden saying stupid things. Trump has said and tweeted so many stupid things that the fatigue factor of outrage overload has kicked in. A Biden gaffe is fresh news.[/li]
If Biden is trying to look above the fray and Presidential, it isn’t going to work if he keeps looking stupid when in the fray.
[li]To the extent that it becomes part of negative campaigning, it may backfire on the Biden campaign as it did, more or less, against the Hillary campaign. Ordinary weapons don’t work against Trump - nobody negative campaigns like he does.[/li][li]Trump seems to say stupid things on purpose. Biden seems to say stupid things without knowing it. Biden has an image to protect; Trump doesn’t. [/list][/li]I don’t think any of this is as significant as that the economy is doing well, and Trump is the incumbent.
ISTM that Biden , as a candidate, is sort of a cross between John Kerry and Hillary Clinton. Kerry was the last man standing after the Dem primaries, and Dems went along with him because he was not-Bush. Hillary - it was “her turn”. (To be fair, I got the same vibe with Bob Dole).
We shall see. The front runner gets the flak, from the other side and from challengers on his/her own side. Trump has no challenger on his side, and the other side has already thrown all the flak available.
It is IMO probable that Biden will get the nom, and it is possible that he will be elected. But it won’t be because he is a brilliant campaigner oozing charisma and vitality or an inspiring speaker.
Regards,
Shodan
Biden only beats Trump if Trump has a major problem like health issue. If Trump’s health is really bad they will find someone else to run. Possibly Pence but could be someone like Rubio.
Trump is gaffe proof. Despite being president his supporters (and others quite frankly) give him a pass because he’s “Not a politician.”
Which, rightly or wrongly, isn’t a pass that Biden is going to get. Because he sure as hell is a politician. And politicians are supposed to better at campaigning than this.
Regards,
Shodan
I fully agree. The problem Trump would have with running against Biden is that he has all of the flaws he can reasonably accuse Biden of.
Trump’s already tried to make a case for Biden being corrupt and practicing nepotism. We can see how well that’s working for him.
If Trump says that Biden isn’t fit to be President because has control issues and says dumb things, people are going to laugh.
Trump’s 73. He can make a huge issue out of Biden’s age without people asking about his own.
Sure, his supporters give him a pass. Trump himself famously said that his supporters would give him a pass if he committed murder.
But if he’s going to win, he has to reach beyond his base of supporters. He has to convince people who don’t automatically give him a pass.
Obviously everyone knew that Hillary would be a force in 2016, but the Democratic bench was pretty weak in 2016 anyway. That 2010 shellacking really hurt as there wasn’t a large pool of senators and governors ready yet. Plus, Biden opted out for 2016 as well.
I’ll admit, I’ve been surprised at Biden retaining so much support. I thought it would be a mile wide and an inch deep and it may very well be, but voting starts Monday and it’ll be fast and furious for a month
And he has. That’s why he is president.
I don’t know how much the weakness of the Dem field was due to the perceived inevitability of Hillary. I believe Biden dropped out because his son died, but he may also have wanted to avoid a divisive primary season.
Sanders was Hillary’s big rival in 2016, and he kind of came out of nowhere. I’m not much for the conspiracy theories of the Bernie Bros, and Hillary would have won (probably) even without the super delegates. But the establishment Democrats were definitely behind Hillary, because of the lock on fund-raising she and Bill had for the DNC.
I don’t think Biden has nearly as much of a lock as Hillary did, but he is still the front-runner. My theory is that people support him mostly because he is the front runner, on momentum. Whether or not his gaffes will overcome the notion that he is the safe bet, I don’t know but I don’t think so. I can’t believe anyone can think Sanders has a chance in the general, they tried a policy wonk woman with no charisma in 2016, and the rest - maybe they will try for another historical first with VP. Like with Gerry Ferraro. :eek:
Regards,
Shodan
Biden did say that the death of his son was why he didn’t run and that may very well be true. He also could have thought about spending weeks in Iowa in 95 degree weather eating corn dogs and decided he’d been in congress since 1972 and VP for 8 years and just didn’t want to deal with it.
Sanders didn’t quite come out of nowhere. He was fairly well known among the activist left. I used to listen to a lot of college radio and I thought it odd that a Congressman would be calling into a college radio show on a Sunday morning to talk politics with some lefty professor. Social media and YouTube helped spread his name as well with his rants on the Senate floor.
Sanders definitely didn’t have much Superdelegate support, but he was hell bent on burning every bridge in Congress. Absolutely no compromises made him quite unpopular even with those who agreed with non politically. That’s why it’s remarkable he could spend so long in Congress and yet get almost no endorsements.
I wonder if anyone below the age of 50 backs Biden. I think for the Iowa caucuses they should have exit polls that break down by age.
I wasn’t a Biden fan when he first ran 30 years ago, and I’m definitely not now. He needs to drop out for the same reason Bernie does - he’s just plain old too old for the job (so is Bloomberg) and IMNSHO he’s just not presidential material in the first place.
That’s about what I expected As most people know people over 50 vote at a much higher rate than young people.
They should vote more, its natural selection by chronological Darwinism.
many 60 and older people are retired so they have plenty of time to vote. A friend went to see our local congressman do a town hall. I asked him how it was and he said it was overrun with retired people asking about social security.
Maybe Sanders’ status as an outsider was why he was willing to challenge the establishment Democrat in 2016. What did he care about the Democratic establishment - he wasn’t a Democrat until he entered the race.
You can see “no compromise!” as standing on principle, certainly, but it doesn’t bode well for getting your agenda enacted if you ever get elected. In 2016 or 2020.
If Sanders is elected, his only chance of any of his ideas into legislation is if Congress not only flips Democrat, both houses, but flips to democratic socialist. Chances are pretty slim that Democrats can get a majority in the Senate. Getting 51 AOC clones in there? Not gonna happen.
Regards,
Shodan
Congress obviously believes that he can ultimately persuade the middle 10-15% of the country to buy into his proposals, but that middle 10-15% percent is going to get cold feet once markets begin to fear his election - and they will.
I like Bernie, and I am grateful for him for reinvigorating the progressive cause. But that doesn’t change the fact that markets are going to fear him, and I have a feeling that people will fear his impact on the economy.
Like many progressives, Bernie favors stability over slower growth - I do too (though I am probably more pro-growth than he is). However, Bernie’s case is going to be a hard sell when the economy is, at least on the surface, performing as well as it has in over a quarter century (and longer ago by some metrics).
Congress thinks this? Bernie’s been in Congress for decades, and has not shown any apparent ability to convince the middle 10-15% of anyone to buy into his proposals.
Given the scope and nature of his proposals, from M4A to higher taxes on capital gains to combating climate change to breaking up financial institutions if they are too big to taxpayer-funded college tuition - “stability” is the last word I would have chosen.
Regards,
Shodan