# Is the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill that big of a problem? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 8, 2010, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452 "2010-06-08T17:35:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![statsman1982](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@statsman1982](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/statsman1982)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/1 "2010-06-08T17:35:05Z")
For the record, I think it is a **_major_ problem** , but I need help supporting my opinion with hard facts in the light of this [list of worst oil spills](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_spill#Largest_oil_spills). I was prompted to look this up after seeing [this video on CNN](http://cnn.com/video/?/video/us/2010/06/08/wian.1910.oil.gusher.cnn) about the Lakeview Gusher in 1910 that lasted _18 months_ and spewed over a million barrels of oil, 100,000 barrels a day at its peak. In the video, a guy whose family has been in the oil business seems to imply that people who are getting worked up about Deepwater Horizon aren’t aware of how much worse it could be. I only saw the video once on the way out to exercise, but it got me thinking. He seems to be a little patronizing to the people who are up in arms about the current spill. Is he correct in acting like this spill isn’t \*that \*big a deal comparatively? Is it just that the U.S. isn’t used to seeing this kind of disaster, so we get all up in arms about it (Exxon Valdez isn’t even on the list, yet it was and is a “big deal”). In other words, is Deepwater Horizon any worse in some way than all of those other spills that countries seem to have gotten over? Is it only a big deal because it’s happening now? How can I respond to those I know who say “Yeah, it’s a bad spill. But these other spills are orders of magnitude larger.” ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/2 "2010-06-08T17:55:53Z")
I too think it’s a big deal. But I remember seeing a story recently about an oil spill off the coast of Mexico in the '70s that dumped something like 150 million gallons into the ocean. Where did all of that oil go and what sort of impact did it have? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/3 "2010-06-08T18:01:45Z")
Its bad. Its getting worse. The only hope we have for a solution is months away, and may very well not even work. Worse case: it doesn’t stop until all the oil in the pocket is drained away. And you can bet BP sank its suck straw into that part which they expected to find the largest amount of oil. So, a big, big problem. Getting bigger. Fuck. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/4 "2010-06-08T18:08:53Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Its bad. Its getting worse. The only hope we have for a solution is months away, and may very well not even work. Worse case: it doesn’t stop until all the oil in the pocket is drained away. And you can bet BP sank its suck straw into that part which they expected to find the largest amount of oil. > > So, a big, big problem. Getting bigger. Fuck. Yes, this is the thing I think a lot of people are overlooking. First of all, we really don’t know how much oil is leaking now, and every estimate seems to be wrong, on the low side. One “expert” (I know…) was quoted in the paper today as saying that the latest solution is actually causing more oil to leak. One of the biggest problems is that we don’t know. We keep hearing about these relief wells being drilled. I hope they work, but I still don’t understand how. And given how much of a failure this whole thing has been so far, I’m doubtful. There is still about 15% of the oil from the Valdez in various forms in Alaska. We can be certain this leak is much worse than that spill was. Much worse. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/5 "2010-06-08T18:27:23Z")
Not more of an expert than anyone, but my understanding is that the relief well, if successfully accomplished, would be an actual solution. The biggest single problem is the pressure from the oil and gas under the surface, its spurts up with enormous energy. You can put the cap back on a bottle of Coke, but not if you dropped an Alka-Seltzer in it. I heard it said in passing, and haven’t verified, but the effect was that Canada (and Norway?) would not permit deep sea drilling unless a relief well was drilled in tandem with the original drilling, so that "Plan B’ is right at hand. Wimpy Canadians! Don’t have that risk-taking, entreprenuerial spirit like us Americans! ---
**Author:** ![blondebear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blondebear/32/1022_2.png) [@blondebear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blondebear)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/6 "2010-06-08T18:43:23Z")
As bad as this incident is, it’s the cumulative effect of all of these things that depresses me. Over time the oceans are being degraded; spill by spill, toxic dump by toxic dump…how long before ecosystem just can’t recover? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/7 "2010-06-08T18:47:05Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Not more of an expert than anyone, but my understanding is that the relief well, if successfully accomplished, would be an actual solution. The biggest single problem is the pressure from the oil and gas under the surface, its spurts up with enormous energy. You can put the cap back on a bottle of Coke, but not if you dropped an Alka-Seltzer in it. Yes, I understand that a relief well will relieve the pressure, but I don’t see how it can eliminate all the pressure. Not trying to start a debate here, and maybe it’s just my own ignorance of the subject. I might start a GQ thread to find out. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/8 "2010-06-08T18:55:24Z")
The pressure is the main problem, were it not for the intense pressure, the cap might have worked, the dome might have worked, and the drilling mud plug might have worked. And don’t you dare not start a debate with me, or I’ll not debate right back! You have been warned, sir! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/9 "2010-06-08T19:06:08Z")
I posted the question in GQ. ---
**Author:** ![statsman1982](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@statsman1982](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/statsman1982)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/10 "2010-06-08T19:16:38Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Its bad. Its getting worse. The only hope we have for a solution is months away, and may very well not even work. Worse case: it doesn’t stop until all the oil in the pocket is drained away. And you can bet BP sank its suck straw into that part which they expected to find the largest amount of oil. > > So, a big, big problem. Getting bigger. Fuck. Yes, I understand, but has anyone said that this is anywhere close to the Lakeview Gusher, or even the spill during the first Gulf War? Even though the spill isn’t over yet, it’s still far less than both Lakeview and the Gulf oil spill, even by the worst-case estimates, isn’t it? What are the current estimates? 20,000 barrels/day? Lakeview was gushing 5 times that amount, possibly for over a year. Is it really true that no one on the planet except for BP can provide an estimate? So far, what I’m gathering is that the precise reason why this spill is worse than the others in the list is that 1). it’s going on now and 2). it’s impossible to measure with any accuracy by anyone on the planet except for maybe BP. ---
**Author:** ![Baracus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/2bfe46/32.png) [@Baracus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baracus)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/11 "2010-06-08T19:38:00Z")
> [@statsman1982](#): > > So far, what I’m gathering is that the precise reason why this spill is worse than the others in the list is that 1). it’s going on now and 2). it’s impossible to measure with any accuracy by anyone on the planet except for maybe BP. 1. It is happening directly off the coast of the U.S. ---
**Author:** ![outlierrn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/outlierrn/32/3005_2.png) [@outlierrn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/outlierrn)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/12 "2010-06-08T19:46:48Z")
> [@statsman1982](#): > > In other words, is Deepwater Horizon any worse in some way than all of those other spills that countries seem to have gotten over? Is it only a big deal because it’s happening now? How can I respond to those I know who say “Yeah, it’s a bad spill. But these other spills are orders of magnitude larger.” Well, according to the list you linked to, worst case scenario puts it as the 3rd worst spill ever, and middle case as the 4th, with no end in sight. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/13 "2010-06-08T20:37:11Z")
There is an unfortunate psychology behind all of this. When the spill slips away from the media, and falls to page three, people collectively will begin to forget about this…but the families and businesses affected in the gulf will be feeling it for a long time. Valdez was in the middle of no where compared to the gulf spill. It doesn’t help that the Rush Limbaughs of the world are saying “it’s natural, it will take care of itself…” and large groups of the populace in the US believe that. To the OP, is this a big deal - you betcha, a really big deal. But you need to keep in in context of what it means for all those affected who are not simply watching it on the TV or listening on the radio or reading about online. ---
**Author:** ![justrob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a9adbd/32.png) [@justrob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/justrob)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/14 "2010-06-08T20:57:11Z")
Well one of the big differences between the Deepwater Horizon spill and the Lakeview Gusher is this one is on the water, spreading the spill over thousands of miles. How far did the Lakeview Gusher go? In the video he said on a still day it went a half a mile up. How far did that carry laterally? He also said that land wasn’t good for anything anymore. I don’t think it would be nothing if thousands of miles of coastline became not good for anything. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/15 "2010-06-08T21:09:52Z")
> [@Phlosphr](#): > > To the OP, is this a big deal - you betcha, a really big deal. But you need to keep in in context of what it means for all those affected who are not simply watching it on the TV or listening on the radio or reading about online. As a minor anecdotal piece of “evidence” I was talking to somebody who sells advertising for some telephone books in LA and they say they are being inundated with calls from two types of advertisers: 1. “Touristy” places (restaurants, hotels, etc) who are looking to cancel or shrink their ads. 2. Lawyers who are looking to buy into the book or increase their ad size. The revenue growth from the lawyers will not make up for the revenue losses from the rest. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/16 "2010-06-08T21:34:21Z")
Guys… it’s not a “spill”. Tankers spill. This is at best a leak, at worse a gusher. I’m going with gusher. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/17 "2010-06-08T22:19:37Z")
> [@blondebear](#): > > As bad as this incident is, it’s the cumulative effect of all of these things that depresses me. Over time the oceans are being degraded; spill by spill, toxic dump by toxic dump…how long before ecosystem just can’t recover? As George Carlin said, humanity is the Earth’s way of making plastic. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/18 "2010-06-08T22:34:33Z")
> [@statsman1982](#): > > In the video, a guy whose family has been in the oil business seems to imply that people who are getting worked up about Deepwater Horizon aren’t aware of how much worse it could be. The fact that it could conceivably be worse does not negate how bad it actually is. > [@](#): > > Is it just that the U.S. isn’t used to seeing this kind of disaster, so we get all up in arms about it (Exxon Valdez isn’t even on the list, yet it was and is a “big deal”). If the only U.S. comparison to the Deepwater Horizon disaster is an event that happened 100 years ago, then yes, clearly people here are not used to seeing this kind of disaster and that is an issue that influences their reactions. Why shouldn’t it be? Other than the Lakeview Gusher and the ongoing Gulf gusher, all of these other spills and leaks happened between 1967 and 1992. So none of them really fall into the 24 hour news age except the Iraq oil spill, which was part of a war and not an accident. Many of these happened in third world countries or countries that don’t get a lot of attention here. It’s not like U.S. audiences get regular updates on the environmental progress of Uzbekistan or Angola, so I don’t think the public is in a good position to know how well those areas recovered from similar disasters. So if the only comparison to the Deepwater disaster is something that happened 100 years ago… that’s very bad. ---
**Author:** ![Nametag](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nametag/32/406_2.png) [@Nametag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nametag)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2010, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-that-big-of-a-problem/542452/19 "2010-06-09T00:43:56Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes, I understand that a relief well will relieve the pressure, but I don’t see how it can eliminate all the pressure. Not trying to start a debate here, and maybe it’s just my own ignorance of the subject. I might start a GQ thread to find out. The relief well will be used to pump mud and concrete into the shaft, in a procedure called “bottom kill” – as opposed to the top kill procedure that failed earlier. Relieving pressure isn’t the point, here. The Lakeview gusher was on dry land in Kern county, an 8100 square mile area with fewer people than Jacksonville, Florida – today. The population of southwestern Kern in 1909 was less than 10,000 people; its economic importance was almost entirely due to the oil and other minerals, exploitation of which the gusher did not diminish, and local ecology had already been permanently altered by the draining of Buena Vista Lake. Given all that, the containment of much of the spill using sandbags and berms, and the attitude toward the environment in those days, it’s no surprise that the gusher’s ecological impact has not been a touchstone for the current situation. The Gulf War spill was far worse than that, as it affects the vigorous ecology and economy of the Persian Gulf. Reports I’ve indicate that the area will be recovering for decades. It doesn’t make much news in the United States because, well, very little outside the U.S. does. Nonetheless, there’s severe damage there. The Deepwater Horizon spill, contrary to the figures in Wikipedia, may yet exceed both spills by the time it’s over – at least that’s what my reading indicates. Recovery efforts may knock down the effect of the spill, and may even justify reducing the reported total, but the worst case estimates are staggering. Meanwhile, people are mostly comparing it the the Exxon Valdez, just because it’s in the U.S., even though it’s small compared to the three above. Note: I am not an expert in oil or oceans.