# Is the Fermi Paradox becoming more acute?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [July 10, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574 "2016-07-10T16:35:09Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 6
### Author:  [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)
#### Post date: [July 18, 2016, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/101 "2016-07-18T01:01:10Z")
Life on earth appeared more or less as soon as conditions were suitable. But it percolated along as prokaryotic cells for 2 billion years. Then somehow one cell swallowed another and instead of digesting it, allowed to take up residence and become, say, a mitochondrian and evolution turned the mitochondria into energy generating machines. Another such became a chloroplast and started generating oxygen in the atmosphere (which was poisonous to most life at the time). Eventually, after another billion and a half years, multi-cellular life evolved. And then dinosaurs who lived for something like 165 million years without developing intelligence (or at least technology). Then a large meteor struck the earth and led to the demise of the dinos and the radiation of the heretofore minor group of mammals. One primitive class of these mammals didn’t develop any particular specialization (unless you count tree-living as a specialization). One genus of these primates developed the ability to raise its forelimbs about its head and swing from trees. A few species of this genus came down out of the trees. Its hands and arms allowed to start developing stone tools. And, for some mysterious reason, develop language and so on.
Everyone of these steps was crucial to lead to us. I don’t deny that there are probably many paths, but this was ours. And we have no idea how difficult any of them were. Perhaps, on average it takes longer than the life of a star to produce eukaryotic cells. We don’t know and have no way of estimating.
One thing I recently read pointed out that even though stars smaller and cooler than our sun might have an estimated life of, say, 100 billion years before they turn into red giants, the lower redder radiation will give less free energy making the development of life harder.
Even if whales and dolphins are as intelligent as humans and even if they have language, they have no physical capacity for technology. It is entirely possible that life is common but technology exceedingly rare.
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### Author:  [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)
#### Post date: [July 25, 2016, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/102 "2016-07-25T22:33:50Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#):
>
> Life on earth appeared more or less as soon as conditions were suitable. But it percolated along as prokaryotic cells for 2 billion years. Then somehow one cell swallowed another and instead of digesting it, allowed to take up residence and become, say, a mitochondrian and evolution turned the mitochondria into energy generating machines. Another such became a chloroplast and started generating oxygen in the atmosphere (which was poisonous to most life at the time). Eventually, after another billion and a half years, multi-cellular life evolved. And then dinosaurs who lived for something like 165 million years without developing intelligence (or at least technology). Then a large meteor struck the earth and led to the demise of the dinos and the radiation of the heretofore minor group of mammals. One primitive class of these mammals didn’t develop any particular specialization (unless you count tree-living as a specialization). One genus of these primates developed the ability to raise its forelimbs about its head and swing from trees. A few species of this genus came down out of the trees. Its hands and arms allowed to start developing stone tools. And, for some mysterious reason, develop language and so on.
>
> Everyone of these steps was crucial to lead to us. I don’t deny that there are probably many paths, but this was ours. And we have no idea how difficult any of them were. Perhaps, on average it takes longer than the life of a star to produce eukaryotic cells. We don’t know and have no way of estimating.
>
> One thing I recently read pointed out that even though stars smaller and cooler than our sun might have an estimated life of, say, 100 billion years before they turn into red giants, the lower redder radiation will give less free energy making the development of life harder.
>
> Even if whales and dolphins are as intelligent as humans and even if they have language, they have no physical capacity for technology. It is entirely possible that life is common but technology exceedingly rare.
So what made that one cell swallow another without digesting it?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
---
### Author:  [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)
#### Post date: [July 25, 2016, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/103 "2016-07-25T23:11:30Z")
> [@Tibby or Not Tibby](#):
>
> Why? (snip)
What you keep describing as static environments are incredibly unstable arrangements. Let’s say we’re all happily homeostasising, but I have 2.1 children per generation and you only have 2.0 children. It won’t take all that long (on geologic timescales) before the entire population carries my genes. And if there is a third guy who is having 2.2 children, he’ll out-breed all of us.
As you say, even plants compete for light. There is no limiting resource, not even an inorganic resource like sunlight, that life isn’t in competition for. The plant that grows tallest, fastest, adapts to lower light, climbs on other plants… these will be selected for. The plant that says “Why can’t we all just get along?” is dead.
The same is true at an interstellar scale.
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### Author:  [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)
#### Post date: [July 25, 2016, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/104 "2016-07-25T23:56:30Z")
> [@Biffster](#):
>
> So what made that one cell swallow another without digesting it?
Indigestion. Duh. 😉
I’m still unclear why a pronouncement by a physicist, who should have everything about the speed of light, the mechanics of space travel, the passage of time, and the bleeping Inverse Square Law as part of his second nature, would say anything that stupid. First, he didn’t ignite the Earth’s atmosphere, as promised. And then this?
What a maroon.
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### Author:  [@Nelson\_Pike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nelson_Pike)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/105 "2016-07-26T00:46:32Z")
> [@dropzone](#):
>
> Yes, and I agree with the idea, but for all the talk about aliens watching I Love Lucy we have only been broadcasting on the FM band (AM bounces off the ionosphere) since 1933 and, thanks to the inverse-square law, it’s unlikely anyone has noticed us. Give it time.
I don’t think Fermi is the kind of person who would have just forgotten about the inverse square law, if it was relevant.
And consider that humans have discovered exoplanets up to 13,000 light-years distant without benefit of FM broadcasts.
And consider that the era of human human science is only 500 years old; The ETIs Fermi was thinking of would have passed our present state of development millions of years ago.
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### Author:  [@Nelson\_Pike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nelson_Pike)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/106 "2016-07-26T01:05:30Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#):
>
> Life on earth appeared more or less as soon as conditions were suitable…
Doesn’t this imply that differing forms of life, genetically unrelated to all others, should have appeared in abundance?
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#):
>
> One thing I recently read pointed out that even though stars smaller and cooler than our sun might have an estimated life of, say, 100 billion years before they turn into red giants, the lower redder radiation will give less free energy making the development of life harder.
Double check that source- the universe is now only 13.8 billion years old, and I doubt any star has a life expectancy anywhere near 100 billion years.
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### Author:  [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/107 "2016-07-26T01:21:52Z")
> [@Nelson\_Pike](#):
>
> The human Y-chromosone is not any _300 million years old_, (the human species in less than 300 _thousand_ years old, isn’t it?) and when one’s introduction is that badly falsified then everything that follows should be rewritten, preferably by different author.
The [XY system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XY_sex-determination_system) well predates humans. It’s present in most mammals and even some insects.
The only other ones I’m even familiar with is the [ZW system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZW_sex-determination_system) used in birds and the [X0 system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X0_sex-determination_system) used in some insects.
Heck, part of the reason for doubting the shrinking of the human Y chromosome is that it seems to be the same as the ones in chimpanzees.
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### Author:  [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/108 "2016-07-26T01:46:54Z")
> [@Nelson\_Pike](#):
>
> I don’t think Fermi is the kind of person who would have just forgotten about the inverse square law, if it was relevant.
It is tatally relevant. There is no point in sending a shoutout if no one will hear it. The inverse square law is immutable as our technology stands. We are not broadcasting at extra-light frequencies, so unless you have equipment capable of discerning unimaginably small differences it makes no sense to listen for them. If you find one, you island hop to real prospects, settle/incorporate them, and listen for who is less dim. That takes a long time.
I was not hired at Fermilab, so I’m comfortable calling him an idiot. 😉
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### Author:  [@Nelson\_Pike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nelson_Pike)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/109 "2016-07-26T02:06:08Z")
> [@BigT](#):
>
> The [XY system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XY_sex-determination_system) well predates humans. It’s present in most mammals and even some insects.
>
> The only other ones I’m even familiar with is the [ZW system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZW_sex-determination_system) used in birds and the [X0 system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X0_sex-determination_system) used in some insects.
>
> Heck, part of the reason for doubting the shrinking of the human Y chromosome is that it seems to be the same as the ones in chimpanzees.
I was commenting only on the human Y chromosone.
I have not yet taken another look at Bryan Sykes’ discussion of what he considers to be human Y chromosone instability.
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### Author:  [@Nelson\_Pike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nelson_Pike)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/110 "2016-07-26T02:25:02Z")
> [@dropzone](#):
>
> It is tatally relevant. There is no point in sending a shoutout if no one will hear it. The inverse square law is immutable as our technology stands. We are not broadcasting at extra-light frequencies, so unless you have equipment capable of discerning unimaginably small differences it makes no sense to listen for them. If you find one, you island hop to real prospects, settle/incorporate them, and listen for who is less dim. That takes a long time.
>
> I was not hired at Fermilab, so I’m comfortable calling him an idiot. 😉
Do you even know who Fermi _was_?
He would have been as well aware as anyone, including you, of the limitations imposed by either the inverse square law
or the speed of light.
Now, our dialogue does not strike me as an interesting or fruitful diversion, and I do not promise to continue with it.
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### Author:  [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/111 "2016-07-26T04:42:32Z")
> [@Nelson\_Pike](#):
>
> Do you even know who Fermi _was_?
Fully aware and fully knowledgeable to know he was talking out of his ass. It was an off-the-cuff answer he put no effort into.
> [@](#):
>
> Now, our dialogue does not strike me as an interesting or fruitful diversion, and I do not promise to continue with it.
Which I assume you have devoted no actual thought to at all. I’m not the moron I play online.
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### Author:  [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/112 "2016-07-26T05:37:32Z")
> [@dropzone](#):
>
> Fully aware and fully knowledgeable to know he was talking out of his ass. It was an off-the-cuff answer he put no effort into. . . .
No. Just no. You need to study more about the life and writings of this fascinating chap.
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### Author:  [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/113 "2016-07-26T06:21:52Z")
> [@dracoi](#):
>
> As you say, even plants compete for light. There is no limiting resource, not even an inorganic resource like sunlight, that life isn’t in competition for. The plant that grows tallest, fastest, adapts to lower light, climbs on other plants… these will be selected for. The plant that says “Why can’t we all just get along?” is dead.
>
> The same is true at an interstellar scale.
Well I guess the same is technically true at an interstellar scale, but I think the following caveats make it moot:
1. There is no plausible scenario at this time for a species to _evolve_ to travel interstellar distances; we’re assuming interstellar species will travel such distances with (hyper-advanced) technology.
The fact that they have achieved this level of technology already implies a lot about such species.
2. Space is mostly (unimaginably vast) empty space. Species would not be tripping over each other the way that plants on a landmass (figuratively) are.
Or, if we’re imagining a race to particular resources, and we’re speculating that species may compete to make dyson spheres…we’d see evidence of that. And last year when the 100,000 closest galaxies were surveyed for such features, we found nothing.
If Dyson spheres exist, there are no galaxies saturated with them. This kind of competition is objectively not happening over the vast range we’ve looked so far.
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### Author:  [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/114 "2016-07-26T13:39:54Z")
> [@BigT](#):
>
> The only other ones I’m even familiar with is the [ZW system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZW_sex-determination_system) used in birds and the [X0 system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X0_sex-determination_system) used in some insects.
Interesting. I clicked the links, clicked again to Dosage\_compensation, and now have a question.
If female humans “silence the transcription of one X chromosome of each pair” then why don’t carriers of hemophilia have a 50% of having the disease? (Or is the silencing done cell-by-cell, and 50% “good” cells is enough not to suffer symptoms?)
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### Author:  [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/115 "2016-07-26T14:08:54Z")
> [@Nelson\_Pike](#):
>
> I doubt any star has a life expectancy anywhere near 100 billion years.
[Red dwarf stars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_dwarf) (which are the most common type) go much longer than that:
> [@](#):
>
> The less massive the star, the longer this evolutionary process takes. It has been calculated that a 0.16 [solar mass] red dwarf (approximately the mass of the nearby Barnard’s Star) would stay on the main sequence for 2.5 trillion years
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### Author:  [@AndrewL](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AndrewL)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/116 "2016-07-26T14:22:04Z")
> [@septimus](#):
>
> Interesting. I clicked the links, clicked again to Dosage\_compensation, and now have a question.
>
> If female humans “silence the transcription of one X chromosome of each pair” then why don’t carriers of hemophilia have a 50% of having the disease? (Or is the silencing done cell-by-cell, and 50% “good” cells is enough not to suffer symptoms?)
X-inactivation happens on a cell-by-cell basis when the developing embryo is at the stage of still being made up of a few hundred or so cells, so the adult woman will end up as a mosaic of cells with one or the other X chromosome deactivated. For hemophilia, having some cells without the defective gene is enough, they don’t all have to be good.
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### Author:  [@Nelson\_Pike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nelson_Pike)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/117 "2016-07-26T15:21:53Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#):
>
> [Red dwarf stars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_dwarf) (which are the most common type) go much longer than that:
Well son of a gun you are right. The Wiki link is corroborated by Cambridge University, among others:
[Cambridge University Institute of Astronomy: Lifetime of red dwarfs](http://www.ast.cam.ac.uk/public/ask/2451)
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### Author:  [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/118 "2016-07-26T15:31:56Z")
> [@Mijin](#):
>
> 1. Space is mostly (unimaginably vast) empty space. Species would not be tripping over each other the way that plants on a landmass (figuratively) are.
> Or, if we’re imagining a race to particular resources, and we’re speculating that species may compete to make dyson spheres…we’d see evidence of that. And last year when the 100,000 closest galaxies were surveyed for such features, we found nothing.
> If Dyson spheres exist, there are no galaxies saturated with them. This kind of competition is objectively not happening over the vast range we’ve looked so far.
I think Dyson spheres are silly. Hey, we can build solar panels, someday we’ll put solar panels around the whole sun! That’s like ancient Egyptians saying, hey, we can build pyramids, someday we’ll build pyramids that reach to the stars!
Um, no. What we eventually build probably won’t be anything we’re imagining now.
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### Author:  [@Tibby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tibby)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/119 "2016-07-26T19:17:39Z")
I don’t care about Dyson spheres, but I’d like to see Dyson _[Balls](http://www.dyson.com/vacuum-cleaners/upright/dyson-ball/dyson-ball-multi-floor/reviews.aspx)_ placed around the globe to suck up the mess we’ve made.
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### Author:  [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)
#### Post date: [July 26, 2016, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-fermi-paradox-becoming-more-acute/759574/120 "2016-07-26T20:49:19Z")
> [@Mijin](#):
>
> . . . There is no plausible scenario at this time for a species to _evolve_ to travel interstellar distances; we’re assuming interstellar species will travel such distances with (hyper-advanced) technology.
> The fact that they have achieved this level of technology already implies a lot about such species. . . .
Agreed. For one thing, species with hyper-technology can choose their future bodily modifications by gene-scripting. They would have left behind the ordinary non-volitional path of evolution. (Humanity is coming VERY close to this point, if it has not already.)
Also, technology proceeds vastly faster than biological evolution. It takes species millions of years to evolve wings…but we went from the Wright Brothers to the Moon in under 100 years. So if Interstellar travel is possible at all, it would take place in a cosmic eye-blink.
(And that leads to the scary question: how long do hyper-technological civilizations last?)
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