Mangetout wrote:
Don’t forget that ultrafilter was talking about the theoretical “Ultimate Chess Strategy” (UCS), in which case you could throw out a lot of board positions as “silly.”
For example, let’s say the UCS begins with the same move that Fool’s Mate does. In which case, the UCS Guide could say “if your opponent makes a move which leaves them open to Fool’s Mate and does nothing to prevent Fool’s Mate later on, you can ignore that move.” In other words, you don’t have to write down all 10[sup]10[sup]50[/sup][/sup] board positions in the UCS (especially since the UCS won’t allow many of them), but only a subset of them.
Theoretically, there will be only one first move for the person following the UCS, so that cuts out nearly 1/20th of the possibilities right at the start. And a lot of later moves would be ridiculous, anyway.
If we put a further constraint on the UCS, that it only be used against reasonably competent chess players (master and above?), that would further limit the possibilities. After all, using the UCS against a novice or even a computer which moved randomly would be overkill. If the UCS author can say, for example, “well, only an idiot would make that move,” then the UCS author can avoid having to consider those possibilities. (And perhaps the UCS starts with a “general rule” for picking the closest board position after a non-anticipated move by an opponent.)
So, if a decent opponent would narrow down those 30 or 40 possible moves to, say, 5 rational ones, on average, for each move of the game, then the UCS player needs no more than an equal number of responses. In other words, the UCS player makes fixed moves in response to the opponent, and doesn’t increase the number of possible board positions at all - every position the UCS player creates is determined by the previous move of the opponent. Instead of 30 or 40 squared possibilities for each set of moves, we’re down to 5 (and not 5[sup]2[/sup], just five).
If the UCS player starts as white, he’s got one move, period. His opponent counters with one of 5 (or so). For each one of those, he responds with a single move (each). His opponent will probably do one of 5 (or so) in response to each of those five. So at the end of two moves, the UCS only has 30 board positions written down (5 for after the opponent’s first move, and 25 for after all probable second moves by the opponent).
If we run with these assumptions, then after 40 moves (if a UCS game takes that long), the UCS big book will need to have just over 1.1 x 10[sup]28[/sup] board positions listed. Even if you wanted to keep track of 30 possible opponent choices each move, that’d only be about 1.4 x 10[sup]56[/sup] positions.
I still wouldn’t want to even try to write it, but at least it’s down to fewer moves than there are atoms in the Universe.