# Is the NBA Draft Lottery unfair?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308
**Category:** The Game Room
**Created:** [May 18, 2011, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308 "2011-05-18T12:54:30Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 3
### Author:  [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/41 "2011-05-19T17:31:13Z")
If the NBA wanted to fix the draft, the first pick would have gone to Washington or Sacramento.
Besides, it’s not like this draft has a can’t-miss player in it anyway.
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### Author:  [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/42 "2011-05-19T17:31:16Z")
> [@gonzomax](#):
>
> It smells of fixed to me. The NBA has no problem picking winners . They find ways to help the teams they want to win,.
> Back when Ewing was picked against odds and many times since, it has looked like the picks can be directed to where the league wants. Cleveland feels all screwed over because they lost their superstar. Now they get the first pick?
> The reffing has been fixed before. The NBA reeks.
If this were really true then wouldn’t the NBA have rigged something for the Knicks again (one of its biggest markets) by now? Ewing was a long time ago.
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### Author:  [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/43 "2011-05-19T17:41:41Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#):
>
> If this were really true then wouldn’t the NBA have rigged something for the Knicks again (one of its biggest markets) by now? Ewing was a long time ago.
IME, People who see conspiracies tend to ignore things that don’t fit the pattern.
(or they explain them by saying that was part of the conspiracy so it doesn’t look too obvious)
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### Author:  [@Duke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/44 "2011-05-19T17:44:25Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#):
>
> If this were really true then wouldn’t the NBA have rigged something for the Knicks again (one of its biggest markets) by now? Ewing was a long time ago.
Maybe Stern just figured that the Isaiah Thomas-era Knicks were so badly mismanaged they could have had ALL the picks in the first round and still not succeed in playing winning basketball.
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### Author:  [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/45 "2011-05-19T18:09:35Z")
What I don’t understand is why the NBA has the actual lottery an hour before the televised version.
[Link](http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2011/05/insider_the_nba_draft_lottery.html#cmpid=v2mode_be_smoref_face)
What the hell is the point of that? Why not just do the whole thing live?
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### Author:  [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/46 "2011-05-19T18:10:08Z")
> [@jacobsta811](#):
>
> Regarding the NFL, under the just voided CBA I don’t think all the GMs even would _want_ the number one pick - I bet a lot of them would want to pick something more like 5-10 because the top picks get so much money and are far more likely to completely bust than a top NBA pick.
Just out of curiosity, I checked this one (using wikipedia’s list of overall #1s) and it is borne out - 8 NFL overall #1s from 1990 - 2005 did not make a single all-star game, versus 4 NBA #1s in that period. Even baseball had a better track record, with 7 non-all-stars over that period.
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### Author:  [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/47 "2011-05-19T18:17:59Z")
The thought of a 5’ Asian guy riding the pine during the last game of the season with a ping-pong paddle sticking out of his back pocket is just cracking me up.
Thanks a lot, **DCnDC**!
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### Author:  [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/48 "2011-05-19T18:34:17Z")
> [@jacobsta811](#):
>
> Regarding the NFL, under the just voided CBA I don’t think all the GMs even would _want_ the number one pick - I bet a lot of them would want to pick something more like 5-10 because the top picks get so much money and are far more likely to completely bust than a top NBA pick.
QFT, the first pick in the NFL is practically a curse. You need help NOW, and your pick is most likely going to miss half of training camp, suck up 10% of your total team (53 players) salary and will probably need multiple years to reach his (presumed) potential.
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### Author:  [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/49 "2011-05-19T19:06:38Z")
Cleveland got Lebron. Chicago got Rose. Ewing went to NY. Local heroes come to team at the right time.
David Kahn ,Timberwolves GM ,suggested the lottery looked fishy.
You can not prove a conspiracy without insiders coming clean, so the case will wither.
I am not saying the lottery is fixed. But it has reeked a few times.
When the NBA ref was nailed with game fixing, he said many other refs were involved. He wound up being the only one get nailed.
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### Author:  [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/50 "2011-05-19T19:10:19Z")
Don’t forget Detroit getting the #2 - clearly Stern was conspiring to bring in the Darko Milicic Era in Detroit.
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### Author:  [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/51 "2011-05-19T19:46:36Z")
> [@gonzomax](#):
>
> Cleveland got Lebron. Chicago got Rose. Ewing went to NY. Local heroes come to team at the right time.
Except when they don’t, right? Orlando got Dwight Howard (from Georgia). Portland got Greg Oden (from Buffalo by way of Ohio).
You know, I don’t begrudge anyone a good sports-related conspiracy. Really, I don’t. But this one, in particular, drives me nuts because all the evidence I can see suggests that the fix, as regards the NBA draft lottery, is _not_ in. For example:
> [@](#):
>
> Have a struggling NYC franchise that needs a big man? Patrick Ewing’s available. Want to reward the ex-player, now-owner ranked by many as the best ever? Let’s give the #1 to MJ and see what he does with it. Shaq needs help to make a playoff run? Let’s give Orlando their 2nd #1 in a row so that the leagues latest superstar can get some serious TV time in May and June. Need Lebron to go to his “hometown” of Cleveland to help combat image problems resulting from overpaid players who merely rotate between jobs? The NBA can arrange that.
So there are two problems here. The first is that the evidence that is presented here all relies on this _post facto_ determination of “what the NBA needs” that ranges from silly to super-silly. For most years, you could invent a storyline “showing” how the NBA wants the first pick to go to any team in the lottery. Why would LeBron going to Cleveland help combat the image problems you suggest - it was always likely that he would _leave_ Cleveland. The Knicks were in the lottery that year - had they won it it would have been easy to call that a conspiracy.
But OK. Let’s take those four - Ewing to the Knicks, LeBron to the Cavs, Kwame Brown to the Wizards, and Chris Webber to the Magic - as instances where the outcome of the lottery represented “what the NBA wants.” What do we say about the other _23_ lotteries? Why did Commissar Stern intervene in this cases, but not in other, similar cases?
Supposedly Stern sends Ewing to the Knicks to resurrect one of his highest profile franchises, right? So it’s 1997. The highest-profile franchise of all, the Boston Celtics, has endured a complete crash over the course of 11 years, helped along by losing not one but _two_ prospective franchise players to _death_. They’ve just finished two seasons below .500 (including a franchise-record 67 losses). The team is desperately in need of a break to ease the pain of the Bias and (especially) Lewis deaths, and the league would unquestionably benefit from a strong Celtic franchise. And the Celtics have two shots in the lottery! Tim Duncan, welcome to Boston, right, ushering in a new era of Celtic pride?
Well, no. The Machiavellian NBA Cabal sent Duncan to… San Antonio?
Or, OK, we’re theorizing that Stern decided to help out Michael Jordan by giving his Wizards the #1 pick in the Kwame Brown draft, yes? So what about those other popular 80’s stars? Isaiah Thomas came to the Knicks in 2003. Knicks had a lottery pick in 2005: think old Isaiah could have had a bit more success with Chris Paul, Deron Williams, or even Andrew Bogut instead of Channing Frye? Or, hell, with LeBron, who as a Knick would have transformed that franchise, probably stayed with the team for life and turned into even more of a global megastar than he actually did (and probably would have been beloved in a way he will never be now).
Or, OK, the league sent Webber to help out Shaq. Why did they not then arrange it so that Chris Paul, who joined a franchise that was crushed by a freaking hurricane, got some help? You could have given them Andrea Bargnani or Lamarcus Aldridge in 2006 or dropped them into the #2 spot in 2007. If Chris Paul were playing with Kevin Durant right now, do you think the NBA would have had to bail out the Hornets? I guess David Stern likes Shaq, but not Chris Paul.
It just doesn’t make sense.
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### Author:  [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/52 "2011-05-19T20:37:31Z")
Marley23:
> [@](#):
>
> but after Orlando won twice and drafted Shaq (they had the second worst record in the league after Minnesota that year) and Chris Webber
Nitpick: It’s Penny Hardaway they took with that second # 1 pick. Chris Webber was drafted by the Warriors.
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### Author:  [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/53 "2011-05-19T20:42:52Z")
> [@cmkeller](#):
>
> Nitpick: It’s Penny Hardaway they took with that second # 1 pick. Chris Webber was drafted by the Warriors.
Double nitpick: They traded Webber for Hardaway (who was the third pick that year) and 3 #1s.
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### Author:  [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/54 "2011-05-19T20:49:28Z")
> [@cmkeller](#):
>
> Nitpick: It’s Penny Hardaway they took with that second # 1 pick. Chris Webber was drafted by the Warriors.
> [@Tom\_Scud](#):
>
> Double nitpick: They traded Webber for Hardaway (who was the third pick that year) and 3 #1s.
For clarification’s sake for anyone following, the Magic drafted Webber with the #1 pick and then traded him to the Warriors for their #3 overall pick Penny Hardaway plus 3 future 1st round picks.
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### Author:  [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/55 "2011-05-19T20:50:01Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#):
>
> Double nitpick: They traded Webber for Hardaway (who was the third pick that year) and 3 #1s.
And because I was curious, the 3 picks were the 1996 first round pick (#11-Todd Fuller), the 1998 first round pick (#13-Keon Clark), and the 2000 first round pick (#5-Mike Miller).
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### Author:  [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2011, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/56 "2011-05-19T20:57:18Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#):
>
> the 1996 first round pick (#11-Todd Fuller)
Continuing my excursion into the land of pointless transactions that seemed like a big deal at the time, this pick ended up being taken by the Golden State Warriors, as the Magic traded it to the Bullets for Scott Skiles, who in turned packaged the pick with two other #1s and Tom Gugliotta for none other than Chris Webber. So Todd Fuller, in a sense, may be the only player to have been traded for Chris Webber twice.
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### Author:  [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2011, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/57 "2011-05-20T00:08:26Z")
It seems like it would be essentially impossible for the NBA to rig the current lottery. Provided that:
-Each team has a conscious representative at the drawing
-All representatives examine the balls to ensure the correct number are in the hopper
-There are the correct number of combinations of numbers
-The balls are drawn completely randomly,
How the hell could you rig the drawing?
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### Author:  [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2011, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/58 "2011-05-20T02:16:04Z")
> [@markdash](#):
>
> It seems like it would be essentially impossible for the NBA to rig the current lottery. Provided that:
>
> -Each team has a conscious representative at the drawing
> -All representatives examine the balls to ensure the correct number are in the hopper
> -There are the correct number of combinations of numbers
> -The balls are drawn completely randomly,
>
> How the hell could you rig the drawing?
For the conspiracy-minded people out there, nothing is impossible, [especially when fixing lottery ping-pong balls has already happened](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Pennsylvania_Lottery_scandal). That it would be all but impossible now given the implemented safeguards mentioned above doesn’t change the surreal belief that the NBA lottery is fixed. People believe what they want to believe and that’s that.
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### Author:  [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2011, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/59 "2011-05-20T03:21:50Z")
I have not felt comfortable with the NBA for years. It didn’t feel quite right. Games have the problem of refs being far too big a factor. When the reffing fix came out, I was not slightly surprised. I expected them to keep it down to one renegade official. That had to. If a bunch were implicated the game would have taken a huge hit.
If a sport was going to fix its draft, it would be the NBA.
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### Author:  [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2011, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-unfair/582308/60 "2011-05-20T15:53:59Z")
> [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](#):
>
> For the conspiracy-minded people out there, nothing is impossible, [especially when fixing lottery ping-pong balls has already happened](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Pennsylvania_Lottery_scandal). That it would be all but impossible now given the implemented safeguards mentioned above doesn’t change the surreal belief that the NBA lottery is fixed. People believe what they want to believe and that’s that.
It’s possible to rig the drawing, but it’s not quite as simple as “draw these numbers and team X wins.” How do you rig for combination 1-4-7-5, when combination 5-7-4-1 would give you a totally different result? It just seems impossible without an extraordinary amount of chicanery.
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