# Is the "October Surprise" a myth? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 10, 2026, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804 "2026-06-10T18:32:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804/21 "2026-06-12T02:10:12Z")
Wikipedia says the 2018 October surprise was Trump whipping up fear over a migrant caravan. He sent troops to the border even though the Mexican government was blocking them from getting up near the U.S. I presume DJT will try something this September or October. Whether it will get more publicity than his normal attention-getting is anyone’s guess. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804/22 "2026-06-12T19:17:38Z")
It wasn’t a myth last year in the New Jersey governor’s race. Ok technically it was a last week of September surprise. An ally of the Republican candidate was given an unredacted copy of Mikie Sherrill’s military record in June. The last week of September it was leaked that she was part of the Naval Academy cheating scandal the year she graduated. She was disciplined for not snitching. I think that fits the definition. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804/23 "2026-06-12T21:49:59Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Yeah, I can’t recall a single October surprise actually happening. Bush the Younger vs. Kerry. Osama Bin fucking Laden releases a public broadcast on October 29. > **[The 2004 October Surprise, and What It Means for 2012](https://goodauthority.org/news/the-2004-october-surprise-and-what-it-means-for-2012/)** > > I’m generally not a big believe in “October surprises,” which seem to be more numerous in folklore than fact.  But \[…\] ETA: oh, this has already been cited, sorry ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2026, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804/24 "2026-06-19T01:58:36Z")
That’s OK. It bears repeating. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2026, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804/25 "2026-07-06T02:03:23Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > It hasn’t been proven conclusively, but the hostage release hours after Reagan took office is certainly suspicious. Uh, about that… [Republicans Sabotaged Carter’s Re-election via the Iran Hostage Crisis](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-sabotaged-carters-re-election-via-the-iran-hostage-crisis/981346) ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2026, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804/26 "2026-07-06T13:43:14Z")
Beat me to it, there is more than a little evidence that Reagan conspired to keep the hostages imprisoned until he was elected. When I hear the term October Surprise, this is what I think of. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2026, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804/27 "2026-07-06T19:08:08Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > It hasn’t been proven conclusively, but the hostage release hours after Reagan took office is certainly suspicious. Suspicious? It was an obvious “Fuck you” to Carter. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-october-surprise-a-myth/1030804.md?page=1)