# Is the recent drop in violent crime due to banning lead in gasoline? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 30, 2012, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569 "2012-11-30T14:27:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/21 "2012-11-30T17:44:06Z")
Shouldn’t you be looking at the _overall_ homicide rate? ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/22 "2012-11-30T17:47:35Z")
I say it’s TV. No matter how clever you are, the CSI guys will get you. It’s the likelihood of getting caught having a deterrent effect. ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/23 "2012-11-30T17:49:08Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Shouldn’t you be looking at the _overall_ homicide rate? No. I’m showing a strong correlation between age and violent crime. I’m using homicide as one of the violent crimes, some might say the most violent. I’m showing that homicide is mainly committed by young people. I’m showing that once the majority of young people start to age, the rate of homicide in that age group diminishes, because there’s fewer young people. The full statistics are available in the link. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/24 "2012-11-30T18:18:54Z")
> [@Leaffan](#): > > In the early 1990s the tail end of the baby boomers were turning what, 26, 27, 28? Of course it correlates. It correlates perfectly. > > The second table in this [link](http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/homicide/tables/oagetab.cfm) shows: > > Homicides committed by the 18-24 age group > 1976 - 22.8% > 1993 - 42.8% > 2005 - 26.5% The violent crime peak coincided with the _tail end_ of the baby boomers in their 20s… most of the boomers by that point were close to 40 or older, and there were no baby boomers under 25 (and men under 25 commit a lot more violent crimes per capita then men over 25). So it doesn’t make sense that the crime _peak_ would be around the time or after all the baby boomers were over 25. Intuitively, you would think that the crime peak would be when the middle of the baby boomers were turning 28 or so (perhaps around 1983)- because then you’d have lots of teenage baby boomers just getting into crime, plus some the less repentant older baby boomer criminals, plus the big chunk of boomers in their 20s. But it didn’t- the peak was several years after this. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/25 "2012-11-30T18:26:10Z")
> [@Leaffan](#): > > No. I’m showing a strong correlation between age and violent crime. I’m using homicide as one of the violent crimes, some might say the most violent. > > I’m showing that homicide is mainly committed by young people. > > I’m showing that once the majority of young people start to age, the rate of homicide in that age group diminishes, because there’s fewer young people. > > The full statistics are available in the link. One of us is extremely confused, and I am fairly certain it’s you. The homicide rate drops across \*all \*age groups according to that data. ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/26 "2012-11-30T19:31:49Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > One of us is extremely confused, and I am fairly certain it’s you. The homicide rate drops across \*all \*age groups according to that data. Much greater delta for the younger age groups, but yeah the the rates do drop overall. ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/27 "2012-11-30T19:59:39Z")
Does anyone have a good site for finding out the violent crime rates. [What I have read](http://www.cepr.org/meets/wkcn/9/979/papers/Buonnano_etal.pdf) (pdf) is that violent crime rates have been going up slowly in Europe and property crime rates have been going down slowly. In American both violent crime rates and property crime rates have been falling dramatically. [The abortion/crime relationship has mostly been debunked.](http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/wp/wp2005/wp0515.pdf) (pdf) The lead explanation has some power, but probably only about one third of the total drop in American rates is due to lead gasoline being gone. ---
**Author:** ![Llama\_Llogophile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@Llama\_Llogophile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Llama_Llogophile)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/28 "2012-11-30T20:06:48Z")
I wonder if there is any evidence of violent crime going up or remaining the same among general aviation pilots. Small planes still use leaded fuel, and I’ve sometimes thought about the potential long term harm I may be suffering when I pump gas at the airport. ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/29 "2012-11-30T20:07:41Z")
According to Freakonomics, the reduction in crime rate in the US is highly correlated with the results of Roe v. Wade. RvW made abortion legal in the US, but for legal technical reasons, it took effect at different dates in different states, and the reduction in crime correlates very well with the specific dates in each state. It’s a pretty convincing argument. The reason is a matter of conjecture, but they point out that it makes sense that people who were not wanted as babies in the first place might be more likely to become criminals. ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/30 "2012-11-30T20:10:45Z")
Ah I see the refutation linked above. I’ll have to check that out. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/31 "2012-11-30T20:12:28Z")
> [@Mach Tuck](#): > > I wonder if there is any evidence of violent crime going up or remaining the same among general aviation pilots. Small planes still use leaded fuel, and I’ve sometimes thought about the potential long term harm I may be suffering when I pump gas at the airport. Its childhood exposure that’s the issue. So not really a problem for aviation pilots (though lead exposure might not be great for them either, for other reasons). You might not want to raise your kid in a house next to a small-aircraft airport though. ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/32 "2012-11-30T20:15:34Z")
Donahue & Levitt’s response to Foote, et. al: [http://www.nber.org/papers/w11987.pdf?new\_window=1](http://www.nber.org/papers/w11987.pdf?new_window=1) Haven’t read it. Interested in your opions on it … looks a bit above my pay grade. ---
**Author:** ![Blakeyrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ecd19e/32.png) [@Blakeyrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blakeyrat)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/33 "2012-11-30T20:30:32Z")
I’m reading through this book: [The Better Angels of our Nature](http://www.amazon.com/The-Better-Angels-Nature-ebook/dp/B0052REUW0). If you’re interested in this topic, it’s highly, highly, highly recommended. FWIW, the statistics show that homicides have fallen in every country they’re reliably measured in, it’s not just Western Democracies. He does spent a couple paragraphs basically debunking the Freakonomics theory about Roe vs. Wade. Mostly with the fact that the most responsible women (meaning, those most likely to raise crime-free kids) are also the most likely to have an abortion. That said, he doesn’t offer his own explanation, merely saying that there’s far, far, far too many changes in-play and since there’s no “control” group, it’s impossible to say which have influenced the drop or how important the factors are relative to each other. Interestingly, he also shows some new research that shows the “broken window” crime theory actually works, even when tested independently of having more cops available. Which Freakonomics were skeptical about. I found that surprising. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/34 "2012-11-30T21:56:50Z")
> [@Leaffan](#): > > Old men don’t typically participate in violent crime. Yeah they do. Have you \*seen \*what they wear ? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/35 "2012-11-30T21:59:23Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > Problem is, they didn’t (and it is pretty much impossible to) control for all other possible causes. One is left with an interesting correlation that does not demonstrate causation. Any studies out there showing that gas station attendants and toll-takers have historically been more prone to violence? > > This theory carries about as much believability as the [vinyl-flooring-causes-autism](http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=link-between-autism-and-vinyl) theory. Considering that lead is a known poison of the brain, it’s rather more plausible. In fact, given that fact logically one would expect _some_ effect from the reduction of lead levels, if not necessarily a reduction in violence. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2012, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/36 "2012-11-30T22:38:30Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Considering that lead is a known poison of the brain, it’s rather more plausible. In fact, given that fact logically one would expect _some_ effect from the reduction of lead levels, if not necessarily a reduction in violence. The problem with that hypothesis is that while lead toxicity may be associated with (especially juvenile) aggression and delinquency, it is also a cause of malaise, fatigue, depression, loss of sexual interest and other symptoms which you’d expect to cause a _decrease_ in aggressive/criminal behavior. When some people are feeling more sprightly and sexually active, they’re probably also prone to get into trouble. So I tend to doubt a linear relationship between decreasing lead exposure and declining crime. ---
**Author:** ![Moonchild](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@Moonchild](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moonchild)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2012, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/37 "2012-12-07T00:33:10Z")
The dates don’t absolutely line up, but my pea-brained theory, as ludicrous as it may sound, attributes it to easy access to online porn. When you have an ideal antidote to excessive testosterone levels, umm, _at hand_, and one’s primal urges easily satisfied, could that result in a drop of violent crime? I say yes. 🙂 Note that rape and sex crimes have dropped significantly in recent years, also. ---
**Author:** ![drew870mitchell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drew870mitchell/32/3946_2.png) [@drew870mitchell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drew870mitchell)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2012, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/38 "2012-12-07T01:45:12Z")
> [@Blakeyrat](#): > > He does spent a couple paragraphs basically debunking the Freakonomics theory about Roe vs. Wade. Mostly with the fact that the most responsible women (meaning, those most likely to raise crime-free kids) are also the most likely to have an abortion. I’m totally not following the logic about most responsible women being most likely to have an abortion. Can you expand on that? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2012, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/39 "2012-12-07T20:31:49Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > But crime continued to go up until around the early 90s. The crime stats don’t correlate very well to the age of baby boomers- it’s off by several years. Tru dat. Crime kept going up until the median baby boomer was around 40, and the youngest ones were hitting 30. If it had to do with the boomers, the drop in crime should have started ~10 years earlier. My Google-fu isn’t doing well today, but I’ve seen graphs showing what happened in a bunch of other countries when they got rid of leaded gasoline. Same thing as with us - 20 years later, crime rates started dropping, and kept on dropping for some time. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2012, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/40 "2012-12-07T21:40:33Z")
How about another theory, this [one](http://www.thefreeradical.ca/research/traumaCare.html) specifically about the decline in homicides since the 1960s? > [@](#): > > For all the theoretical talk of ‘‘broken windows’’ and ‘‘zero tolerance’’ policing that has dominated the public discourse on crime during the past decade, research published this year suggests that the most significant factor in keeping the homicide rate down is something much more practical: **faster ambulances and better care in the emergency room**. In short, if you don’t die, you can’t have been murdered! Maybe something good came out of Vietnam after all: > [@](#): > > The steepest decline came in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, when advances in battlefield surgery led to innovations in civilian emergency care. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569.md?page=3)