# Is the recent drop in violent crime due to banning lead in gasoline? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 30, 2012, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569 "2012-11-30T14:27:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2013, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/61 "2013-01-04T15:38:24Z")
[Active thread on the same subject.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=673972) Reported. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2013, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/62 "2013-01-04T15:40:08Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > [Active thread on the same subject.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=673972) > > Reported. Sorry. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2013, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/63 "2013-01-04T15:42:51Z")
Interesting. As an aside I knew a kid in high school. His science project was measuring lead deposits alongside a major (but two lane so not too major) local highway. But it WAS out in the boonies so local contributions were fairly minor. The local chem professors who were helping with how to make the measurements were fairly sure the levels would be nearly too low to detect with the crude method he would have at his disposal. But, the levels he found were high enough that they suspected he screwed something up! Anyway, interesting article. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/64 "2013-01-05T01:08:46Z")
> [@Pork\_Rind](#): > > … The other compelling item … The other other compelling item from that cite, > [@](#): > > The results were dramatic. In 1996, the New York Times reported that crime had plunged for the third straight year, the sharpest drop since the end of Prohibition. Since 1993, rape rates had dropped 17 percent, assault 27 percent, robbery 42 percent, and murder an astonishing 49 percent. Giuliani was on his way to becoming America’s Mayor and Bratton was on the cover of Time. It was a remarkable public policy victory. > > But even more remarkable is what happened next. Shortly after Bratton’s star turn, political scientist John DiIulio warned that the echo of the baby boom would soon produce a demographic bulge of millions of young males that he famously dubbed “juvenile super-predators.” Other criminologists nodded along. But even though the demographic bulge came right on schedule, crime continued to drop. And drop. And drop. By 2010, violent crime rates in New York City had plunged 75 percent from their peak in the early '90s. > [@](#): > > **As Ex-Theorist on Young ‘Superpredators,’ Bush Aide Has Regrets** > > … five years ago, Mr. DiIulio created a whole theory around the notion that ‘‘a new generation of street criminals is upon us – the youngest, biggest and baddest generation any society has ever known.’’ > … > That alarm was sounded in ‘‘Body Count’’(Simon & Schuster, 1996), written with William J. Bennett and John P. Walters, which advanced the theory, since disproved, that these superpredators would sharply increase the level of teenage violence by the turn of this century. … > > … Soon, what had been his chief theory was discredited: instead of rising, the rate of juvenile crime dropped by more than half. > > ‘‘His prediction wasn’t just wrong, it was exactly the opposite,’’ said Franklin E. Zimring, professor of law at the University of California at Berkeley and director of the university’s Earl Warren Legal Institute. ‘‘His theories on superpredators were utter madness.’’ > > Mr. DiIluio still defends the quality of his research, saying that ‘‘the data we used was correct’’ – largely crime statistics and projections of growth in the teenage population. Of his conclusions, however, he said, ‘‘Thank God we were wrong.’’ …[RIGHT][CITE](http://www.nytimes.com/2001/02/09/us/as-ex-theorist-on-young-superpredators-bush-aide-has-regrets.html)[/RIGHT] CMC ---
**Author:** ![Yookeroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yookeroo/32/323_2.png) [@Yookeroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yookeroo)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/65 "2013-01-05T01:16:43Z")
[Lead paint](http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/does-lead-paint-produce-more-crime-too) also seems to show a strong correlation. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/66 "2013-01-05T20:51:06Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > More specifically: Shootings and knifings have increased, but fewer people die from them. > > Now there may be a bit of journalistic trickery here, as shootings that required a hospital stay increased. I don’t see anything about ALL shootings. Could it be that medical technology has improved such that in 2000 a gunshot that would have been fatal in the ER (so not counted in the treatment & release statistic), but in 2010 that life was saved and then admitted to the hospital? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/67 "2013-01-05T21:09:21Z")
> [@](#): > > As Ex-Theorist on Young ‘Superpredators,’ Bush Aide Has Regrets > > … five years ago, Mr. DiIulio created a whole theory around the notion that ‘‘a new generation of street criminals is upon us – the youngest, biggest and baddest generation any society has ever known.’’ Maybe they did not go to the regular streets, but to Wall Street.. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/68 "2013-01-05T21:31:00Z")
Isn’t every successive generation the youngest one? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/69 "2013-01-05T21:42:31Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Could it be that medical technology has improved such that in 2000 a gunshot that would have been fatal in the ER (so not counted in the treatment & release statistic), but in 2010 that life was saved and then admitted to the hospital? That may play a very small part to play but those crimes would still be assault and violent crime including assault is down across the board. IMHO there is no single cause of the drop but the reduction of lead exposure is one of the many factors that have helped reduce violence in general. But I agree it is probably paint because the violent crime rate in the US hit an all time historical low in about 1950, almost 40 years after the introduction of the car and at least a generation after they were common. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/70 "2013-01-05T21:51:49Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > . . . > > This would undoubtedly need some more research, but if it’s shown to be so, this is a very strong piece of evidence in any argument for the usefulness of federal government action, and an example of how the free market may not be able to solve some problems by itself. Thoughts? Actually, as a resident of Southern California I remember many days 40 or so years ago when the sky was a shade of yellowish-brown, and breathing was difficult and at times painful. The fact that those days are all but forgotten is sufficient reason for me to appreciate the usefulness of the government’s activities in that regard. If it lowered crime, great. If not, we’re still ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/71 "2013-01-05T22:01:07Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > But I agree it is probably paint because the violent crime rate in the US hit an all time historical low in about 1950, almost 40 years after the introduction of the car and at least a generation after they were common. Pb in gasoline per capita in 1958 was four times the level in 1937. I know this because I looked at the linked articles instead of assuming that an objection I thought of six seconds after hearing about a theory was just too clever to have been considered by people that had spent days months or years studying that same theory. ---
**Author:** ![Yookeroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yookeroo/32/323_2.png) [@Yookeroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yookeroo)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2013, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/72 "2013-01-05T23:05:16Z")
A little [follow-up](http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime-ill-be-melissa-harris-perry-show-sunday-10-am). ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2013, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/73 "2013-01-06T06:31:27Z")
> [@Leaffan](#): > > It looks like a very specious theory to me. People keep saying this, but I have yet to see anyone effectively debunk it. (As someone born right in the peak period for lead and mourning the probable brain damage I incurred, I would only be too happy to see a thorough refutation if one were possible.) ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2013, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/74 "2013-01-06T16:25:52Z")
“I have yet to see anyone effectively debunk it” just isn’t a very good proof of anything. There is clearly a correlation there, and it seems to hold not just across time but across various countries. That’s not a definitive proof. I’ll wait for a few more scientific studies of the matter and a statement by some official scientific body which looks at many different studies in order to make a more thorough report. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2013, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/75 "2013-01-07T00:51:07Z")
> [@Pork\_Rind](#): > > Add to that that modern day crime rates seem to correlate well with regional lead contamination down to the neighborhood level, well, it looks pretty damning to me. I’m not sure how much this alone tells us. Low-income people disproportionately live in contaminated neighborhoods. They’re contaminated with lead, and they’re contaminated with crime, but that doesn’t show that one caused the other. For instance, nobody would say that lead contamination causes old cars and payday lenders, even though the neighborhood-level correlation is probably solid. ---
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2013, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/76 "2013-01-07T15:00:41Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > “I have yet to see anyone effectively debunk it” just isn’t a very good proof of anything. There is clearly a correlation there, and it seems to hold not just across time but across various countries. That’s not a definitive proof. There also appears to be a well-documented biological mechanism. > [@Tom\_Tildrum](#): > > I’m not sure how much this alone tells us. Low-income people disproportionately live in contaminated neighborhoods. They’re contaminated with lead, and they’re contaminated with crime, but that doesn’t show that one caused the other. For instance, nobody would say that lead contamination causes old cars and payday lenders, even though the neighborhood-level correlation is probably solid. That is correct, but the issue here is that changing the burden of environmental lead changes the crime burden. Without any changes in income. The correlation seems to hold over a wide variety of variables, including income. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2013, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/77 "2013-01-07T15:51:54Z")
Grim Render, my point was that there not being an effective debunking is not, by itself, sufficient to disprove it. Lots of times someone will throw out out a single interesting fact suggesting that X causes Y and then demand a debunking of it. That’s not necessary. The theory that lead in gasoline causes crime has much more evidence for it, but it’s not quite at the level where we can say that it’s generally accepted. I’m saying that we should continue to think about this and do studies on it. Yes, it looks good at the moment. No, it’s not quite at the level of a generally accepted scientific theory. That was my point. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2013, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/78 "2013-01-10T02:08:49Z")
So two of the best explanations for the crime drop are environmental regulation and abortion. Conservatives getting trolled. Next topic where everyone is shocked that pollution actually has negative effects: endocrine disruptors? ---
**Author:** ![Yookeroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yookeroo/32/323_2.png) [@Yookeroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yookeroo)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2013, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/79 "2013-01-30T00:14:26Z")
["Lead and Crime: Why this correlation does mean causation."](http://ricknevin.com/uploads/Lead_and_Crime_-_Why_This_Correlation_Does_Mean_Causation.pdf)by Rick Nevin. Note, this is a link to a pdf. ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2013, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569/80 "2013-01-30T00:46:43Z")
Thank you. I feel vindicated. “Hey, here’s a trend. Hey, here’s another trend. I’m convinced they’re related without doing any research!” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-recent-drop-in-violent-crime-due-to-banning-lead-in-gasoline/642569.md?page=5)