Is the second law of thermodynamics routinely violated?

If you want to consider the first throw part of the initial state, that’s fine by me. But I still don’t understand how it follows that the second throw has 50% probability. I assume the deterministic process that decides whether to throw A or B, the process we don’t know about, depends on the currently showing side of the coin. Otherwise this whole example of throwing a single coin has no relevance to the point you were trying to make - proving a law that says “the [theoretical] system will always become more grey over time”.

Very well.

But we don’t know that downward fluctuations in entropy are small and fast. They could just as well be large and slow. And besides, I can observe the flickering of an LCD display with any number of optical devices. On older monitors I can pick up the flickering with the naked eye. I have at my disposal a number of tools which can distinguish very slight differences between colors in photographs.

This absolutely depends on microdynamics. Is picking “any pixel other than the one you’ve flipped before” “until you’ve reached a 50/50 distribution of black vs. white pixels” a rule? How do you determine which “other” pixel to flip, is it actually random? After you reached 50/50 distribution, how do you determine which pixel to flip then? Are you implying the flips after that are picked at random? If not, how can you assign a 50% probability of evolving towards equilibrium?

It does not follow that the system will evolve towards a more grey state simply because there are more ways to do so than to do otherwise. There could be 999 ways to evolve to a more grey state and one way to do otherwise, but it does not follow that the system will do so or is even likely to do so. You are missing a premise.

~Max