# Is the situation in Iraq improving? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 9, 2007, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335 "2007-04-09T16:16:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2007, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/81 "2007-04-28T14:54:12Z")
[The White House Scales Back Talk of Iraq Progress](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/washington/28prexy.html?ex=1335412800&en=c70bf946fc39340b&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss) > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON, April 27 — The Bush administration will not try to assess whether the troop increase in Iraq is producing signs of political progress or greater security until September, and many of Mr. Bush’s top advisers now anticipate that any gains by then will be limited, according to senior administration officials. > > In interviews over the past week, the officials made clear that the White House is gradually scaling back its expectations for the government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. The timelines they are now discussing suggest that the White House may maintain the increased numbers of American troops in Iraq well into next year. And: > [@](#): > > Several American officials who have spoken recently with Mr. Maliki say they believe that he would like to achieve the kind of political reconciliation that Mr. Bush outlined in January as the ultimate goal of the troop increase. But they say the Iraqi prime minister appears to have little ability to manage the required legislation, including bills requiring fair distribution of oil revenues among Iraq’s Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, and reversing the American-led de-Baathification that barred many Sunnis from participation in the new government. So: little military progress, and no reason to expect any political progress anyway. _So gather up your jackets, and move it to the exits…_ ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2007, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/82 "2007-04-28T14:57:05Z")
Yeah, but the one thing I can’t figure out is why September? Unless they’re going to release the data on September 11th in an attempt to have it swamped by 9/11 flagellation, what’s special about September? -Joe ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2007, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/83 "2007-04-28T21:03:23Z")
Apparently the Pentagon is scheduled to do a “comprehensive review” or some such in September. That’s the straight answer. David Kurtz, who posts at TalkingPointsMemo on weekends to give Josh Marshall a breather, recalled that in December, they’d published this email from a reader: > [@anonymous TPM reader](#): > > It hit me the other day that what the surge is going to accomplish for Bush and Cheney is to take them through these next two years. By the time they can claim to have the extra troops in Baghdad it’s gonna be May or June. They’ll be there a few months till everyone has to admit that it isn’t working . . . then it will be the end of 2007 and the argument will be about whether we should remove some of the surge troops. That will take a few months, at least, and we’ll be in the throes of a presidential election. Bush won’t want to do anything too “political” at that point, of course, so he’ll happily leave it to the new prez to make shitcakes out of shit. And Bush and Cheney will spin it for all it’s worth for the rest of their lives… Kurtz: “We’re right on schedule.” ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2007, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/84 "2007-04-28T21:42:00Z")
[Rebuilt Iraq Projects Found Crumbling](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/29/world/middleeast/29reconstruct.html?hp) > [@](#): > > In a troubling sign for the American-financed rebuilding program in Iraq, inspectors for a federal oversight agency have found that in a sampling of eight projects that the United States had declared successes, seven were no longer operating as designed because of plumbing and electrical failures, lack of proper maintenance, apparent looting and expensive equipment that lay idle. > … > The inspections ranged geographically from northern to southern Iraq and covered projects as varied as a maternity hospital, barracks for an Iraqi special forces unit and a power station for Baghdad International Airport. > > At the airport, crucially important for the functioning of the country, inspectors found that while $11.8 million had been spent on new electrical generators, $8.6 million worth were no longer functioning. > … > Officials at the oversight agency, the Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, said they had made an effort to sample different regions and various types of projects, but that they were constrained from taking a true random sample in part because many projects were in areas too unsafe to visit. So, they said, the initial set of eight projects — which cost a total of about $150 million — cannot be seen as a true statistical measure of the thousands of projects in the roughly $30 billion American rebuilding program. I’m certain that the projects in areas which are too dangerous to enter are all working perfectly. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2007, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/85 "2007-04-28T22:00:41Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] [Rebuilt Iraq Projects Found Crumbling](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/29/world/middleeast/29reconstruct.html?hp) I’m certain that the projects in areas which are too dangerous to enter are all working perfectly. 😉 [/QUOTE] **Squink** , that’s an excellent topic for its own thread, no? I’m tempted to run with it myself, but I don’t want to steal your thunder. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2007, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/86 "2007-04-29T00:48:23Z")
[QUOTE=Qadgop the Mercotan] **Squink** , that’s an excellent topic for its own thread, no? I’m tempted to run with it myself, but I don’t want to steal your thunder. [/QUOTE] Feel free to slither round the after-bulge of the tranship, and dig in your claws. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2007, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/87 "2007-04-30T01:25:16Z")
[Looks like we’re back to artillery barrages against Baghdad neighborhoods](http://www.africasia.com/services/news/newsitem.php?area=mideast&item=070429080155.7oejtq1p.php), which [Petraeus says doesn’t work](http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24fd.pdf). Or he used to say that, anyway. And the current toll from today’s suicide bombing in Karbala is 68 dead, 178 injured. Good thing we’re [excluding those from the stats](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=418361), or we’d never realize things in Iraq are getting better. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2007, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/88 "2007-04-30T16:53:11Z")
There was just a big [purge,](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/29/AR2007042901728.html?hpid=topnews) apparently originating in Maliki’s office, of army and police officers, “some of whom had apparently worked too aggressively to combat violent Shiite militias.” ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2007, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/89 "2007-04-30T17:07:39Z")
The utter clusterfuck nature of all this and the monumental idiocy of those doing it, as well as their supporters on this board, would be funny if it weren’t for the fact that they’re killing thousands of people. Maybe it’s funny in a sort of insane, laughter-of-the-damned way. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2007, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/90 "2007-04-30T17:08:06Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] There was just a big [purge,](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/29/AR2007042901728.html?hpid=topnews) apparently originating in Maliki’s office, of army and police officers, “some of whom had apparently worked too aggressively to combat violent Shiite militias.” [/QUOTE] Well, geez, who’d’a thunk it? After all, [when Bush announced the surge back in January](http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html), he said: > [@](#): > > I’ve made it clear to the Prime Minister and Iraq’s other leaders that America’s commitment is not open-ended. If the Iraqi government does not follow through on its promises, it will lose the support of the American people – and it will lose the support of the Iraqi people. Now is the time to act. The Prime Minister understands this. Here is what he told his people just last week: “The Baghdad security plan will not provide a safe haven for any outlaws, regardless of [their] sectarian or political affiliation.” Guess Maliki wasn’t _quite_ being straight with Bush. And so, as Bush said, “If the Iraqi government does not follow through on its promises, it will lose the support of the American people,” and “America’s commitment is not open-ended.” So I wonder what Bush’s response to this will be? :rolleyes: Dunno about Bush yet, but [what Condi says](http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2007/apr/83960.htm) is this: > [@](#): > > The problem is that if you try and make consequences about these benchmarks, you’re tying the hands of General Petreaus and the hands of Ambassador Crocker. So if the Iraqi government doesn’t even try to meet the benchmarks, the Bush Administration isn’t going to assign any consequences. So I guess what Bush means is that, quite specifically, _the American people_ will stop supporting the war, and will demand action through their elected representatives, and that will effect the non-open-endedness of America’s support for Maliki’s government. Except that Bush is going to veto Congress’ efforts in that direction. I guess that our support for the Iraqi government is open-ended after all. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2007, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/91 "2007-05-01T10:36:15Z")
[Apparently political reconciliation isn’t working either](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/01/world/middleeast/01iraq.html?ei=5090&en=d8f6ca553bbd7627&ex=1335672000&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all): > [@](#): > > BAGHDAD, April 30 — The largest bloc of Sunni Arabs in the Iraqi Parliament threatened to withdraw its ministers from the Shiite-dominated cabinet on Monday in frustration over the government’s failure to deal with Sunni concerns. > > President Bush stepped in to forestall the move, calling one of Iraq’s two vice presidents, Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni Arab, and inviting him to Washington, according to a statement issued by Mr. Hashimi’s office and the White House. > > The bloc, known as the Iraqi Consensus Front and made up of three Sunni Arab parties, “has lost hope in rectifying the situation despite all of its sincere and serious efforts to do so,” the statement said. > > If the Sunni group followed through on its threat, it would further weaken a government already damaged by the pullout two weeks ago of six cabinet ministers aligned with the renegade Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr and further erode American efforts to promote reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2007, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/92 "2007-05-01T12:11:39Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] The utter clusterfuck nature of all this and the monumental idiocy of those doing it, as well as their supporters on this board, would be funny if it weren’t for the fact that they’re killing thousands of people. Maybe it’s funny in a sort of insane, laughter-of-the-damned way. [/QUOTE] Nah, it’s “funny” in a “It’s not me because I’m safely here in the UK/Canada” kind of way. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2007, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/93 "2007-05-01T12:17:23Z")
The surge is a delaying tactic to put the problem in the lap of the next administration. What they will do is fraught with danger. How can they simply pull out and let the mess continue. Yet staying will involve us in the mess. We have spent billions on bases and an embassy, could we abandon them? Nothing we have done is real. The building we did is crumbling . The people want us out. But so much money has gone into the military industrial corporations ,that they will politically force us to stay. What a mess. I am ashamed of what we have become. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2007, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/94 "2007-05-01T12:58:24Z")
[QUOTE=gonzomax] What a mess. I am ashamed of what we have become. [/QUOTE] Me too. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boo_Boo_Foo)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2007, 9:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/95 "2007-05-02T09:42:03Z")
[QUOTE=Der Trihs] Because it’s _not_ a fact; there’s no evidence that us staying longer will do anything but stretch out the chaos and death. [/QUOTE] The converse is also true. Given that the future has not yet taken place, there is no evidence that pulling out right now WILL NOT stretch out the chaos and death either. At best, all that you (or I) can do is extrapolate existing dots into the future, but nobody can definitely state what WILL happen. That’s the problem with accusing someone else’s arguement of not being a fact in a debate. You better make sure that YOUR rebuttal is a fact itself, which in this particular debate, it isn’t. Your rebuttal is speculation too. So what am I getting at? Well, it’s this… ad hominem logic comes in more forms than just attacking someone on a personal level. The goal of an ad hominem is to somehow prove someone else’s claim is untrue by introducing irrelevant issues not pertinent to the discussion. But ultimately it’s a logical fallacy. And that’s what you did here. You tried to prove the original claim was untrue by implying that your converse assertion IS true - but your counter claim is also speculation. Hence, the score is still nil-nil. [QUOTE=Der Trihs] I expect they would; after our occupation and the chaos that will continue once we leave, they’ll look back at Saddam’s reign as a golden age by comparison. It’s already worse than it was under him, and it’s going to keep getting worse for a long time. [/QUOTE] Consider this quote as another example. This again, is a logical fallacy on your part which again is defined as an ad hominem digression. The title of this debate is NOT “Is Iraq better off than it was under Saddam?” Introducing an emotional digression which “seemingly” is related (but ultimately isn’t) does NOT prove the original claims are untrue. It merely reflects a poor debating capacity. Noting that things were more peaceful under Saddam (which is true) does NOT mean that your later claim that “it’s going to keep worse for a long time” is ALSO true. That’s just speculation wrapped up in ad hominem logical fallacy. In my opinion, it’s highly likely that an ABSCENCE of American soldiers will expedite a mini Rawanda secnario, but I would dare not pass that off as fact. Hence, my answer to the “true” question in this debate is this… statistically, the evidence would indicate that Iraq is averaging the worst rate of death and carnage than at anytime in the past 4 years - which is incredibly sad, considering that Iraq had never known a car bombing in it’s history prior to 2003. The evidence would indicate that in Baghdad specifically, the quality of life amongst civilians is the lowest it has been in the past 4 years, which also means it’s the lowest it’s been since before 1970. Iraq once had a very wealthy middle class (in regional relative terms). My personal position on how to solve that problem has been outlined elsewhere, but that’s not what this thread asked. Right now, as at today’s date, I haven’t seen any conclusive evidence that the curves are levelling out, let alone getting better. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2007, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/96 "2007-05-02T10:43:34Z")
[QUOTE=Boo Boo Foo] The converse is also true. Given that the future has not yet taken place, there is no evidence that pulling out right now WILL NOT stretch out the chaos and death either. [/quote] Of course there is. The fact that we created this situation; the fact that it’s only getting worse with us there. Without removing the cause, how can things **ever** get better ? For any solution to the mess in Iraq, Step 1 is get America out. Before healing can begin, you have to stop the stabbing. [QUOTE=Boo Boo Foo] At best, all that you (or I) can do is extrapolate existing dots into the future, but nobody can definitely state what WILL happen. That’s the problem with accusing someone else’s arguement of not being a fact in a debate. You better make sure that YOUR rebuttal is a fact itself, which in this particular debate, it isn’t. Your rebuttal is speculation too. [/quote] Sorry, no. First, I never said that my predictions are **facts** ; normally, the assumption when one speaks of future events is that you are not speaking of facts. **Ryan\_Liam** ’s argument WAS that staying is better for the Iraqis is a fact. Not an opinion, not a prediction, not a projection; such an obvious “fact” that he doesn’t know “why can’t people deal with” it. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2007, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/97 "2007-05-02T15:42:27Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] The utter clusterfuck nature of all this and the monumental idiocy of those doing it, as well as their supporters on this board, would be funny if it weren’t for the fact that they’re killing thousands of people. Maybe it’s funny in a sort of insane, laughter-of-the-damned way. [/QUOTE] What do you think should be done, honestly? I find it very easy to support a withdrawal because then Iraq would not be the problem of the United States anymore. But I’m not sure how any American could sleep at night with that decision. For better or worse, we toppled Saddam Hussein’s government. Hussein was a strongman who kept racial and religious strife in the country controlled via absolute dictatorship. Removing him was not a bad thing, but removing him also incidentally destroyed the stability he provided. The United States went into this war with its eyes open, it was openly stated from the beginning we planned to remove Saddam which means everyone everywhere should have been aware that meant we were going to be responsible for establishing the post-Saddam government. We knew what we were doing, and major errors were made in doing it. A lot of the blame can be placed on the military leadership and I do not just mean the military leadership who actually lead the invasion or planned the invasion. I mean the military leadership dating back to 1990 or so, and the civilian leadership that has continued to fund the development of weapons only useful in huge conventional wars (like massive mobile artillery, for example.) We’ve continually funded stuff to equip the military to fight the next World War II, dating all the way back to well, World War II. Fighter planes, artillery, strategic bombers, et cetera are all important; and we should have them in case we ever do fight a conventional war again. But let’s be honest, the last two major wars (the current one and the Vietnam war) were not conventional wars by and large. While Vietnam had some significant “conventional” battles, the general erosion of support for said war was by and large the result of unconventional attacks that cause high casualties. I’m not saying we need to take away entirely funding and training towards fighting traditional wars, but we need people in the upper echelons of military leadership and people in the civilian leadership who are committed to structuring the military around counter-insurgency. It’s easy, incredibly easy, to say situations are unwinnable. I don’t like it when people says a situation is unwinnable because then it’s easy to say “well, whoever got us involved was stupid and everyone else is blameless.” That’s the easy way out and helps no one. The truth of the matter is, few situations are truly unwinnable from the beginning, they have to be mismanaged at many different stages to reach a point where you could even begin to say a situation is unwinnable. One of the best ways to fight an insurgency is to provide security to the population. You do that by actually being around the population and providing security. We’re doing that, to a degree, in Iraq. But the focus is still far too heavily on us being deployed in entrenched bases and only going out into the public for sorties. It’s arguable as to whether we’re truly fighting an insurgency aimed at removing us any more. I think we’re probably more aptly termed to be trying to keep the peace between various factions. This also is something we’re going to be doing a lot, and have done a lot, throughout the 1990s. And just like dealing with an insurgency, helping to stop two or more sides from fighting is based on large part in the ability to project security to the population. Back to **RickJay** ’s post, I continue to support the leadership because the alternative is a withdrawal, which I view as immoral. Right or wrong, we went into Iraq, and the majority of the United States supported that decision. Even if we accept all the Democratic propaganda about how ill-considered this action was, I do not see how that absolves us of our greater responsibility to the Iraqi people. Withdrawal will not end the war, it will just remove us from it. We do not have the power to end the war by withdrawing, something the Democrats conveniently don’t mention. Their focus is on “bringing our boys home” which is all well and good, but the United States has a responsibility to Iraq. Maybe us being there makes things worse than it would be if we withdrew, but somehow I doubt that. Despite the fact Iraqis are being killed by Americans–both insurgents and civilians killed collaterally, does not necessarily equate to saying less death would be going on if we left. In fact it could easily lead to more death. In any case, I think because of our responsibility to the Iraqi people a unilateral withdrawal is totally unacceptable morally, the only acceptable withdrawal is one that is requested by the Iraqi government. Until that happens we have a responsibility to continually refine our strategies to try and be most effective there. Which is why I don’t have a problem with a General doing something that in the past they said was ineffective. Generals are not politicians, they have to make decisions on shorter timetables and with less collaboration, and Generals have to be ready to experiment, continuously. A politician is afraid of “going back on their word” because it may make them look bad in the press. A General cannot be afraid of that, if a General mistakenly said a strategy was ineffective but later has reason to think it would be effective, the General has a responsibility to employ that strategy. ---
**Author:** ![duality72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duality72/32/3910_2.png) [@duality72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duality72)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2007, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/98 "2007-05-02T15:54:21Z")
[QUOTE=Martin Hyde] But I’m not sure how any American could sleep at night with that decision. [/QUOTE] The Iraqi people don’t want us there and it’s their call. I’ll sleep just fine. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2007, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/99 "2007-05-02T16:05:54Z")
[QUOTE=Boo Boo Foo] The converse is also true. Given that the future has not yet taken place, there is no evidence that pulling out right now WILL NOT stretch out the chaos and death either. At best, all that you (or I) can do is extrapolate existing dots into the future, but nobody can definitely state what WILL happen. That’s the problem with accusing someone else’s arguement of not being a fact in a debate. You better make sure that YOUR rebuttal is a fact itself, which in this particular debate, it isn’t. Your rebuttal is speculation too. [/QUOTE] Well we DO know what is happening NOW and none of it is indicative of any positive effect the American occupation might be having in Iraq. Quite the opposite actually: [Despair stalks Baghdad as plan falters](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6575717.stm) > [@](#): > > …An average of 80-90 Americans die each month. And US personnel have just had their tours extended by another three months. > > But, as it has always been since the 2003 invasion, it is the Iraqis who suffer most. > > No-one knows the exact figures, but at the end of another week of unspeakable, random carnage, hundreds more Iraqi families are grieving. > > Exhaustion and despair hang over the country. > > And there are no signs of change. – highlights mine. And you also have this: [Poll: Iraqis pessimistic about war’s outcome](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17687430/) > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON - The optimism that helped sustain Iraqis during the first few years of the war has dissolved into widespread fear, anger and distress amid unrelenting violence, a survey found. > > The poll — the third in Iraq since early 2004 by ABC News and media partners — draws a stark portrait of an increasingly pessimistic population under great emotional stress. Among the findings of this survey for ABC News, USA Today, the BBC and ARD German TV: > > The number of Iraqis who say their own life is going well has dipped from 71 percent in November 2005 to 39 percent now. > > About three-fourths of Iraqis report feelings of anger, depression and difficulty concentrating. > > More than half of Iraqis have curtailed activities like going out of their homes, going to markets or other crowded places and traveling through police checkpoints. > > **Only 18 percent of Iraqis have confidence in U.S. and coalition troops, and 86 percent are concerned that someone in their household will be a victim of violence** > > \ > > **For the first time since 2003, fewer than half in the country, 42 percent, said that life in Iraq now is better than it was under Saddam Hussein, the late dictator accused of murdering tens of thousands during a brutal regime.** - again, highlights mine. Thus: 1-Things have only gotten progressively worse since the start of the occupation. Thus there’s no _logical_ reason to think that prolonging said occupation is going to magically reverse that trend. 2-It has been made abundantly clear by the Iraqis themselves that you are NOT wanted there. Now, those are FACTS and anything else posted by the remnants of the pro-war crowd is sheer delusion. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2007, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335/100 "2007-05-02T16:33:59Z")
**Martin** , I sympathize with your position, I held to the “broke it - must fix it” position for some time. There is much to be said for responsibility for our actions. But at a certain point it becomes nothing more than penance, nothing more than suffering for the sake of suffering. Even if our will is benign and pure, we cannot enforce that will. We don’t have the power to _force_ a peaceful resolution. Perhaps - \*perhaps! \* - if we had made the right moves some years back, we might have been able to shepherd the Iraqi people towards an acceptable state of mutual comity and respect. Be that as it may, that time is long past, we cannot stuff the Cheney back into the bottle. We cannot cut their losses, we can only cut ours. Out now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-situation-in-iraq-improving/399335.md?page=6)