[QUOTE=China Guy]
so when the global markets nose dives later this year =, does that mean global investors suddenly disagree with dubya?
[/QUOTE]
No, silly. That will be caused by the pubpic’s nervous anticipation of the election of a Democratic President.
Plus, Kudlow seems to think that the good economic news has been consistent since '03, so he’ll dismiss any downturn as an anomaly against the bigger “good news picture.”
[QUOTE=Public Animal No. 9]
Main Street and Wall Street are connected much more today than they have been in the past. 401(k) plans, mutual funds, retirement funds all invest in US stocks, and internet access allows people to invest much more directly than pre-1990 or so.
[/QUOTE]
Yes, but-
What percentage of Americans own stock, either directly or through a fund?
Of those that do own some stock, for what percentage of those people is stock ownership a significant percentage of their total assets?
I know a lot of people who might have a claim to some interest in the stock market, but for most of them, it doesn’t amount to much. For most, their home is their big asset, and home values are taking a beating in a lot of markets. Meaning that even if some schlub’s 401(k) is doing better this year, he’s still losing ground overall via the faltering housing market and high interest rates on home equity loans.
That’s just my sense of things. I just don’t get the sense that the stock market run-up is is any particular cause for rejoicing out among the masses. Most folks are too worried about making that mortgage payment on the loan that is ticking upward, against a house that is now worth less than the loan. Meanwhile, they’re wondering if their job is about to be shipped abroad, or taken by an undocumented immigrant who can work for less. And gas prices just aren’t going down.
If the booming stock market is such a big boost to the man on the street, then why is consumer confidence dropping?
Larry Kudlow would think so. The stock market just IS.
On the show just before Kudlow, they ran a story about France’s corporate tax rate being cut by 10%. The commentator asked if it was better to do business in France. “Now, now, hold onto your preconcieved notions!” she said right after. Apparently, France has dropped some of their taxes, so their questions were twofold: is it better to do business in France than America and are American taxes killing the economy?? This story was run yesterday, when the market broke 14000 for the first time ever.
Now, the business community yelps when “protectionist measures” are enacted and keep on going about how it’s bad for business. So, the market, looking at it from a hundred year standpoint, hasn’t been going up? So the market, from a 10 year standpoint, hasn’t been steadily going up? Right. So, if the low taxes meant that France would become the world’s new superpower or jump up to the plate and kick all the ass in the now-exploding European market, then why hasn’t Ireland with its 12.5% corporate tax rate dominating the EU with policies?
Right. “Best story never told”…
dalej42, the same channel ran stories about Clinton and Obama getting cash from Wall Street. Is it to get protectionist measures off the books? Hedging bets? Nobody knows!!
I do. Wall Street wants to back the winner.
And, for being a right-wing dude, there are times that Kudlow sounds almost rational. When talking about universal health care, he bickered with the two talking heads they had. One talking head was pro, the other was con. When they all had their arguments, Kudlow said something to the effect of “Well, I don’t see it happening, and I think it’s bad, but I could be wrong.” That’s a sentence that I don’t think that most pundits on Fox have ever uttered. I do like how even the person with lefty-thought du jour is the mildly nutty one in the group of their talking heads. It makes me giggle.
I watch that damned channel all day at work. It’s (literally) my job now.
[QUOTE=Leaper]
To be fair, something kinda serious happened in 2001 that would probably keep the economy a little blah for a while, President or no.
[/QUOTE]
Look at it in perspective. 911 is pretty much imperceptible. Let’s see, the market was closed on the 11th. When opening back up on the 17th, it fell 684.81, fell 140.40 the next day, fell 82.24 the next, then went up 488.95 the next and 447.49 the next. Oh yeah, September 7th, it fell 234.99 points.
If you’re saying the economy = the market, then no, it didn’t really do much blah.
Again, some people are making a shitton of money. Your average Joe is not.
Come on, it’s not just the market. You have to dig really deep these days to dredge up poor economic numbers. Let’s go down the list:
Unemployment: Near historical lows.
GDP Growth: 22 consecutive quarters of economic growth - the longest peacetime expansion in U.S. history.
Interest rates: Low and stable.
Inflation: low and stable.
Average Hourly Earnings Up from $14.25 in 2002 to $17.40 today.
Real disposable income: Up from $27,350 in 2005 to $28,200 today.
Current Account Deficit: Falling for the last three quarters.
Retail Sales: High and increasing.
Deficit significantly below the post-war historical average in terms of debt/GDP, and falling faster than predicted. It’s already below half of its peak level of a few years ago.
The Stock Market: At all time highs. Major growth in the past year.
Everyone in this thread knows that if a Democrat presided over that economy you’d all be gloating and shouting, “It’s the economy, stupid!”. To deny that this has been an extremely good economy is raw partisanship.
To be sure, there are some areas that haven’t seen the kinds of gains other areas have. Before tax employment income is not increasing as fast as you would expect. Due to tax cuts however, after-take take home pay has increased significantly.
These’s a potential problem coming in the mortage industry, and new housing starts are down. That’s about the worst part of the entire economy. But that doesn’t make this a bad economy - it makes it a great economy in which some sectors gained more than others.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Come on, it’s not just the market. You have to dig really deep these days to dredge up poor economic numbers. Let’s go down the list:
Unemployment: Near historical lows.
GDP Growth: 22 consecutive quarters of economic growth - the longest peacetime expansion in U.S. history.
Interest rates: Low and stable.
Inflation: low and stable.
Average Hourly Earnings Up from $14.25 in 2002 to $17.40 today.
Real disposable income: Up from $27,350 in 2005 to $28,200 today.
Current Account Deficit: Falling for the last three quarters.
Retail Sales: High and increasing.
Deficit significantly below the post-war historical average in terms of debt/GDP, and falling faster than predicted. It’s already below half of its peak level of a few years ago.
The Stock Market: At all time highs. Major growth in the past year.
Everyone in this thread knows that if a Democrat presided over that economy you’d all be gloating and shouting, “It’s the economy, stupid!”. To deny that this has been an extremely good economy is raw partisanship.
To be sure, there are some areas that haven’t seen the kinds of gains other areas have. Before tax employment income is not increasing as fast as you would expect. Due to tax cuts however, after-take take home pay has increased significantly.
These’s a potential problem coming in the mortage industry, and new housing starts are down. That’s about the worst part of the entire economy. But that doesn’t make this a bad economy - it makes it a great economy in which some sectors gained more than others.
[/QUOTE]
Hey, Sam, come on down, things are great.
'Course, here in Alberta things are even better…
I’m curious. Are these median values? Weighted median values? Or did someone just take 2002 GDP and divide it by 297,000,000 and then take current figures and divide them by 301,000,000?
Why is the dollar so low against other currencies?
Most people want to give Bush’s policies a thumbs up. In one way or another.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Everyone in this thread knows that if a Democrat presided over that economy you’d all be gloating and shouting, “It’s the economy, stupid!”.
[/QUOTE]
And Republicans would be whining that the President has little power to move the economy, and if he did, it was due to Reagan’s policies.
[QUOTE=Fear Itself]
And Republicans would be whining that the President has little power to move the economy, and if he did, it was due to Reagan’s policies.
[/QUOTE]
Yeah, probably. Partisanship cuts both ways.
tomndebb: I don’t know how the measure is taken. I got the numbers from the BLS economic indicators summary.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
'Course, here in Alberta things are even better…
[/QUOTE]
Well I’ll be darned. And that is without a tax cut for you guys? How in hell to you do that?
[QUOTE=David Simmons]
Well I’ll be darned. And that is without a tax cut for you guys? How in hell to you do that?
[/QUOTE]
Actually, Alberta has by far the lowest taxes in Canada, and in fact Albertans are taxed less than most people in the U.S.
You might want to check these kinds of facts before dishing out the snark, lest it come back and bite you.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Actually, Alberta has by far the lowest taxes in Canada, and in fact Albertans are taxed less than most people in the U.S.
You might want to check these kinds of facts before dishing out the snark, lest it come back and bite you.
[/QUOTE]
Well, Canadian taxes are higher as a fraction of GDP than in the US. Is Alberta doing better than the rest of Canada?
My checking around on the net tells me that Canada’s economy overall has been good lately and not just Alberta’s.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Come on, it’s not just the market. You have to dig really deep these days to dredge up poor economic numbers. Let’s go down the list:
GDP Growth: 22 consecutive quarters of economic growth
Current Account Deficit: Falling for the last three quarters.
[/QUOTE]
Just curious, why highlight the past 22 quarters for GDP Growth but only the last 3 for the deficit?
[QUOTE=David Simmons]
Well, Canadian taxes are higher as a fraction of GDP than in the US. Is Alberta doing better than the rest of Canada?
[/QUOTE]
Yes. Dramatically. We have low provincial income taxes, low business taxes, and we’re the only province without a provincial sales tax.
From this cite:
Alberta corporations pay an average of 32.1% of income. In the U.S., the average is 39.1%
A two-income family of four earning $75,000 pays about $1,848 less in total provincial taxes, including health care premiums, sales and other excise taxes, in Alberta than in Ontario and almost $2,874 less than in Quebec.
Canada’s economy looks good in large part because of Alberta. In 2006, Alberta’s economy grew at a rate of 6.8%, while Canada on average (including Alberta) was at 2.7%.
And personal income is way up. In the last 10 years, Alberta has pulled away dramatically from the rest of Canada in per-capita income, and Albertans now make on average 156% of the Canadian average income. Other provinces have been following suit, lowering taxes and bidding to be more competitive. Saskatchewan, for example, lowered its provincial.
Our booming energy industry is a big part of that, but not the only part. The Alberta economy is growing robustly across a diverse range of industries. And out of the oil profits we give billions of dollars to the east. Quebec gets as much from equalization payments from other provinces as Alberta earns in oil. And yet, Quebec only managed to grow its economy 1.7% last year. High taxes, low investment.
[QUOTE=Patty O’Furniture]
Just curious, why highlight the past 22 quarters for GDP Growth but only the last 3 for the deficit?
[/QUOTE]
The 22 quarters was an historical record.
But fair enough, you can go back further to where the current account deficit was worse. But the trend line has been down for three quarters. Overall, it’s gone through a long spell where it was quite large.