# Is the Syrian situation likely to escalate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 19, 2017, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389 "2017-06-19T18:37:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/41 "2017-06-20T14:59:10Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > When did the US declare war on Syria? There is a war going on in Syria, and we are participating in it. That’s all that matters. Or is it your contention that: 1. There is no war in Syria. 2. We are not participating in that war. If so, please explain. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/42 "2017-06-20T14:59:27Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > When did the US declare war on Syria? When did Russia and Syria declare war on the US? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/43 "2017-06-20T15:09:08Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > When did the US declare war on Syria? Well, no one has declared war on anyone. Doesn’t negate the fact that fighting is taking place and that the US has, for years now, participated in that fighting. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/44 "2017-06-20T15:49:47Z")
Apparently the Iranians wanted in on the party too: [US shoots down Iranian drone in Syria](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/06/20/breaking-us-shoots-down-iranian-drone-in-syria.html) > [@](#): > > The armed pro-regime Shaheed-129 UAV was shot down by a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle about 12:30 a.m. after it displayed hostile intent and advanced on Coalition forces. This is the second the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone in less than a month. > > The coalition forces were manning an established combat outpost to the northeast of At Tanf where they are training and advising partner ground forces in the fight against ISIS. This is the same location where another pro-regime UAV dropped munitions near Coalition forces before it was shot down on June 8. > > The F-15E intercepted the armed UAV after it was observed advancing on the coalition position. The armed UAV was shot down when it continued to advance on the coalition’s position without diverting its course. Or perhaps the Air Force didn’t want the Navy to hog all the glory. Anyways, we’re apparently shooting down ‘all the things’ these days. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/45 "2017-06-20T15:51:27Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Apparently the Iranians wanted in on the party too: > > [US shoots down Iranian drone in Syria](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/06/20/breaking-us-shoots-down-iranian-drone-in-syria.html) > > Or perhaps the Air Force didn’t want the Navy to hog all the glory. > > Anyways, we’re apparently shooting down ‘all the things’ these days. We actually shot down one a month or so ago, so this isn’t anything new. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/46 "2017-06-20T15:51:49Z")
These deconfliction areas seem to be evolving into no-fly zones by another name. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/47 "2017-06-20T15:55:21Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Well, no one has declared war on anyone. Doesn’t negate the fact that fighting is taking place and that the US has, for years now, participated in that fighting. The biggest difference is that no one even knows how many sides there are or how many we are fighting with or against. So, yeah, that might “escalate”. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/48 "2017-06-20T16:00:44Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > These deconfliction areas seem to be evolving into no-fly zones by another name. I don’t think we had an issue with them flying about…it’s when they drop bombs that we kind of get tense. Especially when we make the effort to wave them off and they ignore the warning. [QUOTE=John Mace] The biggest difference is that no one even knows how many sides there are or how many we are fighting with or against. So, yeah, that might “escalate”. [/QUOTE] This situation is rife for miscommunications, miscalculation and missile-aneous mischance of malicious mayhem. It’s a complete cluster fuck where the leaders of 3 of the main players are all idiots who don’t know about the whole playing with fire thingy and also want to measure dick size and see who has a lower IQ than their golf average… ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/49 "2017-06-20T16:06:14Z")
Yes, don’t forget that the so-called “moderate rebels” aren’t actually a group, that just means “Any one of dozens group except ISIS”. These groups are the ones Assad and the Russians are fighting, they might eventually decide it’s time to try to fight ISIS someday, but that’s last on the list. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/50 "2017-06-20T16:07:58Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I don’t think we had an issue with them flying about…it’s when they drop bombs that we kind of get tense. Especially when we make the effort to wave them off and they ignore the warning. Unfortunately, their purpose for ‘flying about’ is primarily to drop bombs. And we don’t mind if they drop their bombs on ISIS. We get mad when they drop them on ‘our guys’. This morning’s shoot-down of the Iranian drone seems different than the previous one, and different from the Su-22 we shot down yesterday: my understanding is that in previous cases, the aircraft we ultimately destroyed had actually dropped bombs. In this case, it sounds like it was a bit more pre-emptive. In other words, this morning’s drone hadn’t actually had a chance to drop bombs yet when we shot it down. > [@](#): > > … it was observed advancing on the coalition position. The armed UAV was shot down when it continued to advance on the coalition’s position without diverting its course. That’s closer to ‘them flying about’ than previous shoot-downs. Still not a blanket prohibition like a no-fly zone, but closer to that than we were yesterday, it seems. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/51 "2017-06-20T16:12:41Z")
[QUOTE=HurricaneDitka] Unfortunately, their purpose for ‘flying about’ is primarily to drop bombs. And we don’t mind if they drop their bombs on ISIS. We get mad when they drop them on ‘our guys’. This morning’s shoot-down of the Iranian drone seems different than the previous one, and different from the Su-22 we shot down yesterday: my understanding is that in previous cases, the aircraft we ultimately destroyed had actually dropped bombs. In this case, it sounds like it was a bit more pre-emptive. In other words, this morning’s drone hadn’t actually had a chance to drop bombs yet when we shot it down. [/QUOTE] Well, of course, we get mad when they drop bombs on ‘our’ guys…especially this Su-22, which seems to have been dropping bombs near our actual guys (special forces observers). And of course, we don’t mind if they dropped bombs on ISIS, though they rarely do that, despite posters on this board thinking ISIS recent downward trend is due to the heroic efforts of Putin et al. As for the one today that might be a ROE change in the new heightened environment (Putin apparently said something about US and coalition aircraft now being ‘targets’), or might just be routine wrt the last one we shot down (which was also armed but I don’t think had fired yet). ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/52 "2017-06-20T16:23:16Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Well, of course, we get mad when they drop bombs on ‘our’ guys…especially this Su-22, which seems to have been dropping bombs near our actual guys (special forces observers). I was previously unaware of this bit about Americans being on the ground and endangered by the Su-22. That’s interesting, and better-explains the forceful response. > [@XT](#): > > … the last one we shot down (which was also armed but I don’t think had fired yet). The article I linked to said: > [@](#): > > … another pro-regime UAV dropped munitions near Coalition forces before it was shot down on June 8. It’s possible they’re wrong about the ‘dropped munitions’ part, but I have no reason to disbelieve them at present. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/53 "2017-06-20T17:08:15Z")
“Our guys” means non-ISIS rebels that we’re supporting. Whether or not there were American “advisers” mixed in is unclear. But we’re not claiming the Syrian jet was bombing American troops, we’re claiming they were bombing Syrian rebels that are our clients. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/54 "2017-06-20T17:14:31Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > “Our guys” means non-ISIS rebels that we’re supporting. Whether or not there were American “advisers” mixed in is unclear. But we’re not claiming the Syrian jet was bombing American troops, we’re claiming they were bombing Syrian rebels that are our clients. That was my understanding too. XT seemed to have different information. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/55 "2017-06-20T17:20:52Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > These groups are the ones Assad and the Russians are fighting, they might eventually decide it’s time to try to fight ISIS someday, but that’s last on the list. I’m starting to wonder…Is the fact that Assad and the Russians are and have been fighting ISIS somehow not reported in the US? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/56 "2017-06-20T17:54:01Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > That was my understanding too. XT seemed to have different information. No, not really. I was talking to some guys who (ex-military) who were talking about what would trigger a ROE allowing for a shoot down of a Syrian aircraft. They were reading between the lines in the official statements. [QUOTE=Lemur866] “Our guys” means non-ISIS rebels that we’re supporting. Whether or not there were American “advisers” mixed in is unclear. But we’re not claiming the Syrian jet was bombing American troops, we’re claiming they were bombing Syrian rebels that are our clients. [/QUOTE] Generally, we don’t up the stakes by shooting down an actual manned aircraft for less than a direct threat to our own personnel. However, perhaps that’s changed. Officially we’ve been pretty vague on who all was threatened. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/57 "2017-06-20T17:55:51Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > I’m starting to wonder…Is the fact that Assad and the Russians are and have been fighting ISIS somehow not reported in the US? We just don’t get the Russian propaganda so much here, so we don’t know how heroically the Russian and Syrian militaries has been engaging fully the dread forces of ISIS. We generally hear about the majority of their strikes against helpless Syrian civilians or against other rebel forces. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/58 "2017-06-20T18:04:26Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > I’m starting to wonder…Is the fact that Assad and the Russians are and have been fighting ISIS somehow not reported in the US? The USA political class - and it seems the US corporate media - presents a pretty unique narrative about Russia; for Europe, Russia is a good trading partner. It’s not an ally but it’s not an enemy. London is brim full of thousands of Russian mill/billionaires who moved here over the last decade, they are very much part of the central London culture. Their kids go to school, etc, etc. I guess Cuba might be a parallel - the most interesting thing about Cuba for most Europeans is it’s a great holiday destination and the people are very warm. That’s about it - no one is fighting the last century’s cold war, politics is no issue at all. US policy on Cuba harks back to the 1950? Good luck with that. ETA: maybe this has already been linked to about Russia fighting ISIS: [Russia claims it has killed two more Isis commanders in Syria air strikes | The Independent | The Independent](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-syria-leader-killed-russia-claims-air-strikes-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-al-masri-al-beljiki-deir-a7795311.html) ---
**Author:** ![snoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@snoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snoe)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/59 "2017-06-20T18:06:06Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > [Russia says it will attack US planes bombing the Syrian military?](http://www.newsweek.com/russia-attack-us-plane-bombing-syria-military-627241) > > Is Putin bluffing? Would Trump respond in like manner if he isn’t? This shit is making me nervous. Could all this get out of hand? Colin Kahl, on Twitter (sorry), lays out a case that this could easily get out of hand – first post in thread here: [x.com](https://twitter.com/colinkahl/status/876841243099136000) ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/60 "2017-06-20T18:11:09Z")
Fwiw,the whole consensus on Syria - to which the US was not invited - is to deal with ISIS first. I guess the US makes contributions for its own reasons it’s not really in the game. Last time I paid any attention the US had even lost Turkey to the Russian strategy, and that’s a NATO Partner FFS. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389.md?page=4)