# Is the Syrian situation likely to escalate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 19, 2017, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389 "2017-06-19T18:37:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/81 "2017-06-20T21:42:41Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > … plus that they are making an inroad towards At Tanf, where the US has established a base inside Syrian territory(!) I remember seeing an article a while back that we built five air bases in Syria. Seemed like an odd choice. I guess we were planning on them never regaining effective control of that lost territory again. ETA: and if we bomb / shoot them anytime they approach it, I guess maybe we’ll be right. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/82 "2017-06-20T21:46:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > ETA: and if we bomb / shoot them anytime they approach it, I guess maybe we’ll be right. Which is wat the US is actually doing. They have already bombed Syrian army troops twice and deployed heavy rocket artillery. The shooting down of the Syrian jet is a deliberate escalation in order to stop the advance. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/83 "2017-06-20T21:49:38Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > So the “real” Syrian government has every right to defend Syria by shooting Russian planes down. The real Syrian government is the one still recognised as such by the UN. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/84 "2017-06-20T21:51:19Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > Which is wat the US is actually doing. > They have already bombed Syrian army troops twice and deployed heavy rocket artillery. > The shooting down of the Syrian jet is a deliberate escalation in order to stop the advance. Interesting. Do you think we intend to help the Kurds establish a de-facto independent state in what-used-to-be-Syria? Are the guys we’re helping at At Tanf Kurds or some other … ethnicity(?)? ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/85 "2017-06-20T21:57:13Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Interesting. Do you think we intend to help the Kurds establish a de-facto independent state in what-used-to-be-Syria? Are the guys we’re helping at At Tanf Kurds or some other … ethnicity(?)? I hope the Kurds get their state. If I were Assad I would let the Kurds slide and indeed the Syrian army has made no attempt to ‘tresspass’ on terrain conquered by the Kurds. They even sent troops to protect them from the Turkish proxy forces that are attacking them. The rebels in the south are Syrians, heavily supported with US materiel. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/86 "2017-06-20T22:06:08Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > I hope the Kurds get their state. If I were Assad I would let the Kurds slide and indeed the Syrian army has made no attempt to ‘tresspass’ on terrain conquered by the Kurds. They even sent troops to protect them from the Turkish proxy forces that are attacking them. > > The rebels in the south are Syrians, heavily supported with US materiel. Are you aware of any estimates on the relative sizes of the forces of each faction? Are we backing the wrong horse in this race? It sounds like they’re losing, or at least not winning, which, I would think, would be pretty hard to screw up with USAF air support, MLRS at your beck and call, and Special Forces units embedded with you. ETA: and if you don’t mind me asking: How do you know so much about this? Are you _in_ Syria? Of Syrian descent? An interested observer? ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/87 "2017-06-20T22:23:44Z")
Just an interested observer. This war is a huge and dangerous chess game that could indeed escalate into war with Russia. It pays to follow it closely. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/88 "2017-06-20T22:28:16Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Interesting. Do you think we intend to help the Kurds establish a de-facto independent state in what-used-to-be-Syria? Are the guys we’re helping at At Tanf Kurds or some other … ethnicity(?)? I’ve worked with Kurds - refugees who travelled several years ago. The way one told it he was a successful sniper. It’s difficult to convey the loathing they have for the USA. They were mostly Peshmerga, back it the day when alliances were more straight forward. The root of the hatred of the USA is how policy switched to support one group then another, leaving the group/s now not supported utterly exposed; without warning, without explanation, and after so much sacrifice. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/89 "2017-06-20T22:29:49Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > Just an interested observer. > > This war is a huge and dangerous chess game that could indeed escalate into war with Russia. It pays to follow it closely. No, no, not a chess game. Read up thread, we’re told it’s about Putin buffing, or smething. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/90 "2017-06-20T22:31:50Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > Look again at the maps **yellow sausage bandit** provided. > > The Syrian government have nearly re-conquered the whole of east Aleppo province from ISIS. > They still have momentum going south and east in the direction of Deir-Ezzor. > > A very large part between Damascus and Palmyra has been secured, again from ISIS. They don’t want a repeat of ISIS retaking Palmyra. > > They have also cut off the US proxy forces along the Jordanian border, that were trying to gain control of the Iraqi borderline and maybe go for Deir-Ezzor themselves. > This is what has stung the US, plus that they are making an inroad towards At Tanf, where the US has established a base inside Syrian territory(!) No one is arguing that Assad isn’t going after Da-esh in areas that are strategically important to him. But he doesn’t have a strategy to wipe them out like he is trying to wipe out the Syrian rebels that are not aligned with Da-esh. He likes a certain amount of Da-esh to be out there so he can claim that if he goes, Da-esh will take over. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/91 "2017-06-20T22:34:02Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > The real Syrian government is the one still recognised as such by the UN. And when it’s overthrown, the government that replaces it will also be recognized as such by the UN. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/92 "2017-06-20T22:47:48Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > It’s difficult to convey the loathing they have for the USA. Everything I’ve read and heard is that the Kurds are mostly pro-American. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/93 "2017-06-20T22:53:46Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Everything I’ve read and heard is that the Kurds are mostly pro-American. Unfortunately, in that region of the world (well, in all regions, really, but that one especially) it is very dangerous and in the long run counterproductive to be an American ally. US is very fickle. As up\_the\_junction’s post suggests. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/94 "2017-06-20T23:01:06Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Everything I’ve read and heard is that the Kurds are mostly pro-American. Rah! Rah! ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/95 "2017-06-20T23:10:29Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > No one is arguing that Assad isn’t going after Da-esh in areas that are strategically important to him. But he doesn’t have a strategy to wipe them out like he is trying to wipe out the Syrian rebels that are not aligned with Da-esh. He likes a certain amount of Da-esh to be out there so he can claim that if he goes, Da-esh will take over. Yes, exactly. Basically, yellow sausage bandit’s maps have no context. You have to look at who controls the areas Assad’s forces are going against as well as the strategic value. It’s pretty clear that, aside from several ground offensives geared more towards capturing strategic roads or cities, Russian and Syrian air forces have concentrated mainly on the various rebel factions, steering mainly clear of ISIS concentrations unless they are in ground deemed vital or strategic to Assad’s wider plans. If he (and the Russians) REALLY wanted to go after ISIS then they would be striking east, not north, and you’d see the pattern of air operations shift accordingly. I’m not in a position to grab sites tonight, but there are tons of maps that show the strategic give and take of ground in Syria over time, as well as provide context of who is where and why. [QUOTE=up\_the\_junction] Rah! Rah! [/QUOTE] As opposed to your unsubstantiated out of your ass pseudo-anecdote that is true because America Bad™, right? 😛 [QUOTE=Latro] Just an interested observer. This war is a huge and dangerous chess game that could indeed escalate into war with Russia. It pays to follow it closely. [/QUOTE] And your observations really tell you that Syria and Russia are concentrating on ISIS and not hitting everyone else? I mean…really? What do you base this observation on? ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/96 "2017-06-20T23:12:36Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > No one is arguing that Assad isn’t going after Da-esh in areas that are strategically important to him. Yes there are, the quote is right there in my post > [@](#): > > But he doesn’t have a strategy to wipe them out like he is trying to wipe out the Syrian rebels that are not aligned with Da-esh. He likes a certain amount of Da-esh to be out there so he can claim that if he goes, Da-esh will take over. I didn’t know you had a private meeting with Assad. If he told you this, it must be true. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/97 "2017-06-20T23:16:08Z")
> [@XT](#): > > And your observations really tell you that Syria and Russia are concentrating on ISIS and not hitting everyone else? I mean…really? What do you base this observation on? How does it actually feel to be dishonest XT? Genuinely curious. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/98 "2017-06-20T23:36:14Z")
> [@XT](#): > > As opposed to your unsubstantiated out of your ass pseudo-anecdote that is true because America Bad™, right? 😛 You don’t just wallop in your ignorance, you also jump up and down and wave about it. > [@](#): > > The division of the Kurds among several nations, disunity and conflicts between the Kurds themselves, the hostile non-liberal nationalist character of the states they reside in and international powers’ interests in maintaining regional stability are all contributing factors to this fragmentation. The author demonstrates that US foreign policy towards the Kurds is not mono-lithic, varying in time and space. US policy towards the various Kurdish movements is different due to the non-state nature of the Kurdish issue and lack of a united US policy towards regional states. Thus, she explains it is impossible to describe a general US policy towards the Kurds [http://www.insightturkey.com/the-kurds-and-us-foreign-policy-international-relations-in-the-middle-east-since-1945/book-reviews/70](http://www.insightturkey.com/the-kurds-and-us-foreign-policy-international-relations-in-the-middle-east-since-1945/book-reviews/70) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/99 "2017-06-20T23:40:50Z")
I don’t think anyone would contest that “US foreign policy towards the Kurds is not mono-lithic”. I certainly wouldn’t. Earlier you said this: > [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > It’s difficult to convey the loathing they have for the USA. Could we _try_ to convey it though? Do you believe “loathing” is an accurate descriptor for, as an example, the average Kurd’s attitude towards the US? A tiny minority? The vast majority? ETA: would you say they loathe us more or less than, again as an example, the residents of Anbar province? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389/100 "2017-06-20T23:43:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Could we try to convey it though? Maybe one could compare it to the loathing the Bay of Pigs Cuban emigree fighters felt for the US as they were dying on the beach? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-syrian-situation-likely-to-escalate/789389.md?page=6)