# Is the U.S. economy going to tank this winter? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 18, 2004, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397 "2004-11-18T01:59:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/21 "2004-11-19T02:58:05Z")
Economists trying to get attention always try to make the situation sound as bad as possible, and besides many of them instinctively pick numbers on the worse end of the scale rather than the better just so it can’t be said after the fact that they didn’t predict a disaster. The trade imbalance and the fact that interest rates are artifically low is a problem. Whether it will blow into a “crisis”, well, we don’t know that right now. I’m certain that Asian currencies must eventually rise against the dollar, that some industry in China must shut down because it won’t be profitable to make some goods over there and sell them here. But what percentage of the total will that be? Probably not all, and I would say probably not even half will be eliminated. One other consideration on the interest rate thing. After the '92 election many conservatives fumed at Greenspan because they thought his rate increases had cost the original George Bush the election. I suspect that a desire to avoid repeating that experience led him to push only microscopic rate increases in the runup to this election. But hey, election’s over. He can go hog wild now. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/22 "2004-11-19T03:36:04Z")
Well, the thing of it is, when I said this stuff in 2000, I got looks from people that really made me think _I_ must be the crazy one. Now, everyone and his brother is saying it. To quote Joe Granville, “If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.” The trade on the dollar collapsing is just way too obvious at this point. You could probably fire a cannon at a building supposedly full of dollar bulls and hit no one. Longer term, a dollar collapse is inevitable: I’ve posted elsewhere that I think $5000 gold is a lock, and I really think it is. Just not tomorrow, or anytime soon. There’s a few obstacles in the way: China is not going to just up and float the yuan tomorrow; China, Japan, India, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore aren’t all going to decide to convert their reserves from dollars to euros and yen all at once any time soon; private international investors are still going to find US equities attractive, from time to time. And with Bush re-elected, Saudi Arabia is going to do whatever it takes to make sure oil continues to be priced in dollar terms. And as I posted before, whether deliberately abetted by the Fed or not, there’s a _de facto_ **Operation Twist** going on. That was a deliberate effort in 1961 to raise short-term rates while lowering long-term ones, so that international investors would find US bonds to be a good deal, since their prices rise as their yield falls. The 10 year has actually risen in price, and fallen in terms of yield, since the Fed began raising rates, so the same dynamic is in operation today. Anyone who thinks that Greenspan, a goldbug with an encyclopedic knowledge of financial history, is going to allow the dollar to collapse is simply underestimating the man. When he goes, it will be time to begin the Dollar Death Watch. For now, we could see a spike down in the dollar and an accompanying upward spike in euros and gold, but in gold terms I would be very surprised if we went past $500 per ounce. 79 on the yen is the low we got to back in the early Nineties. We could see that again too. Once again, I’d be very surprised if it went lower than that in this cycle. Then again, I could be all wet. Wouldn’t be the first time, Lord knows. ---
**Author:** ![Chairman\_Pow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/838e76/32.png) [@Chairman\_Pow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chairman_Pow)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/23 "2004-11-19T03:41:22Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > **Gorsnak** has it right. This is not even controversial. Take a look at this [cite](http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=35726) from [www.prudentbear.com](http://www.prudentbear.com). And [this](http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=29434). And [this](http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=International+Perspective&content_idx=35150). > And if you don’t like this site, a book called [Japan’s Policy Trap](http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/081570223X/qid=1100828117/sr=8-2/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i2_xgl14/104-2428036-3819155?v=glance&s=books&n=507846) came out about a year ago that details how Japan seeks to keep the dollar high. It was actually China that I was wondering about. I hadn’t thought about the Japan angle that way before. Interesting. The discussion about a weaker dollar not too long ago makes this conflict seem even more absurd. ---
**Author:** ![AmericanMaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@AmericanMaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AmericanMaid)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/24 "2004-11-19T16:51:02Z")
Even Greenspan’s worried: [http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/19/news/economy/fed\_greenspan/index.htm?cnn=yes](http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/19/news/economy/fed_greenspan/index.htm?cnn=yes) ---
**Author:** ![Khadaji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/9e8a1a/32.png) [@Khadaji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Khadaji)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/25 "2004-11-19T17:11:37Z")
I have two co-workers who have been predicting this since I started work - 3 years ago. The best answer that I can give is: No one, ever really knows. But I have been betting against them for 3 years and continue to win that bet every Christmas. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/26 "2004-11-19T17:26:43Z")
Hmph. That’s mighty unusual. I mean, for him to say this in public. Mighty unusual. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/27 "2004-11-19T18:05:39Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > …there is a prediction [that the USA] will be a net importer of food as early as possibly 2005… :eek: _That_’s disturbing. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/28 "2004-11-19T23:43:55Z")
Article in yesterday’s WSJ: “Chinese Are Losing Dollar Faith/Selling of Greenbacks for Yuan Creates Problems for Beijin.” And this is a currency (yuan and renminbi are the same thing) that is **pegged** to the dollar. And ordinary Chinese are still dumping bucks below the official rate. Egad. Also, yen just above 102 right now… Will there be a chaotic collapse? Well, the US and those governments are going to fight it like hell, and they wield a lot of power to stop it. But you could really start to hear the gears grinding. I can’t imagine the yen not sinking into the mid to low 90s within the next 6 months, and the 80s wouldn’t surprise me at all. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2004, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/29 "2004-11-19T23:47:03Z")
> [@Sunspace](#): > > :eek: _That_’s disturbing. Of course, that’s in dollar terms, not calories. The US is still, of course, calorie self-sufficient. From what I read in the WSJ, a lot of what’s causing the monthly ag-trade deficits is the importation of highly value-added goods: wines, cheeses, olives, etc. But this brings us back to the greatest debt-based consumer binge in world history. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2004, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/30 "2004-11-20T00:13:01Z")
> [@Orbifold](#): > > If the history is short, wouldn’t that make it a poor indicator of future performance? Since the Euro succeded to the ECU, with an identical value, you could take into account the ECU/Dollar exchange rates during the last thirty years. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2004, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/31 "2004-11-21T22:41:26Z")
> [@pantom](#): > > Hmph. That’s mighty unusual. I mean, for him to say this in public. > Mighty unusual. You mean, Greenspan? Greenspan says the best way to deal with the problem is to reduce the federal budget deficit. But what are the odds of that? We certainly can’t expect Bush to reverse his tax cuts in the next four years, and with the war and all, what is there in the budget that could plausibly be cut? ---
**Author:** ![Metacom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@Metacom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Metacom)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2004, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/32 "2004-11-21T23:31:46Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > We certainly can’t expect Bush to reverse his tax cuts in the next four years, and with the war and all, what is there in the budget that could plausibly be cut? Well, if we eliminated the Department of Labor ($60 billion a year), the Department of Agriculture (~$100b), the Department of the Interior (~$31b), the Department of Energy (~$18b), the Department of Transportation (~$54b), the Department of Health and Human Ser… Wait a minute, can’t get rid of _all_ HHS 'cause the seniors gotta have Medicare and Medicaid. We’ll get rid of all the other HHS bits, though (~$90b). There’s $353 billion right there, wasted on beauracracies that the market could easily handle on it’s own. That oughta be enough for the Iranian War. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2004, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/33 "2004-11-21T23:59:22Z")
> [@Metacom](#): > > Well, if we eliminated the Department of Labor ($60 billion a year), the Department of Agriculture (~$100b), the Department of the Interior (~$31b), the Department of Energy (~$18b), the Department of Transportation (~$54b), the Department of Health and Human Ser… Wait a minute, can’t get rid of _all_ HHS 'cause the seniors gotta have Medicare and Medicaid. We’ll get rid of all the other HHS bits, though (~$90b). > > There’s $353 billion right there, wasted on beauracracies that the market could easily handle on it’s own. That oughta be enough for the Iranian War. 😉 One is pleased to jest, no doubt? From [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal\_Government\_of\_the\_United\_States:](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Government_of_the_United_States:) > [@](#): > > **Department of Agriculture** > > The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) supports agricultural production to ensure fair prices and stable markets for producers and consumers, works to improve and maintain farm income, and helps to develop and expand markets abroad for agricultural products. The department attempts to curb poverty, hunger, and malnutrition by issuing food stamps to the poor; by sponsoring educational programs on nutrition; and by administering other food assistance programs, primarily for children, expectant mothers, and the elderly. It maintains production capacity by helping landowners protect the soil, water, forests, and other natural resources. > > USDA administers rural development, credit, and conservation programs that are designed to implement national growth policies, and it conducts scientific and technological research in all areas of agriculture. Through its inspection and grading services, USDA ensures standards of quality in food offered for sale. The department’s Agricultural Research Service works to develop solutions to agricultural problems of high national priority, and it administers the National Agricultural Library to disseminate information to a wide cross-section of users, from research scientists to the general public. > > The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) serves as an export promotion and service agency for U.S. agriculture, employing specialists abroad who make surveys of foreign agriculture for U.S. farm and business interests. The U.S. Forest Service, also part of the department, administers an extensive network of national forests and wilderness areas. > > The US Forest Service manages vast areas of forest lands in the United States, as a ‘multi-use’ system. This means that it strives to balance between the various demands such as logging companies, recreational users, nature lovers, hikers, campers, conservationists, offroad drivers, and so forth and so on. This is in contrast to the Park Service, at Interior, which emphasizes conservation. > > \ > > **Department of Energy** > > Growing concern with the nation’s energy problems in the 1970s prompted Congress to create the United States Department of Energy (DOE). The department took over the functions of several government agencies already engaged in the energy field. Staff offices within DOE are responsible for the research, development, and demonstration of energy technology; energy conservation; civilian and military use of nuclear energy; regulation of energy production and use; pricing and allocation of oil; and a central energy data collection and analysis program. > > The Department of Energy protects the nation’s environment by setting standards to minimize the harmful effects of energy production. For example, DOE conducts environmental and health related research, such as studies of energy-related pollutants and their effects on biological systems. > > **Department of Health and Human Services** > > The United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which oversees some 300 programs, probably directly touches the lives of more Americans than any other federal agency. Its largest component, the Health Care Financing Administration, administers the Medicare and Medicaid programs, which provide health care coverage to about one in every five Americans. Medicare provides health insurance for 30 million elderly and disabled Americans. Medicaid, a joint federal-state program, provides health coverage for 31 million low-income persons, including 15 million children. > > HHS also administers the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the world’s premier medical research organization, supporting some 30,000 research projects in diseases like cancer, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, arthritis, heart ailments, and AIDS. Other HHS agencies ensure the safety and effectiveness of the nation’s food supply and drugs; work to prevent outbreaks of communicable diseases; provide health services to the nation’s American Indian and Alaska Native populations; and help to improve the quality and availability of substance abuse prevention, addiction treatment, and mental health services. > > \ > > **Department of Labor** > > The United States Department of Labor promotes the welfare of wage earners in the United States, helps improve working conditions, and fosters good relations between labor and management. It administers federal labor laws through such agencies as the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, the Employment Standards Administration, and the Mine Safety and Health Administration. These laws guarantee workers’ rights to safe and healthy working conditions, hourly wages and overtime pay, freedom from employment discrimination, unemployment insurance, and workers’ compensation for on-the-job injury. The Department also protects workers’ pension rights, sponsors job training programs, and helps workers find jobs. Its Bureau of Labor Statistics monitors and reports changes in employment, prices, and other national economic measurements. For job seekers, the department makes special efforts to help older workers, youths, minorities, women, and the disabled. > > \ > > **Department of Transportation** > > The United States Department of Transportation (DOT) establishes the nation’s overall transportation policy through 10 operating units that encompass highway planning, development, and construction; urban mass transit; railroads; civilian aviation; and the safety of waterways, ports, highways, and oil and gas pipelines. > > For example, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) operates a network of airport towers, air traffic control centers, and flight service stations across the country; the Federal Highway Administration provides financial assistance to the states to improve the interstate highway system, urban and rural roads, and bridges; the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration establishes safety performance standards for motor vehicles and motor vehicle equipment; and the Maritime Administration operates the U.S. merchant marine fleet. None of these are functions most of the American people would be willing do without, and I don’t see how “the market” could adequately handle any of them. ---
**Author:** ![Metacom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@Metacom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Metacom)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2004, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/34 "2004-11-22T00:17:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > One is pleased to jest, no doubt? Yes, that’s why there was a “;)” immediately after my comment. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > None of these are functions most of the American people would be willing do without, and I don’t see how “the market” could adequately handle any of them. Here’s where it gets debateable. There’s an awful lot in that wikipedia glurge you quoted that the American public _could_ do without (do we really need to spend money to foster good relationships between employees and employers?). There’s even more that the public could do without if, for example, “the Department of Labor is a left-wing anti-business waste of money” becomes a talking point and repeated ad naseum by Limbaugh, et al. I picked those organizations not because I believe they should be cut but because there are [plenty of influential people on the right who think they should be.](http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/handbook108.html) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2004, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/35 "2004-11-22T02:11:21Z")
> [@Metacom](#): > > I picked those organizations not because I believe they should be cut but because there are [plenty of influential people on the right who think they should be.](http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/handbook108.html) But they won’t be. The Cato Institute is Libertarian – a very different branch of conservatism than George Bush’s. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2004, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/36 "2004-11-22T02:13:23Z")
**Brain Glutton** , the point is that Greenspan is not supposed to say a word about this sort of thing in public. That he did so indicates both major concern on his part with what’s happening, and possibly major dissent with Administration policy. I quote from this Saturday’s _Financial Times_ (subscription only area, sorry): > [@](#): > > There was disagreement among analysts as to how significant the remarks were. > “They are only a shade different to what he’s said before, but with Greenspan, the shades are important,” said Lara Rhame, currencies strategist at CSFB in New York. **“The truly amazing fact is that he’s talking about it at all - he’s not a dollar spokesman.” > US currency policy is managed by the Treasury, not the Fed.** > “This fits the Fed’s growing public concern over the current account and continues to clash with the Treasury’s relaxed stance,” said Sean Callow, strategist at IDEAglobal. ---
**Author:** ![Metacom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@Metacom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Metacom)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2004, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/37 "2004-11-22T03:33:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But they won’t be. The Cato Institute is Libertarian – a very different branch of conservatism than George Bush’s. True, but they still have influence in the Republican party. I’d say they’re “libertarian” as opposed to “Libertarian.” I don’t think Bush is going to close _all_ of them, or even close any of them. The point was, there _is_ a good chunk of money being doled out to those agencies–some of their programs we can all agree are pork that should be cut, others are open to ideological debate. But there _is_ a potential for stuff to be trimmed there. The question is “Is there enough fat there to close the deficit?” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2004, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/38 "2004-12-29T04:09:13Z")
Update – essentially a followup to the entry quoted in the OP – from Kunstler’s “Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle,” [http://www.kunstler.com/mags\_diary12.html:](http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary12.html:) > [@](#): > > December 6, 2004 > > ``` > The Christmas shopping frenzy is upon us and I wonder if this is going to be the very last blowout of the the credit card era. If it's true that American families are virtually maxed out on their credit card debt, and they still go on a spree to buy Christmas presents, then they will hit a very hard wall in early 2005 when those first bills roll in. Because something is happening in the financial markets, Mr. Jones. > > The currency markets have entered a supernatural realm of instability. The dollar can't continue to hemorrhage value without interest rates going up. Who would continue to hold, not to mention buy, US dollar denominated securities with the dollar losing two cents a week against the Euro and the British Pound? While it's true that nobody -- namely, China, Japan, Europe -- wants to see the US economy tank, neither do they want to write off billions in order to help American dog groomers and NASCAR marketing executives enjoy an artificially high standard of living. Only significantly higher interest rates will induce foreingers to hold onto US Treasuries. > > The US government and the Federal Reserve have played a dangerous game of jiggering deficits and ridiculously low interest rates in order to keep the public buying stuff. Retail trade (i.e. shopping) is now roughly 70 percent of the US economy, but it is not an activity that produces anything of value. The productive part of the economy has either been allowed to rot away, or has been sent to other lands. The deficit-and-interest-rate jiggering game managed to levitate a non-productive economy for a few years. But with the dollar now in free-fall, the runaway train of "consumerism" fueled by incredibly easy credit is poised to go off the rails. > > Credit, after all is money and vice versa. The dollar only represents what a consensus thinks it's worth. And if that consensus begins to think that the dollar represents X-million families of overfed slobs driving endlessly around munching on Cheez Doodles and slurping iced beverages between stops at the WalMart and the Home Depot to wield Discover cards buying things made by Chinese factory slaves who can't drive around endlessly listening to Snoop Dog while enjoying ice cold beverages -- well, they might decide that America is not such a good investment. > > Investment, after all, is a judgment about future prospects. What are the prospects of a nation that spends way more than it produces, has hocked itself to the eyeballs, and has to pay around two billion a month premium for military security in the Middle East in order to keep those overfed, over-extended "consumers" gassed up for easy motoring between the WalMart and the Home Depot in the suburban gloamings. > > So here's how I call it. Interest rates shoot way up in the first half of 2005. A lot of people sitting on multiple thousands in credit card debt go bust. A lot of mortgage holders find themselves living in McHouses they can't keep paying for. End of housing bubble. Beginning of fire sale of US residential real estate (and other assets, including stock, SUVs, and signed limited edition Thomas Kinkade prints). Cratering of "consumer" demand. Impressive job loss. Ultimately, deflationary depression. > > Everybody will blame George W. > > All this and Peak Oil, too. > > ``` ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2004, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/39 "2004-12-29T04:20:20Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > ☹ :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2004, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397/40 "2004-12-29T05:55:11Z")
> [@Brutus](#): > > :rolleyes: :dubious: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-u-s-economy-going-to-tank-this-winter/275397.md?page=3)