They’ll be recycled. The infrastructure isn’t in place yet, but it’s being built.
Reuse and recycle.
Well-maintained batteries last a long time. Automotive conditions are really quite gentle, and Teslas tend to have only about 10% capacity degradation even after over 150k miles of use (I expect that other recent makes are similar).
If the rest of the car needs to be replaced, the battery packs can be reused in fixed storage where the capacity degradation doesn’t matter so much. They’re useful for both grid and household storage.
If the batteries have degraded so much as to be useless to anyone, they can still be recycled. There’s work to be done here: the recycling programs aren’t as good as they should be. But you’ve got a solid lump of valuable metals just waiting to be reprocessed. It’s only a matter of time before we have very high recycling rates here. Lead-acid batteries have a 99% recycling rate, and while lithium batteries are more complicated, they’re also more valuable.
Another option that is being used (besides the recycling answer you already got) is to repurpose them for a different use. Car batteries, for instance, are being used for energy storage systems…basically, they are repurposed and reused as they can still be effective in this role.
In fact, that aluminum air battery I briefly mentioned can be recycled, and in fact that’s what you do. You’d go in every 1000 miles (or more) and basically have the battery changed out. The old ones would be recycled, and we are talking most of the battery and components, and then put back into the system to be redeployed. You’d need some sort of automated switching system, but it’s actually been mocked up and it works fine. Transport and storage would probably be the issues (basically, logistics), but it would work…and the change takes about 5 minutes, so it’s a bit like filling your car with gas from that perspective.
Answering the OP’s title:
Is the upcoming domination of the electric car going to be a good thing?
No, and that’s independent of whether it’s making a dent in combating climate change.
Anything that continues to support a car-centric culture is inherently not a good thing.
Though not without problems I think it will be a good thing on balance.
Electric vehicles combined with clean renewables and specifically nuclear power would go a long way to limiting future CO2 emissions. Not least because switching to electric vehicles places millions of green energy storage devices in homes around the world. For a country like the UK which is currently generating half its energy through renewables (and increasing) having the means to store excess and smooth out the demand curve is very important.
Giving the whole of the world access to clean energy sources and means of personal transportation seems like a net good and if the two are mutually supportive then so much the better.
Most of the debate is informed from a first world perspective but I think there will be a lot positives in less developed parts of the world.
The batteries in EVs are substantial and this technology will trickle down to form the storage for micro-grids in parts of the world where the grid is unreliable or non-existent.
I have been to offices in cities in less developed countries where the grid goes down for hours at a time. They by with laptops and LED lights. Some have a bank of batteries to create a UPS. Larger buildings have diesel generators that are expensive to run. It is common for the lights to go off, then hear numerous generators start up….if you can afford to pay for the fuel.
The coming of mass market EVs will change all that because it will drive battery tech. Large capacity batteries will become cheaper and can be charged by solar panels or the grid, when it it is working.
I guess these kind of innovations are a fringe interest to off-grinders in the developed economies. But in large parts of the world they will improve the quality of life immensely. Fridges will become reliable, water pumps, lights for kids to study by.
The EV is just the most prominent application for battery tech. Once they become cheap enough they will fill in the great many holes in electricity supply that have to be endured in many countries across the world.
All this will take time and we are still at the beginning. The Big Battery was the great missing invention of the 20th century, it will be realised over the next couple of decades. EVs are just the tech that everyone sees and captures the most attention. But the technology behind their development will find many other applications and solve a lot of persistent problems.
This is a good thing.
One question, what of maintenance? My current vehicle (ICE) has a system that nags me to change the oil every six months. If I did that, over ten years I’ve consumed 100 quarts of oil and 20 oil filters. Then there is other maintenance - some engine air filters, antifreeze, a bit of brake fluid, and so on. I probably will replace the 12V battery every 5-7 years. How does that compare to an EV if you consider the EV battery to be a maintenance item?
Not really.
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For people who rent apartments it will be an amenity offered like parking spaces or cable.
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The U.S. has about 2 billion parking spaces for 250 million cars. So even if there is no charging on the street there will be charging at the workplace or the mall. And if all else fails at the electrical equivalent of the service station.
I think it is a good thing, but will have fewer benefits and longer transition times than are sometimes currently credited.
It will be particularly useful for short urban trips by car, which account for a big chunk of traffic and pollution.
It will not fully replace industrial use of vehicles, long trips or public transit. The idea people will willingly abandon their vehicles for public transit ignores its stigmata, inconvenience, capital costs, population density and feasibility.
Batteries will improve, but in the long run government subsidizing vehicle costs will prove too expensive. Some battery components require uncommon resources. Charging stations will improve and multiply but even the electric system has been shown to have limits due to weather, supply, malevolent actors and business models.
Another point in favor of electric cars is that it’s easier to change the electrical grid over to new technologies. With most alternative vehicle fuels, you have a chicken-and-egg problem with the vehicles and the fueling stations. But if you come up with a new kind of power plant (or an old kind that’s newly economical, due to tech advances or societal changes), you can just slot it into the grid without having to change anything else.
In urban areas with few off-street parking facilities you still pretty much always have street lighting and so a ready-made network of power that could be adapted pretty easily to provide roadside charging points for those that can’t string a cable from their apartment to the kerbside.
I’d expect planning permission mandates for new builds to start factoring in a requirement for charging points.
As with any major societal change, I’m sure there will be hardships.
But IMHO, it all comes down to this; which future is better?
Either:
Noisier
Less convenient
Dirtier
Or:
Quieter
More convenient
Cleaner
I don’t think battery replacement is going to happen to any significant degree. Mainly just for manufacturing defects. Again, a Tesla only sees around 10% range loss after 150,000 miles, and most long-range EVs are going to be similar. The rest of the car is getting to be pretty old at that point, so some people might want to upgrade the whole thing. But the car is still usable, and they can sell it to someone looking for a cheap car and doesn’t have the same range needs. The battery will probably go half a million miles before it becomes unusable (say, under 50% capacity).
As for general maintenance, I’ve performed exactly zero on my Model 3 for the past 3 years. At some point I’ll have to replace the 12 V battery (it still has one!), but even the brake pads will likely last the life of the car.
Ideally, not just the technology but the batteries themselves. Harvesting old EV batteries for residential battery banks is already a minor industry. As the number of retiring EVs grows, there will be a decent supply of them. They’ll still perform very well as backup power.
Well sure, but how do you get away from that, given our built environment? Mass transit doesn’t work without enough residential density to support it. Over the next 15 years, all but a small fraction of Americans will replace their cars. But all of the existing housing stock will still be there for a much longer time into the future.
The New York Times ran an article a couple of days ago (paywalled but that’s supposed to be a “gift” link available to non-subscribers) about how limitations in the electrical grid are limiting adoption of home solar energy installations and home recharging of electric cars. One family described in the article lives near Palo Alto and bought a $30,000 solar installation on their roof that they’re not able to fully use because they can’t send excess power to the grid. (Though I think they could install a battery backup system to at least store some of the power for after hours.) Another person, on Long Island this time, was recharging a Tesla at home when the load melted the line supplying the house. The point of the article is that the grid is going to require a massive amount of investment.
Many cities struggle to accommodate the number of vehicles on the road. Changing the drive chain from ICE to EV will not change this. But the air will be less polluted and the driving may become safer.
However there are other auto technologies that may improve congestion. I am seeing more and more cars run by car sharing companies parked, available for a rental with the swipe of a smartphone. Uber-type taxis and home delivery services seem to be proliferating. Cameras capturing car registrations enforce congestion zone pricing. I expect every parking space will be electronically monitored before long, allowing spaces to be booked for a duration and a charge. All conveniently deducted from your bank account.
Cars using city roads are prime candidates for taxation and its collection will be enabled by smartphones/embedded sensors and 5G communications. Lots of scope to regulate the number of vehicles on the roads so they at don’t exceed their capacity. Maybe avoid long unhealthy commutes and grid locked roads. The same innovation can make public transport far more efficient and reliable.
There is a lot of ‘smart city’ technology coming along that may reduce unnecessary traffic and make the city more liveable and make driving easier (if you can afford it!). It may not even be necessary to commute into an office given that homeworking has proved so popular.
EVs get a lot of attention, but the Covid pandemic and the lockdowns have accelerated a lot of other trends. City life is changing and we may well have reached ‘peak’ car. Car ownership may become a luxury that is difficult to justify, at least in city centres.
I suspect this will happen in European cities first, where the city streets are narrow and never designed for the weight of traffic they carry. Congestion control systems are being rolled out in many places and the anxieties about air pollution from diesel engines is accelerating the trend. EVs get a free pass for now, but I am sure that won’t last.
I personally like the idea of being able to rent a car flexibly when I need it rather than have it sit outside idle and depreciating for 95% of the time. But then I live in an inner part of a big crowded city. For those in the suburbs and places with poor public transport, it may not be so practical.
The article’s not wrong that the grid needs upgrades, especially if there’s a big push to move heating/cooking/hot water to electric, since those will be used during peak hours.
However, the overall premise of the article is a bit muddled. Electricity is already cheaper at night for most, or at least there’s an option for a time-of-use plan. And in any case, charging EVs at night is already the most convenient option, since you just plug in when you get home (and set the car to start charging when off-peak hours start).
The example of a Tesla overloading a circuit seems ridiculous to me. The highest rated home charger pulls 48 amps. That’s really not much, so if some equipment failed it was already well past its expiration date. Sure, the point is that much of the equipment is out of date, but these are going to be isolated examples. Most people don’t need the highest speed charging, either, so if they know they’re on a weak circuit they can dial things back (my garage only has a 30 amp circuit, so I charge at 24).
The home solar thing is totally different. As you note, a battery backup system would have solved the problem for them. And even without that, the panels would still produce power for day use (reducing load on the grid). Sure, maybe they expected the net metering to help offset the cost and they didn’t get that, but it didn’t make the panels useless.
what about solar batteries? Also arent the car companies making big pronouncements that they’ll be all-electric in the next 5-10 years?
Ive seen the ford commercials saying exactly that but Ive forgotten the exact year they say it will be done by
hell even the auto racing leagues are looking into all-electric car races in the same time frame
By not taking our built environment as a given.
Low residential density doesn’t work without entrenched car culture…
This doesn’t mean re-urbanification and urban densification can’t be achieved.