# Is the US doing enough to slow the spread of Covid-19? (public health) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 7, 2020, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061 "2020-03-07T19:32:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Settimo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eada6e/32.png) [@Settimo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Settimo)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/1 "2020-03-07T19:32:40Z")
Your thoughts on the steps being taken to reduce the spread of the virus in the United States? Here’s a [March 5th article](http://www.yahoo.com/news/california-man-self-quarantined-returning-173042979.html) about a man returning from China, dismayed at the lack of screening at the San Francisco airport (he said he felt safer in China). Here’s an [article](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-polarization/americans-divided-on-party-lines-over-risk-from-coronavirus-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN20T2O3) about how Americans are divided along partisan lines over the virus (yep, folks, even with something like this). The partisan dysfunction is especially concerning. ISTM there’s quite a conflict of interest with this administration in light of the upcoming elections, and a desire to downplay the economic risks. The potential mistake here is not taking strong enough steps soon enough, because of untoward sensitivity to how it looks for the leadership re the economic picture, creating a larger disease spread problem down the road. If there’s any silver lining, I suppose some optimism is warranted in light of the warmer weather potentially slowing the spread, but that’s far from certain. And here’s a [March 5th article](http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-us-cases-trump-symptoms-cdc-who-a9380251.html) from the Independent, which is critical of the administration’s response–to summarize, words from the administration are not necessarily in sync with the CDC et al. (Be warned, The Independent has a left-center bias.) This is intended as a debate thread on public health measures, not economic policy. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/2 "2020-03-07T20:36:09Z")
> [@Settimo](#): > > Your thoughts on the steps being taken to reduce the spread of the virus in the United States? Aside from funding research, and perhaps some stockpiling of medical supplies, too much is being done. At the beginning, travel restrictions were worth trying on the grounds that maybe they would work. Now that it’s reasonably clear people can’t contain it (due to too many mild cases, so you’ll never know who to quarantine), and while it remains an uncommon disease compared to seasonal flu, there is no point in quarantine. If, in some particular U.S.city, it gets close to the point where the hospitals are overwhelmed, the local health department should try to slow down the spread by asking many businesses to close. But shutting down economic activity, at a national or even state level, to slow down transmission by an unknown degree, for unknown benefit, doesn’t make sense to me. Politicians can’t follow my advice and expect to the re-elected. But if you ask what SHOULD be done – take only those steps for which scientific evidence of benefit is strong. Research is mostly needed on details of spread, and any seasonality, and treatment. Vaccine development is worthwhile, but, it may have the best chance of helping those not yet born. ---
**Author:** ![tastysandwiches](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7c8e57/32.png) [@tastysandwiches](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tastysandwiches)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/3 "2020-03-07T21:37:32Z")
If it gets to the point where hospitals are overwhelmed, it’s too late to try to control the spread. You’re correct that keeping it contained is out of the question at this point, it’s here and will grow exponentially. The goal at this point is to keep the exponent as small as possible. Let’s say 20% of the population is going to end up infected at some point. If this infections happen over the course of 6-8 months, that’s a whole lot more manageable than if they occur over the course of 6-8 weeks. Those numbers are completely made up, but the point is that it’s well worth attempting to slow the spread, even if the totals are the same in the end. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/4 "2020-03-07T22:32:52Z")
\>\> Is the US doing enough to slow the spread of Covid-19? (public health) No. The White House is in denial, responding with propaganda. I’m tempted to say the US isn’t amenable to the level of control necessary for such a pandemic but that’s not true; political courage and unsuppressed science are needed, not faith-healers\* and spin. - A fundamentalist who thinks prayer is the best treatment for AIDS is not a suitable health-crisis czar. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/5 "2020-03-07T22:39:58Z")
For a view into Trump’s priorities go to 8:50 in the below video. I’m shocked this isn’t bigger news. He’s such a psychopath he doesn’t even realize how this comes off. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/Ow5bhEi6EdY/maxresdefault.jpg "Chris Hayes: Trump Is Trying To BS His Way Through The Coronavirus Outbreak | All In | MSNBC") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow5bhEi6EdY) ---
**Author:** ![Settimo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eada6e/32.png) [@Settimo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Settimo)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/6 "2020-03-07T22:42:01Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Aside from funding research, and perhaps some stockpiling of medical supplies, too much is being done. But there’s a lot of fieldspace between economy-crushing measures and what’s being done now: actions such as getting people prepared for what to expect, coordinating state and local level responses with some kind of federal level oversight, and mass increases in testing (see [South Korea](http://www.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-tested-140-000-031000719.html) with some potential good news on the death rate). The article in the OP on the San Francisco man does raise concerns over how we’re handling our borders (eg isolating people with obvious symptoms), as well as what we might need to do at local levels (eg temperature guns, social distancing, and, yes, facemasks). Also, anticipating / preventing price gouging, runs on stores, and other selfish behavior. From an [article](http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486333-public-health-experts-warn-of-major-disruptions-from-coronavirus) in The Hill (note The Hill has a slight right-of-center bias): > [@](#): > > Some public health experts said the virus is putting a new focus on state and local health departments, the front-line responders who must both confront the virus and also make significant decisions about what elements of everyday life get shut down… Public health entities have not been in the situation to make large-scale population-level decisions for about 100 years. And I’m no public health official, but I kind of agree with this (from the same The Hill article): > [@](#): > > Katz said she was concerned that Americans have not yet fully grasped just how drastic the disruption might be, in part because the federal government has not offered strong guidance about the path ahead. “The challenge here is the administration has taken a posture of keep calm and carry on, particularly if it influences the economy, and I am deeply concerned that we are not doing everything we need to do,” Katz said. “For weeks, we’ve been talking about don’t panic but prepare. And I think a lot of people in the U.S. have taken prepare as meaning go out and buy a lot of toilet paper.” It seems this is SOP for the governmental machinery: at the state, local, and corporate levels, entities are trying to do what needs to get done, while POTUS sends messages woven between keeping everyone calm (good), tossing out a few hunches (which may or may not pan out; let’s do hope the death rate is lower as more are tested), and finds ways to get hisself in the media spotlight by striking partisan nerves (bad for the American immune system). Again, the The Hill article: > [@](#): > > “The challenge in the United States is magnified, in part, because of constant tensions in the political system and a broad lack of trust in government institutions. That puts a premium on local governments, which are generally seen in a more positive light than a federal government riven by partisanship.” ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/7 "2020-03-07T22:56:13Z")
> [@tastysandwiches](#): > > If this infections happen over the course of 6-8 months, that’s a whole lot more manageable than if they occur over the course of 6-8 weeks. > > Those numbers are completely made up, but the point is that it’s well worth attempting to slow the spread, even if the totals are the same in the end. It is only worth attempting if there is some good reason to think that the attempt will do some good. Suppose schools are closed. Then children go visit their friends. Or, if in poverty, perhaps they go to a church for a free lunch. The politicians attempted something, yes. But maybe they made it worse. [This is from the Department of Public Health of the City of Philadelphia](https://www.phila.gov/media/20200304102444/School-Guidance-to-Prevent-the-Spread-of-Coronavirus.pdf): > [@](#): > > At this point, the Health Department is unlikely to recommend school closure unless information were to become available showing that children play a significant role in community transmission and that school closure would have a substantial benefit in protecting residents. If it gets bad enough, the politicians will feel they have no choice but to take unsupported measures like closing the schools. Residents will demand it. But I support those leaders brave enough to, for as long as possible, do little when they have no evidence but a gut feeling as to what to do. At one time, it seemed obvious that bleeding would help almost any illness by getting rid of the bad blood. It seemed just as obvious as stopping travel might seem today. Doesn’t mean either one helps. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/8 "2020-03-07T23:08:09Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > It is only worth attempting if there is some good reason to think that the attempt will do some good. > > Suppose schools are closed. Then children go visit their friends. Or, if in poverty, perhaps they go to a church for a free lunch. The politicians attempted something, yes. But maybe they made it worse. > > [This is from the Department of Public Health of the City of Philadelphia](https://www.phila.gov/media/20200304102444/School-Guidance-to-Prevent-the-Spread-of-Coronavirus.pdf): > > If it gets bad enough, the politicians will feel they have no choice but to take unsupported measures like closing the schools. Residents will demand it. But I support those leaders brave enough to, for as long as possible, do little when they have no evidence but a gut feeling as to what to do. > > At one time, it seemed obvious that bleeding would help almost any illness by getting rid of the bad blood. It seemed just as obvious as stopping travel might seem today. Doesn’t mean either one helps. Yes, but in reality a lot of the ignorance on how many are infected does not lead anyone to do what it should be the proper thing. And this situation also painfully demonstrates why not having access to care means that a lot will be missed thanks to many being uninsured or not being able to afford care. > **[The coronavirus exposes our health care system's weaknesses. We can be stronger](https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/02/the-coronavirus-exposes-our-health-care-systems-weaknesses-we-can-be-stronger/)** > > A coronavirus is so tiny that 1,000 of them could be stacked in the thickness of a sheet of paper. It is an invisible threat — and it is making vivid the shortcomings of our health care system. > [@](#): > > The Trump administration’s mistakes have been symptomatic of this larger problem. Officials eliminated White House-level positions aimed at preventing pandemics two years ago, and sought to scale back work to deal with disease outbreaks elsewhere from 49 countries to 10. The administration bungled the roll-out of diagnostic tests. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration were too slow to adopt a suggestion made by former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb: loop in major academic medical centers so more tests can be run. Only now is testing capacity for coronavirus starting to ramp up. > > There is still a chance that cases that have been missed can be identified and controlled with measures like isolation or quarantine. Yet even if that can be done, the question is what happens next when the novel coronavirus comes into widespread contact with our health care system. > > To contain the virus, people will need to call health care providers as soon as they develop any flu-like symptoms. But will they do so if it means losing money? Not only do 26 million Americans lack health insurance, but nearly half of those with private insurance — another 60 million people — have high-deductible plans in which they can be on the hook for thousands of dollars. Already, the Miami Herald has reported on a man who was charged $3,270 for getting checked out at a hospital, and the New York Times profiled a man who is facing nearly $4,000 in bills after he and his daughter were quarantined following their return from China. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/9 "2020-03-07T23:34:00Z")
> [@](#): > > To contain the virus, people will need to call health care providers as soon as they develop any flu-like symptoms. This is the kind of made-up wish-fulfillment statements I am reading about this new disease. [the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year](https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year). Suppose everyone last year called their health care provider as soon as they developed any flu-like symptoms. And then they were tested for flu. Would flu have been contained, preventing this tragic loss of life? Why are people so in favor of mass testing for the one but not the other? At least, if caught with a very early test, you can take Tamiflu. There is no COVID-19 equivalent reason to test. COVID-19, like the flu, sheds virus even though the patient is hardly ill yet, and maybe never will get very ill. This is why neither one is rationally subject to quarantine measures. > [@Settimo](#): > > But there’s a lot of fieldspace between economy-crushing measures and what’s being done now: actions such as getting people prepared for what to expect, coordinating state and local level responses with some kind of federal level oversight, and mass increases in testing (see [South Korea](http://www.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-tested-140-000-031000719.html) with some potential good news on the death rate). I don’t totally disagree. But we don’t know what to expect. I support public libraries lending medical history books. I’m not a doctor, but I do read history. In large measure, those books tell us to expect the unexpected. As far as the death rate good news, comparison is to the People’s Republic of China, whose government-released statistics have long had big issues. Treatment of people seriously ill with COVID-19 is vital. But that only addresses symptoms. The disease itself can’t yet be treated. Testing may help society, but it won’t help the sick person. Testing does help with research, and therefore should be free. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/10 "2020-03-07T23:54:35Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > This is the kind of made-up wish-fulfillment statements I am reading about this new disease. > > [the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year](https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year). > > Suppose everyone last year called their health care provider as soon as they developed any flu-like symptoms. And then they were tested for flu. Would flu have been contained, preventing this tragic loss of life? Why are people so in favor of mass testing for the one but not the other? At least, if caught with a very early test, you can take Tamiflu. There is no COVID-19 equivalent reason to test. > > COVID-19, like the flu, sheds virus even though the patient is hardly ill yet, and maybe never will get very ill. This is why neither one is rationally subject to quarantine measures. Sorry, but this is just like demanding that being ignorant is better than knowing. Finding why a lot of the infections are not reported (and that goes BTW to the flu too) is just remarking about the inefiencies of the current system that we have. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/11 "2020-03-08T00:29:32Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Sorry, but this is just like demanding that being ignorant is better than knowing. Finding why a lot of the infections are not reported (and that goes BTW to the flu too) is just remarking about the inefiencies of the current system that we have. I have no idea if I ever had the flu. It’s because when I have cold-like symptoms, I never call my family doctor’s office to ask if I should be tested. And I have good insurance that usually has zero co-pay for tests (although I would have to pay an office visit co-pay if the doc wanted to see me first). And I have a good continuing relationship with my doctor. The government probably has some way to make the tests free. The government conceivably has a way to make testing locations nearby for most Americans (any pharmacy?), But the government has no way to get people with typical mild cold-like disease stand in line for testing that benefits society but not themselves personally. Now, if a big sample of people were tested, that would lead to good research papers. But it is not in nature of this that most people who get it will be tested. Our youngest son lived for years in Taiwan under their single-payer system. Despite trivial co-pays he could pay with zero financial stress, he didn’t go to the doc for a cold either. Now, Taiwanese are known for going to the doctor a lot, but we Americans are not Taiwanese, and even they don’t to go every time cold symptoms hit. There is a panic going on here that is leading to unrealistic expectations as to what is possible. This influenced my thinking: [Philly vaccine pioneer: We can’t rush a coronavirus vaccine](https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-trump-paul-offit-20200306.html) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/12 "2020-03-08T02:07:27Z")
That is not fine, Taiwan has no access to a vaccine either, and what are they doing? This is what I look at when I point at the inadequate response we have, based on your mentioning of Taiwan: > **[Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and...](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689)** > > This Viewpoint describes the outbreak response infrastructure developed by the Taiwanese government following the SARS epidemic in 2003 and actions in response to COVID-19, including dedicated hotlines for symptom reporting, mobile phone messaging... > [@](#): > > In 2004, the year after the SARS outbreak, the Taiwan government established the National Health Command Center (NHCC). The NHCC is part of a disaster management center that focuses on large-outbreak response and acts as the operational command point for direct communications among central, regional, and local authorities. The NHCC unified a central command system that includes the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC), the Biological Pathogen Disaster Command Center, the Counter-Bioterrorism Command Center, and the Central Medical Emergency Operations Center.5 > > On December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was notified of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China, Taiwanese officials began to board planes and assess passengers on direct flights from Wuhan for fever and pneumonia symptoms before passengers could deplane. As early as January 5, 2020, notification was expanded to include any individual who had traveled to Wuhan in the past 14 days and had a fever or symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection at the point of entry; suspected cases were screened for 26 viruses including SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Passengers displaying symptoms of fever and coughing were quarantined at home and assessed whether medical attention at a hospital was necessary. On January 20, while sporadic cases were reported from China, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) officially activated the CECC for severe special infectious pneumonia under NHCC, with the minister of health and welfare as the designated commander. The CECC coordinated efforts by various ministries, including the ministries of transportation, economics, labor, and education and the Environmental Protection Administration, among others, in a comprehensive effort to counteract the emerging public health crisis. > Managing the Crisis > > For the past 5 weeks (January 20-February 24), the CECC has rapidly produced and implemented a list of at least 124 action items (eTable in the Supplement) including border control from the air and sea, case identification (using new data and technology), quarantine of suspicious cases, proactive case finding, resource allocation (assessing and managing capacity), reassurance and education of the public while fighting misinformation, negotiation with other countries and regions, formulation of policies toward schools and childcare, and relief to businesses. > [@](#): > > Moreover, Taiwan enhanced COVID-19 case finding by proactively seeking out patients with severe respiratory symptoms (based on information from the National Health Insurance [NHI] database) who had tested negative for influenza and retested them for COVID-19; 1 was found of 113 cases. The toll-free number 1922 served as a hotline for citizens to report suspicious symptoms or cases in themselves or others; as the disease progressed, this hotline has reached full capacity, so each major city was asked to create its own hotline as an alternative. It is not known how often this hotline has been used. The government addressed the issue of disease stigma and compassion for those affected by providing food, frequent health checks, and encouragement for those under quarantine. This rapid response included hundreds of action items (eTable in the Supplement). As for this bit: > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I have no idea if I ever had the flu. It’s because when I have cold-like symptoms, I never call my family doctor’s office to ask if I should be tested. You are really then depending on an argument from ignorance, made worse by the reality that what the current administration did was to set us up into avoiding preventive measures like other developed nations are doing. > **[Did Trump Administration Fire the US Pandemic Response Team?](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/)** > > As a new coronavirus spread in 2020, so did concerns about the United States' preparedness for a potential pandemic. > [@](#): > > Legum outlined a series of cost-cutting decisions made by the Trump administration in preceding years that had gutted the nation’s infectious disease defense infrastructure. The “pandemic response team” firing claim referred to news accounts from Spring 2018 reporting that White House officials tasked with directing a national response to a pandemic had been ousted. > Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer abruptly departed from his post leading the global health security team on the National Security Council in May 2018 amid a reorganization of the council by then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, and Ziemer’s team was disbanded. Tom Bossert, whom the Washington Post reported “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks,” had been fired one month prior. > It’s thus true that the Trump administration axed the executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic and did not replace it, eliminating Ziemer’s position and reassigning others, although Bolton was the executive at the top of the National Security Council chain of command at the time. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/13 "2020-03-08T02:25:11Z")
You’d probably know if you’d had the flu. It’s not like a bad cold, but more like praying for a quick death. People mocking others for buying water in bottles in other threads should consider that with a flu-like illness, lifting a gallon water jug to pour a glass might be beyond one’s ability, and going to the store for more food or toilet paper completely impossible (quite aside from any considerations about contagion). My mother tells a story about both of my parents having the flu at around age 27 and being unable to get out of bed, and of me (3-4 years old) bringing them cups of water and saving my little sister by throwing handfuls of Cheerios into her crib. I vividly remember that the first time I had the flu, it would take several hours to work up the strength to get to a toilet that was 10’ away because I wasn’t sure I could crawl there, and having to rest on the floor for at least an hour on the way back to bed. I hallucinated for several days. In terms of infrastructure, I have seen a local flu outbreak jeopardize the staffing of our water treatment plant. For natural disasters, I’ve been trapped in the house without electricity for days because the road up my hill doesn’t get plowed. I’ve bundled up and hiked to the only nearby grocery to find it empty because no trucks were getting through. My local earthquake recommendations call for weeks of supplies because if the bridges across the rivers fall, the estimate for repairing them is over two years. While it’s not useful to panic, I’d argue that it’s very useful to be prepared to shelter in place for a few weeks no matter what the reason. If nothing else, the cat litter is going to smell terrible if it can’t be replaced, and you’re going to be really sick of cold canned pinto beans after a few days. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/14 "2020-03-08T03:34:51Z")
It would be one thing if the “downplaying” crowd were coming from a place of expertise and learnedness. But the “evidence” they have is the cold comfort kind. “It’s just a flu!” OK, but the flu is _scary_. Like **susan** , I know what the flu is like and I’m really NOT comforted knowing that I might get some weird, untreatable version of it. I get the flu shot every year for a reason. At any rate, there is plenty of evidence that this isn’t like the flu. There are estimates that some 20% of people who get the infection require hospitalization. This is much higher than what we find with the flu. “It only kills old people!” OK, but “old people” are still people. My parents are old. My grandmother is old. Some of my coworkers are old. And many of these old people that I like and respect have chronic illnesses. My mother has asthma. I have a coworker in his 60s who is a heavy smoker and is still in a fragile state after the heart attack and testicular cancer he had a few years back. If just 1% of all these “old people” die, most of us will be mourning multiple loved ones. “The fatality rate is lower than what’s reported!” OK, but we don’t know by how much, since this would require widespread testing. Which is not happening in the US right now. “Lookit South Korea! The fatality rate there is only 0.5%”. OK, but let’s also look at Italy, where the mortality rate is 4.25%. Now, we can surmise that the age distribution is skewed older in Italy than it is in other places. And of course SK is doing a bang-up job with testing. But there are still too many unknown variables to know for sure if we are going to be more like Italy or more like SK. “Lookit China! The infection rate is decreasing! All is well!” OK, but China has quarantined entire towns and cities. It has also set up extra hospitals, which has no doubt prevented non-affected patients from being exposed to the virus. The US isn’t doing anything like this and probably never will. If you point out these things to people, you risk getting labeled a “panic-monger”. Simply expressing any skepticism of the doublespeak coming from the White House means you hate Trump and thus America. This disturbs me more than anything else. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/15 "2020-03-08T13:04:58Z")
> [@susan](#): > > You’d probably know if you’d had the flu. If you had MERS, you wouldn’t _probably_ know. You could _almost_ certainly know. That’s why MERS could be controlled (but not totally wiped out) by quarantines, and the flu cannot. A month ago, we didn’t know how COVID-19 fell on this spectrum. If the virus is just the right kind, a good health system can be the difference between breakout into the general population, and not. And it looks like this one isn’t the right kind. > [@monstro](#): > > Simply expressing any skepticism of the doublespeak coming from the White House means you hate Trump and thus America. Evidence is lacking that COVID-19 can be substantially delayed by quarantine. Just as evidence is lacking that anyone in this thread likes Donald Trump. Trump/Pence statements on COVID-19 are sufficiently varied that everyone in this thread could charge everyone else with being a partial administration stooge. If you want to accuse me of this, that’s allowed under the Straight Dope rules. But then I could accuse back :eek: If viruses are, by some chance, conscious and intelligent, this one has nothing to fear from world leaders, whether competent or buffoons. That’s because it frequently sheds virus before or without severe symptoms. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/16 "2020-03-08T13:24:23Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > If it gets bad enough, the politicians will feel they have no choice but to take unsupported measures like closing the schools. Residents will demand it. But I support those leaders brave enough to, for as long as possible, do little when they have no evidence but a gut feeling as to what to do. > > At one time, it seemed obvious that bleeding would help almost any illness by getting rid of the bad blood. It seemed just as obvious as stopping travel might seem today. Doesn’t mean either one helps. Outright travel bans are counterproductive because of the effect: the encourage countries to manipulate the statistics and not share information, which in turn makes the problem worse - I agree with that point. However, closing schools, teleworking, and cancellation of public gatherings that aren’t essential is common sense. You slow the rate of transmission that way. No, you don’t completely stop the transmissions entirely, and you’re correct that some people will ignore requests to stay at home, but certain measures can slow transmission rates. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/17 "2020-03-08T13:30:30Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Suppose everyone last year called their health care provider as soon as they developed any flu-like symptoms. And then they were tested for flu. Would flu have been contained, preventing this tragic loss of life? Why are people so in favor of mass testing for the one but not the other? At least, if caught with a very early test, you can take Tamiflu. There is no COVID-19 equivalent reason to test. > > COVID-19, like the flu, sheds virus even though the patient is hardly ill yet, and maybe never will get very ill. This is why neither one is rationally subject to quarantine measures. COVID-19’s fatality rate is markedly higher than that of flu, meaning anyone who tests positive is about 10-20 times more likely to die from it. And if you’re older, the fatality rate is extremely high. Moreover, even if you don’t die, a substantial number of people who present with symptoms require hospitalization, which includes mechanical ventilation, and that ain’t cheap. There’s real reason to be concerned about this virus. It’s true that flu has a lot more disease vectors, but the more time that we spend not taking this seriously, the more likely it is that this will change. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/18 "2020-03-08T13:41:36Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Just as evidence is lacking that anyone in this thread likes Donald Trump. This isn’t the only thread on the SDMB about COVID-19. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/19 "2020-03-08T17:13:51Z")
> [@](#): > > Your thoughts on the steps being taken to reduce the spread of the virus in the United States? I think that the CDC is on top of this. Which doesn’t mean that it couldn’t break out and spread rapidly, because it certainly cool. But what can be done has been, IMHO and based on what I’ve read from the calmer experts in the field. I’ve also been involved in several emergency exercises and what-if scenarios at the state and local level in the past 3 weeks, and while I could wish for more (I always wish for that) I’d say we are in fair shape to weather this thing. Basically, IF this thing was going to be contained, China and the CCP fucked that up. Perhaps even if THEY had taken it serious right from the start and not tried (and are still trying) to cover it up and cover their asses after that failed, MAYBE it could have been contained. But we have burned that bridge at this point so have to deal with reality. > [@](#): > > Here’s a March 5th article about a man returning from China, dismayed at the lack of screening at the San Francisco airport (he said he felt safer in China). :dubious: Either the man is an idiot, doesn’t know what he’s talking about concerning how things are actually transpiring in China, or he’s a paid mouthpiece. From any perspective (even if you are a CCP elite) it’s MUCH more dangerous to be in China at moment, so anyone who thinks they are safer is a fool. > [@](#): > > Here’s an article about how Americans are divided along partisan lines over the virus (yep, folks, even with something like this). Didn’t read the article, but it’s pretty apparent that both sides are trying to use this outbreak for political gain. There is so much misinformation and horseshit out about this thing that the mind boggles. For my part, the anger I feel at China not only not being called out for their continuing role in this cluster fuck but being praised and touted really highlights the divide world wide. The WHO response especially is sickening wrt China and the CCP, though most seem to be unaware and just nodding along. In the US we have an idiotic President who is clueless and his party who seem to be handwaving away the issues and on the other side we see a party trying to fix blame on the US President and fan the flames of fear…and all for political gain. It is nearly as sickening as the China/CCP situation. Myself, I think people should fucking take a deep breath, calm the fuck down, be watchful and wary but not panic, and listen the fuck to what the CDC is saying. They are putting out almost daily updates along with all kinds of good information about the risks and steps that can be taken to mitigate your chances of getting this thing, and what to do if you do have it. People are freaking listening to politicians and talking heads instead of the experts. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/20 "2020-03-08T18:14:04Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I think that the CDC is on top of this. Note: I’m only singling you out since you’re the only one who has express satisfaction with the CDC. I’m curious what your take is of [Gov. Cuomo’s claim that the CDC isn’t allowing private testing.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmNI0atk-7Y) There’s another report that [the CDC’s recommendations are being overridden by the White House](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486475-trump-administration-overrode-health-officials-recommendation-that-elderly). Personally, I am torn. I have always had enormous respect for the CDC. I know the vast majority of the folks who work there are excellent scientists. But I believe the CDC is under a lot of political pressure right now. It looks like the pressure is impeding them from really being on “top of this”. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061.md?page=2)