# Is the US doing enough to slow the spread of Covid-19? (public health) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 7, 2020, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061 "2020-03-07T19:32:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/21 "2020-03-08T18:26:25Z")
> [@susan](#): > > You’d probably know if you’d had the flu. It’s not like a bad cold, but more like praying for a quick death. > > People mocking others for buying water in bottles in other threads should consider that with a flu-like illness, lifting a gallon water jug to pour a glass might be beyond one’s ability, and going to the store for more food or toilet paper completely impossible (quite aside from any considerations about contagion). > > My mother tells a story about both of my parents having the flu at around age 27 and being unable to get out of bed, and of me (3-4 years old) bringing them cups of water and saving my little sister by throwing handfuls of Cheerios into her crib. I vividly remember that the first time I had the flu, it would take several hours to work up the strength to get to a toilet that was 10’ away because I wasn’t sure I could crawl there, and having to rest on the floor for at least an hour on the way back to bed. I hallucinated for several days. In terms of infrastructure, I have seen a local flu outbreak jeopardize the staffing of our water treatment plant. Exactly. Which is why I am surprised that people are taking it so light. Almost all of us have had flu and multiple times and we know that its a _horrid_ experience. You are bedridden, weak as fuck and useless. And by all accounts, COVID19 has worse symptoms. And longer duration. If a significant amount of people are down sick, even if most recover, how will that affect the workforce and the economy. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/22 "2020-03-08T18:39:25Z")
> [@XT](#): > > :dubious: Either the man is an idiot, doesn’t know what he’s talking about concerning how things are actually transpiring in China, or he’s a paid mouthpiece. From any perspective (even if you are a CCP elite) it’s MUCH more dangerous to be in China at moment, so anyone who thinks they are safer is a fool. China has taken extreme measures to test populations and to isolate people. The numbers show that the numbers of new infections has dropped markedly in recent days. Of course, it is possible that they’re just making shit up, and whole cities are now dead zones. On the other hand, the US government seems to be handling this by pretending it does not exist, or is a hoax by Democrats. This is the scary part. > [@XT](#): > > People are freaking listening to politicians and talking heads instead of the experts. :smack: Absolutely correct. The politicians are fuckwits. Unfortunately, in this Trump era, the politicians are muzzling the experts. ---
**Author:** ![Settimo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eada6e/32.png) [@Settimo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Settimo)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/23 "2020-03-08T20:11:38Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Evidence is lacking that COVID-19 can be substantially delayed by quarantine. Just as evidence is lacking that anyone in this thread likes Donald Trump. > > Trump/Pence statements on COVID-19 are sufficiently varied that everyone in this thread could charge everyone else with being a partial administration stooge. If you want to accuse me of this, that’s allowed under the Straight Dope rules. But then I could accuse back :eek: _I_ certainly wouldn’t accuse you of that, and I think it would be grossly unfair for others here to do so. What **monstro** was probably getting at is the frustration around such partisan tactics, especially the weaponization of the false dichotomy: if you dare be critical of anything I, as a political leader, am doing, then it’s automatically a vicious attack against my party’s ideology (and, in the extreme, America itself). That is very bad for fluid, critical, public thought, and bad for clear-eyed views of what’s going on. Hopefully, those posting here are flexible enough to see that cautions over partisan tactics can be safely made without giving in to total inter-party animus in tearing down Trump, or unfairly binning anyone on the “we’re doing OK” side of this debate with such a negative-partisan verdict on the administration. ---
**Author:** ![poweroftheglory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/919ad9/32.png) [@poweroftheglory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/poweroftheglory)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2020, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/24 "2020-03-08T21:51:40Z")
The overall CFR is likely less than 1% assuming that the healthcare system is good quality and is not overwhelmed. But, if too many people are infected at once our healthcare system will likely not be able to cope with the stress and the CFR might skyrocket to 3-5 percent. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/25 "2020-03-09T00:16:48Z")
[‘Unclean! Unclean!’: The Questionable History of Quarantines](https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a31260166/quarantine-history-coronavirus/) - _From the Black Death to Coronavirus, we’ve tried to separate sick people from the rest of society for centuries—to mixed results._ > [@](#): > > At one point in human history, quarantines served a valuable role in stopping the spread of communicable diseases. But with the advent of modern medicine, they’re no longer a solution for any health benefit—just a way to allay panic in the general population. Quashing panic is a good idea. But are quarantines now political moves, not medical necessities? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/26 "2020-03-09T01:14:27Z")
> [@Settimo](#): > > Is the US doing enough to slow the spread of Covid-19? (public health) Considering that the US, in practical terms as of right now, isn’t actually doing _anything_ to stop the spread of COVID-19, I’m gonna go with “no”. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/27 "2020-03-09T01:23:50Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I think that the CDC is on top of this. They’re just now beginning to wake up, but a larger problem is that the highest levels of the administration is putting political pressure on the scientists - and that’s bad news. That’s exactly the same mistake that China’s CCP made. They didn’t want to spook people, didn’t want to scare off investors and companies whose supply chain was in China - and it backfired spectacularly. And we’re making the same mistake. > [@XT](#): > > Which doesn’t mean that it couldn’t break out and spread rapidly, because it certainly cool. Day late, dollar short - it’s already spreading well beyond what we know. That’s what happens when you don’t have testing. > [@XT](#): > > Basically, IF this thing was going to be contained, China and the CCP fucked that up. Perhaps even if THEY had taken it serious right from the start and not tried (and are still trying) to cover it up and cover their asses after that failed, MAYBE it could have been contained. But we have burned that bridge at this point so have to deal with reality. No question the CCP screwed the pooch, but there are health systems like South Korea, Singapore, and Germany which are prepared to deal with this, and then there’s ours, in which people are afraid to spend the money it takes to get seen by a doctor, tested, and potentially hospitalized, and potentially take time off of work. All of the ills of “socialism” are exactly what separate our system from the rest of the industrialized world, and there’s a reason why our death rate is going to be inevitably - unavoidably - higher. > [@XT](#): > > Myself, I think people should fucking take a deep breath, calm the fuck down, be watchful and wary but not panic, and listen the fuck to what the CDC is saying. They are putting out almost daily updates along with all kinds of good information about the risks and steps that can be taken to mitigate your chances of getting this thing, and what to do if you do have it. People are freaking listening to politicians and talking heads instead of the experts. :smack: Dude, we’re about to have March Madness. We’re about to enter marathon season. We’re not going to cancel events because our lack of testing indicates that there’s nothing to worry about - not enough known disease vectors. Let’s come back to this time next month. I bet it’s a different story then. A lot of people are about to die from COVID-19, and you can absolutely bet your ass off that markets are about to experience shocked shit. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/28 "2020-03-09T01:28:23Z")
Two words: “Spring break.” ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/29 "2020-03-09T03:46:22Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Evidence is lacking that COVID-19 can be substantially delayed by quarantine. Yeah, evidence is lacking, except in the 33 non-Hubei provinces of China that had _5 million_ Hubei residents filter through them before the lockdown started and all of them managed to get the virus under control. In the meantime, a few hundred to thousand Chinese people maybe travelled to Iran or Italy and they both have more cases than any non-Hubei province. You can talk about how impractical a China style quarantine is for anywhere else in the world all you want but you shouldn’t continue denying that it works. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/30 "2020-03-09T06:53:17Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Dude, we’re about to have March Madness. We’re about to enter marathon season. We’re not going to cancel events because our lack of testing indicates that there’s nothing to worry about - not enough known disease vectors. BILLBOARD says event promoters are waiting for local emergency declarations to shut them down so they can collect cancellation insurance - which one insurer says will exceed 9/11 claims. Without a [force majeure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure) ruling, they’re ruined. Admission-charging events will close to avoid civil liability and/or so promoters can file bankruptcy i.e. take the up-front money and run. But that leaves free fun. > [@susan](#): > > Two words: “Spring break.” Free fun. A good time for us old farts to avoid the hottest party towns a.k.a. viral petri dishes. MrsRico and I hadn’t planned to snag kids at Santa Cruz or Cancun anyway. Easter features huge Holy Week gatherings; I think we’ll skip Antigua Guatemala and Valencia Spain, too. Are Easter Parades still scheduled for US cities? > [@asahi](#): > > Let’s come back to this time next month. I bet it’s a different story then. A lot of people are about to die from COVID-19, and you can absolutely bet your ass off that **markets are about to experience shocked shit.** It’s happening right now. Glance at business news: Oil prices in free-fall. Asian markets crashing. Cryptocurrencies crashing. US Treasury yields crashing to below 1% - first time in history. China exports crashing. Travel crashing. Wall Street opens in a few hours. It won’t be pretty. Sure, “buy when there’s blood in the streets.” This assumes you have some idea when the bleeding will stop. Good luck. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/31 "2020-03-09T13:04:04Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Myself, I think people should fucking take a deep breath, calm the fuck down, be watchful and wary but not panic, and listen the fuck to what the CDC is saying. They are putting out almost daily updates along with all kinds of good information about the risks and steps that can be taken to mitigate your chances of getting this thing, and what to do if you do have it. I’d be a hell of a lot more trusting of the CDC if they weren’t required to filter all their communications with the public through Mike Pence, who’s loyalty is to Trump, oligarchs, and the Republican party and not the American public in general. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/32 "2020-03-09T13:13:18Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > Personally, I am torn. I have always had enormous respect for the CDC. I know the vast majority of the folks who work there are excellent scientists. But I believe the CDC is under a lot of political pressure right now. It looks like the pressure is impeding them from really being on “top of this”. Political pressure after years of funding cuts. When I worked in the insurance industry I had contact with people at the CDC. They’re hardworking people dedicated to medicine and science. But I think they’ve been hamstrung by an administration more concerned with their personal welfare than the welfare of the people they were elected to represent. ---
**Author:** ![Settimo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eada6e/32.png) [@Settimo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Settimo)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2020, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/33 "2020-03-10T22:03:59Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > Quashing panic is a good idea. But are quarantines now political moves, not medical necessities? In this case, I don’t think they’re just political moves. I’d divide countries dealing with this virus roughly into “pay now” or “pay later.” Pay now include Singapore and Hong Kong. Pay later include China (Hubei) and Italy. Hong Kong is a good example. They credit widespread adoption of personal hygiene measures, including washing hands and wearing face masks, and measures to minimize contact between people (social distancing). From a Financial Times [article](https://www.ft.com/content/ad7ae6b4-5eab-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4): > [@](#): > > Hong Kong has instituted a partial lockdown. Schools and universities have been closed since the middle of January; employees have been encouraged to work from home; public sports facilities and museums have been shut; and residents told to avoid large gatherings. > > The territory has also closed most of its border crossings with mainland China and ordered arrivals from the mainland to self-quarantine for 14 days. The same source remarks that Hong Kong’s flu season has ended significantly early. And an [NPR article](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/01/810392094/hong-kong-has-contained-coronavirus-so-far-but-at-a-significant-cost): > [@](#): > > The centerpiece of Hong Kong’s containment strategy is aggressively tracking down suspected cases and quickly quarantining anyone who’s potentially been exposed. At one point in February, the city had nearly 12,000 people in various forms of quarantine. Some are held in what used to be summer camps, others in a just-completed complex of public housing towers. Some are electronically monitored at home. > > I think [Hong Kong] is a really good example where I believe that we’re seeing [that] social distancing measures, personal hygiene measures really, really work. The same article debates whether Hong Kong’s measures are too much. Anyone see the US adopting such measures? Just for my own reference, I’ve been watching the diagnosed case counts on the John Hopkins “dashboard” [site](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6). Here’s the US numbers, starting March 2nd (through to 3/10/20): {102, 107, 148, 213, 260, 401, 497, 605, 808} We can’t post images here, but you can plug the logarithms of the values yourself into [this](https://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/regression/default.aspx) linear regression calculator. The linear fit (on log scale) looks like a textbook example of exponential growth. The daily growth rate is around 32%, using the least-squares fit. So the number of US cases in days (d) since March 2nd goes like 102\*(1.32)^d. An unpleasant curve to look at, but I suspect we’ll see stronger and stronger containment measures as the cases keep climbing. (The Hong Kong case count is almost flat.) ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/34 "2020-03-11T16:54:15Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Suppose everyone last year called their health care provider as soon as they developed any flu-like symptoms. And then they were tested for flu. Would flu have been contained, preventing this tragic loss of life? Why are people so in favor of mass testing for the one but not the other? At least, if caught with a very early test, you can take Tamiflu. There is no COVID-19 equivalent reason to test. Like you say, there are treatments. And it’s good for statistical analysis of the flu. But the question I have to ask is, how often do people get ACTUAL flu-like symptoms that aren’t the flu? I don’t mean the poorly-named “Stomach flu”, which is gastroenteritis. I mean real, honest to God influenza symptoms. Because for me, they’re pretty unmistakable- relatively high fever, cough, body aches, generally feeling like crap. I typically don’t run a fever with other upper respiratory infections, and nor do I feel quite so atrocious as I do with the flu. I would think that if you were suffering those symptoms, it would be worthwhile to report it to your doctor, if for no other reason, than for tracking and data gathering purposes. That stuff does come in handy later for epidemiologists and public health specialists. ---
**Author:** ![Dark\_Sponge](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dark_sponge/32/121_2.png) [@Dark\_Sponge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dark_Sponge)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/35 "2020-03-11T21:38:16Z")
IMO, there were two available options at the start: #1 Completely shutdown all US borders and remove a large number of freedoms related to citizen travel and congregation then wait it out for a couple years until the vaccine was ready. #2 Don’t. Any choice in-between was a farce as only extreme measures could have stopped the virus from breaking containment. The government chose #2 and I think it was the right choice. At this point I’d rather the government focus on a realistic goal like protecting the elderly from covid-19. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/36 "2020-03-11T23:29:56Z")
I just hope they get this under control before tick season starts up-I’m not a big fan of Corona with Lyme. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/37 "2020-03-12T00:13:56Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I just hope they get this under control before tick season starts up-I’m not a big fan of Corona with Lyme. _¡Ay carumba!_ Top it off with cheap _aguardiente_ rum to disinfect. A jalapeño squirt couldn’t hurt, too. There’s a sure procedure. Top-off all suspected COVID infected with rum. Count the survivors. Tally those who died smiling. Wait, this POTUS is a teetotaller. He’s doomed. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/38 "2020-03-12T00:52:08Z")
My university just shut down in-person final exams and all gatherings of 50 or more people, and moved to online-only for the first 3 weeks of spring term. In addition, they’ve cancelled university-sanctioned travel indefinitely and urge us not to travel over break. Residence halls remain open. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/39 "2020-03-12T01:38:53Z")
Zomg! Tom hanks, rita wilson!!! Zomg!!! ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061/40 "2020-03-12T05:28:45Z")
Ex-CDC director predicts up to 1.6 million US deaths over 2-3 years. [(cite)](https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/ex-cdc-director-worst-case-scenario-for-coronavirus-is-1-6-million-americans-dead/) But POTUS has it under control. :eek: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-doing-enough-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-public-health/849061.md?page=3)