# Is the US EV market dead? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 14, 2026, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671 "2026-02-14T20:46:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/301 "2026-02-20T23:10:29Z")
Can you get some kind of dual horn option? One sound for _“Excuse me sir or madam, I just wanted to make sure you were aware of my vehicle’s presence in your vicinity?”_, and one for the standard _“WATCH IT, YOU ASSHOLE, WHERE’D YOU LEARN TO DRIVE?!!?!”_ function? ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/302 "2026-02-20T23:14:37Z")
I sometimes watch train webcams, usually to watch Amtrak arrivals. Sometimes, when a series of coal cars, which have open tops, go by, someone will say, “Hey, look! Fuel for electric vehicles.” Political discussion isn’t allowed, so this is all they can say about it. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2026, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/303 "2026-02-21T07:12:15Z")
Briefly going back to the idea that EV’s are less environmentally sound than an Ice car. There is some truth to that in the short term. It takes more energy to make an EV so there’s a breakeven point. I’ve seen anything from 20,000 miles to 75,000 miles but never anything connected to vehicle or batter size. If it’s on the low side then they are certainly better than ICE over the life of the car. I’m still not seeing the benefit of a pure EV. \*\* FOR ME\*\*. I don’t drive enough miles daily to justify the expense of an EV. I also don’t like lithium batteries. They’re great for power tools but I’ve had a motorcycle battery and a charger battery go thermal and expand. Luckily they didn’t ignite and burn my garage down. I will no longer put a lithium battery in a motorcycle. I will certainly get a hybrid when Lithium batteries are replaced with something better. I expect gas stations will naturally provide charging stations when there are more EV’s on the road. It will happen purely as a result of demand. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2026, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/304 "2026-02-21T12:51:21Z")
I don’t presume to know what is right for YOU but a low mileage commuter who only has that use case and does not need a new car or cutting edge tech might be well served by a very well priced used EV, even an older model Leaf. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2026, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/305 "2026-02-21T13:05:05Z")
Anyway, you have to look at new cars purchased per year to get a sense of adoption. People keep cars for a long time, and people who buy new cars frequently don’t throw away the old ones, they sell them to other people who will drive them. I’ve seen a bunch of charts showing things like, “backup cameras were mandated in all new cars going forward. He’s a graph showing how much of the fleet had them in the past five years, and how much is the fleet (that is, all cars driven in the US) will have them over the next ten years. And here’s how many years it will take before 50% of cars have them”. With 100% adoption, through a legal mandate, after years of an option being popular, it still typically takes years for 50% of the fleet to be equipped. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2026, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/306 "2026-02-21T16:41:26Z")
The half-life of cars is long. And the decay curve isn’t as simple as that of radioactivity. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2026, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/307 "2026-02-21T17:28:24Z")
my daily driver is 25 years old. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2026, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/308 "2026-02-21T17:56:04Z")
Huh, that seems young to take up a career as a chauffeur. Does he/she just work for you part-time on the commute or something? …oh. 😳🙄☺ ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2026, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/309 "2026-02-22T23:35:47Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Can you get some kind of dual horn option? One sound for _“Excuse me sir or madam, I just wanted to make sure you were aware of my vehicle’s presence in your vicinity?”_, and one for the standard _“WATCH IT, YOU ASSHOLE, WHERE’D YOU LEARN TO DRIVE?!!?!”_ function? My Volt had a pedestrian warning horn I don’t recall ever using it, except for fun ---
**Author:** ![Spiderman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spiderman/32/230_2.png) [@Spiderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiderman)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/310 "2026-02-23T01:36:14Z")
> [@Spiderman](#): > > as reliable (there is one new car dealer near me that must have disdain for EVs as their charging station is typically _double_ parked with inventory making their chargers physically unrechable) Drove past this dealer earlier today. For the first time _ever_ since they installed them, the recharging stations were available. Of course, _all_ of the cars in their inventory were tightly parked, either in the showroom or service bays. There were **no** cars on the ‘lot’ due to the fact we’re getting at least a foot & more like 18" of snow by tomorrow in official-NWS blizzard conditions, so one probably shouldn’t be out driving anyway, negating the need for a charge. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/311 "2026-02-23T14:08:46Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Briefly going back to the idea that EV’s are less environmentally sound than an Ice car. There is some truth to that in the short term. It takes more energy to make an EV so there’s a breakeven point. I’ve seen anything from 20,000 miles to 75,000 miles but never anything connected to vehicle or batter size. Curious what your source is for these numbers, as there’s definitely a lot of misinformation out there, as I cited above. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/312 "2026-02-23T14:50:10Z")
About 10 years ago, when EVs weren’t as good as they are now, and a lot of people complained about them “burning coal”, i saw a presentation at Harvard quick covered that topic. The presenter said that it’s very complicated, and depends where you live and what sources your electricity and how efficient that upstream power plant is. He said that in most of the US, anywhere where the electricity was hydro, or nuclear, or gas, an electric vehicle was responsible for less carbon released into the atmosphere per mile driven. He said in certain parts of the US that relied on old, inefficient power plants the carbon needed to power the EV was comparable to the carbon needed to power an ICE, mostly because EVs are heavier. And that there were chunks of China (paradoxically the most enthusiastic EV market) where EV use actually resulted in more carbon per mile. Of course, there are environmental costs beyond carbon. But all those Americans talking about EVs burning coal were, on a macro level, wrong. Municipal power plants are so enormously more efficient than the little engine in an automobile that even if your only source of electricity was an creaking old coal plant, you were doing slightly better than gasoline burners. There’s a lot of money behind convincing people that gasoline is king. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/313 "2026-02-23T14:58:49Z")
Here’s a recent study showing how much better EVs are, environmentally: [https://news.umich.edu/evs-reduce-climate-pollution-but-by-how-much-new-u-m-research-has-the-answer/](https://news.umich.edu/evs-reduce-climate-pollution-but-by-how-much-new-u-m-research-has-the-answer/) And here’s a different analysis from 2025 that says that the environmental break-even point for EVs is between 1.4 and 1.9 years: > **[Carbon Footprint Face-Off: A Full Picture of EVs vs. Gas Cars](https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/just-how-dirty-is-your-ev)** > > Is there any truth to the idea that electric cars are only as clean as their power source? I’m not an engineer and feel fully unqualified to judge these analyses, but maybe folks with more background in the field than me can evaluate them? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/314 "2026-02-23T15:01:03Z")
From Wikipedia: According to a recent study by Junk Car Medics the average vehicle in the USA last 16.58 years and 156,470 miles.[[6]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity#cite_note-6) So if the breakeven point is under two years, electric cars are a big net win. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/315 "2026-02-23T19:36:08Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > According to a recent study by Junk Car Medics the average vehicle in the USA last 16.58 years and 156,470 miles Yeah, but that’s an unreliable bit of data to use since I assume it lumps ICE and EV and you’d have to control for whether one is being held longer than the other. We’re probably not going to have great data on that for a little while, just because EVs are only recently starting to become a reasonable used choice and the earliest models were to my understanding less robust in terms of batteries. I’m sure it still comes out very much in favor of EVs, I’d just be wary of plugging that particular data point into a formula at this time. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/316 "2026-02-23T19:53:10Z")
That estimate from “Junk Car Medics” seems high at 16.58 years. [The Bureau of Transportation Statistics says](https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states) the average age of light vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks) was 12.8 years in 2025. And that number has been increasing steadily. In 2015, it was 11.5 and in 2005 it was 9.8. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/317 "2026-02-23T20:19:38Z")
If I’m not mistaken, the 16.58 is given as the lifespan of a car, while 12.8 is given as the average (mean? median? who knows) age of a car. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/318 "2026-02-23T20:25:05Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > He said that in most of the US, anywhere where the electricity was hydro, or nuclear, or gas, an electric vehicle was responsible for less carbon released into the atmosphere per mile driven. He said in certain parts of the US that relied on old, inefficient power plants the carbon needed to power the EV was comparable to the carbon needed to power an ICE, mostly because EVs are heavier. [Here](https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/72h/hourly) is a fascinating site that shows worldwide the carbon emissions power generation is causing. Zooming in you can get the specific details as to the source and where any is being exported or imported.. For example as I write this, about 45 minutes past solar noon, SRP\* is generating 91gCO2/wKh, less than half that of APS\* – 204 Drilling down I can see SRP is 69% nuclear, 21% solar, 5% coal and 11% is going to recharge storage batteries. APS, otoh is 31% solar, 11% coal, 9% natural gas and 2% wind with 7% to the batteries. \*Salt River Project and Arizona Public Service. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/319 "2026-02-23T21:52:50Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > [Here](https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/72h/hourly) is a fascinating site that shows worldwide the carbon emissions power Thanks, that site is very interesting. Just for fun, here are some calculations based on my 30 mile round trip commute. This is based on the previous 12 month average 376 gCO2eq/kWh from that site for the PSCo power district. | Vehicle | gCO2 | Efficiency | | --- | --- | --- | | Tesla Model 3 | 2789 | 260 Wh/mile | | Chevy Suburban | 17780 | 15 MPG | | Triumph Street Twin | 4444 | 60 MPG | | Old VW GTI | 10668 | 25 MPG | As EV advocates say, the same car can produce less CO2 over time as electric generation gets better, but gas is going to stay the same. Probably 5 or more years ago when I last looked at this, the Tesla and the motorcycle were very close, but now the Tesla is responsible for less CO2 for the same trip. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671/320 "2026-02-23T21:57:25Z")
If the breakeven point is less than two years, and a vaguely plausible source says cars stay on the road more than 16 years, or nearly 13 years, and we think that EVs will have a lifespan that’s not massively shorter than ICE cars, then EVs are breaking even. The fact that there are a ton of used EVs currently on the market, including a lot coming off 3-5 year leases, also indicates that EVs (in total, not every single car) are breaking even. I didn’t mean to imply i was making a precise calculation. Just pointing out that “it takes between one and two years to pay back the greater cost of making it” is not a reason to be concerned about EVs. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-us-ev-market-dead/1027671.md?page=17)