Is the US EV market dead?

In My Humble Opinion
21

I don’t post here much, but I thought this was a generally liberal place. It just seems like a mostly American audience is sucking up Big Oil talking points like water!

BEVs drive better and have more acceleration than ICE cars and even traditional hybrids. My late parents’ 2005 Prius was a dog. My Volt PHEV has great pickup and my husband’s eGolf BeV is truly perky.

BEVs are also nearly maintenance free. Think of all the parts that make a gas/ICE car run that aren’t even present in BEVs. Even in my Volt, regen braking means less wear-and-tear on the brakes. My oil changes are once every 2 years because I drive on gas so seldom.

And there’s the cliche about people in the suburbs. Even folks in rural areas don’t drive 50 miles each way to buy groceries. So much emphasis is placed on road trips, when road trips don’t happen very often. Still, we’re eyeing a 2026 Nissan Leaf with about 280 miles of electric range, and I can’t think of a lot of road trips where that’s gonna be a problem. Charging to 80% of the battery is supposed to take about 35 minutes, and after hours of driving I’d consider a 35 minute break a good thing. Most new BEVs now take the Tesla charging standard, and there are plenty of Tesla superchargers around.

Sure, the US is falling behind in EV development in the age of Trump:

  • He’s trying to block more investment in charging stations
  • People love their giant SUVs (I blame American car makers for that)
  • No chance of Chinese EVs here anytime soon, even though they’re prevalent in Canada, Mexico, Australia, and Europe. Google Ford’s CEO’s impressions of how good they are. It’s scary
  • And of course, I agree that US automakers are in trouble. Not because of BEVs, but because they’ve allowed China in particular to gain a worldwide advantage.

But for the rest of us with convenient at-home charging options, recognize that your fear of EVs might have a little something to do with Big Oil messaging, and your own fear of the unknown.

22

Toyota, Nissan and others make them- it is two ideas-
The idea that they are safer- sometimes in a head on crash vs another smaller car. Rare.

And of course- penis extensions.

In Europe, Chinese EVs account for around 10% of EV sales. Hardly any Chinese EVs in Canada, in fact none coming in until this spring, now that tariffs are down. So NOT prevalent in Europe or Canada. Quite a few in Mexico and Australia, tho.

Note that 90% of them transmit their data back to China. There are also lots of safety concerns of poor camera image clarity, loud radar alerts, inaccurate voice recognition, and unresponsive touchscreens and some fatal collisions involving specific models, have raised concerns about battery safety.

During the summer out here, we cant afford to change EVs at home- unless you have good solar.

Right.

23

Quoting for truth. As long as politicians continue to listen to the oil lobby, EVs and renewable energy will always suffer from FUD in the US. All of the current regime’s battle against renewables and EVs are just gifts for oil companies.

This is a complicated one, but due to loopholes and carveouts in various taxes and tariffs, big vehicles are more profitable, so of course the automakers emphasize big vehicles. Then they blame the consumers for wanting big vehicles. Some three row EVs have been on the market for a while (Rivian R1S, Tesla X and Y (properly optioned)), and there are more coming.

Unless this is just hyperbole, I’d like to see some numbers backing it up.

24

This. EVs are the future and America very clearly not the future, we are in sharp decline.

25

In CA, the more electricity you use, the higher rates you pay. $500 was not uncommon during the heat wave months.

The average for the whole state-over the year is $240 a month=

The statewide average monthly electric bill sits at $240, a figure that’s a direct result of California’s sky-high electricity rates and our unique energy consumption habits. Digging a little deeper, this breaks down to an average electricity price of $0.33 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), with a typical household using about 729 kWh each month.

But here’s the thing: calling that a statewide “average” can be pretty misleading. A homeowner in foggy, temperate San Francisco is going to have a much different bill than someone in sunny Southern California, where running the air conditioning all summer is non-negotiable.

Indeed, during the cooler months, since there is just the two of us and the cats, our bill is less than that. But during the summer, we have had $300 bills, which is tough on a fixed income.

26

Sales of the EV Lightning did not meet Ford’s goals, and apparently the reduced range while towing or carrying a load became a turn-off for buyers; Ford sometimes wound up selling the trucks at a loss. They have, AFAICT, ceased production of the current version of the truck, and this is its last model year.

Ford’s next-generation electric pickup truck will no longer be a pure EV. Ford has announced that the next one (date TBD, I think) will be an “Extended Range Electric Vehicle,” with a gasoline motor which will solely be used to charge the batteries (rather than providing drivetrain power), to extend its range. It’s not clear to me if that will be badged a Lightning, or something else.

https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/ford-f-150-lightning-is-dead-next-one-needs-these-changes.html

27

I see, thanks for clarification!

28

Reading the text of the article you link to tells a slightly more complex story:

The article describes how sales jumped up in Q3 2025, undoubtedly because both buyers and dealers were eager to get EVs sold before the subsidy expired, and that made 2025’s annual numbers look good. Sales dropped dramatically in Q4, and it remains to be seen if they will bounce back without the subsidies.

29

At our current rate of production, it would take something like 100 years to replace all of the ICE powered passenger vehicles in America with EVs. Production is limited by battery availability, and battery availability is limited (in part) to lithium availability. We’re not doing enough to incentivize increased production, and we’re being outcompeted by China so we can’t even really take advantage of other countries’ investments.

On top of that, new cars in general are becoming a luxury item. The average new car price has been outpacing inflation for (I think) decades, loan lengths have been increasing for longer, and interest rates are bad. In response, automakers are ditching affordable models left and right, targeting the only class of consumers able to afford their product in the first place.

This is why demand is flat. If we don’t increase supply artificially, there’s not enough demand to bring prices down, and the market stays small.

30

This is a number that can be worked with. All the others about average cost per month don’t mean anything. How much do those households spend on gas per month?

So my car gets about 270 Wh/mile which works out to 27 kWh to drive 100 miles. Which at the average price in CA would cost $8.91 in electricity. AAA says the average gas price in CA is $4.57/gallon. Lets just say that for the same cost it takes to drive an EV 100 miles you can buy 2 gallons of gas. So for a gas car to break even with an EV it needs to get 50 mpg.

50 mpg cars exist, but saying that it’s too expensive to drive an EV in California is no different than saying it’s too expensive to drive a 20 mpg SUV or truck. At least with the EV, you can spend $15k on solar, and never have to buy gas again.

My calculations say that $15k on solar is 16,000 mile of driving an EV to break even. That same $15k would buy you 3,333 gallons of gas, which might get you 100,000 miles. Not too bad, but $15k in solar will also get you 100,000 miles of EV driving, and 200,000 miles of EV driving…

31

Yeah the claim is way off, beyond your numbers even. Further add in that most with EVs can time their charging to off peak rates, and that gas prices spike in the summer … an EV in CA during summer costs a mere fraction to fuel compared to fueling a similarly size and powered ICE vehicle.

To the OP: the death of the American EV market has been exaggerated.

Globally sales continued to increase in 2025 and domestically it was the second best sales year on record. Trump’s effort stalled the sequential year on year rapid increases in adoption, but boy, one year of 4% less sales is not a funeral. It is a blip.

No question the American auto industry is having a hard time of it though, and the current trade environment makes it even harder. Transition periods are tough. They haven’t found their footing to put it mildly. But longer term EV sales will increase, whether or not the big US car makers lead the space.

32

As to the posters in this thread, you have confused what we want to have happen with what we predict will happen.

Most of us her are predicting a cratering of the USA’s EV production, sales, and adoption. Largely for the political / FUD reasons you cite. Most of us want a thriving EV market, ever wider adoption, and successful production and sales by US-based manufacturers.

Don’t get those confused.

33

I just retired from the auto industry in August and was working full time on developing EV’s for the US market, the car makers know that the public wants EV’s. But once Trump was elected and it became clear that he was going to shut down all support for EV tax credits and support for infrastructure development it became clear that it would not be profitable to make them here.

China controls not just the raw materials to produce state of the art batteries and magnets needed to produce EV’s, they also control the manufacturing of finished goods such as magnets. The actual production of these is horribly environmentally toxic, but China doesn’t care if they poison their country in the name of progress. So when Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese goods it slammed the door on any possibility of the US being able to complete in the market.

The car manufacturers know what Americans want, but they have to make a profit to provide it.

I’m convinced that Trump knows that global warming is real and is counting on profiting from the polar ice caps melting.

34

I take issue with some of your post, and to make my point I’ll compare 2 cars I know well: the Tesla Model 3 Performance and the BMW M3. The M3 has led its performance sedan segment for decades despite the efforts of Audi, Cadillac, Maserati, Mercedes Benz, etc.

First, your (possibly hyperbolic?) claim that batteries make EVs twice as heavy. They do add weight, but the Tesla’s 4046 pounds is no where near double the BMW’s 3929 pounds, I doubt many Americans care about such a small weight difference when they prefer trucks and SUVs over sedans.

I can’t fathom why ICE proponents bring up battery fires as if most vehicles don’t contain gallons of flammable liquid. Also, battery fires can be hard to extinguish, but they don’t become bombs.

As for your comment that EVs could go from worse to better, I’ll again compare the M3 vs the Model 3 Performance:

Comfort/noise: Tesla

Features: Tesla

Performance: tie

Range: BMW

Reliability: Tesla

Maintenance: Tesla

Clearly the Tesla is the better car and can be had for $60, while the BMW costs $85k.

35

My take on it is that Detroit and everyone else moved too soon. They saw Tesla making a lot of waves and getting a lot of hype, and they dove in before the infrastructure or technology was where it needs to be to make EVs competitive in the US automobile market. It wasn’t a governmental problem, but a misread of the market.

As I see it, EVs have a long way to go before they approach the convenience of gas vehicles. Right now, if you drive a gas vehicle or hybrid, you can drive your 400 miles (more or less) per tank of gas, refill in 5 minutes, and be on your merry way. Possibly with snacks and drinks from the gas station. What do you have with a EV? You can charge it overnight, but it takes something like eight hours straight, and when you go out in the wider world, charging stations may be faster, but they are dramatically farther and fewer between. They’re often not convenient, and the locations that are there are often one or two car stations, so you may or may not be able to charge there when you choose. And they’re in weird places- hospitals, YMCAs, office buildings, etc… where you may or may not be able to park yourself for 30 minutes to an hour to charge it.

I think until the EV range and charging availability rival gasoline, or something (higher prices, taxation) makes gasoline less convenient, EVs have a uphill climb in the US.

Hybrids on the other hand are fantastic. What the government needs to do however, is legislate that hybrids have to be tuned for efficiency rather than power. By that, I mean that what a lot of manufacturers are doing now is plunking down a hybrid drivetrain in order to claw back decent mileage from ridiculously powered vehicles, rather than deliver normal power and exceptional mileage.

We’d do well as a country to dive into hybrids hard, and from there, transition into EVs. We don’t have the same situation as a lot of European countries that allow greater adoption of EVs, and nor do we have the level of government control that allows China to mandate adoption. So the next best thing is hybrids, with a bit of a governmental tweak to force more mileage, rather than economical-ish power.

36

I can’t reiterate enough how true this is. I have a Nissan Leaf, the cheapest EV on the US market, and it’s a few years old now, a 2023, with about 30,000 miles. I can beat any ICE vehicle out of a stoplight-- any pick-up, SUV, or sportscar. Actually, I can also beat any hybrid or very old EV. I’ve never tried to beat a new Tesla, or Volt or anything.

I also know that I can rush yellow lights if I’m running late for work. I can see in my rearview mirror that I made it. I don’t do it very often, because it’s not safe, and I have to watch for cars turning left on yellow; BUT I never dared do that in an ICE car, because I never had one I trusted to make it.

37

This is a barrier for some portion of the buying public, but I’ll submit it’s much smaller than most people think. First of all, many of us take exactly zero trips per year over 400 miles. So, for many, it’s simply not an issue. Second, two years ago we took a 10-day trip up and down the west coast, primarily to test the convenience of long trips with an EV (and visit family in Oregon and California). If it matters, it was a Tesla Model X. It was easy and fun, and the charging was only slightly less convenient than filling up with gas. We charged while we ate a meal, or checked emails, or stopped for the night. I can honestly say, given the choice of a 2000 mile gas car trip and a 2000 mile EV trip, I’d choose the EV every time. [other regions of the USA may be less conducive to charging, I don’t know)

38

This may be true, but I strongly suspect that a lot of people who don’t frequently drive long distances still think, “well, even if I don’t usually drive far, I might want to or need to someday, and I’m not sure than I can easily do that with an EV.” Doubt has been placed in their minds, and even if it’s uniformed doubt, it’s still there.

39

We’re in the hottest part of Los Angeles. Our electric bills are reasonable for 2 reasons:

  • LA DWP provides reasonable rates. We’re a mile from Edison-land and paying much less. I think we’re paying around 18-20 cents per KWH. We run the AC all summer and don’t have rooftop solar like many of our neighbors, and we can still afford our electric cars!
  • We and other utility customers have time-of-use rates: most expensive in the middle of the afternoon, least overnight. We can set our cars to charge overnight rather than midday, though now that we’re retired we don’t usually bother. Ironically, TOU rates are mistimed relative to electricity generation given that most of the solar generation happens midday.

California electricity rates can’t be generalized at all. Sure we pay a lot to run our AC during the summer, but that has nothing to do with our EVs.

40

I just could not let this go..

  1. EV’s are 10% -30% heavier than equivalent ICE vehicles. There is no EV that is “double the weight of and ICE vehicle”

  2. EV’s do require “hours and hours to charge” if you are charging on a regular 15 amp circuit. It’s pretty easy to put in a level 2 charger to your home (30 amp, same as a dryer). Cuts this time down. Fast charging an Ioniq 5 takes About 68 minutes to charge from 10% to 80% at a 50kW charger. New fast chargers are now being installed at 350kW, which cuts that time down to 17 minutes. Minutes, not hours. This is technology that currently exists and is being installed.

  3. Regenerative braking is not “annoying” and I have not heard any EV owners stating this opinion

  4. Complaints about how the door handle look is just silly.

  5. Batteries are not a “chemical bomb”, this is just provocative language used to excite.
    Yes, an EV battery fire is not a good thing. Neither is a fire fueled by 20 gallons of gasoline.
    And multiple reports say that ICE cars are about 20 times more likely to catch on fire.