# Is the war between Israel and just about everyone else in the region likely to spoil the U.S. election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [October 16, 2024, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857 "2024-10-16T09:16:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/21 "2024-10-16T19:27:53Z")
> [@Jasmine](#): > > > [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](#): > > > > But I’m gravely concerned the conflict may turn out to spoil the upcoming election in favor of Trump, just as the Vietnam War may have done in favor of Nixon. > > This idea that Trump will help Palestine, the Arab nations, and Muslims in general is just such a total joke as to defy all reason. The huge, fanatical block of Trump voters are the fanatical religious right. They are, in fact, the Christian version of the Taliban as far as I’m concerned. They hate and fear Muslims so much that they don’t even want a mosque in their communities. Do people actually believe that Trump would do anything to threaten that voting block by helping Palestine? > > :SNIP: From reading about Arab American voters, particularly in Michigan, they are not so naive as to think Trump will help the Palestinian people in any way. The way I’ve heard it framed is that Republicans and Democrats are equally bad for Palestine/Gaza because they support arming Israel. The only difference they see is that Democrats feel guilty about it. There are very few that would be foolish enough to vote for DJT. They will mostly sit it out or vote 3rd party as a protest. Harris will likely lose MI and thus the election if things are as close as they actually appear in the polls. I see the difference between the parties as the Democrats will work to get both sides to implement a ceasefire while DJT will give Israel permission to kill every man, woman and child in Gaza if they so choose. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/22 "2024-10-16T20:40:50Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > The far left feels like they’re the legitimate heirs of American power. They have delusions that they represent an invisible/unrepresented majority. But American voters keep demonstrating via popular voting pattern that they want liberalism. I would disagree with this. I don’t think that they have delusions that they represent a silent majority, I don’t think it matters to them whether they represent a majority or not. They think that they should be able to dictate policy because they are objectively and morally right. Threatening Democrats with the possibility of a Trump presidency is their way blackmailing the party into acceding to their demands despite representing a minority. Either way the rest of your post still stands. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/23 "2024-10-16T20:48:35Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > “pro-Palestine” voices - like [David Duke](https://www.newsweek.com/former-kkk-leader-david-duke-endorses-jill-stein-trashes-donald-trump-1969710) 🙄 I’m pretty sure that David Duke wasn’t going to be voting for Harris under any circumstances, so I don’t see any reason to bring him up in this discussion about Democrats potentially changing their voting pattern based on the situation in Gaza. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/24 "2024-10-16T20:51:56Z")
> [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](#): > > So what say you? Is the peace vote (or non-vote), going to sink Harris? Or are the numbers not big enough to make a difference? I asked a question in [Exactly what can Biden do in Gaza?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/exactly-what-can-biden-do-in-gaza/1008566) and more or less it came out- Biden could violate the law as trump did, but other than that, Biden couldnt really do anything more than he has. He has got the UN to pass two ceasefire resolutions, but Hamas rejected both. He could delay the shipment of arm, but not stop them, as Congress passes budget bills. So Biden is doing just about everything he can to get a ceasefire in Gaza. And if trump gets in, things ill only get worse- far worse. > [@OldOlds](#): > > And I suspect a significant number of them will be either voting R, or not voting this year, because Biden hasn’t been sufficiently all-in on Israel’s actions. Not all American Jews support Netanyahu. And they know trump will only make things worse. > [@snowthx](#): > > Israel is already invading and bombing a sovereign country as well as being bombed by another sovereign country, You mean Lebanon? Calling Lebanon a “sovereign country” is stretching the point, and Lebanon attacked Israel first. Rockets fired indiscriminately into civilian targets. > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > They will mostly sit it out or vote 3rd party as a protest. Which in effect, will cause trump to win. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/25 "2024-10-16T20:59:42Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > You mean Lebanon? Calling Lebanon a “sovereign country” is stretching the point, and Lebanon attacked Israel first. Rockets fired indiscriminately into civilian targets. I’ll report myself and take my warning: Is there no fucking end to the ignorant stupidity that oozes out of your brain. GAH. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/26 "2024-10-16T21:44:15Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > And a significant number of Jews will be voting for Harris because of who Trump reminds them of. I think the net result will be a wash, and there’s just not that many Jews vs the rest of the population to make much difference. To put some data to this mostly correct contention. > **[Exclusive: In new poll, US Jews say Trump more supportive of Israelis but...](https://forward.com/news/664087/harris-trump-poll-jewish-voters-israel-gaza/?amp=1)** > > New poll: Jewish voters say Kamala Harris would handle Israel-Hamas war better than Donald Trump, but say he's more supportive of Israelis. Apparently in aggregate American Jews feel Trump is more solidly pro Israel AND overwhelmingly prefer Harris on the Israel Gaza issue. A few are pushed off from though. She is _slightly_ behind where Biden and Clinton had been. But not much. Amazingly Jews are divided on the issue! Enough so that this Yom Tov our rabbi’s sermon was about allowing each other the space to disagree. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/27 "2024-10-16T22:02:57Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Apparently in aggregate American Jews feel Trump is more solidly pro Israel AND overwhelmingly prefer Harris on the Israel Gaza issue. As an American Jew I agree with this apparent contradiction. Trump is “more solidly” pro-Israel because he’ll unthinkingly back any atrocities current Israeli leadership can inflict on Gaza. But nearly all the Jews I know think Harris will do a better job – as far as anything is possible – of keeping the conflict from becoming worse than it already is. And that’s to the long-term benefit of both Israel and the Palestinians. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/28 "2024-10-16T22:12:20Z")
Yeah, Trump seems to think that saying “Israel right or wrong! Go Netanyahu!” is supposed to lock in the Jewish vote but darn it, they keep acting like they’re individual people with minds of their own! ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/29 "2024-10-16T22:21:09Z")
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**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/30 "2024-10-16T22:22:38Z")
You are banned from this thread. Combined with trolling statements in the Empire thread and this trolling statement: > [@DrDeth](#): > > You mean Lebanon? Calling Lebanon a “sovereign country” is stretching the point, and Lebanon attacked Israel first. Rockets fired indiscriminately into civilian targets. You are suspended until midnight tomorrow. I will probably be bumping this up to the modloop also. **Moderating:** ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/31 "2024-10-16T22:24:42Z")
**Moderating:** This is not a reply allowed in P&E, but as @DrDeth has been virtually trolling the board in the last 2 days, I will let you off with a stern mod note. Do not do this again. Take it to the Pit if you want. Flag the troll-like posts, but don’t let him set you off to get a warning. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/32 "2024-10-16T22:52:39Z")
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**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/33 "2024-10-17T10:40:59Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Not all American Jews support Netanyahu. And they know trump will only make things worse. I never said they do. But when (per my link) the overwhelming majority of Jews in the US already vote D, the only direction it can move in is less D. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/34 "2024-10-17T13:37:23Z")
As far as that goes mostly correct. Biden and Clinton got 68 to 70% of “the Jewish vote” and given the diverse opinions within that population it is hard to imagine doing much better than that. The bit of disagreement is this: > [@OldOlds](#): > > And I suspect a significant number of them will be either voting R, or not voting this year, because Biden hasn’t been sufficiently all-in on Israel’s actions. At about 2% of the population, I honestly don’t know how big that impact will be. Nah. A few yes, but your suspicion of a significant number is unsupported. The majority do not want to see “all-in on Israel’s actions”. And the small fraction that is both unhappy and single issue who were not already in the 30ish percent that voted Trump before are such a small percent of a small percent as to of little election impact. I won’t say none though. PA has a relatively large Jewish population, 5%. That’s big enough that a shift of the margin by 5% would potentially be 0.25% of the vote, and in knife edge circumstance that could be decisive. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/35 "2024-10-17T18:28:37Z")
This must be being discussed somewhere on the board, but as I wanted to comment mostly on its possible effect on the election, I’ll put it here: > [@](#): > > The Israeli military confirmed on Thursday that [Hamas leader Yahya Sinwa](https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/07/middleeast/yahya-sinwar-profile-intl/index.html)r, believed by Israel to be chief architect of the militant group’s deadly October 7, 2023, terror attack that set off the war in Gaza, had been killed in battle. … The immediate comment most observers seem to be making is along the lines of ‘_this is so huge that it COULD be an off-ramp for Netanyahu to declare himself open to negotiations for cease-fire–and most importantly, return of the hostages_.’ But of course if that were to happen in the near future, it would NOT advantage Trump. And Netanyahu would prefer to have Trump win (since Trump is so easy to manipulate). So now we wait to see what excuse Netanyahu comes up with to explain why he must continue bombing Gaza into oblivion. (I hope Donald is properly grateful to him.) > **[Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar killed in Gaza, Israeli military says | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/17/middleeast/israel-hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar-gaza-intl/index.html)** > > The Israeli military confirmed on Thursday that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the chief architect of the militant group’s deadly October 7, 2023, terror attack that set off the war in Gaza, had been killed in battle. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/36 "2024-10-17T18:35:08Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > The immediate comment most observers seem to be making is along the lines of ‘_this is so huge that it COULD be an off-ramp for Netanyahu to declare himself open to negotiations for cease-fire–and most importantly, return of the hostages_.’ What on Earth are you talking about? Netanyahu has been open to negotiating with Hamas. Hamas has not been willing to come to the table unless Israel preemptively agrees to fully pull out of Gaza. When Hamas is ready to actually negotiate a deal, Israel has always been willing. Here’s hoping Sinwar’s successor is more open to negotiation than Sinwar was. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/37 "2024-10-17T18:42:35Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Here’s hoping Sinwar’s successor is more open to negotiation than Sinwar was. Yes, Sinwar was notorious for being the (alleged) roadblock for every attempt to bring the hostages home. Which is part of why observers are talking about the opportunity this now gives Netanyahu to be the man to get the hostages freed. My comment was about the unlikelihood of him being willing to do something that would help Democrats. (Not that the US election is Netanyahu’s top concern by a long shot—but it’s reasonable to believe he does prefer that Trump get in.) As for your assertions that Netanyahu has been “open to negotiating” and your implication that 100% of the problem has been Hamas: I’d guess that most experts on the matter would be skeptical. Most, I’d feel confident betting, would say that there has been obstruction, at various times, from both sides. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/38 "2024-10-17T18:52:29Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Most, I’d feel confident betting, would say that there has been obstruction, at various times, from both sides. I’m sure that there are very fine people on both sides. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/39 "2024-10-17T19:04:52Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I’m sure that there are very fine people on both sides. So saying that Netanyahu may not have prioritized the welfare of the hostages, turns the speaker into Trump? Good luck with that claim. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857/40 "2024-10-17T19:11:30Z")
If for whatever reason (new Hamas leadership more open, whatevs) a ceasefire suddenly emerges from this, yes it would help Harris. Bibi’s motivations are outside this thread’s subject I suspect. I don’t think even a sudden ceasefire would change much at this point though. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-the-war-between-israel-and-just-about-everyone-else-in-the-region-likely-to-spoil-the-u-s-election/1008857.md?page=3)