# Is there a baseline we can agree on to keep DJT out of the white house? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 1, 2024, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548 "2024-07-01T02:10:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/1 "2024-07-01T02:10:06Z")
Floated this in a [different thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/345), and believe it deserves it’s own thread. Let’s establish a baseline please. I think we’re all on the same side. I am deliberately looking to find basics we all agree on, and avoiding drawing conclusions or poisoning the well. Can we agree on the following (or propose what critical points are missing): 1. The ONLY thing that matters is preventing DJT from a second term. Anything else is secondary, agreed? 2. The core never trumper base (dems, repubs and everyone else) will vote for anyone on the Democratic ticket who’s name is not DJT, agreed? 3. This and all elections are decided primarily by who turns out the vote, agreed? 4. in 2024, the swing voter turnout is based on getting younger voters, protecting the right to choose, double haters, and undecideds out to the polls, agreed? (This assumes that these demographics will vote in higher % for the dem candidate than DJT) 5. Who ever leads the ticket has to be able to access the national DNC and Biden/Harris fundraising so as to be in compliance with election spending rules (and avoid starting fund raising from zero), agreed? Does the above net out the baseline (or is something critical missing)? Please grit your teeth and get the baseline hashed out before we try find common ground on the conclusion. Thanks for playing! ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/2 "2024-07-01T02:20:35Z")
(edit, I misread something) I could see a sizable chunk of Never-Trumpers still going 3rd party or not voting, but I think the “core” is correct in Point 2. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/3 "2024-07-01T02:23:02Z")
Agreed on all points except 2. ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/4 "2024-07-01T02:25:51Z")
I am not certain of 3 myself. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/5 "2024-07-01T02:32:07Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Agreed on all points except 2. For clarification please. Are you saying that there is a significant number of voters, who would have voted for their preferred Dem candidate, that will not come out to vote if it is someone else? In other words, there is a significant number of voters that will stay home if their anyone but DJT preferred candidate isn’t on the Dem ballot? ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/6 "2024-07-01T02:39:54Z")
I’d take it as maybe there are Never-Trumpers who interpret that as they’re _never_ going to vote for him, not that they’re necessarily always going to vote _against_ him. I kind of feel like maybe there’s some excluded middle where maybe they don’t like DJT, but they’re not wild about Biden either, and are sitting the fence because to them, it’s the choice of the lesser evil. I mean, a lot of Biden’s policies and expenditures weren’t universally popular, even when you throw out the die-hard Red types. So if you’ve got someone who doesn’t like Trump because he lies constantly, etc… but doesn’t like Biden because he spends money like crazy (and that’s not something they like), then how are they going to vote? I feel like there needs to be more education about _why_ Trump is still the worse choice in that situation. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/7 "2024-07-01T03:01:29Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > For clarification please. Are you saying that there is a significant number of voters, who would have voted for their preferred Dem candidate, that will not come out to vote if it is someone else? If Biden drops out, the fight to replace him is likely going to be acrimonious and will cause a lot of bad feeling among supporters of whoever doesn’t get the nod. I’m not saying people are going to sit out because Biden isn’t on the ballot, but if, say, Whitmer gets the nod, there will likely be supporters of Harris and Newsom and who knows who else who are mad that their guy didn’t get the nod and will blame party insiders for choosing the wrong person (which they will be justified in believing) and choose to sit it out, and there simply isn’t going to be time for that nominee to rally the party around them. Think Bernie bros refusing to vote for Hillary on a much larger scale. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/8 "2024-07-01T03:05:09Z")
> [@SuntanLotion](#): > > I am not certain of 3 myself. “never trumper” is maybe loaded language. This point is more or less covered by point 4 without the baggage of “never trumper.” For clarification, when I wrote “never trumper” it was universal and not in the Republican sense. My bad. It included anyone, regardless of political affiliation or non-affiliation that would vote for a small soap dish vs DJT to deny him a second term. I’ll amend the list when there is a broad consensus of where we all agree. Then we can split hairs and debate endlessly on the right choice based on reality and the agreed baseline. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/9 "2024-07-01T03:07:19Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > If Biden drops out, the fight to replace him is likely going to be acrimonious and will cause a lot of bad feeling among supporters of whoever doesn’t get the nod. I’m not saying people are going to sit out because Biden isn’t on the ballot, but if, say, Whitmer gets the nod, there will likely be supporters of Harris and Newsom and who knows who else who are mad that their guy didn’t get the nod and will blame party insiders for choosing the wrong person (which they will be justified in believing) and choose to sit it out, and there simply isn’t going to be time for that nominee to rally the party around them. Think Bernie bros refusing to vote for Hillary on a much larger scale. Fair, but for the purposes of this thread, let’s agree to the baseline. _Then_ we can cage match or have an honest debate about who best meets the baseline, the gotchas, the potential pitfalls. We cool? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/10 "2024-07-01T04:28:26Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > Fair, but for the purposes of this thread, let’s agree to the baseline. I don’t agree that you can swap Biden for Generic Democrat and expect people to vote for him, though. ---
**Author:** ![Sylvanz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/fbc32d/32.png) [@Sylvanz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sylvanz)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/11 "2024-07-01T05:08:10Z")
Bingo. It’s a fantasy. I cannot agree with that point of your baseline. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/12 "2024-07-01T05:21:18Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > The ONLY thing that matters is preventing DJT from a second term. Anything else is secondary, agreed? …there are many voters who have been personally affected by foreign policy decisions made by the President and his administration, and many more who stand in solidarity with them. So the “anything else is secondary” line isn’t going to work for them. If Biden remains President, they will simply sit the next election out and play whatever cards is dealt them. What they want, though, is for Biden to be gone. There are no circumstances where they will vote for him. Their baseline for voting for the Democrats is Biden to not be the nominee. > [@China\_Guy](#): > > in 2024, the swing voter turnout is based on getting younger voters, protecting the right to choose, double haters, and undecideds out to the polls, agreed? And if getting younger voters out to vote for you, then the way the Biden administration has supported the vicious crackdown on protest and dissent is absolutely the wrong way to go about it. > [@NPR](#): > > The survey, exclusively obtained by NPR, which was conducted from May 10-22, polled the political attitudes of 2,089 Americans under 40, with largely equal samples of white, Black, Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) individuals. > > It found that just one-third of all young Americans said they would back Biden if the election was held at the time the survey was conducted. The poll also reflects a virtual tie in the race. Biden leads former President Donald Trump by just two points, and 34% of respondents are currently backing a third-party candidate or said they would support “someone else.” > **[After backing him in 2020, a new poll shows some young voters are Biden's to...](https://www.npr.org/2024/06/05/nx-s1-4987296/young-voters-biden-gaza-inflation-abortion-trump-genforward-poll)** > > Four years ago, President Biden overwhelmingly won among Gen Z and millennial voters, and within that group, voters of color led that support for him. But now — a new poll from the University of Chicago, exclusively obtained by NPR, finds that the... If the swing voter turnout is based on getting younger voters…you (as in the Biden campaign) are _screwed_. Its not about keeping DJT out of the Whitehouse. That’s a _losing_ strategy. It worked at the last election. But its not going to work this time. The base is divided. You aren’t ever going to be able to bring them all on board. As I said in the other thread the focus needs to switch to winning the states that matter, holding the senate, winning the house. Biden isn’t going to bring everyone together and it’s time to stop pretending that by some miracle, he will. Its the problem with having a baseline. When there are states where the right to abortion is gone, where Democrats are campaigning to make it illegal to wear a mask, where “liberal” colleges are inviting police onto campus to smash protests, where voter suppression is rampant and even if they wanted to vote its getting harder and harder to do it, why do you think you can bring everyone together? Where is the hope? Where is the plan? What is the strategy? I shared a tweet from the President in the other thread where he said “if he won, he’d bring back Roe vs Wade.” Based on the performance of the last four years, can anyone believe that? Because you need a decisive majority in the Senate and to win the House to do that. So what’s the deal here? Keep DJT out and all these bad things continue to happen? A baseline isn’t enough. For starters you need a reason for people to _vote for you_. And if you promise to bring back Roe vs Wade then you better have an actionable plan to do so. To put it in perspective, if I did have a vote, I wouldn’t give it to Biden. I’d sit the next election out. Because not everything else is secondary. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/13 "2024-07-01T05:21:58Z")
Let’s be clear. there is a significant group of voters that agree mission 1 is preventing Trump from being elected, correct? Then, out of that same group of voters of mission 1 voters, a significant outcome altering group will sit out the election if Biden is not on the ticket, correct? To say another way, this group will not hold their nose for a generic Dem replacement. Instead, they would prefer that DJT is re-elected. Is this what you are saying? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/14 "2024-07-01T05:31:19Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > Then, out of that same group of voters of mission 1 voters, a significant outcome altering group will sit out the election if Biden is not on the ticket, correct? To say another way, this group will not hold their nose for a generic Dem replacement. Instead, they would prefer that DJT is re-elected. Is this what you are saying? I am saying that “He isn’t Trump” isn’t going to be good enough for some people. If it was, President Clinton would be winding down her second term right about now. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/15 "2024-07-01T05:32:10Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > A baseline isn’t enough. For starters you need a reason for people to _vote for you_. And if you promise to bring back Roe vs Wade then you better have an actionable plan to do so. Fair point. Can add in a baseline item for “reason to vote for the Dem candidate”. Which I agree with. One is _against_ DJT, and a second is a reason _for_ the Dem. platform Again, we can debate these, but we’re shouting at each other and pissing in the wind if there is no agreement on a few key basics. And, clarification please, is your message that there is a significant voting block that _won’t_ vote for Biden, but _could_ vote for a different Dem leader with a message they agree with? ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/16 "2024-07-01T05:40:35Z")
Baseline isn’t the word. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/17 "2024-07-01T06:00:58Z")
Was Bill Clinton my preferred choice in 1992? No, I preferred Paul Tsongas. But when Tsongas lost in the primaries, I acted like an adult and voted for Clinton in order to defeat Bush. Was Barack Obama my preferred in 2008? No, I preferred Hillary Clinton. But when Clinton lost in the primaries, I acted like an adult and voted for Obama in order to defeat McCain. (Well, mostly to defeat Palin.) Anybody who thinks a second Biden term would be as bad as a second Trump term is somebody whose political views do not deserve any respect. It’s time for people who wanted to be treated like adults to act like adults. That’s the baseline I will agree on. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 7:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/18 "2024-07-01T07:19:09Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > Where is the plan? What is the strategy? Here’s the plan, > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > a decisive majority in the Senate and to win the House Anything past that requires the first part. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/19 "2024-07-01T07:31:53Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > Anything past that requires the first part. …that isn’t a plan. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548/20 "2024-07-01T07:37:59Z")
In order for Democrats to accomplish anything meaningful in Washington, they either need a three-fifths majority in the Senate, which is not feasible because the Constitutional composition of the Senate is rotten to the degree of the British Parliament in the 1820s, or to abolish the filibuster. That means holding the presidency and at least 51 seats at the beginning of the next Senate (assuming that Fetterman is a no on abolishing the filibuster and everyone else is onboard.) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-baseline-we-can-agree-on-to-keep-djt-out-of-the-white-house/1003548.md?page=2)