# Is there a danger that Ukraine could eventually be overwhelmed by the vastly larger population of Russia? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 16, 2023, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695 "2023-12-16T16:07:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2023, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/61 "2023-12-17T23:20:21Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Imho there is a very definitive and final way for Ukraine to win this war. > > There must be _at least_ a 1000 retired F-16 pilots from International countries. Men who combat trained for decades and never saw war. Never fired a real missile at another plane. > > We’re sending billions in aid to Ukraine. > > Why not recruit F-16 pilots at 350k each? **Plus** 500k death payout for their families. These men were willing to fight and potentially die for a 75k Air Force pay check. > > I think many men would like to test their decades of training. Do I have what it takes at 48 years old? A lot of men would jump at the chance to leave money and college funding for their familes. > > @LSLGuy How long would it take a experienced F-16 pilot to get checked out on a plane? Build a squadron, fly formations, and practice aerial combat manuevers? Maybe 4 to 6 months? > > 500 F-16’s would be superior to Russia’s Air Force. > > They’re trying to push inexperienced Ukrainians into these cockpits. They can’t compete against a man with 2000 flight hours in a F-16. > > Give Ukraine air superiority and Russian ground troops will have to withdraw. I don’t think there is one magic bullet (so to speak) in terms of a weapons platform that will win any war. F16s require complex logistics chains and vast armies of maintenance support to keep them flying. Not to mention a constant influx of missiles and bombs. A greater danger than running out of people IMHO is falling behind Russian production of artillery shells and missiles. Where Russia has been ramping up production, NATO and the West have been falling behind. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/62 "2023-12-18T00:38:38Z")
I created this thread primarily for these developments. This is bad, very, very bad. Is Prime Minister Viktor Orban deep into Putin’s pocket? Or is he an attention seeking prima donna? Maybe Both? Of course Hungary’s political interests don’t fully align with Ukraine. But it seems there’s something personal about this vote to block aid. Link [Ukraine may lose war in summer if military aid from America and EU dried up, US official says](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/17/ukraine-lose-war-summer-us-eu-military-aid-ends/) > [@](#): > > [Ukraine](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/ukraine/) faces defeat as early as next summer if American and [Nato](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/nato/) military aid dries up, a senior US official has warned. > > Vladimir [Putin’s chances of victory](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/09/putins-russia-is-closing-in-on-devastating-victory/) have been buoyed by war fatigue and blocks on funding in both America and the EU. > > “There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us,” a senior US military source told CNN. > > [Viktor Orbán](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/15/orban-got-exactly-what-he-wanted-crunch-eu-summit-ukraine/), Hungary’s prime minister, last week blocked a £43 billion EU aid package for Ukraine. > > Austria had also threatened to block the bill until Kyiv toned down criticism of an Austrian bank still working in Russia. > > ## Western planners working on ‘worst-case scenario’ > > In the US, the Senate has held up a £48 billion military support bill for Ukraine and polls have shown that most Americans think that the US government is overspending in Ukraine. > > Western military planners are now working on a “worst-case scenario” of Ukraine without aid being defeated by Russia within a few months, according to CNN which a source described as a “disaster” for European security. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/63 "2023-12-18T01:10:05Z")
Orban, like the US Congress’s utterly misnamed “freedom caucus” are simply extortionists. They want something specific and don’t much care who else gets hurt on the way to getting their own narrow demands fulfilled. For enough cookies, the FC will permit a Ukraine support bill to pass the US House. For enough cookies, Orban will permit the EU support to pass. Right now the rest of US & EU officialdom is not giving in to their respective extortionists. But they might. Neither are they yet able to successfully bypass their resident extortionists. But they might. Meanwhile it’s causing sleepless nights in Kyiv for sure. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/64 "2023-12-18T01:57:09Z")
I think the danger is real. It also seems to me that Ukraine is unlikely to make any further meaningful territorial gains, even if we do get back to the level of support we were giving them before the Republicans in the House stopped the supply. What conclusions do I draw from these premises? I think it is time that Ukraine trades territory for peace. Not that Russia will agree. But NATO should. Draw the lines where they are currently, admit Ukraine as is in to NATO, and send NATO troops to defend the border. At this point I think that’s the best we can hope for. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/65 "2023-12-18T02:24:34Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Not that Russia will agree. I doubt Ukraine will, either. A year or two from now, maybe. But the sense I get from the rhetoric and pattern of ongoing combat is that Ukraine has not given up on winning the war. Which is to say, they have not yet concluded that… > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Ukraine is unlikely to make any further meaningful territorial gains, I also think it is premature to assume the war is lost. But my opinion is unimportant. Until Ukraine itself is willing to stand down this will grind on. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/66 "2023-12-18T02:29:32Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > I doubt Ukraine will, either. A year or two from now, maybe. But the sense I get from the rhetoric and pattern of ongoing combat is that Ukraine has not yet given up on the war. They have not yet concluded that… The impression I have from various articles I’ve read is that Zelensky is still hung-ho about the war, but many others, including Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko and General Zaluzhnyi are seeing things as having reached a stalemate. > **[Ukraine official accuses Zelensky of lying about the war](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-official-accuses-zelensky-lying-1849427)** > > Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko agreed with General Valerii Zaluzhnyi's assessment that the war had reached a "stalemate." ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/67 "2023-12-18T02:45:16Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > General Zaluzhnyi are seeing things as having reached a stalemate. Stalemate now, certainly. Still a stalemate in a year? Quite possibly, but we’ll see. [But you’re making the mistake of assuming stalemates are eternal.](https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/12/stalemate-is-not-checkmate-in-ukraine/) Just as one example the Allies were stalemated in Italy at multiple points before breaking through in WW II. Stalemates are common and often temporary affairs in long wars. I haven’t seen anything from Zaluzhnyi indicating he is contemplating throwing in the towel (though fair to say that is probably an impossible talking point at the moment anyway since “gung ho” Zelenskyy is his boss). Rather he has been making that point to argue for more support: To break the current stalemate in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Zaluzhnyi stressed the need for airpower to support large-scale ground operations, electronic warfare tools to negate Russian drones, counter-battery assets to overcome Russian artillery, mine-breaching technology, and training and other internal measures to increase Ukraine’s military manpower. (From the above article). ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/68 "2023-12-18T03:22:29Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > > > Ukraine is unlikely to make any further meaningful territorial gains, > > I also think it is premature to assume the war is lost. But my opinion is unimportant. Until Ukraine itself is willing to stand down this will grind on. I agree with @Tamerlane with one slight proposed addition … > I also think it is premature to assume the war is lost. But my opinion is unimportant. Until Ukraine itself is willing to stand down this will grind on. Or until the West kneecaps Ukraine by withdrawing significant military & economic support. Thereby leaving Ukraine perhaps willing, but unable, to continue the fight with meaningful vigor. And as I’ve noted in earlier posts my prediction today is that my insertion is what’s most likely to occur, and occur within the next 12 months. I wish that were not so, but I fear that it will go that way. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/69 "2023-12-18T07:23:41Z")
I know F-16’s have been promised by various countries. Ukraine pilots are training in various countries What happens as funding runs low? Planes without well equipped ground and security crews can’t fly. Missiles are expensive. It’s a bad time for the West to cut funding. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2023, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/70 "2023-12-18T14:00:45Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > > > General Zaluzhnyi are seeing things as having reached a stalemate. > > Stalemate now, certainly. Still a stalemate in a year? Quite possibly, but we’ll see. [But you’re making the mistake of assuming stalemates are eternal.](https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/12/stalemate-is-not-checkmate-in-ukraine/) Just as one example the Allies were stalemated in Italy at multiple points before breaking through in WW II. Stalemates are common and often temporary affairs in long wars. > > I haven’t seen anything from Zaluzhnyi indicating he is contemplating throwing in the towel (though fair to say that is probably an impossible talking point at the moment anyway since “gung ho” Zelenskyy is his boss). Rather he has been making that point to argue for more support: > > To break the current stalemate in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Zaluzhnyi stressed the need for airpower to support large-scale ground operations, electronic warfare tools to negate Russian drones, counter-battery assets to overcome Russian artillery, mine-breaching technology, and training and other internal measures to increase Ukraine’s military manpower. (From the above article). What I’ve been reading is that the war has become a technological stalemate, similar to WWI. Neither side can maintain air superiority and the proliferation of drones and satellite coverage means each side can basically continuously see what the other side is doing. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2023, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/71 "2023-12-19T16:54:26Z")
I think the Russians are holding out and hoping Trump and the Republicans win the election in 2024. They will cut off support for Ukraine and that will allow Russia to push for a favorable settlement which Putin can claim as a victory. Putin will then round up rivals, dissenters, and protestors and re-solidify his control of Russia. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2023, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/72 "2023-12-19T17:46:44Z")
Completely. And I think Putin thought Trump would win in 2020. Trump didn’t of course, but the wheels of war where already in motion, and Putin did it anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/73 "2023-12-21T15:29:16Z")
I’m still having a tough time telling what Putin is going to consider a “win”. He would have paid an enormous price to get only a small part of Ukraine. It would be like someone spending $800,000 to buy, not a house, but a _part_ of a house, while most of that house still belongs to someone else. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/74 "2023-12-21T15:53:15Z")
I’ve been baffled for quite awhile. Strategically, the obvious thing to do is negotiate a Russian withdrawal. They’d still have significantly more occupied land compared to 2014. Putin can thump his bare chest and declare a great victory for Mother Russia. Afterwards, Russia could intimidate Ukraine into falling in line with their policies and geopolitical interests. It seems so obvious and Putin can easily do it. No faction inside Russia would dare to oppose his decisions. Foolishly depleting the military for little new gains is a fools choice. But. that seems to be Putin’s plan. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/75 "2023-12-21T15:57:29Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > It would be like someone spending $800,000 to buy, not a house, but a _part_ of a house, while most of that house still belongs to someone else. Ukraine as a condo? Likely to be a heckuva monthly fee, and let’s not even think about the yearly owners’ meetings. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/76 "2023-12-21T20:30:47Z")
I’m sure Putin’s original goal was to annex all of Ukraine. But I believe Putin was smart enough to never publicly announce a specific goal. He left himself room to maneuver. He can take whatever settlement he is able to negotiate, retroactively announce it was Russia’s original pre-war goal, and thereby declare that he achieved a success. And problems that occurred along the way were due to protesters and political rivals. The question then becomes whether Putin can convince the Russian people of this narrative. I wouldn’t count him out. Putin controls the Russian media and police. And a lot of other Russian political figures are tied to Putin’s regime and will be worried that they might fall if Putin does. So they’ll back Putin as long as it looks like he has a chance of staying in power. The rats won’t leave the ship unless they’re pretty sure it’s going to sink. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2023, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/77 "2023-12-23T18:11:24Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I think the Russians are holding out and hoping Trump and the Republicans win the election in 2024. Agreed. And I think they will pull out all the stops to help ensure this will happen. Which will include calling in favors from all those politicians who are beholden to them financially through NRA funneled money, or via the usual honeytraps. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2023, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/78 "2023-12-29T17:14:44Z")
One hopes not. > **[How the Russian Government Silences Wartime Dissent](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/29/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-censorship.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Jk0.3c7R.rGmWMPwi25K5&hpgrp=c-abar&smid=url-share)** > > A law making it illegal to discredit Russia’s army has ensnared thousands of Russians for even mild acts or statements against the war. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/79 "2024-01-01T15:27:21Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You’ve been doom and gloom since the beginning, without evidence. He posted evidence in the very post you replied to. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695/80 "2024-01-01T15:53:50Z")
What evidence? Russia isn’t any closer to victory than they were 2 years ago. Recruiting challenges are about as much of a real news story in wartime as dog bites man. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-danger-that-ukraine-could-eventually-be-overwhelmed-by-the-vastly-larger-population-of-russia/994695.md?page=5)