# Is there a specific name for this fallacy? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [April 5, 2020, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128 "2020-04-05T14:14:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/1 "2020-04-05T14:14:35Z")
I’ve seen arguments that our response to Covid-19 is overblown because the total mortality (or some other metric) is similar to flu. These arguments leave out the fact that those mortality rates have only been achieved BECAUSE of our response. What’s the name of this informal fallacy? Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/2 "2020-04-05T14:41:52Z")
I know what you mean…a non-disaster would lead people to think it was all hype. But a name? A long time ago, maybe in an economics class, I heard “Lack of Corrective Feedback,” which kinda describes it. I just think of it as “terrible accounting.” If, at the end of this, we achieve a similar number of deaths to an average flu year, the “benefit” didn’t “cost” the same thing because we don’t all stay home for weeks (etc) when flu season hits. Better accounting: we could take Italy’s numbers. Of the closed cases, where an outcome has been determined, 42% have died and 58% have recovered. Or at press time, US Deaths:8,466, Recovered: 14,828. That’s 36%, not much better. With 312,000 cases and STILL counting in the US, if our system overloads we could be looking at 112,000-131,000. 61,000 flu deaths in 2017-2018 was the worst in recent history; 2011-2012 had “only” 12,000. [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/3 "2020-04-05T15:43:38Z")
Wait till there are a quarter million deaths. Most people are convinced that the whole hysteria over Y2K was highly overblown because nothing happened. But nothing happened **because** it was taken very seriously. A month ago, I heard an official say on the radio that his greatest hope was that after all the lockdowns and all, people would say it was all unnecessary because nothing happened. Of course, they are not saying that. How about calling it the “Nothing happened” fallacy. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/4 "2020-04-05T16:01:53Z")
[Stupidity.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-cPo1wqxD8) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/5 "2020-04-05T16:57:33Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > [Stupidity.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-cPo1wqxD8) > > Stranger Yeah. In this case, just a basic _ **false equivalency** _. A good part of the stupidity you hear takes that form. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/6 "2020-04-05T18:36:01Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **lobotomyboy63** : > > Better accounting: we could take Italy’s numbers. Of the closed cases, where an outcome has been determined, 42% have died and 58% have recovered. Define “cases”. I would have thought that a “case” would be a person who contracted the virus, but the numbers are vastly wrong for that, given that over half of people who catch the virus never show any symptoms at all from it. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/7 "2020-04-05T19:30:27Z")
It’s the inverse of the joke. “Clack these sticks together, they keep away zombies / mountain lions / etc” / “How do you know it works?” / “Well, have you seen any?” I don’t know what to call the fallacy either but yeah I’ve encountered it. “Feminism is unnecessary, cuz see, the girls these days have opportunities”. “Well, yeah, how do you suppose it got to be that way?” ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/8 "2020-04-05T19:47:59Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Define “cases”. I would have thought that a “case” would be a person who contracted the virus, but the numbers are vastly wrong for that, given that over half of people who catch the virus never show any symptoms at all from it. True. I went with “closed cases” to try for some semblance of apples to apples…if you DO catch it (verified) what are the odds you’ll survive? Plus when you look at the numbers you may think 330K cases, close to 9500 dead, that’s between 2-3%. However, over 300K cases are still “open.” They may recover or they may not. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/9 "2020-04-05T20:14:16Z")
Is this like that apocryphal story from WWI that said that when the British soldier switched from cloth caps to metal helmets, the army noticed a major increase in head injuries? ---
**Author:** ![MarMac83](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a5b964/32.png) [@MarMac83](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarMac83)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/10 "2020-04-05T21:09:46Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Is this like that apocryphal story from WWI that said that when the British soldier switched from cloth caps to metal helmets, the army noticed a major increase in head injuries? Explain that one in further detail. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/11 "2020-04-05T21:31:56Z")
Without metal, they wouldn’t get a head injury: they’d get a head _death_. Reminds me of another possibly apocryphal story where they decided to armor the parts of airplanes where he bullet holes on returning airplanes _weren’t_, since the parts where the bullet holes _were_ indicated survivable damage. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/12 "2020-04-05T21:32:40Z")
> [@MarMac83](#): > > Explain that one in further detail. The story goes that, once the British soldiers started wearing metal helmets, there was a noticeable increase in head injuries coming back from the battlefield. Which might lead one to conclude that helmets cause head injuries, when, in reality, most of those soldiers would in fact be dead if they had been wearing cloth hats. But, of course, fatalities are not head injuries, they are dead guys, and not a lot of time would have been put in to keeping track of the specific cause of death, so figuring out how many lives the helmets actually saved is a bit challenging. ---
**Author:** ![MarMac83](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a5b964/32.png) [@MarMac83](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarMac83)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/13 "2020-04-05T21:34:18Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > The story goes that, once the British soldiers started wearing metal helmets, there was a noticeable increase in head injuries coming back from the battlefield. Which might lead one to conclude that helmets cause head injuries, when, in reality, most of those soldiers would in fact be dead if they had been wearing cloth hats. But, of course, fatalities are not head injuries, they are dead guys, and not a lot of time would have been put in to keeping track of the specific cause of death, so figuring out how many lives the helmets actually saved is a bit challenging. Fascinating. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/14 "2020-04-05T21:48:09Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Without metal, they wouldn’t get a head injury: they’d get a head _death_. Reminds me of another possibly apocryphal story where they decided to armor the parts of airplanes where he bullet holes on returning airplanes _weren’t_, since the parts where the bullet holes _were_ indicated survivable damage. That one is an exaggeration of something that actually happened - in that the analysts who were trying to understand airplane survivability did have to adjust their mathematical models for the fact that some planes didn’t come back at all. [AMS :: Feature Column :: The Legend of Abraham Wald](http://www.ams.org/publicoutreach/feature-column/fc-2016-06) ---
**Author:** ![CookingWithGas](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cookingwithgas/32/485_2.png) [@CookingWithGas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CookingWithGas)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/15 "2020-04-06T00:19:07Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > I’ve seen arguments that our response to Covid-19 is overblown because the total mortality (or some other metric) is similar to flu. These arguments leave out the fact that those mortality rates have only been achieved BECAUSE of our response. What’s the name of this informal fallacy? Thanks. This doesn’t change the point of your question, but technically the mortality rate is thought to be much higher than flu (deaths per number of cases). The response is to keep the number of cases down, and therefore mortality numbers. But the mortality \*rate \*would be unaffected. ---
**Author:** ![rsat3acr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a3d4f5/32.png) [@rsat3acr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rsat3acr)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/16 "2020-04-06T00:31:37Z")
I still have Trumpers on my facebook feed saying it is all a hoax ---
**Author:** ![Esprise\_Me](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/esprise_me/32/2947_2.png) [@Esprise\_Me](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esprise_Me)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/17 "2020-04-06T00:47:52Z")
We might need to coin a new term. Y2K seems to be the best example; maybe we could name it after that? ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/18 "2020-04-06T01:19:06Z")
> [@CookingWithGas](#): > > This doesn’t change the point of your question, but technically the mortality rate is thought to be much higher than flu (deaths per number of cases). The response is to keep the number of cases down, and therefore mortality numbers. But the mortality \*rate \*would be unaffected. Well I was speaking of total mortality, but the mortality rate is also dependent upon the adequacy of the response. If the curve isn’t flattened below ICU capacity then the mortality rate will increase from the need to deny some patients potentially life-saving care. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/19 "2020-04-06T01:22:28Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > That one is an exaggeration of something that actually happened - in that the analysts who were trying to understand airplane survivability did have to adjust their mathematical models for the fact that some planes didn’t come back at all. [AMS :: Feature Column :: The Legend of Abraham Wald](http://www.ams.org/publicoutreach/feature-column/fc-2016-06) Always liked that story. Wald’s insight is reminiscent of Darwin’s survival of the fittest. Ironically, he died in a plane crash. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128/20 "2020-04-06T01:23:56Z")
I think the OP may be looking for “[inconsistent comparison](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconsistent_comparison)”: this bug would not be similar to the flu were it not for the fact that we are fighting it aggressively. Also, there is an undercounting problem: the flu exists and has been taking lives at its typical rate – this bug has not _replaced_ the flu, it has _added to it_. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-specific-name-for-this-fallacy/851128.md?page=2)