# Is there a sport/game in which an average person could win at least 1 out of a 100 against a top 10 player? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 12, 2022, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103 "2022-10-12T07:00:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/21 "2022-10-12T14:15:04Z")
Actually, the best strategy for a beginner against a poker pro is probably to go all in on every hand without looking at their cards. Given a bit of training, you could possibly try to refine it to going all in on every hand that contained (say) a ten or higher (I haven’t done the maths to check if that makes sense, but you get the idea). A bit like how the best strategy to win money at a casino is to make a single big bet rather than a succession of small bets, as this minimises the effect of the house edge. The pro will have to call the bet at some point, and there is a reasonable chance that when they do, they get unlucky and find the beginner makes a winning hand. If this scenario were played out 100 times, I reckon the beginner would do relatively well, I would estimate they win 20-30 times. This is because such a strategy takes almost all of the skill out of the game. So, poker is a good answer to the OP. ETA: I should have specified some form of “no-limit” poker, no-limit hold 'em (NLHE) is the most common, pretty much for this reason. For the same reason, most poker pros consider limit games to be more skilled - but that makes them less popular and less exciting, and so they get less exposure. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/22 "2022-10-12T14:17:14Z")
I doubt that could happen. Pros don’t bowl 300 games every time but the vast majority of amateurs never get close in their entire lives. Those who do will have averages making them competitive with the pros, so not schlubs. Out of the times amateurs manage to bowl a 300 games they will be disallowed often by the Pro Bowlers Assn. because of non-standard lane conditions. (Amateur league play is regulated by the PBA) The same would apply to Cue Sports (billiards, pool, etc.) mentioned already. ---
**Author:** ![3AxisCtrl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/3/ecd19e/32.png) [@3AxisCtrl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/3AxisCtrl)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/23 "2022-10-12T14:20:20Z")
> [@Mesquite-oh](#): > > … would I as an average person be able to beat a top ten chess master once out of 100 games? I know how to play chess, but I am fairly certain that I would get beat 100 out of 100 times … As **glee** indicates, chess is one of the worst possible choices for this challenge. You’d have about the same chance of success as would an average person against a world-class 400m runner. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/24 "2022-10-12T14:29:13Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Actually, the best strategy for a beginner against a poker pro is probably to go all in on every hand without looking at their cards. That’s a decent strategy (and that alone could end up winning the pot 1:100 times I think) but it’s not the best or it would also be the best strategy for a pro. I was thinking something like: Top 5% hands: 100% of going all in. Next 45%: 10% chance. Bottom 50%: 2% chance. Tuning the actual numbers based on the mathematical odds. Random aside is using the second hand of your watch as a random number technically cheating? I had a friend who swore by that as a strategy (choosing to be aggressive or risk averse based on where the second hand was, to make him harder to predict) ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/25 "2022-10-12T14:30:18Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > The same idea would also apply to backgammon. In fact, it would apply to any game where there is an element of chance, so I think they should be excluded. The first two thoughts I had were backgammon and cribbage. In a set of 100 games, I expect the pro to win somewhere around 70%+ of them. Both those games have significant strategy, but can be screwed up with the luck element. (And that’s what I find most fun about those games: very good mix of strategy and luck. Enough that beginners will continue to play a markedly better player and not get immediately discouraged, as would most any amateur player vs a grandmaster in chess.) ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/26 "2022-10-12T14:35:17Z")
> [@3AxisCtrl](#): > > You’d have about the same chance of success as would an average person against a world-class 400m runner. Even less IMO. There is zero element of chance in chess. Even a pro runner can fall over or have a false start on a rare occasion. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/27 "2022-10-12T14:40:54Z")
The best world champion league Magic: The Gathering player can still get “mana-screwed” where the cards you need to power your other cards randomly wind up too far down the deck to help. A better than 1% win rate for an average guy just learning the game seems more than plausible. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/28 "2022-10-12T14:44:13Z")
[In which sport is there the least/greatest disparity between a professional and an average layman?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-sport-is-there-the-least-greatest-disparity-between-a-professional-and-an-average-layman/854223) I would have sworn the above thread was more recent (as in this year), but maybe there was another one that my Dope Fu can’t find. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/29 "2022-10-12T14:44:54Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > That’s a decent strategy (and that alone could end up winning the pot 1:100 times I think) but it’s not the best or it would also be the best strategy for a pro. I don’t think that follows. The whole point of the strategy is to minimise the pro’s advantages. If the pro did it, they would be minimising their own advantages. Let’s imagine for a moment how it plays out: if you go all in as your first action and the pro just calls with neither checking their cards, it’s literally 50-50. Whereas if you go all-in and the pro checks their cards, they will only call if they have a very strong hand - even then, they may not do so, until it (quickly) becomes clear that you intend to do that every hand. Then at some point they will have to decide when they make the call. Usually, they will be able to do so in a spot that favours them. Then they have to do this soon enough to gain the chip lead, and then again while holding the chip lead in order to win. It’s unsurprising to note here that the bigger the blinds, the harder it is for the pro to use their edge. In fact, even with normal-size blinds, I think you might win about 40% of the time against the pro with this strategy. > [@griffin1977](#): > > I was thinking something like: > Top 5% hands: 100% of going all in. > Next 45%: 10% chance. > Bottom 50%: 2% chance. > > Tuning the actual numbers based on the mathematical odds. This gets interesting because it could allow the pro to figure out your strategy and then modify their own strategy accordingly. But with the element of randomisation that you mention, it probably doesn’t change the overall odds very much. With the strategy I mentioned (go all-in if you hold a 10 or higher, otherwise fold) it would potentially be easier for the pro to learn, but it would take a long time (because obviously you wouldn’t tell them your strategy, and most of the time you wouldn’t have to show your cards). > [@griffin1977](#): > > Random aside is using the second hand of your watch as a random number technically cheating? I had a friend who swore by that as a strategy (choosing to be aggressive or risk averse based on where the second hand was, to make him harder to predict) Not even close to cheating in my view, since (as I mentioned above) randomisation can’t give you an advantage, it just might reduce a disadvantage (I suppose you could argue that amounts to the same thing, but I think there is a distinction in this case). It’s not quite the same thing, but I’ve quite frequently used the tactic of betting on a poker hand without looking at my cards (already referenced in the thread) because a lot of the time, how much you bet and when you do it is more important than what you actually have. > [@griffin1977](#): > > Even a pro runner can fall over or have a false start on a rare occasion. Except in a race against an average person they wouldn’t come close to risking a false start, because they could wait for 5 seconds after the gun and still win at a (gentle) canter. This also greatly reduces the chance of injury or falling over. Similarly in tennis, the pro is never going to risk a double fault (though it is still possible). I suppose you could stipulate that they have to try their hardest, but that just takes the question even further away from reality. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/30 "2022-10-12T14:45:28Z")
You basically need a “sport” that has enough luck to give the amateur a chance, and is short enough that the luck can be the deciding factor. So some sort of one-off event where there is a \>1% chance of a DQ/fall or something with enough luck (like backgammon or poker) where there is a \>1% chance that the luck overrides all skill differentials. But I think if our pro knows he’s up against an amateur they will be extremely cautious, so the DQ/fall approach won’t work. So you’re left with high-luck games like backgammon or poker (or MTG as mentioned just above). Actually I would assume that the win rate for the very best players at some of these games is probably much worse than 99%, even against amateurs. Is competitive blackjack a thing? I would imagine a beginner with simple strategy could win \>1% of the time at that if so. And chess is absolutely the worst choice - world top 100s have a hard time beating world top 10s. And there is no luck at all to help you out. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/31 "2022-10-12T15:04:49Z")
The very best Magic The Gathering players win about 70% of games against average players, assuming both are playing roughly equal-power decks. ---
**Author:** ![3AxisCtrl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/3/ecd19e/32.png) [@3AxisCtrl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/3AxisCtrl)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/32 "2022-10-12T15:09:28Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > I am aware of professional Cornhole, but that has a bit more to it. In fact, it’s just possible it qualifies as an answer to the OP I was mildly amused at the notion that there could be a professional version of what seemed like a trivial backyard game. Then I checked out some videos of those professionals, which make it clear that while a decent amateur might have faint hopes of scoring an occasional point, the chance of winning a game is exactly zero - about like me against Djokovic. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/33 "2022-10-12T15:10:21Z")
I was going to say, as someone already mentioned above, that chess is the worst game to ambush an expert in. You can’t - everything is visible. There are no surprises. There is no luck of the draw; both players start with the same pieces. The grandmaster can see everything you’re doing. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/34 "2022-10-12T15:11:01Z")
That would make sense. I was assuming Joe Average wouldn’t be using a pro level deck (despite being able to look one up and buy the cards) just to keep him suitably average. Either way, Joe Average will walk away from a hundred game marathon with a number of wins. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/35 "2022-10-12T15:13:34Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Have you ever bowled? Based on the stipulations in the OP, the ‘average person’ (based on observing myself, friends, family, and others on the lanes on any given day) would be extraordinarily lucky to hit the front pin 12 times in a row, never mind the luck required for that to translate into 12 strikes. Propelling a 14lb ball in a straight line over 60 feet is not easy. > > Put another way, pro bowlers have averages well into the 200s, your average Joe considers 100 a very good score. There is no chance they could win 1 in 100 games against a pro. I do wonder though, for top bowlers, over 100 games, what’s their **worst** score? Do they ever have a bad day where they might bowl under 150? ---
**Author:** ![3AxisCtrl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/3/ecd19e/32.png) [@3AxisCtrl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/3AxisCtrl)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/36 "2022-10-12T15:17:06Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Propelling a 14lb ball in a straight line over 60 feet is not easy. It’s perhaps worth noting that professional bowlers almost never roll the ball in a straight line - and would not be professional-level if they did. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/37 "2022-10-12T15:21:04Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > I do wonder though, for top bowlers, over 100 games, what’s their **worst** score? Do they ever have a bad day where they might bowl under 150? Yes, but far, far, far less often than amateurs bowl over 150. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/38 "2022-10-12T15:21:14Z")
> [@3AxisCtrl](#): > > It’s perhaps worth noting that professional bowlers almost never roll the ball in a straight line - and would not be professional-level if they did. True, but they are able to consistently bowl with that curve – nearly all of their balls stay on the lane, and a top-tier professional bowler will almost never put a ball in the gutter. Whereas, a truly novice bowler (as per the OP, someone who started bowling a week ago) will be throwing gutter balls most of the time. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/39 "2022-10-12T15:24:04Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Yes, but far, far, far less often than amateurs bowl over 150. But that point is to beat them in a 1-a-100 game. ---
**Author:** ![3AxisCtrl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/3/ecd19e/32.png) [@3AxisCtrl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/3AxisCtrl)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2022, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103/40 "2022-10-12T15:27:26Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Even less IMO. There is zero element of chance in chess. Even a pro runner can fall over or have a false start on a rare occasion. A valid point: running includes a very small luck element, which chess does not. But in a match as outlined in the OP, the elite runner would probably delay his start slightly to avoid disqualification, and could easily overcome the time lost in a couple of falls. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-a-sport-game-in-which-an-average-person-could-win-at-least-1-out-of-a-100-against-a-top-10-player/973103.md?page=3)