Define ‘conscious’ in this context. Is a computer program conscious if it has memory, states and state triggers? Because it appears to me that at least lower insects are exactly that - state machines with defined behaviours for each state and a collection of triggers for flipping them from state to state.
Take ants again. An ant in a ‘forager’ state has a trigger that flips states when it comes across food pheromones from other ants. Then suddenly it becomes a different kind of ant with different behaviours. There is no room in there for individual ant choice, other than a certain amount of randomness…
If we can’t perfectly define consciousness, another way to attack the problem is to ask why we evolved consciousness in the first place. What good is it? A place to start would be in rationalizing choices and integrating information to enabke complex individual behaviour, If an animal behaves purely on instinct there is no need for it to be conscious, and consciousness in that case would be an evolutionary disadvantage as it takes energy to be conscious and can slow down decision-making.
So my first assumption is that consciousness is a spectrum, with purely instinctive animals having none at all, and other animals having varying levels of consciousness as the ratio of choice to instinct grows. For example, my Border Collies have extremely agile brains and can solve all kinds of problems. They have emotions, people they like more than others, toys they like more than others, they love playing games etc. They are also very different individuals. One dog loves watching TV and can recognize dogs even in cartoons (an amazing ability to generalize, if you ask me). The other dog couldn’t care less about TV, even though they are equally ‘smart’.
But they are still more driven by instinct than people are. For example, food treats can be used to train them in exactly the same way. And once trained, they’ll do the same behaviour again and again, as long as you keep rewarding them. Ther are a lot of little things that appear to be instinctive to them that are matters of conscious thiught for us. So their ‘consciousness’ exists, but is of lesser scope.
Subconscious thought clearly exists. If I see my dog, I didn’t see what my eyes saw - a bunch of EM waves of various frequencies. My eyes fed all that stuff to my visual cortex, then my subconscious mind pattern-matched it and served up ‘dog’ without me having to do any conscious processing of the data. Likewise, after you learn to read it is almost impossible to see a word as a collection of line strokes without seeing the word itself. That’s because the word is served ip to your conscious mind before you have a chance to perceive it in a different way.
Throwing a ball requires complex calculations for ball weight, wind, gravity, distance, etc. To throw it accurately requires those calculatiins to be incredibly exact. And yet, we don’t do them. Our subdonsciius mind takes care of all the details.
I once did a calculation for an article on pool, figuring out how much angular accuracy is required to make a ‘spot shot’ (cueball behind the headstring, ball to pocket on the foot spot, to be cut into the corner pocket). The number was astoundingly small - much smaller than I could even see, let alone be able to shoot. And yet, I could make the shot without thinking. In fact, I could make the shot better by not thinking. When my consciius mind gets involved, I get worse, When I’m ‘in the zone’ I can shoot the lights out, but I’m not consciously thinking about the shot much at all.
I play Rock Band for fun. There are times when I’ll get 100% on a song, and realize I had been thinking about something else completely and playing the game on autopilot and didn’t remember what I did. And doing better that way, with my conscious mind completely disconnected.