# Is there any analysis on N Korea's rocket program? How close are they? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [April 13, 2012, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-analysis-on-n-koreas-rocket-program-how-close-are-they/618672 "2012-04-13T16:41:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2012, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-analysis-on-n-koreas-rocket-program-how-close-are-they/618672/1 "2012-04-13T16:41:58Z")
There’s a lot of snickers today about N Korea’s failed launch. I’ve seen several documentaries on Wernher Von Braun and the U.S. rocket program. We had our share of failures too. The USSR didn’t allow reporting of their bigger failures. Just getting the rocket off the launch pad without blowing up was a huge accomplishment. Then we had them blowing up in the sky for awhile. Each failure was one more step in learning and developing the technology. Eventually we figured it out. I recall N Korea launched a rocket a few years ago. It failed too. I’m curious if their current launch was a important technological step forward before it failed? They’re putting signicant resources into this and realistically they will succeed eventually. How far away are they from success? Any analysis out there? ---
**Author:** ![Nunzio\_Tavulari](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Nunzio\_Tavulari](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nunzio_Tavulari)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2012, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-analysis-on-n-koreas-rocket-program-how-close-are-they/618672/2 "2012-04-13T19:33:03Z")
I’m curious if we have a weapon that can knock their missiles out of the sky without them detecting it. Their technology is probably thirty years behind ours, and they may not have visuals on the rocket when it comes apart. ---
**Author:** ![psychonaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/psychonaut/32/4655_2.png) [@psychonaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychonaut)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2012, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-analysis-on-n-koreas-rocket-program-how-close-are-they/618672/3 "2012-04-13T19:40:16Z")
The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies has a pretty informative [FAQ on North Korea’s (attempted) space launch](http://cns.miis.edu/stories/120410_dprk_rocket_launch_faq.htm) which contains lots of links to sources and further information on both the technical and political aspects. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2012, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-analysis-on-n-koreas-rocket-program-how-close-are-they/618672/4 "2012-04-13T22:33:43Z")
Blimmin’ heck, they built the flamin’ thing! That’s over 90% of the job done already! Then, it launched successfully! It flew for about a minute! That’s 95% of the job done, or maybe more! What the heck could possibly stop them? ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2012, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-analysis-on-n-koreas-rocket-program-how-close-are-they/618672/5 "2012-04-13T22:36:40Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > Blimmin’ heck, they built the flamin’ thing! That’s over 90% of the job done already! Then, it launched successfully! It flew for about a minute! That’s 95% of the job done, or maybe more! > > What the heck could possibly stop them? Good old-fashioned American airstrikes! ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2012, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-analysis-on-n-koreas-rocket-program-how-close-are-they/618672/6 "2012-04-14T01:38:29Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > Blimmin’ heck, they built the flamin’ thing! That’s over 90% of the job done already! Then, it launched successfully! It flew for about a minute! That’s 95% of the job done, or maybe more! > > What the heck could possibly stop them? Sometimes failures pave the way to success. Sometimes they just pave the way to more failure. ---
**Author:** ![Michael63129](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3da27b/32.png) [@Michael63129](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Michael63129)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2012, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-analysis-on-n-koreas-rocket-program-how-close-are-they/618672/7 "2012-04-14T01:58:38Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I recall N Korea launched a rocket a few years ago. It failed too. I’m curious if their current launch was a important technological step forward before it failed? They’re putting signicant resources into this and realistically they will succeed eventually. > > How far away are they from success? Any analysis out there? Today’s test was more like a step [backwards](http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-us-norkor-20120414,0,3787383.story): > [@](#): > > The regime tested long-range missiles in 1998, 2006 and 2009. All of them exploded in flight, although the last flew 2,500 miles before breaking up… > > …The Unha-3 missile launched Friday had a slightly larger third stage than the last version that failed, U.S. officials said. This one exploded 90 seconds after blastoff, rising about 75 miles into the atmosphere before breaking into pieces that fell into the ocean. As for the second question, it appears that they still need a lot of work before they can successfully launch a long-range missile (the linked article says the previously estimated timeframe for such capability of 2015 is now unlikely). That aside, they also haven’t been very successful in nuclear tests either so far (the main topic of the linked article); the [last one in 2009](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_North_Korean_nuclear_test#Yield) was probably a few kilotons at the most (some think it and the 2006 tests were fizzles).