# Is there any chance of the sun just exploding? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [August 2, 2006, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095 "2006-08-02T23:09:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/21 "2006-08-03T17:10:52Z")
> [@](#): > > The laws of probability/Chance dictate that you can determine, based upon the number of known occurances to number of chances the likely outcome… since the Sun hasn’t exploded yet, the chances are then astronimically high against it ever happening. This is only really meaningful for discrete events. How many times has the Sun not exploded? Well, it didn’t explode a second ago. And it didn’t explode two seconds ago. And it didn’t explode 2.00000001 seconds ago, and so on. One could discretize the problem by considering some span of time: In this case, the question would be something like “What is the probability that the Sun will explode in the next year?”. Now, you can count the number of years in which the Sun didn’t explode. But that’s tricky, too, since “zero” is an awfully small number to base statistics on. If we could say something like “In the past billion years, the Sun has exploded 30 times”, then we’d have a good basis to estimate the probability, but with a sample size of zero, the best we can do is lay down some very fuzzy bounds. Of course, all of this is assuming that the probability of the Sun exploding in any given year is independant of all other years, which (as you alluded to in your second paragraph) is not true. There are some circumstances for which the probabilities are truly independant (for instance, decay of a radioactive atom), in which case “the closer you get to the time it will occur” is useless. But the Sun, unlike an unstable atom, does have an internal state which progresses towards a state where it will die. This means that if we can understand that internal state sufficiently, then we can dispense with all of the probability, and just look at our watches. Well, we think we do understand it sufficiently to say that we’ve still got a few billion more years. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/22 "2006-08-03T17:13:51Z")
[QUOTE=simster] however, the corrolary to that is that the longer you go without a probable event occuring, the closer you get to the time it will occur (lasvegian statistics)… therefore, we are getting closer and closer to the time it will happen. [/quote] Cite? I can’t find anything on lasvegian statistics on Google. That would work for something like earthquakes, where strain builds up and eventually has to be released. It sounds more like the [gambler’s fallacy](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy)- the belief that if you’ve (say) tossed a coin ten times and it’s come up heads every time, it must be due to come up tails on the next toss. The probability of tails on the next toss is still actually 50%. > [@](#): > > In short, might, might not… wanna bet? I’ll take that bet! If the sun doesn’t blow up by tomorrow, you pay me $10,000. If it does blow up by tomorrow, I’ll pay you $10,000. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![simster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/simster/32/1047_2.png) [@simster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/simster)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/23 "2006-08-03T17:22:57Z")
[QUOTE=Anne Neville] Cite? I can’t find anything on lasvegian statistics on Google. [/QUOTE] [cite…](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy) Was that the wind? I knew I should’ve stated the terms of the bet beforehand… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/24 "2006-08-03T17:32:26Z")
[QUOTE=simster] [cite…](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy) Was that the wind? [/quote] Yes, it was :o ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/25 "2006-08-03T17:42:51Z")
Larry Niven postulated such an event in his Hugo-winning story “Inconstant Moon.” **diggleblop** , it takes 8.5 minutes for light to reach Earth from the Sun, IIRC. So if an astronomer saw a killer flare, he’s already dead, because the radiation-front from same would arrive at the same time the light did. ---
**Author:** ![diggleblop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac91a4/32.png) [@diggleblop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/diggleblop)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/26 "2006-08-03T19:42:08Z")
Thanks, silenus ! ---
**Author:** ![jimbeam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/858c86/32.png) [@jimbeam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jimbeam)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/27 "2006-08-03T20:05:56Z")
[QUOTE=diggleblop] Thanks, silenus ! [/QUOTE] Sorry I didn’t respond d/b, but silenus nailed it so well… it didn’t seem necessary. BTW did that help answer your OP? ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/28 "2006-08-03T20:25:38Z")
[QUOTE=silenus] **diggleblop** , it takes 8.5 minutes for light to reach Earth from the Sun, IIRC. So if an astronomer saw a killer flare, he’s already dead, because the radiation-front from same would arrive at the same time the light did. [/QUOTE] That assumes that the deadly radiation levels start at the beginning of the flare. Solar flares can last for a few hours, and it might be possible to see it starting up, before it got too deadly. There are also protons released in solar flares, which travel slower than light- they can take 15 minutes or several hours to get from the Sun to the Earth. I know those are a concern for astronauts outside Earth’s atmosphere- there have been flares that could have killed an astronaut on the Moon protected by only a space suit. I don’t know if those events can be bad enough to affect someone shielded by Earth’s atmosphere. ---
**Author:** ![Antinor01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecae2f/32.png) [@Antinor01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antinor01)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/29 "2006-08-03T22:01:41Z")
So all in all, it sounds like the answer is…yes there is a chance of the sun just exploding. It is however very, very, very unlikely. Does that sum it up? ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/30 "2006-08-03T22:13:53Z")
[QUOTE=Antinor01] So all in all, it sounds like the answer is…yes there is a chance of the sun just exploding. It is however very, very, very unlikely. [/QUOTE] I’d agree with that, though I might add a few more "very"s. ---
**Author:** ![Antinor01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecae2f/32.png) [@Antinor01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antinor01)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/31 "2006-08-03T22:25:43Z")
[QUOTE=Anne Neville] I’d agree with that, though I might add a few more "very"s. [/QUOTE] Didn’t mean that to sound like I was disparaging all your excellent commentary, just trying to sum up. (great review of the physics involved though, thanks!) ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/32 "2006-08-03T22:33:23Z")
[QUOTE=robby] …Of all the ways for life on Earth to end, the collision of the sun and another star might well be the most dramatic. If the incoming projectile were a white dwarf–a superdense star that packs the mass of the sun into a body a hundredth the size–the residents of Earth would be treated to quite a fireworks show. The white dwarf would penetrate the sun at hypersonic speed, over 600 kilometers a second, setting up a massive shock wave that would compress and heat the entire sun above thermonuclear ignition temperatures. It would take only an hour for the white dwarf to smash through, but the damage would be irreversible. The super-heated sun would release as much fusion energy in that hour as it normally does in 100 million years. The buildup of pressure would force gas outward at speeds far above escape velocity. Within a few hours the sun would have blown itself apart. Meanwhile the agent of this catastrophe, the white dwarf, would continue blithely on its way–not that we would be around to care about the injustice of it all. [/QUOTE] As if I didn’t have _enough_ to worry about. > [@Anne Neville](#): > > ISTR reading somewhere that someone did a study and calculated, even in the collision of the Andromeda galaxy and the Milky Way (which is going to happen, eventually) that fewer than 10 collisions between stars would happen. With 1011 stars in the galaxy, that means odds of 1 in 10 billion that a stellar collision would happen while two galaxies were colliding. Yeah, but with the way my luck’s been running lately… ---
**Author:** ![jimbeam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/858c86/32.png) [@jimbeam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jimbeam)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/33 "2006-08-03T22:35:41Z")
[QUOTE=Anne Neville] I’d agree with that, though I might add a few more "very"s. [/QUOTE] 😃 I didn’t think that was derogatory… just funny. btw, I agree a few more verys would be more precise when establishing the odds. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/34 "2006-08-03T22:54:29Z")
[QUOTE=pravnik] Yeah, but with the way my luck’s been running lately… [/QUOTE] [I’m pretty sure we’ve got three or four billion years before the galaxies collide.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way#Future_of_Milky_Way) Note that when a physicist or astrophysicist says something is “very unlikely”, they’re usually saying something several orders of magnitude different than you are when you say “it’s very unlikely I’ll win the lottery this week.” Lottery and Vegas odds look pretty good next to the 1 in 10 billion chance of the Sun colliding with another star when the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxies collide. I wanted to emphasize that difference. It’s kind of like when an astronomer says a star will go supernova “soon”, and when you press for details it turns out that it will probably go supernova sometime in the next few thousand years. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/35 "2006-08-03T23:01:26Z")
[QUOTE=diggleblop] Not being a smartass, but why not? I’ve always wondered about this. [/QUOTE] I meant to say, but forgot earlier- this wasn’t a smartass question at all. It’s a very good question, actually- you _should_ ask questions like “how do we know that”. I would have been thrilled to get a question like that from a student when I was TAing an astronomy course for non-majors. ---
**Author:** ![diggleblop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac91a4/32.png) [@diggleblop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/diggleblop)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/36 "2006-08-03T23:35:16Z")
[QUOTE=jimbeam] Sorry I didn’t respond d/b, but silenus nailed it so well… it didn’t seem necessary. BTW did that help answer your OP? [/QUOTE] Yup, every answer was very informative. ---
**Author:** ![Will\_Repair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a698b9/32.png) [@Will\_Repair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Will_Repair)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/37 "2006-08-03T23:35:55Z")
[QUOTE=Chronos] …you could have the collider be a black hole, instead. The effects would be much the same… [/QUOTE] How about if I nudge Mercury into the Sun? Or [kill two birds with one stone](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/001027.html) by throwing the Moon into the Sun. ---
**Author:** ![diggleblop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac91a4/32.png) [@diggleblop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/diggleblop)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/38 "2006-08-03T23:45:44Z")
Anne Neville, I would like to be in your class. I am fascinated by this stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2006, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/39 "2006-08-03T23:54:51Z")
[QUOTE=Will Repair] How about if I nudge Mercury into the Sun? Or [kill two birds with one stone](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/001027.html) by throwing the Moon into the Sun. [/QUOTE] Too small and too small. Wouldn’t cause a burp. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2006, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095/40 "2006-08-04T00:36:05Z")
[QUOTE=Will Repair] How about if I nudge Mercury into the Sun? Or [kill two birds with one stone](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/001027.html) by throwing the Moon into the Sun. [/QUOTE] The [How to Destroy the Earth page](http://qntm.org/destroy#5) says it might work with Mercury (number 3 under this heading), if you could somehow teleport it directly into the Sun’s core without it being vaporized by the outer layers of the Sun first. I should note, however, that this is listed under “Other, less scientifically probable ways that Earth could be destroyed”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-chance-of-the-sun-just-exploding/367095.md?page=3)