# Is There Any Doubt We Are Heading for a Double-Dip Recession? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 5, 2011, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521 "2011-08-05T00:22:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/21 "2011-08-05T11:39:23Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > If Obama completes two terms and unemployment is still 8 percent, is it Bush’s fault? To a degree. The kind of damage Bush did is the sort that can last decades. And the Republicans before, after and during Bush have all worked hard to make the situation worse, and to make solutions impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/22 "2011-08-05T12:39:34Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > I guess I did poison the well, but as you said, the recession ended in 2009 so it would really be stretching to point to a Bush policy and say, “See, that policy pushed us into a recession, we came out of it, but it put us right back in again.” > > I knew that this would descend into a GD, that’s why I didn’t post it in GQ. However, there was a bit of partisanship to my point. We have spent a metric shitton of money trying to stimulate the economy. The Fed is basically out of tools having held the federal funds rate near zero for the past three years. > > I should have expected the “without Obama it would have been way WORSE” and the “Bush fucked things up so bad that Obama hasn’t had time to fix it yet” posts, but I’m wondering how long that will continue to be a valid argument. If Obama completes two terms and unemployment is still 8 percent, is it Bush’s fault? Things have really gone to the crapper since the Tea Party came to DC. Are you saying that’s actually Obama’s fault? ---
**Author:** ![mack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b19c9b/32.png) [@mack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mack)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/23 "2011-08-05T12:43:43Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Unemployment still above 9%. Growth below 1/2%. Stock market losing the last 9 straight days, something that hasn’t happened since 1978, and oil plummeting, DESPITE Obama’s near trillion dollar stimulus, tax cuts on the lower class, cash for clunkers, homebuyers tax credit, and interest rates as low as they can possibly go. > > If we aren’t in one already, is there any doubt that the recovery is dead and we are double dipping? Well, at least this time we don’t have a cataclysmic housing/credit market collapse pushing us off our high perch like we did before. Banks just aren’t firehosing credit onto the market like they used to and people just aren’t buying stuff. I mean, how much worse can it get? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/24 "2011-08-05T13:15:48Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > I should have expected the “without Obama it would have been way WORSE” and the “Bush fucked things up so bad that Obama hasn’t had time to fix it yet” posts, but I’m wondering how long that will continue to be a valid argument. If Obama completes two terms and unemployment is still 8 percent, is it Bush’s fault? I don’t think we have the tools to know and understand whose “fault” it would be 8 years out. All that really matters, though, is that it will be Obama’s fault, politically. > [@Ravenman](#): > > Things have really gone to the crapper since the Tea Party came to DC. Are you saying that’s actually Obama’s fault? On what basis do you say that? Certainly the political atmosphere seems worse, but is there evidence that the economy is significantly worse since the last election? If so, how do you pin that on the TP? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/25 "2011-08-05T14:00:54Z")
Almost every Republican signed a pledge not to raise taxes under any circumstances. That means those who created the pledge are involved in governance, Those people are the baggers, the funders and think tanks in back of them and the rich who want more to flow their way. It is their drive . The baggers are small in number, but they are impacting in the financial backing of the candidates. That is a huge power. We can not cut the deficits, in a meaningful way, without revenue. Therefore we can not cut the deficit. They are the basis of gridlock. They refuse to bargain at all. I hope they all get voted out on their ignorant asses the next time they run. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/26 "2011-08-05T14:09:49Z")
> [@mack](#): > > I mean, how much worse can it get? 😃 I could be unemployed! Well…again. ---
**Author:** ![Foggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foggy/32/1082_2.png) [@Foggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Foggy)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/27 "2011-08-05T14:28:08Z")
Is Bush and or Obama to blame for this mess, maybe/maybe not but THESE “people” have to be held accountable for their part. [Photo](http://thedailywh.at/2011/08/05/tweet-of-the-day-18/) ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/28 "2011-08-05T15:12:54Z")
Well, this got sidetracked quickly, eh? As to the OP - yes, there is doubt. If there was no doubt, the market sell-off would be much steeper. I’d put the odds of a second recession at 40% at this point - I’ve seen professionals cite figured between 50% and 33%. There are probably a few who think the likelihood is higher. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/29 "2011-08-05T15:52:43Z")
The jobs news, which was expected to be bad was actually surprisingly good. Up 170,000 last month. That slowed down the market drop for a bit. Most of trading is done by super pre programmed computers that react in an instant to projected trends that it recognizes. Then it moves stocks at incredible rates. ---
**Author:** ![Ogre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ecb155/32.png) [@Ogre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ogre)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/30 "2011-08-05T18:48:51Z")
Nitpick: not 170,000. 117,000. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/31 "2011-08-05T19:46:53Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > On what basis do you say that? Certainly the political atmosphere seems worse, but is there evidence that the economy is significantly worse since the last election? If so, how do you pin that on the TP? If the economy is Obama’s doing, is it also not the doing of the Congress? Since the Republicans took over the House, GDP growth has dipped, the unemployment numbers reversed the improvements seen in 2010, and the government came within inches of its first-ever default. The S&P is now below where it was on January 3rd when the new Congress was sworn in. How is the Tea Party responsible? They have prioritized the boogeyman of runaway, unaffordable debt over the real and current problem of economic recovery. They played chicken with the good name of government securities, causing instability in the markets. They delayed the passage of a government budget for months, meaning that the government was unable to efficiently manage its contracts with private industry. What I’m really saying is that if we want to hold politicians completely responsible for the state of the economy, let’s take a closer look at which party has done more reckless things that seem to be correlated with the current economic panic. It would seem to me that calling the credit of the United States into question is a more likely cause of the markets going down and the possible downgrading of our credit rating, rather than Wall Street waking up this week to realize that a stimulus bill was passed 27 months ago, or a health care reform bill was passed 19 months ago. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/32 "2011-08-05T19:56:39Z")
I was expecting much worse, based on Congress’ dithering. I’m half-expecting a _super_ good jobs report next month, as delayed hiring kicks in. Ravenman? It’s just history repeating. > **[Recession of 1937–1938](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1937)** > > The recession of 1937–1938 was an economic downturn that occurred during the Great Depression in the United States. > By the spring of 1937, production, profits, and wages had regained their early 1929 levels. Unemployment remained high, but it was substantially lower than the 25% rate seen in 1933. The American economy took a sharp downturn in mid-1937, lasting for 13 months through most of 1938. Industrial production declined almost 30 percent, and production of durable goods fell even faster. > ... ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/33 "2011-08-05T20:13:28Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > Ravenman? It’s just history repeating. > [Recession of 1937–1938 - Wikipedia](https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Recession_of_1937) The thought has passed my mind. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/34 "2011-08-05T20:41:39Z")
> [@Ogre](#): > > Nitpick: not 170,000. 117,000. Which puts it below the level required to fill the jobs created through population growth. The only reason the unemployment number didn’t go up is because 200,000 people stopped looking for work. Now, here in Canada we’re undergoing some ‘austerity’ measures and laying off government employees, which many of you think is a ridiculous thing to do in a recession. In our jobs report, the public sector shrank by 71,500 jobs. But here’s the funny thing: The private sector created 94,500 jobs - which is about 7 times the per-capita private sector jobs creation rate as the U.S. is currently experiencing. And the private sector jobs were primarily full-time jobs in manufacturing, construction, retail and transportation. Good jobs. So in our case, cutting government spending is actually resulting in a healthier economy. Our private sector responded by creating even more jobs than were lost in the public sector. Our unemployment rate is now 7.2% ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/35 "2011-08-05T21:09:27Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Which puts it below the level required to fill the jobs created through population growth. The only reason the unemployment number didn’t go up is because 200,000 people stopped looking for work. > > Now, here in Canada we’re undergoing some ‘austerity’ measures and laying off government employees, which many of you think is a ridiculous thing to do in a recession. In our jobs report, the public sector shrank by 71,500 jobs. > > But here’s the funny thing: The private sector created 94,500 jobs - which is about 7 times the per-capita private sector jobs creation rate as the U.S. is currently experiencing. And the private sector jobs were primarily full-time jobs in manufacturing, construction, retail and transportation. Good jobs. > > So in our case, cutting government spending is actually resulting in a healthier economy. Our private sector responded by creating even more jobs than were lost in the public sector. Our unemployment rate is now 7.2% So you’re saying that well-educated government workers are now getting jobs in manufacturing and retail? Interesting… ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/36 "2011-08-05T21:11:29Z")
> [@MOIDALIZE](#): > > I love how he blithely declares the terror of the market over the stimulus spending just after **Hellestal** posted on the absurdly low bond yields that now exist. > > This isn’t the National Review comments section, Sam. Take your BS propaganda elsewhere. Every small business owner I know said exactly what Sam said. He’s nailed it dead on. Obama, Pelosi and Reid have done nothing but burden businesses with financial costs having nothing to do with the function of business and continues to threaten companies with increased energy costs by way of carbon taxes. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/37 "2011-08-05T21:31:30Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > So in our case, cutting government spending is actually resulting in a healthier economy. Our private sector responded by creating even more jobs than were lost in the public sector. Our unemployment rate is now 7.2% Are you trying to say that the decrease in public sector jobs in this report is somehow _responsible_ for the increase in private sector jobs? Layoffs in the public sector today translate **immediately** into an increase in private jobs? Huh? If so, this is nonsense. I would say the increase in private jobs is more due to the stimulative spending by the government LAST YEAR. The government spent money to get the economy stabalized, and we are just now seeing the results of this spending in the private sector, as the recession is easing. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/38 "2011-08-05T21:37:29Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > That stimulus added about 3 million jobs, so the U3 would be about 2% higher w/o it. So we’d be at 11-12%, not 9-10%. Could we have a cite for this? One that doesn’t tack “or saved” onto the number of jobs and has some actual data to back this statistic up? Because the last I heard, they still have no solid idea of how many were actually created or saved by the stimulus. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/39 "2011-08-05T21:52:28Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Are you trying to say that the decrease in public sector jobs in this report is somehow _responsible_ for the increase in private sector jobs? Layoffs in the public sector today translate **immediately** into an increase in private jobs? Huh? No, but I can see how poor wording on my part (saying ‘the private sector responded by…’) could give that interpretation. > [@](#): > > If so, this is nonsense. I would say the increase in private jobs is more due to the stimulative spending by the government LAST YEAR. The government spent money to get the economy stabalized, and we are just now seeing the results of this spending in the private sector, as the recession is easing. Really? What evidence do you have for that? I think our reasonably good economy has more to do with what government _hasn’t_ done than what it has done. Government is remarkably quiet in Canada, and has been for some time. Our stimulus was dramatically smaller than the U.S.'s. Our government isn’t intervening in the economy to anywhere near the extent U.S. government has. Our regulatory agencies aren’t getting in everyone’s faces. No one is terrified of an entitlement explosion, because our retirement system is fully funded. Our debt is manageable, and our deficits low and falling quickly. There’s no prospect of large tax changes on the horizon. Overall, Canada increasingly feels like it has a stable, even playing field, and that’s what ultimately drives investment and job creation. Our major risk is our economic ties to the behemoth to the south. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521/40 "2011-08-05T21:57:42Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Could we have a cite for this? One that doesn’t tack “or saved” onto the number of jobs and has some actual data to back this statistic up? Because the last I heard, they still have no solid idea of how many were actually created or saved by the stimulus. All the papers I’ve seen touted by people supporting the stimulus are simply updated estimates based on the same Keynesian models used to justify the stimulus in the first place. The few papers that have come out that have looked at actual empirical data have not found anywhere near the number of jobs the proponents of the stimulus claimed. One peer-reviewed paper even found an outcome where 500,000 government jobs were created, and 1,000,000 jobs destroyed in the private sector as a result of the stimulus, for a net loss of jobs due to the stimulus package. To be fair that was just one of the outcomes within the range of possible outcomes in that paper, some of which resulted in a certain small amount of net job creation. But nothing near the ‘millions of jobs’ the stimulus proponents are still talking about. Another paper out last year found that around the world, stimulus packages in countries with floating exchange rates and open economies largely failed, with multipliers near zero. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-doubt-we-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-recession/591521.md?page=3)