# Is there any point, any more, in the U.S. having an embargo on Cuba? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 11, 2005, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173 "2005-12-11T21:46:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2005, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/61 "2005-12-13T21:55:49Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > What’s so special about Cuba that anyone wants it be de-embargoed . . . Also . . . the way you frame that . . . Would you not agree, as a starting point, that a trade embargo is an extraordinary measure? And that, if there is no clearly greater reason to have it than not to have it, dropping it would automatically be the preferred, default position? Or would you argue, to the contrary, that in such a situation maintaining the embargo is automatically the preferred, default position, simply because the embargo is the “status quo” and you don’t meddle with the “status quo” without good reason? I’m really interested in your thought processes here. (Much as a hacker is really interested in source code . . . 😉 ) ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2005, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/62 "2005-12-13T22:01:29Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But those are, by definition, people who were so discontented they had to leave. That doesn’t make them a good representative sample of public opinion in Cuba. Given that they are sending back a sizable percentage of the countries income, I can’t say that I get the impression that they’re dicontent so much as trying to do the best they can for their families. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2005, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/63 "2005-12-13T22:42:09Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Would you not agree, as a starting point, that a trade embargo is an extraordinary measure? I wouldn’t agree. Memory Lane: Years ago, my cousin chipped her front tooth. Her parents were both still druggies at the time so had no money to spare for such things. My parents tell them that if they take her to a dentist, the dentist can bill them. Her parents, however, say that my parents have to send them the money, and they will pay for it direct. Certainly it’s possible that if my parents had paid, her parents would have taken her–but given everything my family knew from all their dealings, there was no reason to believe that sending money wouldn’t simply have bought more drugs or alcohol. We will never know, of course, but I certainly don’t feel that withholding the money is a grievous offence even though certainly not a nice thing[sup]TM[/sup] to do and ending any chance of my cousin having a perfect smile. Simply, so long as you’re in a state where you can’t just fly in and swoop up my uncle’s children, sending money or no, really at any exchange all you can do is hope for the best for my cousins and be ready for the day you know you can swoop in. > [@](#): > > Or would you argue, to the contrary, that in such a situation maintaining the embargo is automatically the preferred, default position, simply because the embargo is the “status quo” and you don’t meddle with the “status quo” without good reason? It would depend on the dictator. If we’re talking Pol Pot, skip the embargo, do not collect $200 dollars, depose that sucker now. But that I can tell, Castro seems to be a “relatively” benevolent dictator–personally I would vote that he just likes to look good internationally more than that he cares about his people, but that’s me. …And when you’re living in Havana, really all you have to do to look like you’re doing good is kick up your feet and not do a lot. I vote for a status quo in this case because I don’t see anything to be gained, not because I think that a “status quo” is always a good choice. Until we can get in there and free all the journalists locked up in jail, start searching down hidden graves, and trying to convert the country into not running on graft as the default–help or not help, either way the people are still getting the shaft. > [@](#): > > (Much as a hacker is really interested in source code . . . 😉 ) Well, I’m one of the few who actually includes comments with my code. ---
**Author:** ![Jill\_s\_Fruitcake\_Mine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Jill\_s\_Fruitcake\_Mine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jill_s_Fruitcake_Mine)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2005, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/64 "2005-12-13T23:00:20Z")
We won’t break the embargo with an oil man in the White House. They see the drilling of oil wells as the right from God to the oil, no matter who’s land they found it on, or whether they got the permits via graft. Once you have the oil mentality (and it dominates the states closest to Cuba) you cannot see past “driller’s rights” to public property of oil. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/65 "2005-12-14T02:12:08Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > I wouldn’t agree. > > Memory Lane: Years ago, my cousin chipped her front tooth. Her parents were both still druggies at the time so had no money to spare for such things. My parents tell them that if they take her to a dentist, the dentist can bill them. Her parents, however, say that my parents have to send them the money, and they will pay for it direct. > > Certainly it’s possible that if my parents had paid, her parents would have taken her–but given everything my family knew from all their dealings, there was no reason to believe that sending money wouldn’t simply have bought more drugs or alcohol. > > We will never know, of course, but I certainly don’t feel that withholding the money is a grievous offence even though certainly not a nice thing[sup]TM[/sup] to do and ending any chance of my cousin having a perfect smile. > > Simply, so long as you’re in a state where you can’t just fly in and swoop up my uncle’s children, sending money or no, really at any exchange all you can do is hope for the best for my cousins and be ready for the day you know you can swoop in. 😕 What does that have to do with the price of sex? We’re talking about an embargo, which interdicts **commerce;** any interdiction of charity incidental. If your cousin’s parent’s had offered to sell you their car, would it be your business how they spent the money? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/66 "2005-12-14T02:31:56Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > If your cousin’s parent’s had offered to sell you their car, would it be your business how they spent the money? If I don’t need the car and am only buying it on the basis that they would use the money to take care of their kids. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/67 "2005-12-14T02:48:49Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > If I don’t need the car and am only buying it on the basis that they would use the money to take care of their kids. No one’s suggesting we have that kind of “commerce” with Cuba. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/68 "2005-12-14T03:22:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > No one’s suggesting we have that kind of “commerce” with Cuba. **BrainGlutton** : “I think the effect of a good or bad year would be reflected, not in the number of pesos you take home each week, but in what you can buy with them. […] the issue here is simply whether the U.S. should drop the embargo. I say that would be the best thing for the Cuban people” Well here, I’ve been discussing things on a “best case” scenario, but let’s look at a bad one. Let us say that a long time ago, Castro thought we were evil capitalist pigs and went out to find the most vocal hater of us, the USSR. He says to them, “Hey, these guys are right there on my doorstep and have they got some nerve! Let me help you out. Give me some money and I’ll let you park a couple of nuclear weapons at my crib just to make 'em sweat.” But in end result, we stop the missiles and Russia does what we want instead of what he wants–though they do give him some money. But the US keeps raggin on the USSR until they bust up and stop sending Castro money–meaning that he now has to earn a living for himself. Not only that, he’s back to just being a little island tyrant instead of the Great Threat and lead man of the great Communist Power! And to add on top of everything, the US has dissed him and won’t give him any money or allow half of anyone to either. Now let’s just pretend that, like many Latin men, Castro has a good helping of machismo in him–and say a good smattering of ego to go with it. He’s been reported as a little annoying bully for years on end and his people were going off to the US and making uber-dough, one of the few things keeping _his_ perfect economy afloat. And he decides, he’s going to dump any money he can get his hands on to secretly building a missile silo, and he sends off spies to the US to learn where all the fled Cubans live. And he has a button. A button he will use just befor he passes away. But alas! His economy is so bad that, not only can’t he build his missile silo, he has had to endebt himself to France just to keep the peasants fed so they don’t revolt! Oh, if only someone would bolster his economy! Yes, he’ll get those traitors, and America back. He’ll be laughing on his way to Heaven! ^ So, what reason do I have to believe in everything I know about Castro that he is not a cantankerous, spiteful old man with every ability and reason to try and get revenge the moment he doesn’t have to worry about any repurcussions? Why should I believe that he won’t take our money, do a couple of press field-trips to show how everything is getting better with the new money–when really it’s a facade and 99% of all the money is going into his revenge ploy? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/69 "2005-12-14T03:26:03Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > And he decides, he’s going to dump any money he can get his hands on to secretly building a missile silo . . . :rolleyes: That all ya got? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/70 "2005-12-14T03:56:19Z")
Alright, how about this story: There’s this guy who lives in an war-torn nation, with all factions being tyranical dickheads. But he has to live there and see to his family, though still young. But as he ages and he has to take on more of the responsibilities of the family, but the condition of the country simply won’t allow that. But he is deathly afraid of the tyranical warlords and can think of them as nothing other than indefeatable, insane madmen who would just as soon kill his family if they thought he was in the least discontent. He fosters a great anger, his family should be able to live a life of safety! But he has nowhere to direct this hatred because of his fear. Then he is told, “It is the US. They have interfered and sought to bring this strife to our nation so they can control it!” He studies under this man and finally has a place to turn his hatred–he has long since forgotten his family. The man tells him, “Now board a plane and run it into a building!” Who would be so stupid? Why, certainly if someone was to do that, the combined wrath of the USA would come crunching down and squish you. ^ I live in Japan so I got to sit here and hear all the chewey goodness as North Korea shot a couple missiles over my head and into the ocean on the other side. Can you think of a reason for Castro not to bomb the US before he dies? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/71 "2005-12-14T05:07:52Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > Then he is told, “It is the US. They have interfered and sought to bring this strife to our nation so they can control it!” He studies under this man and finally has a place to turn his hatred–he has long since forgotten his family. The man tells him, “Now board a plane and run it into a building!” > > Who would be so stupid? Why, certainly if someone was to do that, the combined wrath of the USA would come crunching down and squish you. > > ^ I live in Japan Hey, and this exact thing happened hundreds of times in WWII, what with the Kamikazi fliers and what-not, so it’s rather topical… :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/2bfe46/32.png) [@John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Carter_of_Mars)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/72 "2005-12-14T05:23:15Z")
> [@treis](#): > > So no evidence then. You post that as though it is some Final Answer[sup]TM[/sup]. Of course I don’t have evidence that proves a hypothetical. You don’t either. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/73 "2005-12-14T05:27:27Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > Alright, how about this story:. . .Can you think of a reason for Castro not to bomb the US before he dies? Rather a . . . I don’t know . . . _"non sequitur’_ is too strong a word . . . so is “argument.” ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/74 "2005-12-14T10:35:21Z")
I perfectly well agree that all the stupid things a person could ever do that would be extremely catastrophic and unproductive are stupid. But we still live in a world where idiological individuals are willing to shove their heads up their ass and proceed on to do those things. Giving me a rolleyes to say “That’s just dumb”–yes I agree that it is just dumb. Now show me why anyone should have any belief that Castro isn’t an idiological individual with his head up his ass. As of yet in this thread all the evidence for and against him is: For: - Sent a group of doctors to Venezuela Against: - Set his country up as the premiere launch site for any invasion into the US, or from which to launch nuclear armament > [@](#): > > The best conservative estimate is that between 30,000 to 40,000 Cubans have perished attempting to flee Castro’s regime, mostly succumbing in the treacherous waters of the Florida Straits. My figures for death at sea are consistent with Juan Clark’s “Cuba: Mito y Realidad,” who estimated that more than 16,000 Cubans had made it to freedom since 1959 up to the time of the publication of the book in 1992. Clark estimated that figure represented only one out of three Cubans who attempted to make it to freedom. Countless thousands of others have died indirectly as a result of Fidel Castro’s collectivist policies, unspeakable privations, malnutrition, and the general desolation of a once prosperous island – an island that Christopher Columbus called the “Pearl of the Antilles.” Since Fidel Castro took over the island in 1959, the best figures that we can glean is that between 30,000 to 40,000 people either have been executed en los paredones de fusilamiento (in the firing squad wall) or have died in the hands of their communist jailers. The scholar Armando Lago has arrived at a death toll of 105,000 victims directly attributed to the regime of Fidel Castro. Yet, if we use the higher estimates, all of those who died escaping the regime, shot or in custody, the figure well exceeds 100,000. One day, like with the Soviet Union, we will learn the truth, and more accurate numbers will be available, recording the full extent of the brutality and destruction of communism in Cuba. [From here](http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/12/6/145131.shtml) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2005, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/75 "2005-12-14T19:52:53Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > - Set his country up as the premiere launch site for any invasion into the US, or from which to launch nuclear armament . . . You are aware, are you not, that it is no longer 1962? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2005, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/76 "2005-12-15T01:44:54Z")
I’m just establishing a pattern. According to the Wikipedia, about 2000 people try to escape the country by sea every year, and then according the above cite, roughly two thirds drown in the Florida Straights. Wiki also says that the 2000 figure has been growing in recent years. So what would it take you to get on a boat with a two thirds chance of drowning? I doubt it’s because some guy was mean to you in 1962 but has been nice since. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2005, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/77 "2005-12-15T02:30:33Z")
**Note: This math is almost definitely statistically meaningless.** And yet I do it. 😛 The Irish Potato famine killed off (according to the Wikipedia) about 500,000 people of an initial population of 6.6 million Irish over a course of five years. Due to this, roughly two million people fled the country. So let’s assume that the number of deaths due to an epidemic is directly related to the number of people who try and escape as a function of the total population. So, each year 100,000 people will have died and 400,000 will have fled: a 1 to 4 ratio. Of course, how many people flee a region will depend on how easily they can (border-length to land area ratio, public transportation, etc.) and whether they ever have a chance. But we’ll go with this number since I can’t think of any other countries to test with a similarly small border, large refugee count, and bordering free nations. Now, the Wikipedia states that the number of people who have fled Cuba since 1959 is 1 million people. This yealds 21,739 per year, which matches up quite well with the figure out 20,000 legal immigrations (capped since 1994) plus anyone who survives the Florida Straights. So at a 1 to 4 ratio, this would mean that about 5400 people would be being killed every year in the country, or a total of 248,400 killings or deaths by starvation, etc. since 1959. Of course, it is probably harder to escape Cuba than Ireland, so a lower ratio is to be expected (like 1 to 2), but certainly the 100,000 deaths number is perfectly believable. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2005, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/78 "2005-12-15T02:39:40Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > **Note: This math is almost definitely statistically meaningless.** And yet I do it. 😛 Meaningless, because it does not show how ending the embargo would make things worse for the Cuban people, or even how it would fail to make things better. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2005, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/79 "2005-12-15T04:42:08Z")
Your argument, as I understood it, was that if we give send money to Cuba (via trade), we can trust that that money will be allowed to help the people. My argument was, “What reason do we have to trust Castro to do anything good for the people?” That he is a mass murderer could possibly be conceived as being an indicator that he’s not a real trustworthy fellow. And when you have a non-trustworthy fellow who happens to like killing lots of people, why should we trust that he won’t use that money for bad purposes before good? Or, if you want to insist that the money which goes into Cuba isn’t 100% controlled by Castro, you’re going to have to prove that beyond “I read him as a True Believer.” If he was a true believer in creating an _equal society of everlasting, sustainable peace_, he wouldn’t be keeping his people imprisoned on the island, killing them at will. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2005, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173/80 "2005-12-15T14:26:51Z")
> [@Sage Rat](#): > > Your argument, as I understood it, was that if we give send money to Cuba (via trade), we can trust that that money will be allowed to help the people. > > My argument was, “What reason do we have to trust Castro to do anything good for the people?” > > That he is a mass murderer could possibly be conceived as being an indicator that he’s not a real trustworthy fellow. And when you have a non-trustworthy fellow who happens to like killing lots of people, why should we trust that he won’t use that money for bad purposes before good? :rolleyes: You’re really reaching there. Castro is **not** a “mass murderer.” Not unless you count those who got killed trying to cross the Florida Straits as murder victims of his – and you shouldn’t; they knew the risks, mainly of drowning. Otherwise, AFAIK he is innocent of any Stalin-style purges or artificial famines. He does not “like to kill people.” And he can be trusted to do things good for the people because he has, in fact, done so – at least, a lot of very worthwhile things have been done on his watch. I repeat: When Cuba opened trade with a lot of other countries after the Cold War, life **did** get better for the people. So, if they are allowed to open trade with the U.S. too, why should not life for them get better still? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-point-any-more-in-the-u-s-having-an-embargo-on-cuba/335173.md?page=5)