I suspect that a lot more people are concerned about bringing kids into a world where climate change is going to make things horrible. However potential parents in states which make abortion impossible or difficult are going to be a lot more concerned about defects. It’s not like the governments of those states are going to help with high needs children.
As for impact, it will be tough in the short run but there might be unexpected advantages in the longer run. One of the impacts of the Black Death, far nastier than any depopulation we’re expecting, is the end of serfdom as individual people became more valuable from being scarce. How about a world with few enough children so that it will be easier to educate them all to a higher standard, and few enough workers so they all get a living wage. More automation, for sure. It might be true that more kids mean more Einsteins, but if more kids means more poverty and that the army of kids don’t get the education they deserve, how many of those Einsteins will never realize their potential?
I think it’s more personal than that. People in developed countries have babies later, in the US mothers averaged about 21 years old for their first baby in 1970, and it’s now 28 or so, and some European countries are even later. Women are valuing themselves as contributors to society in ways other than as baby factories. That means college and career unhampered by pregnancy, and the rigors of infant/toddler caregiving.
When we DO have babies, we’re massaging them like Waygu cattle. We’re not taking the “quantity has a quality of its own” approach to kids. If a woman waits until she’s in her 30s to have a kid, she’s not going to plan to have 4 in quick succession, she has 1 or 2 and calls it a day.
I do think like your #5, we will get to an equilibrium. I don’t know what it will look like, but I think we get there.
No, I’m pretty sure scientists have tested all kinds of creatures for their reaction to external stimuli.
Which is why we made sure that every last buffalo in the herd went over the cliff - don’t want them to spread word of the trap to the rest of their kind! And if that meant we had to abandon most of the meat to rot, so be it.
Humans from primitive societies were not Disney wood elves, perfectly in tune with nature and the Circle of Life. They were human beings, just like us, and just as capable of being cruel, or wasteful.
I’m sure all the megafauna species we wiped out outside of Africa really appreciated this more wholesome attitude our ancestors had as they slaughtered them to extinction.
So how do you justify buying food that requires the slaughter of millions of rats and mice and other rodents to reach you uneaten?
I hope people will realize this after vital jobs go unfilled due to immigration limitations. We’ve seen it happen already in some states that were cracking down.
I think one way would be to make parenthood a career, not a volunteer job. What if being a stay-at-home parent were considered to be a job. Now, many parents with high end careers would keep them, that’s fine. But how many would find parenthood more rewarding than a dead end office job? With supported transitions back to regular work as the kids go to school and are out of the house more. More dobable with work at home these days than it was in the past.
We’d have to change the mindset of employers a bit. I think this has happened in Europe already. My son-in-law is German, and he has not problem taking paternity leave which I think most people raised here don’t take. Like me. (Though paternity leave didn’t really exist when my kids were born.) My instincts are that he’s been shooting himself in the foot by taking this time, but I’ve been proven wrong.
I care about the ecosystem, but that is only me, one human being. Many people care about the ecosystem, but that is only them, some more human beings.
No other beings (that we are aware of) care about the Earth’s ecosystem. If there are no humans to care about it, then there’s no one at all to care about it. The Earth’s ecosystem matters only to the extent that people care about.
Once you posit the extinction of humanity, there are no moral agents remaining to have cares, concerning the Earth’s ecosystem or anything else.
I am disappointed but not surprised by how rapidly the train left the track and how many times it rolled before bursting into flames. We have gone from the question asked to White nationalism and boxes that kill old people.
My own thought process was much less creative. I think mandating a certain number of three-bedroom apartments might help. I also like the idea of free college for parents with babes in arms.
You are aware that a non-zero number of women die in childbirth every year, correct? Even in countries with excellent and abundant medical care. Even when the situation isn’t that dire pregnancy and delivery can result in life-long problems with the back, urinary system, and so forth. Just because you didn’t suffer any long-term effects does not mean everyone is so fortunate.
That’s been more or less true since WWII, actually.
Way back when social security was instituted in the US, with a retirement age of 65, the average lifespan in the US was just over 61 years… many people didn’t live long enough to retire. Those that did were only on SS for a couple years before dying off.
Now, the average person who makes it to 65 lives another 20 years - pretty much an additional generation. This is yet another reason why retirement systems are shaky these days, they were created when people spent a much shorter part of their life in retirement. But is also means that “bubble” you talk about lasts nearly a full generation, not just a few years. I’m not aware of any retirement system that’s really set up to handle that situation.
See, that’s part of the problem - being a parent is NOT seen as a career choice. You’re on call 24/7, not only are you not paid kids cost you money, there’s no benefits package, no retirement… (that’s especially a problem for many women - they raise kids which is arguably one of the most valuable things they can do but they’re actually penalized on SS for “not working” during those years if they do it full time/stay at home)
MAYBE if there were all those things some women might decide on producing the next generation as their career choice.
That’s exactly why I’ve been thinking about this stuff for such a long time. From almost as long as I can remember, I’ve been basically confused as to how civilization keeps going. Even when I was 10, it was obvious that unless everyone has two kids (with their mate), society will quickly wither away to nothing (I understood exponential growth from a young age). But at no point in my life did I have that drive to have kids. They just seemed totally illogical and dumb. Was everybody like that?
Eventually I realized that some people–maybe most–do actually have some internal drive that causes them to want kids over and above any practical factors. I still don’t understand it but I can accept it exists. That it must exist. Still, it only does so much.
So I think I was basically right all along. Kids are illogical and dumb, and the only thing that keeps civilization stable is that people still have kids in spite of that. And today, with greater education and health services and elder support and all that, it’s very easy to just not have kids and avoid those costs. Which means civilization collapses.
But people are still emotional creatures. So maybe there’s an opportunity for pushing on the positive emotional aspects and addressing the negative ones. I don’t think that piling on yet more parental benefits will be of much help (though it may help produce better children). People have to want children. Almost like an addiction, in the way people consume harmful substances in spite of knowing the downsides.
That’s true. but the global ecosystem doesn’t need anything to care about it. It cares about itself. Ecosystems perpetuate themselves. Species will go extinct and new ones will arise.
I just don’t want to be part of the species that destroys the planet even though it knows it is doing so. You can enjoy that privilege of sapience if you want, I can’t. I would far rather be extinct, and know nothing of what will come after us, than that.
I may be the only person on this board that doesn’t want to be part of this supernova of destruction yet has no choice. So be it.
Haredi Jews practice some very strict gender segregation - hard to conceive when you’re not able to get close enough to touch the opposite gender. Even after marriage there’s strict gender segregation. This is a major reason for low teen pregnancy rates (except in cases where the teens are married to each other). Once in awhile it happens, but it’s quite a challenge.
Not sure how the Amish manage their teenagers’ hormones. Pre-marital childbirth does occur from time to time among them because Amish are human, too.
That sort of genetic change in humans takes, at a minimum, thousands of years. It’s not going to happen soon enough to make a difference to our current global society/civilization.
Again, natural selection in humans doesn’t work that fast. Even more so it doesn’t work that fast on a population measuring in the billions.
The fact is most of the tech that would enable known carriers of problem genes to have kids without concern is expensive and only available to a minority of people at present.
Meanwhile, the poor are still having kids. In fact, people in poor countries with no access to such technology are the only ones that are still reproducing at or above replacement rate.
For some individuals it’s a factor and for them it might be a very strong one, but it’s not that for most of humanity.
(There are some lower-tech methods that can work in cultures that emphasize arranged marriages, but that’s incompatible with a lot of people these days)
I honestly don’t know, but I’m open to suggestions.
Maybe change social programming so society doesn’t emphasize cut-throat-get-ahead-at-all-costs notions? Less emphasis on acquiring stuff, more and more stuff?" There is a social cost to NOT trying to climb.
It depends entirely on the effect size. Natural selection can work in a single generation with a strong enough effect–a (hypothetical) “don’t have kids, ever” gene could not survive a single generation.
Whether any traits close to that exist in the population remains to be seen. But remember, we’re talking about having kids vs. not. That applies very strong selection pressure. It’s not like being born with some muscle composition that gives you a 1% greater chance of escaping a predator. If you don’t have kids, it’s (selection-wise) the same as having a defect causing 100% infant mortality.
So I don’t think it’s unreasonable that some traits could have a notable shift in frequency over a handful of generations.
That’s what I’m trying to get at- if we were to make it a clear choice between having a career and possibly a late kid, or just having a family from the start with as few implicit or explicit penalties, financial, or otherwise as possible, then the choice might be a less clear one for many women.
But as it stands, any woman with any level of ambition or self-actualization is going to choose the career, and kids are a second thought. And when they’re married, kids become a major life choice because of all the impacts to finances, social life, free time, and so forth. If a lot of that was out of the picture, then it might be a much more attractive option.
Do you drive a car? Eat beef? Fly in an airplane? Eat food grown a thousand miles away? Etc. Do you try to avoid such things as best you can, or are you seriously planning to minimize such activity in the future? Just for a few of the most egregious. But it of course goes much deeper. For example, are you interested in cramming even more human beings on to the planet by trying to figure out how to convince women to have more children? Many of the horrible things we do wouldn’t be so damaging if billions of people weren’t all doing them. The planet can heal from the destructiveness of a few million people.
Speaking only for myself, the 25 years between the birth of my first child until the last went off to college were the most enjoyable of my life. And my wife agrees. She was a SAHM until the youngest was 12, so about 20 years. And then she went back to work, having retrained as a translator.
I am by no means convinced that the birth rate won’t rebound when the population cohorts get small. A lot will get easier.
I was born in 1937, the depth of the depression. One result was that everything was easier. My school classes were smaller than after the baby boom. When I applied to college, it was easy to get in. Schools had expanded to accomodate the GIs and had extra capacity. No way with my good, but not superior record would I have a prayer of getting into an Ivy today, or even ten years later. When I was looking for a job, there were jobs galore (universities had to make space for the boomers) and I even had a totally unsolicited offer from Penn State.
My point is that a declining population will create opportunities that will encourage kids.
Another point I would like to make is that immigration backlash in Europe, in the US and maybe Canada is leading to far right governments. The new government in Austria is described as pro-Russian.