# Is there any reason to believe 2016 won't be a landslide victory for the Democrats? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 27, 2014, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737 "2014-09-27T19:53:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/221 "2014-10-22T01:58:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Perhaps you missed the lack of Obama campaigning. Perhaps you could try addressing a point instead of partisan spewage. > [@](#): > > You’re absolutely right, but you’re missing the point. Clinton was just as indestructible in 2008 and fell short. Obama isn’t a Republican. The point, once again, is that \*you \*can’t beat her. > [@](#): > > Her weaknesses, namely her artificialness and her caution, will be used against her You know as well as anyone what you _will_ try to use, and it isn’t _that_. :rolleyes: > [@](#): > > We’ve got a much deeper bench than your side does. But the guys you keep naming as your \*best \*are the likes of Christie and Jindal. 😃 You’re funny, and not in the good way, either. > [@](#): > > Oh yeah, because there are no successful Republicans anywhere in the country. You’ve got some serious partisan blinders on. Christie and Jindal. 😃 > [@](#): > > I can hate what the Democrats stand for If you could point out what that is, other than their not being Republicans, you might not get as much laughter. > [@](#): > > I think at this point most of you recognize that without a celebrity, you won’t get any turnout. Now you’re just getting sad. > [@](#): > > I cheer for the party of fiscal conservatism and good government. No, you don’t. You cheer for the other ones. Your claim is based on partisan bluster, but is in opposition to the facts. > [@](#): > > Whoever that is in any given election. That doesn’t change election to election, but generation to generation. “The party of fiscal conservatism and good government” is the one you oppose for the sake of opposition. > [@](#): > > I’ve said before that I’ll support Clinton if the GOP nominee is someone who I find unserious or unready. Like Christie or Jindal, for instance? 😃 > [@](#): > > But the party under Obama has not been one of fiscal conservatism nor good government. It’s been the liberal version of George Bush: incompetence, cronyism, lack of accountability. Chicago politics brought to DC. “And _you’re_ a great American” :D:D:D ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/222 "2014-10-22T02:02:48Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > For Presidential politics, the Democratic nominee will use Obama for what he does best – get minorities to turn out. I see no reason why he won’t be able to continue this… once people vote, they’re much more likely to vote again. Oh, definitely, but that wasn’t the point. I’m sure McCain could have used GWB to turn out the evangelical vote, but he still had to overcome GWB’s unpopularity and fell short. > [@](#): > > Unless the GOP has an Obama/Bill Clinton level political talent stashed away somewhere, these problems aren’t likely to repeat themselves. An A+ Obama barely beat a B+ Hillary. I don’t know if the Republicans have anyone better than a C+ in political talent, if that. It’s not the talent of the candidate that matters, it’s the talent of the campaign manager. You don’t think the GOP has more Lee Atwaters and Karl Roves? The GOP wasn’t only successful because of oppo research, which admittedly is useless against Clinton. They were successful because they also pushed a clear message whereas the Democrat often pushed a muddled message. Clinton had no clear 2008 narrative. Obama did. Will she find on in 2016? IT won’t be “change”. > [@](#): > > Once they’re on the national state, then absolutely (especially with Jindal). IT’s the difference between John Kerry and Michael Dukakis and Barack Obama. Obama brought out new voters. Kerry and Dukakis didn’t. > [@](#): > > Sure we could, if Hillary doesn’t run, or if she falters. O’Malley and others are quite politically talented, and haven’t said ridiculous things like Jindal has. I’ve rarely heard of a candidate getting defeated just because he said some ridiculous things some time ago. Actually, never. > [@](#): > > So says Hannity, but not reality. The media narrative is on my side on this one, as is public opinion. If you are privy to some higher truth, it’s high time you started explaining it rather than just denying what most people have already figured out. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/223 "2014-10-22T02:12:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m sure McCain could have used GWB to turn out the evangelical vote, but he still had to overcome GWB’s unpopularity and fell short. You think McCain lost because _the evangelicals didn’t turn out_? _Really_? 😉 > [@](#): > > It’s not the talent of the candidate that matters, it’s the talent of the campaign manager. A moment ago you were telling us about celebrities. > [@](#): > > You don’t think the GOP has more Lee Atwaters and Karl Roves? If you meant dishonest, ruthless, power-is-everything people, then yes, certainly. That’s \*all \*you have. > [@](#): > > They were successful because they also pushed a clear message whereas the Democrat often pushed a muddled message. “No” is a clear message that appeals to the intellectually lazy or overwhelmed, “Here’s just a few of the many things we need to accomplish” can seem muddled to them, yes. > [@](#): > > IT’s the difference between John Kerry and Michael Dukakis and Barack Obama. Obama brought out new voters. Kerry and Dukakis didn’t. Is that why Jindal seems so attractive to you? 😉 > [@](#): > > I’ve rarely heard of a candidate getting defeated just because he said some ridiculous things some time ago. Actually, never. There is not going to be a shortage of your guys saying ridiculous things. > [@](#): > > The media narrative is on my side on this one, as is public opinion. In Hannityland, maybe so. But you do need to change the channel once in a while. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/224 "2014-10-22T02:17:40Z")
Yeah, the NY Times, Washington Post, Chris MAtthews, Leon Panetta, Robert Gibson, that’s the vast right wing conspiracy for you. Seriously, both of you. Get off this board. I don’t mean that in the “Go away” way, but the “expand your horizons” way. Your ignorance is not being fought by being primarily around people who believe as you do, and it’s obvious you aren’t seeking out even mainstream news sources if you’ve missed the fact that both the media and the public regard the President as incompetent and dishonest. Actually, you probably aren’t reading much of the liberal media either for that matter. SDMB might be the last place where the President is still regarded as a good President. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/225 "2014-10-22T02:23:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Your ignorance is not being fought by being primarily around people who believe as you do If it’s ignorance, it’s certainly not being fought by _you_, is it? > [@](#): > > it’s obvious you aren’t seeking out even mainstream news sources if you’ve missed the fact that both the media and the public regard the President as incompetent and dishonest. That’s a fact, huh? 😉 > [@](#): > > Actually, you probably aren’t reading much of the liberal media either for that matter. SDMB might be the last place where the President is still regarded as a good President. And _you’re_ a great American! No, nobody’s leaving the board, the way \*you \*did after the last election in which you were spewing the same sort of nonsense you are today. You can project all you want, but that doesn’t constitute fighting ignorance, ignorance like claiming the party of opposition and shutdowns is the party of “fiscal responsibility and good government”. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/226 "2014-10-22T02:31:09Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > If it’s ignorance, it’s certainly not being fought by _you_, is it? So what? People a lot better than I have written extensively about the administration’s competence and honesty issues, and they aren’t all conservatives. Or perhaps you think him being off the campaign trail is just because he’s so darn busy.😃 Anyway, some polling data, since maybe data will fight your ignorance: [http://cnsnews.com/sites/default/files/documents/Obama\_Qualities\_Characteristics\_140612.pdf](http://cnsnews.com/sites/default/files/documents/Obama_Qualities_Characteristics_140612.pdf) From a Gallup poll: Is honest and trustworty: 47-51 against Can effectively manage the government: 39-60 against Now poll data does not prove that the President is incompetent and dishonest, but given the numerous examples of both cited again and again and which have made headline news(which I’m sure even you didn’t miss, you had to have accidentally turned on CNN or seen a NY Times headline somewhere), I think at this point the burden is on those who disagree to explain why they think that judgment against the President is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/227 "2014-10-22T02:34:44Z")
It takes a heapin’ helpin’ of ignorance to think Obama is running. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/228 "2014-10-22T02:40:27Z")
Yeah, just like Bush wasn’t running in 2008. Clinton will be portrayed as Obama’s third term, to which your response was to wonder what’s wrong with that. It’s now been explained to you. Now if you’re shifting your argument to Obama NOT being a factor in 2016, well, a buttload of history argues against that as well. Hillary Clinton can only wish she was as popular as John McCain was in 2000 and 2004. He could have been President easily if he’d been the general election nominee in either of those years. He was so popular the Democrats wanted him as their VP nominee in 2004. But Bush was just too much weight on his shoulders by 2008. Clinton faces the same headwinds, except she’s never been as popular as JOhn McCain was at his peak. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/229 "2014-10-22T02:45:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Clinton will be portrayed as Obama’s third term Yes, you’ll try, and to whatever extent that works, it will \*help \*her. But your comments about Obama’s alleged unpopularity (you never compare it to your own team’s, notably) are still irrelevant partisan spewage. > [@](#): > > It’s now been explained to you. Oh dear, you don’t know the difference between asserting and explaining, do you? > [@](#): > > Hillary Clinton can only wish she was as popular as John McCain was in 2000 and 2004. Her approvals have been in the 60% range for a long time. You have no one who could even dream of that. But you’re still a great American! ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/230 "2014-10-22T02:56:43Z")
You do realize, **adaher** , that so far you have never been right even once. About anything involving politics. Ever. Right? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/231 "2014-10-22T03:01:26Z")
The real issue is that no party can hold the presidency for more than 8-16 years nowadays, max. The desire for variety kicks in and voters want change. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/232 "2014-10-22T03:02:53Z")
Really? The Republicans last legitimately won in 1988. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/233 "2014-10-22T03:03:33Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Yes, you’ll try, and to whatever extent that works, it will \*help \*her. But your comments about Obama’s alleged unpopularity (you never compare it to your own team’s, notably) are still irrelevant partisan spewage. It will help her? Wow. As for comparing popularity, how is the relative unpopularity of the Republican party helping the Democrats right now? Oh, it’s helping, it just means that instead of losing 12 seats they are only losing 7-8. So Clinton will lose by 3 instead of 10(not an official adaher prediction). > [@](#): > > Oh dear, you don’t know the difference between asserting and explaining, do you? I gave you poll data. That goes just a big beyond mere assertion. > [@](#): > > Her approvals have been in the 60% range for a long time. You have no one who could even dream of that. It’s not 60% now, and McCain was even more popular. Are you seriously this unaware of the relative popularity of your candidates? The most recent poll had her down to 55%. Her overall +/- is +19. [http://pollingreport.com/hrc.htm](http://pollingreport.com/hrc.htm) John McCain, just before the 2006 election was +30. [http://pollingreport.com/l.htm#McCain](http://pollingreport.com/l.htm#McCain) Now, explain to me again how Obama isn’t going to drag her down the way Bush dragged McCain down. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/234 "2014-10-22T03:05:18Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > You do realize, **adaher** , that so far you have never been right even once. About anything involving politics. Ever. Right? That’s a pretty broad statement. If you’re referring to my predictions, I’ve made exactly one. I’ve made a few more about 2014. I even started a thread about it. If you’ve got balls, add your predictions. Your argument is childish. It almost seems like you’re clutching yourself, reassuring yourself that everything will be okay because adaher is the one who predicted doom, and he’s never right. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/235 "2014-10-22T03:06:58Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Really? The Republicans last legitimately won in 1988. Did the Cardinals “legitimately” win the 2011 World Series? I mean, they came \*this \*close to losing… ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/236 "2014-10-22T03:11:15Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Really? The Republicans last legitimately won in 1988. More delusion. 2004 was also a legitimate win. Even if I gave you Ohio, Kerry fell short by 3 million votes, plus we have to also revisit Wisconsin, which went for Kerry and also had irregularities. And we’re also looking at very small sample sizes here. Exactly three Democrats have won Presidential elections since 1988: Clinton, Gore, Obama. Aside from Hillary Clinton, do the hopefuls in 2014 look more like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, or more like John Kerry? And guess what the two Democrats aside from Gore had in common? They succeeded, and heavily ran against, an unpopular GOP incumbent. Gore attempted to succeed a popular Democratic incumbent and still made it just too damn close. Hillary Clinton won’t be running to succeed her 60% approval rating husband. She’ll be running to succeed Mr. 40% instead. If she succeeds, she’ll have bucked history in more ways than just being the first female President. Oh wait, I forgot, the American public loves Barack Obama and that will reflect well on Mrs. Clinton. Sorry, I wasn’t accounting for the World According to Elvis. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/237 "2014-10-22T03:18:21Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > More delusion. 2004 was also a legitimate win. Even if I gave you Ohio, Kerry fell short by 3 million votes So popular vote mattered in 2004 but not 2000, that’s your point? 😉 > [@](#): > > Wisconsin, which went for Kerry and also had irregularities. No, it did not, although you guys tried to pretend there were to distract from what you did in Ohio. Etc. And that still shows you’re not getting the broader point, are you? > [@](#): > > Oh wait, I forgot, the American public loves Barack Obama and that will reflect well on Mrs. Clinton. And you’re a great American! > [@](#): > > Sorry, I wasn’t accounting for the World According to Elvis. How are you coming on the project to recognize that there really was a 2012? Any progress to report yet? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/238 "2014-10-22T03:23:52Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > So popular vote mattered in 2004 but not 2000, that’s your point? 😉 Actually, I gave 2000 to Gore as a win. Popular vote may not be how our elections are decided, but it does matter, as it’s an indication of support and can predict where things are headed in the future. The fact that Democrats have won the popular vote in what, 5 out of the last 6 elections? Is very significant. But in 2004, they didn’t. If the GOP wins by 3 million votes in 2016, 95% chance they win the election. basically, the goal for Democrats in 2016 will be to try to turn out the same voters who voted in 2012. The Republicans will be trying to match their 2004 performance. Both have a plausible path towards accomplishing that, although if Obama is still stuck at 40% approval, much as in 2014 the Republicans will have the easier path. Listen to the wisdom of your President: his name doesn’t have to be on the ballot for him to be what an election is about, and that applies to 2016 just like it applies to 2014. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/239 "2014-10-22T03:26:58Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > So popular vote mattered in 2004 but not 2000, that’s your point? The outcome is the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/240 "2014-10-22T03:29:30Z")
And let’s keep in mind a very unpleasant fact for Democrats: In the Obama era, they have failed to turn out in every single non-Presidential election. If 2014 shows a continuance of that trend, then it means one of two things, one bad, the other catastrophic: 1. Democrats don’t come out for non-Presidential elections, which means that a majority of state governments will be Republican for the forseeable future, and that they will never be able to hold Congress for more than two years. 2. Democrats don’t come out if Obama is not on the ballot, which means they are screwed until they find the next Obama. Remember that as recently as 2004, Democrats were wondering just why they couldn’t win anything. Bush’s unpopularity and Obama’s star power changed all that, but both factors are very temporary conditions. The Democrats have not yet proved that they can win without major breaks going their way. 2016 will either prove that they can win under difficult circumstances, or it will prove that despite their fond wishes of demographic dominance, for the time being they are utterly screwed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737.md?page=13)