# Is there any reason to believe 2016 won't be a landslide victory for the Democrats? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 27, 2014, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737 "2014-09-27T19:53:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/261 "2014-10-22T17:33:09Z")
I disagree that either were mediocre. In McCain’s case it was just the worst possible time. The Presidency was his for the taking in 2000 and 2004 had he been able to win the GOP nomination. In general election polls he smoked the Democratic opposition. His approval/disapproval in late 2006 was +30. Bush killed his candidacy in 2008 as surely as he did it in 2000. Romney was a fine candidate, but as we’re learning with Purdue’s candidacy in Georgia, Democrats have a brutally effective attack against business owner candidates who outsourced or laid people off. We didn’t know how effective that would be in 2012, but I guess now we know. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/262 "2014-10-22T17:36:41Z")
But just wait until Bobby Jindal gets the nomination. That’ll show us all but good, won’t it? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/263 "2014-10-22T17:37:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I disagree that either were mediocre. In McCain’s case it was just the worst possible time. The Presidency was his for the taking in 2000 and 2004 had he been able to win the GOP nomination. In general election polls he smoked the Democratic opposition. His approval/disapproval in late 2006 was +30. Bush killed his candidacy in 2008 as surely as he did it in 2000. McCain killed his own candidacy. I don’t think he would have won, but the race would have been much, much closer if he hadn’t nominated Palin and hadn’t said so many stupid things. > [@](#): > > Romney was a fine candidate, but as we’re learning with Purdue’s candidacy in Georgia, Democrats have a brutally effective attack against business owner candidates who outsourced or laid people off. We didn’t know how effective that would be in 2012, but I guess now we know. Romney was not a very good candidate. No ability to emote and connect to people, and another habit of saying really stupid things, politically speaking. He ran a poor campaign. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/264 "2014-10-22T17:39:51Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > But just wait until Bobby Jindal gets the nomination. That’ll show us all but good, won’t it? I think you’ll be very surprised. Young, a policy wonk, amiable. I think he’ll do very well. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/265 "2014-10-22T17:41:07Z")
And there we have an official \*\*adaher \*\*prediction. Link that post, people, you’ll want to refer to it later. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/266 "2014-10-22T17:41:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I think you’ll be very surprised. Young, a policy wonk, amiable. I think he’ll do very well. LOL. He’s young, I’ll give you that. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/267 "2014-10-22T17:42:26Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > McCain killed his own candidacy. I don’t think he would have won, but the race would have been much, much closer if he hadn’t nominated Palin and hadn’t said so many stupid things. Old white guy vs. young black guy who’d make history if he won = McCain didn’t stand a chance. As for the selection of Palin, he had little choice. When a team that’s losing by four touchdowns starts throwing Hail Marys, the Hail Marys aren’t the reason it lost. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/268 "2014-10-22T17:42:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > McCain killed his own candidacy. I don’t think he would have won, but the race would have been much, much closer if he hadn’t nominated Palin and hadn’t said so many stupid things. Okay, I can concede that. Reading Game Change, I was struck by how impulsive McCain was. Although I did get a kick at how his unpredictability made Obama’s team go into bedwetting mode. Not Obama, himself of course, damn his coolness under fire! > [@](#): > > Romney was not a very good candidate. No ability to emote and connect to people, and another habit of saying really stupid things, politically speaking. He ran a poor campaign. I think his campaign was so-so, and so-so can win elections. After all, not all of our Presidents have been inspiring or able to connect with people. And he was clearly better than any of the alternatives other than John Huntsman, another guy who I think would have won had the GOP base been willing to nominate him. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/269 "2014-10-22T17:44:09Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Old white guy vs. young black guy who’d make history if he won = McCain didn’t stand a chance. Of course – being black helps one in politics! Must be why we have had so many black presidents and senators. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/270 "2014-10-22T17:45:29Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Old white guy vs. young black guy who’d make history if he won = McCain didn’t stand a chance. Before the Lehman debacle and McCain’s really dumb reaction to it, he was leading or tied in the polls. McCain didn’t really have much of a chance in 2008, but given the weight Bush was putting on the Republican Party’s hopes, McCain was the only guy who would even come as close as he did. Obama would have beaten Romney in 2008 by 10 points. > [@](#): > > As for the selection of Palin, he had little chance. When a team that’s losing by four touchdowns starts throwing Hail Marys, the Hail Marys aren’t the reason it lost. I agree with this, but they still should have vetted her better. I actually have no problem with Palin’s qualifications for office, she was, after all, the most popular governor in America, so she must have been doing something right up there. But she was totally unsuited to a Presidential campaign and she went totally to pieces almost immediately. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/271 "2014-10-22T17:47:05Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Of course – being black helps one in politics! In 2008, the prospect of making history gave great momentum to the Obama campaign. Young voters, especially, were enthusiastic and excited. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/272 "2014-10-22T17:49:20Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Of course – being black helps one in politics! Must be why we have had so many black presidents and senators. Be honest now. If he had been Barack Goldstein from Chicago, would he have been given the 2004 keynote speech? Would anyone give a shit about him? This is one case where contradictory things are true. Being black can hurt him, but it also made him. Just ask Joe Biden: “I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,” Biden said. “I mean, that’s a storybook, man.” On the other hand, I do believe there are a lot of white voters who won’t vote for him because he’s black. And there are a lot of white, and black voters for that matter who voted for him because he was black. [http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/31/biden.obama/](http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/31/biden.obama/) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/273 "2014-10-22T17:50:19Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > In 2008, the prospect of making history gave great momentum to the Obama campaign. Young voters, especially, were enthusiastic and excited. His being black and being named “Barack Hussein Obama” ruled out a big chunk of voters from ever supporting him. If he was white and named Barry Hugh Bannon, he would have been a Senator before he was 30, and President before he was 40, considering his enormous political talent. And most of those young voters would still have supported him. Minority turnout would have been a bit lower, but he would have been instantly acceptable to white working class voters, and might have won states like West Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/274 "2014-10-22T17:51:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Be honest now. If he had been Barack Goldstein from Chicago, would he have been given the 2004 keynote speech? Would anyone give a shit about him? He probably would have given the 1996 speech, as a sitting Senator, and run for President in 2000 and won big. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/275 "2014-10-22T17:53:40Z")
Politically speaking, Obama was Jackie Robinson. Jackie wasn’t just a good baseball player – he was so good it almost wasn’t fair. And he had to be the very best to have a chance at being accepted. Obama wasn’t just a decent black politician, he was one of the best political talents in recent history. White politicians with his talent (Kennedy, Clinton, Reagan) become Presidents nearly at will. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/276 "2014-10-22T17:54:15Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > His being black and being named “Barack Hussein Obama” ruled out a big chunk of voters from ever supporting him. His race motivated some to vote for him and some to vote against him, but I think the former significantly outnumbered the latter, thus yielding a net advantage. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If he was white and named Barry Hugh Bannon, he would have been a Senator before he was 30 I think you have to be 30 first. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/277 "2014-10-22T17:56:23Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > His race motivated some to vote for him and some to vote against him, but I think the former significantly outnumbered the latter, thus yielding a net advantage. I think it’s the opposite, probably by far. Had he been white, I think the landslide would have been close to 1984 levels. > [@](#): > > I think you have to be 30 first. I stand corrected. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/278 "2014-10-22T17:58:16Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I think you have to be 30 first. AIUI, you can be elected earlier, but you can’t take your seat until then. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/279 "2014-10-22T18:01:53Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > AIUI, you can be elected earlier, but you can’t take your seat until then. I see. Wonder if it’s the same for the Presidency at 35. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/280 "2014-10-22T18:02:42Z")
If he’d been white, no way he gets past Hillary Clinton. And great political talent? I think Biden called that one. His talent has always been vastly overrated. Jackie Robinson wasn’t even close to being the best black ballplayer. Satchel Paige, Josh Gibson, and about twenty other guys in the Negro Leagues were better than he was. Robinson was chosen because he was a well adjusted guy who wouldn’t punch out the first white guy who mistreated him and he wouldn’t screw it up for future black players by getting into trouble off the field like Josh Gibson did, being that he was a mean drunk and all. Likewise, Obama was special because he wasn’t Maxine Waters, or Cynthia McKinney, or William Jefferson, or Jessie Jackson. He was special because he was post-racial and not going to make every political dispute about his race. And at least as far as that goes, I think he’s lived up to the image. The CBC has never been fully satisfied with him, which means he’s doing his job right in that regard. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737.md?page=15)