# Is there any reason to believe 2016 won't be a landslide victory for the Democrats? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 27, 2014, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737 "2014-09-27T19:53:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/281 "2014-10-22T18:10:51Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think it’s the opposite, probably by far. Had he been white, I think the landslide would have been close to 1984 levels. We’ll just have to agree to disagree, I’m afraid. There’s always intrigue, zest and excitement whenever history can be made for the first time. Think “first time to the Moon,” “first NFL team to go 16-0,” etc. Obama’s race made him an even more interesting candidate than he would have been if white. If white, he’d have been seen as just another Democrat, albeit a very good orator/campaigner, but no history-maker. Don’t get me wrong, Bush’s unpopularity virtually guaranteed Democratic victory no matter what, but Obama’s 2008 campaign was given a kick in the afterburners by being historically special. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/282 "2014-10-22T18:11:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If he’d been white, no way he gets past Hillary Clinton. LOL. It wouldn’t have even been close – Barry Bannon would have won easily. But he would have already been President by then. > [@](#): > > And great political talent? I think Biden called that one. His talent has always been vastly overrated. Perhaps by the people with extreme personal dislike of him, like you, but as objectively as one can rate political skill (in terms of the ability to win elections), Obama is definitely up there with Clinton/Reagan/Kennedy. > [@](#): > > Jackie Robinson wasn’t even close to being the best black ballplayer. Satchel Paige, Josh Gibson, and about twenty other guys in the Negro Leagues were better than he was. Robinson was chosen because he was a well adjusted guy who wouldn’t punch out the first white guy who mistreated him and he wouldn’t screw it up for future black players by getting into trouble off the field like Josh Gibson did, being that he was a mean drunk and all. Robinson was comparable to the best, and he was head and shoulders above most white players at the time. > [@](#): > > Likewise, Obama was special because he wasn’t Maxine Waters, or Cynthia McKinney, or William Jefferson, or Jessie Jackson. He was special because he was post-racial and not going to make every political dispute about his race. Neither does Jim Clyburn, Emanuel Cleaver, or many other black politicians (not that the ones you name actually make every dispute about race, though McKinney is a nutbar). He was special because of his talent, youth, energy, and his ability to communicate. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/283 "2014-10-22T18:14:08Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > We’ll just have to agree to disagree, I’m afraid. There’s always intrigue, zest and excitement whenever history can be made for the first time. Imagine first time to the Moon, first NFL team to go 16-0, etc. It wasn’t just chance… there have been plenty of solid black politicians before Obama. But no extra-special talents, at least not since MLK Jr., who never ran for office (and considering the country at the time, never could have won a national election). > [@](#): > > Obama’s race made him a far more interesting candidate than he would have been if white. Interesting, sure. > [@](#): > > If white, he’d have been seen as just another Democrat, albeit a good orator/campaigner, but no history-maker. No, not a history maker, but a world-class political talent nonetheless. He would have been unstoppable in the primary and dominant in the general election. > [@](#): > > Don’t get me wrong, Bush’s unpopularity virtually guaranteed Democratic victory no matter what, but Obama’s 2008 campaign was given a kick in the afterburners by being historically special. If it hadn’t been so “special”, his margin of victory would have been larger. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/284 "2014-10-22T18:25:42Z")
I’ll note that the majority of black Democrats didn’t support Obama at the beginning of the primary in 2008 – polling suggested they did not think he had a chance to win. It wasn’t until he won the lily-white state of Iowa that he gained the support of the majority of black Democrats. If Obama hadn’t been a special political talent, he never would have won a lily-white state like Iowa before he had competed in any other state for the nomination. Jim Clyburn would never have won Iowa, nor would any of the other solid, non-nutty black Democratic office-holders. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/285 "2014-10-22T23:28:00Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’ll note that the majority of black Democrats didn’t support Obama at the beginning of the primary in 2008 – polling suggested they did not think he had a chance to win. It wasn’t until he won the lily-white state of Iowa that he gained the support of the majority of black Democrats. That’s part of it, but don’t forget Bill Clinton’s performance in South Carolina. > [@](#): > > If Obama hadn’t been a special political talent, he never would have won a lily-white state like Iowa before he had competed in any other state for the nomination. Jim Clyburn would never have won Iowa, nor would any of the other solid, non-nutty black Democratic office-holders. I shouldn’t have said he wasn’t a special political talent, just not a once in a lifetime political talent such that if he had been of the majority race he would have been lost in the shuffle of other talented young politicians. Obama was being judged against other black officeholders, as Biden’s statement observes. Plus the math alone says that a white Obama couldn’t have beaten Clinton, since African-Americans loved the Clintons and wouldn’t have jumped on the bandwagon of some white upstart. A white Obama would have basically been John Edwards. Talented, charming, a definite prospect, and very possibly a President at some point. But Obama was not Ronald Reagan. Reagan truly was a once in a lifetime talent which we hadn’t seen since FDR. Obama can give a speech, but he hasn’t been good at motivating Americans to do anything more than vote for him. And now we’re starting to see liberals write handwringing articles about how cynicism and malaise are taking over, as if that’s the new normal and has nothing to do with our nation’s leadership. That’s another reason I don’t see a landslide for Dems in 2016. When liberals start lamenting how cynical and jaded we are and how dysfunctional our institutions are, that’s usually a sign that we’re headed for a Republican Presidency. Because that’s exactly the script we saw in 1980. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/286 "2014-10-22T23:32:16Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’ll note that the majority of black Democrats didn’t support Obama at the beginning of the primary in 2008 – polling suggested they did not think he had a chance to win. I think it’s because many people had misgivings about a young Senator running for the Presidency before he was even through his first term. Obama struck many as ‘inexperienced.’ ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/287 "2014-10-22T23:36:20Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I think it’s because many people had misgivings about a young Senator running for the Presidency before he was even through his first term. Obama struck many as ‘inexperienced.’ That’s not why most black Democrats didn’t support him from the beginning. Things changed rather quickly after Obama won Iowa, which (on top of what voters actually said in the polls about why) is a good indication that they were just pessimistic that he had any chance at all. Once it was pretty clear Obama actually appealed to a lot of white Democrats, then most black Democrats jumped onboard. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/288 "2014-10-22T23:41:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s part of it, but don’t forget Bill Clinton’s performance in South Carolina. I think that had very little to do with the result. > [@](#): > > I shouldn’t have said he wasn’t a special political talent, just not a once in a lifetime political talent such that if he had been of the majority race he would have been lost in the shuffle of other talented young politicians. He wasn’t just a talented young politician, he was an especially and almost uniquely talented young politician. > [@](#): > > Obama was being judged against other black officeholders, as Biden’s statement observes. He was also judged against Clinton and Edwards, and against the potential Republican opponents. > [@](#): > > Plus the math alone says that a white Obama couldn’t have beaten Clinton, since African-Americans loved the Clintons and wouldn’t have jumped on the bandwagon of some white upstart. Assuming he had the same message, he would have attracted plenty of black Democrats, and far, far more white Democrats. The math would have worked fine for him. > [@](#): > > A white Obama would have basically been John Edwards. Not even close. > [@](#): > > Talented, charming, a definite prospect, and very possibly a President at some point. But Obama was not Ronald Reagan. Reagan truly was a once in a lifetime talent which we hadn’t seen since FDR. Obama can give a speech, but he hasn’t been good at motivating Americans to do anything more than vote for him. Like I said, you’re not capable of judging Obama objectively. > [@](#): > > And now we’re starting to see liberals write handwringing articles about how cynicism and malaise are taking over, as if that’s the new normal and has nothing to do with our nation’s leadership. We’ve always seen liberals do this, under every recent President, including this one. We also see plenty of liberals write praise-filled articles. > [@](#): > > That’s another reason I don’t see a landslide for Dems in 2016. When liberals start lamenting how cynical and jaded we are and how dysfunctional our institutions are, that’s usually a sign that we’re headed for a Republican Presidency. Because that’s exactly the script we saw in 1980. I’m not sure there will be a landslide either, but your analysis as to why is ridiculous. It’s too early to say either way, but there’s a demographic mountain to climb for the future GOP candidate. I see no evidence that the GOP is making any changes whatsoever to appeal to any demographics other than older white men. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/289 "2014-10-22T23:43:27Z")
It wasn’t only because they didn’t think he could win. There were also doubts about whether he shared the black experience, if you watched political talking heads at the time. He was biracial, raised in a white family, no close African-American relatives. Here in South Florida, there’s a pretty big divide culturally between Caribbean immigrants and their children and African-Americans. In Democratic primaries, Haitian and Jamaican candidates can’t win African-American support unless they are the only black candidate. So don’t underestimate that there were doubts about OBama’s race among the black community just as much as there was in the white community, if not moreso. Clinton failed to learn from the experience of being the “First black President”. He attacked Obama the same way he was attacked when he was in office and created a lot of sympathy for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/290 "2014-10-22T23:48:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It wasn’t only because they didn’t think he could win. There were also doubts about whether he shared the black experience, if you watched political talking heads at the time. The political talking heads were wrong here (as they often are). This might have been a “concern” among white talking heads, but it was not much of a concern among black leadership or black Democrats. > [@](#): > > He was biracial, raised in a white family, no close African-American relatives. Here in South Florida, there’s a pretty big divide culturally between Caribbean immigrants and their children and African-Americans. In Democratic primaries, Haitian and Jamaican candidates can’t win African-American support unless they are the only black candidate. So don’t underestimate that there were doubts about OBama’s race among the black community just as much as there was in the white community, if not moreso. I don’t believe these doubts were significant, and I don’t believe they lasted beyond hearing him speak. > [@](#): > > Clinton failed to learn from the experience of being the “First black President”. He attacked Obama the same way he was attacked when he was in office and created a lot of sympathy for Obama. This is true, but I don’t believe it was a hugely significant part of the result. It’s not like Hillary would have done better without Bill. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/291 "2014-10-22T23:50:52Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > We’ve always seen liberals do this, under every recent President, including this one. We also see plenty of liberals write praise-filled articles. we see it only when there is a Democratic President who isn’t doing a very good job. Then, it’s not the President’s fault, it’s “institutions” and “public cynicism”. When a Democrat is successful like Clinton, there’s obviously not much to complain about, and when a Republican is President, they can just freely be outraged and blame him. > [@](#): > > I’m not sure there will be a landslide either, but your analysis as to why is ridiculous. It’s too early to say either way, but there’s a demographic mountain to climb for the future GOP candidate. I see no evidence that the GOP is making any changes whatsoever to appeal to any demographics other than older white men. At this point it’s more of a speedbump. There are so many plausible paths to victory in 2016: win a few more white votes. Win a few more Latino votes. Win a few more Asian votes. Win a few more black votes(they could hardly do worse than 2008 and 2012 in that regard and are unlikely to do as poorly among black voters in 2016). Win more young voters. The GOP’s performance was unusually poor in 2008 and 2012 among those groups. Liberals would like to believe that’s the “new normal” because the GOP is crazy and racist and all that, but the midterm data says otherwise: [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1) [http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president](http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president) African-Americans: 2010- 89-9, 2012- 93-7 Latinos: 2010- 60-38, 2012- 71-27 Asians: 2010- 58-40, 2012- 73-25 18-29 voters: 2010- 55-42, 2012- 60-37 Now I’m not a statistician, but I bet if Romney had merely lost by 2010 levels among minority and young voters, he’d have won. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2014, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/292 "2014-10-23T02:16:39Z")
My analysis on the impact of Obama’s race is that it got him more votes _in the states where he needed them_ than it cost him in those same states. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2014, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/293 "2014-10-23T05:19:48Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > His race motivated some to vote for him and some to vote against him, but I think the former significantly outnumbered the latter, thus yielding a net advantage. Obama won the 2008 popular vote 53-46. [An article](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/fear-of-a-black-president/309064/3/?single_page=true) I [linked to earlier](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=15763992#post15763992) describes a scientific study that concluded that “aggregating … findings nationally … Obama lost between 3 and 5 percentage points of the popular vote to racism.” I think that means that had Obama been white, he would have won by about 57-42. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2014, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/294 "2014-10-23T06:49:06Z")
No, because you also have to account for fewer black and younger voters turning out. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2014, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/295 "2014-10-23T09:05:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No, because you also have to account for fewer black and younger voters turning out. That was taken into account. It was still a net negative for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2014, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/296 "2014-10-26T07:33:46Z")
Since we discussed the competence earlier, and discuss it often, and since you doubt pundits are saying that he’s incompetent here’s Chris Matthews yesterday: > [@](#): > > CHRIS MATTHEWS: Do you think Obama is ready to change in his last two years and become a real chief executive, not just a really good speech giver, or an inspirational leader, but actually accept the job of running the U.S. government? Is he ready to take that job on every day, 24/7, I’m the guy running this place? Is he ready to do that? [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/10/24/chris\_matthews\_do\_you\_think\_obama\_is\_ready\_to\_change\_and\_become\_a\_real\_chief\_executive\_not\_just\_a\_good\_speech\_giver.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/10/24/chris_matthews_do_you_think_obama_is_ready_to_change_and_become_a_real_chief_executive_not_just_a_good_speech_giver.html) Keep in mind that he’s asking if Obama’s ready to be the chief executive six years into his administration. Just calling him incompetent might have been kinder. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2014, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/297 "2014-10-26T12:19:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Since we discussed the competence earlier, and discuss it often, and since you doubt pundits are saying that he’s incompetent here’s Chris Matthews yesterday: > > [Chris Matthews: "Do You Think Obama Is Ready To Change And Become A Real Chief Executive, Not Just A Good Speech Giver?" | Video | RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/10/24/chris_matthews_do_you_think_obama_is_ready_to_change_and_become_a_real_chief_executive_not_just_a_good_speech_giver.html) > > Keep in mind that he’s asking if Obama’s ready to be the chief executive six years into his administration. Just calling him incompetent might have been kinder. So an idiotic talking head said something stupid? Stop the presses! ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2014, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/298 "2014-10-26T14:11:16Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So an idiotic talking head said something stupid? Stop the presses! I wouldn’t trust Tweety to give me today’s football scores without screwing it up. Who cares what he is yammering on inanely about now? ---
**Author:** ![Phu\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/77aa72/32.png) [@Phu\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phu_Cat)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2014, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/299 "2014-10-26T17:42:29Z")
Let’s see, any reason 2016 won’t be a land slide… ya mean other than Dr. Ben Carson? ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2014, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737/300 "2014-10-26T19:21:11Z")
> [@Phu\_Cat](#): > > Let’s see, any reason 2016 won’t be a land slide… ya mean other than Dr. Ben Carson? Ok, I’ll bite. Do explain. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-any-reason-to-believe-2016-wont-be-a-landslide-victory-for-the-democrats/699737.md?page=16)