# Is there much chance Obama won't be the next US president? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 10, 2012, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024 "2012-01-10T05:58:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/181 "2012-06-14T10:26:33Z")
> [@42fish](#): > > If you actually bothered to read through the article you cite, you might have noticed the following: “…further examination of the Perot vote in the Election Night exit polls not only showed that Perot siphoned votes nearly equally among Bush and Clinton,[25]…” I missed this earlier, but his statement does not contradict mine. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/182 "2012-06-14T14:37:33Z")
My prediction: Romney wins. So far on this board I have correctly predicted Bush over Gore, Bush over Kerry (despite the cadre of Board commentators loudly insisting that there was no way Bush could win, and then loudly lamenting “Jesusland” when he did), and Obama over McCain (shockingly, most of the Board’s commentators agreed with this one). **Try2B Comprehensive** - you say it’s going to be Obama winning handily. Feel like a wager? **Gangster Octopus** , you say Romney simply cannot shake his white privileged side. Want to make it interesting? Anyone else? ---
**Author:** ![Tristan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tristan/32/18058_2.png) [@Tristan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tristan)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/183 "2012-06-14T14:57:57Z")
Man, tempting, but this race is going to be so tight I can’t even begin to pick a side. As I have said before, I really wish that it wasn’t going to be that way, but republican’s will hold their noses and vote for ANYONE with an R rather than vote for a Democrat. Which is sad, but it is also exactly how they want it. My bet: To close to call, and likely settled in court. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/184 "2012-06-14T15:38:18Z")
Sheldon Adelson has announced his willingness to contribute nine figures to the Romney campaign. When asked by [Forbes](http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenbertoni/2012/06/13/exclusive-adelsons-pro-romney-donations-will-be-limitless-could-top-100m/)whether he feels guilty about one American potentially steering the fate of the presidential election, Adelson responded: “I’m against very wealthy people attempting to or influencing elections . . . But as long as it’s doable I’m going to do it." Money isn’t everything. But it’s not nothing. If Adelson is prepared to give Romney a hundred, or hundreds of millions, as he says he is, then I’d say that gives Romney at least a 3% bump in the odds. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/185 "2012-06-14T15:42:37Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Anyone else? I’ll take it, for $100 Alex. My batting record with you is pretty good, so I’m feeling confident. Romney will not win the electoral vote. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/186 "2012-06-14T15:52:34Z")
Wait, how would Hillary Clinton end up as the winner? Biden, there’s a plausible path, if something catastrophic happened to Obama (God forbid). That’s what the VP is there for, after all. But I don’t see any path for Clinton. And **Bricker** , is that an even-odds bet, or are you just taking the Romney side of the Intrade odds? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/187 "2012-06-14T15:53:44Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Wait, how would Hillary Clinton end up as the winner? Biden, there’s a plausible path, if something catastrophic happened to Obama (God forbid). That’s what the VP is there for, after all. But I don’t see any path for Clinton. Obama dies before the convention and Clinton gets the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/188 "2012-06-14T17:33:29Z")
> [@Tristan](#): > > As I have said before, I really wish that it wasn’t going to be that way, but republican’s will hold their noses and vote for ANYONE with an R rather than vote for a Democrat. Well, most will. Some would rather stay home than vote for a Mormon. ---
**Author:** ![bahia\_hombre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@bahia\_hombre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bahia_hombre)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/189 "2012-06-14T19:44:37Z")
At this point it’s really hard not to see Obama becoming a “victim” of the economy, rightly or wrongly. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/190 "2012-06-14T22:15:11Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > My prediction: Romney wins. > > So far on this board I have correctly predicted Bush over Gore, Bush over Kerry (despite the cadre of Board commentators loudly insisting that there was no way Bush could win, and then loudly lamenting “Jesusland” when he did), and Obama over McCain (shockingly, most of the Board’s commentators agreed with this one). > … > Anyone else? You sound confident, Bricker. Very confident. Will you extend me odds? I get 2 units if Obama wins, you get 1 unit if Romney does. > [@Chronos](#): > > And **Bricker** , is that an even-odds bet, or are you just taking the Romney side of the Intrade odds? Heh. …I suppose I’d be taking on some counterparty risk. 🙂 ETA: Nitpick: Actually Gore won the election in 2000: Bush was appointed by the Supreme Court. Double nitpick: well, I suppose it depends upon the terms of the original prediction. Triple: Not gonna win this fork with Bricker… ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2012, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/191 "2012-06-19T13:46:53Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > I’ll take it, for $100 Alex. My batting record with you is pretty good, so I’m feeling confident. Romney will not win the electoral vote. Actually, that’s not quite the bet I want. I am betting that by whatever method, Romney is inaugurated on or about January 20th, 2013. If the election should go to the House, he could not be said to have won the electoral vote, but he’d still be Prez. You still in? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2012, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/192 "2012-06-19T13:50:41Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > And **Bricker** , is that an even-odds bet, or are you just taking the Romney side of the Intrade odds? Even odds. > [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > You sound confident, Bricker. Very confident. Will you extend me odds? I get 2 units if Obama wins, you get 1 unit if Romney does. Nope. Not 2:1 confident. Just even money confident. And as you see, the specific terms I’m discussing remove any quibbling about who won what vote. If Romney is carried to the steps of the Capitol by the five-member majority of the Supreme Court that appointed him President even after his devastating loss to Obama, I win. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2012, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/193 "2012-06-19T13:58:43Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Actually, that’s not quite the bet I want. I am betting that by whatever method, Romney is inaugurated on or about January 20th, 2013. If the election should go to the House, he could not be said to have won the electoral vote, but he’d still be Prez. > > You still in? Nope. If the electoral vote is a tie, it’s a push. I will not let the Tea Party award you $100. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2012, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/194 "2012-06-19T14:03:15Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Nope. If the electoral vote is a tie, it’s a push. I will not let the Tea Party award you $100. OK, fair enough. Done ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2012, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/195 "2012-06-19T14:16:22Z")
Intrade’s currently showing Obama as having a 52.9% chance of winning. ETA: It shows Romney’s chances as 42.6%. ---
**Author:** ![dngnb8](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@dngnb8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dngnb8)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2012, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/196 "2012-06-19T15:42:28Z")
> [@An\_Gadai](#): > > I keep hearing about the Republican candidates but I haven’t a clue of Romney or any of them has a real chance of becoming POTUS this year. Is there any real chance Obama will be beaten (and Elendil’s Heir will owe me some money 🙂 )? I think there is a chance. This election will be more about fear. The fear of 4 more years of the same, vs, the fear of what Romney can do. The way I see it, we have Robamney ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2012, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/197 "2012-06-20T00:47:11Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Nope. Not 2:1 confident. Just even money confident. > > And as you see, the specific terms I’m discussing remove any quibbling about who won what vote. If Romney is carried to the steps of the Capitol by the five-member majority of the Supreme Court that appointed him President even after his devastating loss to Obama, I win. Oh, well if you put it _that_ way… 😃 > [@davidm](#): > > Intrade’s currently showing Obama as having a 52.9% chance of winning. > > ETA: It shows Romney’s chances as 42.6%. Let the record show that Bricker is edging slightly against the consensus. Though if he’s like me, he won’t bet if he doesn’t see a profit opportunity, so his subjective odds for Romney are probably north of 60%. It’s a meaningful prediction. Let’s see. I could buy Romney at Intrade for .426 and sell him to Bricker for .50. Hmmmmmmm. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/198 "2012-11-07T05:05:53Z")
Any body else getting money from **Bricker**? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/199 "2012-11-07T05:24:17Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Even odds. > > Nope. Not 2:1 confident. Just even money confident. > > And as you see, the specific terms I’m discussing remove any quibbling about who won what vote. If Romney is carried to the steps of the Capitol by the five-member majority of the Supreme Court that appointed him President even after his devastating loss to Obama, I win. Yeah, if that happens you win. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/200 "2012-11-07T05:42:54Z")
Just to clarify, I never came to terms with Bricker, nor did I communicate with him via PM. He owes me nothing. Also, I give him props for stating his position clearly, without smoke blowing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024.md?page=11)