# Is there much chance Obama won't be the next US president? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 10, 2012, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024 "2012-01-10T05:58:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Mouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mighty_mouse/32/7776_2.png) [@Mighty\_Mouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Mouse)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/81 "2012-01-12T01:30:14Z")
> [@An\_Gadai](#): > > I keep hearing about the Republican candidates but I haven’t a clue of Romney or any of them has a real chance of becoming POTUS this year. Is there any real chance Obama will be beaten (and Elendil’s Heir will owe me some money 🙂 )? The current odds on Ladbrokes in the UK are Obama 8/11 which computes to 57%, but the odds for the listed candidates add up to 110% (the 10% is the vig obviously). So the implied probability is something like 52%. This hasn’t changed much for the past couple of months. Romney is at 13/8 which implies 35%. Newt, Paul and Santorum are all at 4%. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/82 "2012-01-12T02:52:10Z")
> [@Mighty\_Mouse](#): > > The current odds on Ladbrokes in the UK are > > Obama 8/11 which computes to 57%, but the odds for the listed candidates add up to 110% (the 10% is the vig obviously). So the implied probability is something like 52%. This hasn’t changed much for the past couple of months. > > Romney is at 13/8 which implies 35%. Newt, Paul and Santorum are all at 4%. Has anyone calculated the odds on Obama vs. [Republican]? ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/848f3c/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_Dunlop)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/83 "2012-01-12T03:03:51Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > The GOP has a huge advantage. Their base 1) falls in line after the primaries and 2) goes out and votes. The democrats base whines about how the candidate isn’t liberal enough and votes for Nader or stays home. Political historians will note that this happened most recently in the 2008 presidential election when Democratic turnout was low and conservatives fell in line after the primaries and rallied around their not-very-conservative candidate, delivering McCain the White house. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/84 "2012-01-12T03:46:02Z")
Assuming a Romney nomination, the chances are roughly 50/50. The economy is barely trickling upward and many people barely feel it. Not to mention the deficit is still a problem. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/85 "2012-01-12T04:47:01Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > I disagree. The Republican base will be sufficiently fired up by sheer Obama hatred. They **will** turn out. Count on it. I think this is true of the Tea Partiers, anyway. From pretty close to the beginning the TP’s primary uniting force has been a hatred of Obama, so even if Romney isn’t quite what they had in mind they’ll turn out to vote against the President. I’m not so sure about evangelical types. If you’ll recall, the reason McCain picked Sarah Palin in 2008 was that he needed to shore up his cred with the religious right and picking Joe Lieberman (like he wanted to) would have made them stay home in droves. And unlike McCain, Romney is a Mormon who probably owns suits older than his pro-life stance. Even if he picks Churchy McJesuswept as his running mate he isn’t ever going to build real enthusiasm in the evangelical crowd, which means some lost votes but more importantly a damper on the ground-level church-basement organization that means so much leading up to the election. It may only add up to a few percentage points of difference, but that’s all it takes. ---
**Author:** ![Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aji_de_gallina/32/260_2.png) [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aji_de_Gallina)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/86 "2012-01-12T04:54:20Z")
Even though I still think the smart money is on Obama, the key for a GOP win is turnout more than the candidate or policies. Of course it’s the candidate and the policies that that bring the turnout, but no GOPer can win simply on message. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/87 "2012-01-12T05:06:58Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > I think this is true of the Tea Partiers, anyway. From pretty close to the beginning the TP’s primary uniting force has been a hatred of Obama, so even if Romney isn’t quite what they had in mind they’ll turn out to vote against the President. Sure, but they’re unhappy with how moderate he is now. He’s doing everything he can to highlight is conservative bona fides. What happens when he wins the nom then has to start highlighting his moderate stances to appeal to independents? From my perspective, Romney’s problem is that in order to beat Obama, he’s going to have to be the exact candidate he’s trying to convince the right he’s not. It’ll be more than the fact Romney might not be their ideological ideal. They’ll feel lied to. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/88 "2012-01-12T06:38:49Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Assuming a Romney nomination, the chances are roughly 50/50. The economy is barely trickling upward and many people barely feel it. Not to mention the deficit is still a problem. Agreed, except nobody cares electorally about the deficit. If they did, they would choose Obama, since he’s tackled the long run deficit via health care reform and Romney proposes additional tax cuts, when in reality taxes need to go upwards, even if we slash spending. There’s a twist though. It’s been almost 4 years since the beginning of the financial crisis. There’s a lot of pent-up demand for durables such as cars and even housing. So when growth restarts, the economy could grow quite fast for a couple of quarters. That could ensure Obama’s re-election depending upon timing. But Europe could also re-enter recession due to ill-thought out austerity measures. That could pull the US down with it. So the odds remain 50/50 – but we could also see a landslide in either direction. Interesting times. One X-factor is Citizen’s United. This will be the first Presidential election since the 1970s with unlimited anonymous funding of political advertisements and no caps on corporate contributions. Another is the propaganda outlet Fox News, although we’ve experienced that for a few more cycles. I call them a propaganda outfit because they consistently get their facts wrong without punishment by their audience. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/89 "2012-01-12T16:24:19Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Even though I still think the smart money is on Obama, the key for a GOP win is turnout more than the candidate or policies. Of course it’s the candidate and the policies that that bring the turnout, but no GOPer can win simply on message. It’s said that Republicans turn out consistently. It’s the Democrats whose turnout fluctuates and moves all the time. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/90 "2012-01-12T16:33:21Z")
> [@StusBlues](#): > > There was one a few years ago claiming that Bush, Jr. had the lowest IQ in Presidential history. I don’t doubt that it was originally written as a joke, but some of the dimmer bulbs of my acquaintance ran with it. And the photoshopped picture of him reading a book upside down. That came up in a staff meeting when it was explained to us how we should all vote against Bush. ---
**Author:** ![Enderw24](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ba9def/32.png) [@Enderw24](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enderw24)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/91 "2012-01-12T21:19:28Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > There is no chance that anyone will run as a third party candidate this year. None. Americans Elect would disagree with you. They’ll have a spot on all 50 state ballots. [http://www.americanselect.org/](http://www.americanselect.org/) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/92 "2012-01-12T22:26:40Z")
> [@Enderw24](#): > > Americans Elect would disagree with you. They’ll have a spot on all 50 state ballots. > > [http://www.americanselect.org/](http://www.americanselect.org/) There are at least half a dozen minor parties in America that run somebody for POTUS **every** cycle. They don’t count because they don’t matter. Only something like a Wallace or Perot or Nader insurgency counts, because it can conceivably affect the outcome **(not** because it can conceivably get the candidate elected). What makes Americans Elect more like a real third-party campaign than like a Socialist Workers’ Party candidate on the ballot? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2012, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/93 "2012-01-12T23:51:30Z")
Perhaps Obama could increase his chance of re-election [if he hired an anger translator for his speeches](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qv7k2_lc0M). ---
**Author:** ![Enderw24](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ba9def/32.png) [@Enderw24](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enderw24)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2012, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/94 "2012-01-13T19:44:33Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > There are at least half a dozen minor parties in America that run somebody for POTUS **every** cycle. They don’t count because they don’t matter. Only something like a Wallace or Perot or Nader insurgency counts, because it can conceivably affect the outcome **(not** because it can conceivably get the candidate elected). What makes Americans Elect more like a real third-party campaign than like a Socialist Workers’ Party candidate on the ballot? It depends on a lot of factors (the candidate chosen, the amount of funding they get and how effective they are at leveraging press), but I’m going to state that Americans Elect gets 3% of the popular vote, come November. That’s enough to swing a close election. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/95 "2012-01-13T20:02:56Z")
Americans Elect isn’t even a party, much less a third party. They don’t have any platform beyond “we’re not any of those other guys”. There’s always a movement like that, and they hardly ever even make it onto ballots in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2012, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/96 "2012-01-14T04:56:58Z")
> [@Enderw24](#): > > It depends on a lot of factors (the candidate chosen, the amount of funding they get and how effective they are at leveraging press), but I’m going to state that Americans Elect gets 3% of the popular vote, come November. That’s enough to swing a close election. 3%! I’ll bet they don’t get 0.3%. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/97 "2012-01-14T15:38:13Z")
> [@Enderw24](#): > > It depends on a lot of factors (the candidate chosen, the amount of funding they get and how effective they are at leveraging press), but I’m going to state that Americans Elect gets 3% of the popular vote, come November. That’s enough to swing a close election. Never heard of 'em. That’s not a good sign. They would do extremely well to get a quarter of one percent. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2012, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/98 "2012-01-14T15:45:27Z")
> [@Enderw24](#): > > It depends on a lot of factors (the candidate chosen, the amount of funding they get and how effective they are at leveraging press), but I’m going to state that Americans Elect gets 3% of the popular vote, come November. That’s enough to swing a close election. I know others have already commented but this is so over the top ridiculous that I am going to chime in as well. I am going to state that they won’t get 0.1% and won’t even come close to swinging anything. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2012, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/99 "2012-01-14T15:49:14Z")
> [@Enderw24](#): > > Americans Elect would disagree with you. They’ll have a spot on all 50 state ballots. > > [http://www.americanselect.org/](http://www.americanselect.org/) I just did a couple of minutes of research. Wiki says that they’re only on 15 State ballots so far. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2012, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/100 "2012-01-14T17:13:57Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > I know others have already commented but this is so over the top ridiculous that I am going to chime in as well. I am going to state that they won’t get 0.1% and won’t even come close to swinging anything. I don’t know if I’d go that far, but you’re probably pretty close. By way of comparison, the Libertarian Party typically gets about .2 - .3% and they’ve been around for decades, get some decent press, and have a loyal following. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024.md?page=6)