# Is there much chance Obama won't be the next US president? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 10, 2012, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024 "2012-01-10T05:58:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/161 "2012-05-15T22:05:48Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > People are pissed and they are pissed at Obama. I sincerely hope he is not re-elected. I’d really hate to think that we, as a nation and a society, would be that stupid a second time. > > But then again, no one ever lost money by underestimating the stupidity of the American voting public. After all, we did elect him the first time around. Is this going to be another one of your potshots where you drop a turd and don’t come back? Most of us are trying to have a non-partisan discussion where we handicap the election based on various factors that have and could happen. I would hate for this to be derailed by bullshit like your comment. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/162 "2012-05-15T23:06:09Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Is this going to be another one of your potshots where you drop a turd and don’t come back? Most of us are trying to have a non-partisan discussion where we handicap the election based on various factors that have and could happen. I would hate for this to be derailed by bullshit like your comment. It’s **Clothahump.** You know all that’s gonna go like water off a duck’s back. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/163 "2012-05-15T23:24:20Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It’s **Clothahump.** You know all that’s gonna go like water off a duck’s back. He wants you damn kids to get off his lawn, too. Honestly, an Obama win is looking more and more likely. It’s like the Republicans aren’t even trying anymore- or, rather, all they’re trying to do is make everyone else look worse than they do. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/164 "2012-05-15T23:25:55Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It’s **Clothahump.** You know all that’s gonna go like water off a duck’s back. Believe me, [I’ve tried.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=414639) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/165 "2012-05-15T23:27:18Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > He wants you damn kids to get off his lawn, too. > > Honestly, an Obama win is looking more and more likely. It’s like the Republicans aren’t even trying anymore- or, rather, all they’re trying to do is make everyone else look worse than they do. It’s a bit more complicated than that – they’re operating under a mind-and-values-set where they actually seem to think they’re making themselves look **better.** ---
**Author:** ![PandaBear77](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@PandaBear77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PandaBear77)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/166 "2012-05-15T23:30:21Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > People are pissed and they are pissed at Obama. I sincerely hope he is not re-elected. I’d really hate to think that we, as a nation and a society, would be that stupid a second time. > > But then again, no one ever lost money by underestimating the stupidity of the American voting public. After all, we did elect him the first time around. Hear, hear! Obama, right or wrong, is going to take the blame for the economy. Unless he pulls a hell of an October Surprise, I can see Romney coming out on top. That said I think we’re in for another Y2k style catfight. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/167 "2012-05-16T00:55:35Z")
> [@PandaBear77](#): > > That said I think we’re in for another Y2k style catfight. **Worse,** I should hope! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/168 "2012-05-16T04:48:00Z")
> [@](#): > > Obama, right or wrong, is going to take the blame for the economy. Or the credit, if it continues to recover as well as it’s doing. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/169 "2012-05-16T05:02:00Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Or the credit, if it continues to recover as well as it’s doing. Just for instance, gasoline prices are coming down. Why aren’t the people who demanded Obama do something about that giving him credit for it? It’s the asymmetry of the griping that I find disturbing. (As well as the outright hypocritical, such as condemning him for killing OBL.) ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/170 "2012-05-16T05:09:07Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > People are pissed and they are pissed at Obama. I sincerely hope he is not re-elected. I’d really hate to think that we, as a nation and a society, would be that stupid a second time. We were. Remember? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/171 "2012-05-16T06:27:51Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > People are pissed and they are pissed at Obama. I sincerely hope he is not re-elected. I’d really hate to think that we, as a nation and a society, would be that stupid a second time. You know, the above comment is unsubstantiated and wholly devoid of content. So I guess I’ll just copy and paste: it would be amiss to let this hijack go unchallenged: Not so Clothahump. The first 2 years of the Obama administration had the most productive Congress in Post War history. That’s not hyperbole: it’s simply hard to pick out an alternative (largely because Civil Rights legislation during the 1960s was passed in 2 consecutive congressional sessions). The stimulus package and the Affordable Choice Act were 2 historical pieces of legislation passed during the same Congress. [The stimulus package worked](http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/02/assessing_the_s.html), as evidenced by every major economic forecaster in the US. The Affordable Choice Act cut the long run deficit and received plaudits from health care analysts as it ended insurance company abuses such as rescission – if you pay your insurance bills, you can’t have Blue Cross yank away coverage on a technicality just because you came down with an expensive illness. These are solid, responsible policies. The troops are out of Iraq. Bin Laden is killed and his records are captured. Ending the War on Terror as a matter of rhetoric left Al Qaeda flummoxed: in the end Bin Laden was grasping at straws, hoping to rebrand his organization which had become poison during the Obama administration. When the Arab Spring appeared, their presence was trivial. Student loans were overhauled: no longer could banks capture huge and pointless administrative fees. The Lily Ledbetter Act was passed. And the auto industry was saved in the teeth of libertarian whining. All of those accomplishments were made without an ounce of Republican cooperation – their sole contribution was economic sabotage. Subsequent to 2008’s worst financial crisis in Post War history, Republicans wouldn’t seat mid-level members to the US Treasury _for longer than a year_! And it wasn’t due to any problems they had with the appointees. It was just because. ---
**Author:** ![Koxinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/4af34b/32.png) [@Koxinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koxinga)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/172 "2012-05-16T07:02:08Z")
Hey, George HW Bush won the first Gulf War, and had one of the strongest resumes of any post-war president. But the economy dipped during his watch and he let himself be perceived as out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans. Even if most of the above points were not highly debatable (Obamacare being deeply unpopular and possibly unconstitutional, for one), why do you think Obama would be immune from the prosaic voter concerns that turned GHWB out on his ear? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/173 "2012-05-16T08:47:40Z")
> [@Koxinga](#): > > Hey, George HW Bush won the first Gulf War, and had one of the strongest resumes of any post-war president. But the economy dipped during his watch and he let himself be perceived as out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans. [Ross Perot split the anti-Democrat vote in 1992](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992). If those who voted for Perot had voted for Bush, Bush would have won handily. ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/174 "2012-05-16T10:03:29Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > [Ross Perot split the anti-Democrat vote in 1992](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992). If those who voted for Perot had voted for Bush, Bush would have won handily. If you actually bothered to read through the article you cite, you might have noticed the following: “…further examination of the Perot vote in the Election Night exit polls not only showed that Perot siphoned votes nearly equally among Bush and Clinton,[25]…” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/175 "2012-05-16T23:57:06Z")
> [@42fish](#): > > If you actually bothered to read through the article you cite, you might have noticed the following: “…further examination of the Perot vote in the Election Night exit polls not only showed that Perot siphoned votes nearly equally among Bush and Clinton,[25]…” Ralph Nader in 2000, now . . . :mad: ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2012, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/176 "2012-05-17T02:42:18Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > You know, the above comment is unsubstantiated and wholly devoid of content. So I guess I’ll just copy and paste: it would be amiss to let this hijack go unchallenged: > > Not so Clothahump. The first 2 years of the Obama administration had the most productive Congress in Post War history. That’s not hyperbole: it’s simply hard to pick out an alternative (largely because Civil Rights legislation during the 1960s was passed in 2 consecutive congressional sessions). > > The stimulus package and the Affordable Choice Act were 2 historical pieces of legislation passed during the same Congress. [The stimulus package worked](http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/02/assessing_the_s.html), as evidenced by every major economic forecaster in the US. The Affordable Choice Act cut the long run deficit and received plaudits from health care analysts as it ended insurance company abuses such as rescission – if you pay your insurance bills, you can’t have Blue Cross yank away coverage on a technicality just because you came down with an expensive illness. These are solid, responsible policies. > > The troops are out of Iraq. Bin Laden is killed and his records are captured. Ending the War on Terror as a matter of rhetoric left Al Qaeda flummoxed: in the end Bin Laden was grasping at straws, hoping to rebrand his organization which had become poison during the Obama administration. When the Arab Spring appeared, their presence was trivial. > > Student loans were overhauled: no longer could banks capture huge and pointless administrative fees. The Lily Ledbetter Act was passed. And the auto industry was saved in the teeth of libertarian whining. > > All of those accomplishments were made without an ounce of Republican cooperation – their sole contribution was economic sabotage. Subsequent to 2008’s worst financial crisis in Post War history, Republicans wouldn’t seat mid-level members to the US Treasury _for longer than a year_! And it wasn’t due to any problems they had with the appointees. It was just because. Let’s not forget the [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau](http://www.consumerfinance.gov/the-bureau/). Though its exact functioning is somewhat difficult to pinpoint, it does present as the kind of government-helping-the-little-guy service that people used to expect from their government. The campaign really hasn’t gotten underway at this point, and the Obama administration has not been one that trumpets its activity far and wide. I think once the public has really reviewed Obama’s record in context and compared it to the nonsense the GOP intend to do, Obama will win handily. Probably not a landslide though since so many people truly are angry and/or hurting. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/177 "2012-06-14T04:08:35Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Anyway, I’m currently giving Obama a 57% chance of re-election, due to the strengthening economy and the possibility of a upward blip in income growth. > [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > A three variable model of the economy, approval ratings and incumbancy puts Obama’s odds at 85%, assuming 2% GDP growth during the first 3 quarters and a 47% approval rating in June. [Play with the model here](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/). I give Obama a 75% chance. Intrade puts him at 60%. > > I move the model’s odds down towards 50-50 for the following reasons… Nate Silver’s 538 model, released in the past couple of weeks, gives Obama a 61.6% chance, much lower than that given by the simple 3 variable model. I trust Nate. Furthermore, I’d set lower odds than his algorithm, as I don’t think it sufficiently reflects downside economic risks. So we’re back near 50-50 land. Intrade gives Obama 53% odds, which sounds about right. They give Romney 43% odds, which seems low to me. While surprises can certainly occur, Intrade’s prices imply that the odds of neither Romney nor Obama being elected is 4.8%. I say there is only one wild card in the deck, not two. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/178 "2012-06-14T04:32:18Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Nate Silver’s 538 model, released in the past couple of weeks, gives Obama a 61.6% chance, much lower than that given by the simple 3 variable model. I trust Nate. Furthermore, I’d set lower odds than his algorithm, as I don’t think it sufficiently reflects downside economic risks. So we’re back near 50-50 land. Intrade gives Obama 53% odds, which sounds about right. They give Romney 43% odds, which seems low to me. While surprises can certainly occur, Intrade’s prices imply that the odds of neither Romney nor Obama being elected is 4.8%. I say there is only one wild card in the deck, not two. What wild card is that? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/179 "2012-06-14T04:51:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What wild card is that? I figure there’s a Robert Kennedy event once every hundred years. That includes sudden illness, Ron Paul sleeper cells, and all manner of unknown unknowns. But… five and a half months of the election year have already passed. And even if something odd occurs in July, Romney or Obama will _still_ probably win the election. So the odds are probably well under 2%… but over 0.01%. Heh. Intrade says that the odds of Ron Paul winning are 1.4%… and Hillary gets 2.7%. That sounds high. Poor Joe Biden only gets 0.1%. That at least sounds defensible. ---
**Author:** ![Koxinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/4af34b/32.png) [@Koxinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koxinga)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2012, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024/180 "2012-06-14T06:14:57Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > I figure there’s a Robert Kennedy event once every hundred years . . . Heh. Intrade says that the odds of Ron Paul winning are 1.4%… and Hillary gets 2.7%. That sounds high. Heh indeed – it brings back some [memories of 2008](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=469178) . . . ETA: not that I suggest that’s what you’re implying. I just thought it was a slightly amusing coincidence. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-much-chance-obama-wont-be-the-next-us-president/609024.md?page=10)